Oregon13-2CFP #54With Immanuel Iheanacho (#16 nationally, IOL) arriving, Oregon's third straight top-5 class faces the challenge of rebuilding nearly everything after seven NFL exits and a rival, Washington, signed a top-13 class.
Oregon is the flashiest brand in football — Nike money, the deepest portal hauls, back-to-back Playoffs — and still has no national title to silence the room.
The take that all the money and flash still haven't bought the one thing that matters — that Oregon is a great brand and a very good team, not a champion. The fanbase wants the ring that ends the dist…
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · vs Boise State · Sat Sep 5 · 19:30 UTC
Oregon is the program that made fast look fashionable and then had to decide whether to take itself seriously.
With a #3 recruiting class and significant roster turnover, Oregon's 2026 season hinges on integrating new talent. The team's heavy reliance on transfers and freshmen introduces volatility but also potential for growth.
Autzen is too loud to sleep in. It just gets quieter.
the open questiondoes the recruiting haul translate on the field?
Dakorien Moore (#4 nationally) arrives as Oregon rebuilds nearly everything after seven NFL exits and just 1% of QB production returning under Dan Lanning.
Oregon enters 2026 rated No. 4 in 2025 SP+ (+25.9).
Dan Lanning's fourth season begins with a 13-2 record and a #5 AP finish, but Oregon must prove it can sustain its identity beyond flash, as the program's legacy hinges.
Jay Harris sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach, and his efficiency in competitive snaps sits below the position baseline -- the numbers lean on the opponent giving up.
Jordon Davison does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score, and he's also efficient in competitive snaps -- the production isn't just garbage-time padding.
Dan Lanning's fifth season opens with a 13-2 record and a #5 AP finish, but the program's uneasy fanbase questions if the coordinator-driven reshaping can sustain Oregon's national power status.
Da'Jaun Riggs: a closer signal screened this season.
Jamari Johnson is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Jeremiah McClellan is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Jeremiah McClellan: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
Jordon Davison: a short yardage signal screened this season.
With Immanuel Iheanacho (#16 nationally, IOL) arriving, Oregon's third straight top-5 class faces the challenge of rebuilding nearly everything after seven NFL exits and a rival, Washington, signed a top-13 class.
Dan Lanning's fifth season opens with a #5 talent rank, but a 13-2 record and uneasy fan belief signal tension over sustaining Oregon's national power identity.
Five-star IOL Immanuel Iheanacho commits 2026
Moala's gone and the portal added zero — Iheanacho is Lanning's direct answer to a starter-risk gap at IOL before the 2026 class even has a second name on it.
2027 OL Ismael Camara decommits from Oregon
A 2027 decommit stings differently when you're holding a top-5 class — Camara's exit chips at Oregon's OL depth pipeline right as Lanning's rebuilding the line after heavy draft attrition.
Xavier Sabb commits to Oregon
A 5-star wideout in the 2027 class while seven starters just left for the NFL — Lanning's rebuilding through the draft AND the future board at the same time, and that's a different kind of program confidence.
5-star CB commits to Oregon
Seven Ducks gone to the draft and Lanning keeps reloading the back end — a 5-star corner in a class already sitting fifth nationally is the kind of answer that makes rivals nervous about the Big Ten ceiling.
WR Blake Wong decommits from Oregon
Wong out of a top-5 class stings, but Lanning's bigger WR problem is keeping the passing attack cohesive after seven draft departures gutted the depth behind the starters — this one reopens a slot the Ducks thought they'd filled.
Top 3 commits
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
53rd percentile among FBS programs
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Oregon · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Oregon signed a top-5 recruiting class. It is a top-2 recruiting class in the Big Ten. Top 5 means the talent case is made. Whether the staff develops it is the open question. The bulls are loud — the coverage treats this class as a program-level statement.
The optimistic read: the class is real, the program is a destination again.
