Montana State beats Butler 51-24
Team pages: Butler · Montana State
Montana State beat Butler 51-24. Share this game
We had Montana State favored. It won.
Next: Butler beat Franklin 52-0, Sat Sep 12
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Montana State an 86% chance, and the closing betting line (Montana State was a 45.5-point favorite) put it above 99%.
Montana State led by 7 after the first quarter and by 27 at the half.
Favored the whole way: Montana State never fell below 98%.
Butler never had better than a 1% chance.
Montana State 51-24 Butler
Montana State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Butler 24-51 Montana StateButler lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Montana State -45.5), at 100% for Montana State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Montana State scored on 7 of its 10 drives; Butler on 5 of its 12.
Montana State’s drives are teal, Butler’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
Box score
Montana State 51, Butler 24
Butler covered +45.5 by 18.5. The total, 75, went over 59.5.
Butler leaders
- Passing Gabe Passini 14 of 19, 140 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Michael Dellumo 10 for 23 yds; Gabe Passini 8 for 22 yds
- Receiving Chet Yardley 3 for 55 yds; Nick Munson 3 for 32 yds, 1 TD
Montana State leaders
- Passing Justin Lamson 15 of 20, 239 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Adam Jones 13 for 77 yds, 1 TD; Colson Coon 7 for 29 yds
- Receiving Taco Dowler 5 for 97 yds, 1 TD; Rocky Lencioni 3 for 54 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games · 2025 season
Butler · 6-6
Rated 190th in our preseason ratings, 190th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 27-20 vs Valparaiso #269 of 667
won by 7 as a 16.5-point favorite
L 7-29 @ San Diego #148 of 667
lost by 22 as a 7.5-point underdog
L 30-31 @ Morehead State #248 of 667
lost by 1 as a 12.5-point favorite
L 19-24 vs Drake #147 of 667
lost by 5 as a 6.5-point underdog
W 23-17 @ Dayton #179 of 667
won by 6 as a 2.5-point underdog
L 25-31 vs Presbyterian #146 of 667
lost by 6 as a 10.5-point underdog
W 21-14 @ St. Thomas (MN) #197 of 667
won by 7 as a 6.5-point underdog
W 31-28 vs Marist #242 of 667
won by 3 as a 6.5-point favorite
L 24-38 @ Weber State #173 of 667
lost by 14 as a 16-point underdog
W 16-7 @ Hanover #436 of 667
W 37-27 vs Truman State #287 of 667
L 14-38 @ Northern Iowa #203 of 667
lost by 24 as a 16.5-point underdog
Last three games · 2025 season
Montana State · 14-2
Rated 84th in our preseason ratings, 84th now.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 35-34 vs Illinois State #81 of 667
won by 1 as a 10.5-point favorite
W 48-23 vs Montana #62 of 667
won by 25 as a 6.5-point favorite
W 44-28 vs Stephen F. Austin #81 of 667
won by 16 as a 15.5-point favorite
W 21-13 vs Yale #139 of 667
W 31-28 @ Montana #70 of 667
won by 3 as a 4.5-point favorite
W 38-17 vs UC Davis #113 of 667
won by 21 as a 19-point favorite
W 66-14 vs Weber State #220 of 667
won by 52 as a 28.5-point favorite
W 55-7 @ Northern Colorado #215 of 667
won by 48 as a 23.5-point favorite
W 34-17 @ Cal Poly #177 of 667
won by 17 as a 21.5-point favorite
W 48-14 vs Idaho State #188 of 667
won by 34 as a 22.5-point favorite
W 34-10 @ Northern Arizona #163 of 667
won by 24 as a 7.5-point favorite
W 57-3 vs Eastern Washington #191 of 667
won by 54 as a 21-point favorite
W 17-0 vs Mercyhurst #247 of 667
won by 17 as a 29.5-point favorite
W 41-7 vs San Diego #187 of 667
won by 34 as a 31-point favorite
L 24-30 vs South Dakota State #83 of 667
lost by 6 as a 3-point underdog
L 13-59 @ OregonTop 25 #4 of 667
lost by 46 as a 28.5-point underdog
Week by week
Montana State
- Wk 1Wat Utah Tech54-0
Butler
- Wk 1Wvs Georgetown College Kentucky27-23
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Montana State’s chances here.
Montana State favored by 45.5 · Total 59.5
How games like this usually go
Montana State by 45.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.
Home field
Montana State is worth +10.3 points (±15.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 100th percentile.
33% at home, 44% on the road against FBS opponents (1-2 home, 4-5 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +5.0 at home vs. away over 60 games — inside the ±8.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. 4,946 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 1,319 miles to get here.