The 'rankings don't tell the whole story' counter -- development gaps, position holes still open.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 63 of 1001 board posts (6%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (514 posts): 20% positive · 47% neutral · 33% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Oregon enters 2026 rated No. 4 in 2025 SP+ (+25.9). It is bottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season. An efficiency model in the top 10 means three straight years of elite tape. The schedule decides whether the field keeps agreeing. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 261 of 1001 board posts (26%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (514 posts): 20% positive · 47% neutral · 33% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Four of five. The board favors this trend.
Opens Sep 5
vs Boise State · at home
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
CA leads the 2026 class with 9 commits. National footprint reaching 14 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
113 signees across 23 states, 2023-2026. CA leads the pull.
Top r/cfb community posts · last 12 months
66 of 66 AP voters have them ranked, final AP ballot (2025) — from #3, Blair Kerkhoff (Kansas City Star), to #6, Ralph Russo (The Athletic).
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, final AP ballot, 2025 — 66 voters tracked.
15 games with TV coverage: 8 national broadcast, 2 ESPN, 2 cable, 3 conference network
Kickoff windows: 2 noon, 8 afternoon, 5 primetime
62% recovery rate on their own fumbles — well above the ~51% league baseline.
5 of 8 own fumbles recovered themselves; 4 of 8 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
20% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — about the ~19% league average.
13 interceptions of 66 disrupted passes (53 deflected, 13 intercepted), 2025 only.
76 penalties committed, 85 drawn on opponents — ceding 123 yards of field position.
746 penalty yards committed vs. 623 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 12 corners
The split, staged
How Oregon fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
Loudest in the room this week real · by engagement
All 12 corners of the fanbase
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
Fan reads
The Ducks are adding key pieces to their roster after heavy NFL Draft losses.
Will Oregon secure all of its top recruiting targets before the summer ends?
The Duck uniform goes hard.r/ducks
National Championship 🏆 and Heisman Trophy! Undefeated season! Go Oregon Ducks 🦆YouTube · GoDucks
Oregon adds a key in-state recruit to help offset recent NFL Draft losses.
How will Christensen fit into Oregon's defensive plans?
Oregon is so much more than Dakorian Moore and Evan Stewart. Add in 5 Gatlin Bair, 5 Jalen Lott, the best TE in college football in Jamari Johnson, the best pass catching RB in the country in Dierre Hill, Jeremiah McClellan with the best hands on…YouTube · ESPN College Football
Oregon also is adding freshmen five stars in Jalen Lott and Gatlin Bair at the WR spot and Kendre Harrison at TE. There are some good groups on this list, but Oregon's has the highest upside.YouTube · ESPN College Football
~ our readOregon fans are down on the program, and they're backing it with about as much hard evidence as anyone.
✓ counted We read 514 posts from Oregon fans this week.
Fan mood across the 2025 season, both sides — our read
Shaded weeks show whose fanbase read warmer, our measure of what fans actually said, not a poll.
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
we fans think there's a very good chance that Oregon could be national champs.
Based on 2 comments from 2 posters across 2 threads · Jul 28, 2026 · via The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast
Dan Lanning Yet Again Shuts Down Rumors About Him Leaving Oregon! Via: cfbalerts On Instagram THE GRASS IS DAMN GREEN!!!
Happy Dan Lanning Day! 12/11 No bullshit personal drama, locked in with Oregon and is one of the Top 5 coaches in America.
Based on 2 comments from 2 posters across 2 threads · Oct 30, 2025–Dec 11, 2025 · via ducks
I knew there was going to be Moore of Dante. Hes going to lead Oregon to Moore victories and a Natty
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jun 25, 2026 · via GoDucks
Lanning is not on a hot seat for at-least another five years. And to be honest. As another Oregon fan. The dude is loved by all of us.
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 28, 2026 · via The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast
Dante Moore looked really comfortable out there, didn't try to force things and made smart throws. Can't wait to see how they open the playbook for him going forward.
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Aug 31, 2025 · via CFB
“This is the year. Dante Moore has improved so much under this new offense. He's focused. He's having fun. I wouldn't be surprised if he's a dark horse for the Heisman”— r/CFB
“They did this in the CSU game too, I don't understand the snap communications issues and false start issues in Husky stadium. I wrote out a script in the predictive model for this stuff and it basically has UW playing like they're on the road when they're at home this year for…”— r/CFB
“The owl pellets it takes to go for a 4th and forever instead of kicking a game tying FG is sensational. College football is the best.”— r/CFB
“Please no more playoff expansion or else bowls will be even more pointless. You'd have 9-3 teams quitting bowls because they didn't get in and then you'd have to get even more 4 and 5 win teams to go to bowls.”— r/CFB
“I'm glad that this didn't come down to the walk-on suddenly having to come on in the last play of the game throwing a duck. He couldn't have done any better, just a great play to break the pass up.”— r/CFB
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Fanbase Health Index · Oregon · high confidence
No financial relationship with any outlet listed. If we have a reporter wrong or missing, please let us know.
“IU and OSU, first a cage match in Bloomington, then conf champ and finally a rush for the natty. Oregon hasn't shown squat in last 2 years. They need to show up. Dante may be something now that DePo is in the show.”
Dante may be something now that DePo is in the show.
Great addition to the room. He’s going to take a big jump this year just like Dante did sitting behind Dillon. And we will need him ready to go in case Dante gets
Dante Moore plays like a Heisman trophy candidate then we will have a real shot. SCO DUCKS!!!
I feel like the Arch and Dante hype is a bit too much. They both are projected to be elite NFL players because
Dante and our entire starting line. It has allowed high profile players to stay in college
Dante Moore is the blindingly obvious choice so can’t use him as a dark horse. For a
✍️ Sunday Read: Why is Dante Moore still here? Instead of being a NY Jet with $50 million guaranteed, he's still
Dante Moore and the coaching staff be ready to show up when it matters most?" Our Man
Certain 2/3 loss sec teams bitching about playoff selection/seeding 😏
Is this bowl game starting at some point?
Oregon with its first big play, a 44-yard completion to the osu 22.
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.42 EPA/play | 5 | 15 | 296 / 412 | 71.8 | 3565 #12 FBS | 8.7 | 30 #6 FBS | 10 | 163.7 | 74.8 | 8.4 | 3.5 | |
Yards by week → Pocket Passer· Money-downBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. National Player-of-the-Year finalist — invited to the closing-night ceremony — trending, not yet confirmed. The rare part: he can push it deep — and he puts it wherever he wants, too 97 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt9.8 96th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Completion %75.4% 98th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like View Dante Moore's full player page | |||||||||||||
| 12 | 6 | 12 / 16 | 75 | 130 | 8.1 | 1 | 0 | 163.9 | 65.7 | — | — | ||
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed Merchant · +0.20 EPA/play | 6 | 12 | 129 | 829 #74 FBS | 6.4 | 6 | 68 | 11 | 11.7 | 10.1 | 10.9 | 6.3% (24/382) | |
Yards by week → Speed MerchantCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 48 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry6.9 93th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception5.2 bottom 23th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 88th percentile among FBS RBs, up from the 64th | |||||||||||||
| Speed Merchant · +0.19 EPA/play | — | 14 | 112 | 667 | 6.0 | 15 #13 FBS | 67 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 11.5 | 12.5 | — | |
Yards by week → Speed MerchantCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 48 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry6.6 87th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate13.4% 100th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jordon Davison's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Satellite Back · +0.59 EPA/play | 23 | 15 | 75 | 656 | 8.7 | 5 | 71 | 3 | 6.3 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → Satellite BackDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 50 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Receiving share17.6% 82th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / carry9.9 100th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Dierre Hill Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||||||
| Satellite Back · +0.17 EPA/play | 27 | 8 | 46 | 262 | 5.7 | 3 | 53 | 7.8 | 10.3 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → Satellite BackDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 50 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Receiving share19.3% 88th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / carry6.2 81th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jayden Limar's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Workhorse · -0.04 EPA/play | 22 | 9 | 42 | 151 | 3.6 | 2 | 16 | 9.2 | 7.0 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. 52 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight224 lb 88th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception14.8 98th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jay Harris's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.83 EPA/play | 4 | 15 | 43 | 719 | 16.7 | 6 #62 FBS | 64 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 14.7% (56/382) | |
Yards by week → Deep Threat· Money-downStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. lives on the sticks and moves the chains 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception17.0 83th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.8 90th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 32nd to 83rd percentile among FBS WRs | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.56 EPA/play | 18 | 14 | 51 | 560 | 11.0 | 8 #23 FBS | 30 | 10.7 | 11.3 | 17.8% (68/382) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception11.4 51th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume51 99th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readSustained Ascent: his CFB Index score shows two real climbs in a row — 0th to 72nd to 98th percentile among FBS TEs | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.65 EPA/play | 11 | 14 | 38 | 557 | 14.7 | 3 | 51 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 12.6% (48/382) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception15.5 70th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.7 73th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jeremiah McClellan's full player page | |||||||||||
| Move TE · +1.15 EPA/play | 9 | 14 | 32 | 510 | 15.9 | 3 | 56 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 9.7% (37/382) | |
Yards by week → Move TELined up out wide as often as inline. Creates mismatches downfield. 34 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception17.0 96th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)1.1 96th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 93rd percentile among FBS TEs, up from the 37th | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.60 EPA/play | 1 | 11 | 34 | 497 | 14.6 | 3 | 65 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 13.9% (53/382) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception13.5 64th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.6 65th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Dakorien Moore's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.44 EPA/play | 2 | 11 | 26 | 306 | 11.8 | 4 | 49 | 10 | 6.7 | 7.9% (30/382) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception12.6 bottom 42th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate15.4% 87th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Gary Bryant Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.44 EPA/play | 14 | 4 | 6 | 56 | 9.3 | 0 | 14 | 4.7 | 7.0 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.10 EPA/play | 17 | 6 | 10 | 25 | 2.5 | 0 | 8 | 1.5 | 6.9 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 1 | 14 | 50 | 19 | 6.5 | 1 | 5 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 14 of 21 games this season · junior View Bear Alexander's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 52 | 15 | 33 | 15 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 5 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. National watch / fringe All-American — on the edge of a 1st-team nod. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight330 lb 95th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score climbed from the 24th percentile to the 90th among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 50 | 10 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight336 lb 97th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tionne Gray's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 99 | 10 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight330 lb 95th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Terrance Green's full player page | |||||||
| 77 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 28 | 15 | 132 | 55 | 77 | 5.5 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. National watch / fringe All-American — on the edge of a 1st-team nod. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume132 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate4.2% bottom 23th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Bryce Boettcher's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 44 | 15 | 68 | 33 | 35 | 16 #14 FBS | 9.5 #15 FBS | 5 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The rare part: he lives in the backfield — and he covers, too 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate23.5% 98th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate7.4% 95th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like our readSustained Ascent: his CFB Index score shows two real climbs in a row — 45th to 87th to 100th percentile among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 54 | 15 | 57 | 28 | 29 | 4 | 0.5 | 7 | 2 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate12.3% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate0.9% bottom 29th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jerry Mixon's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 26 | 13 | 41 | 16 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume41 bottom 37th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score climbed from the 48th percentile to the 12th among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Thumper | 10 | 15 | 34 | 19 | 15 | 9.5 | 6 #74 FBS | 3 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. The rare part: he lives in the backfield — and he covers, too 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate27.9% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate8.8% 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like View Matayo Uiagalelei's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 9 | 14 | 32 | 13 | 19 | 4.5 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate14.1% 75th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume32 bottom 25th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Blake Purchase's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 29 | 9 | 20 | 6 | 14 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate12.5% 67th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume20 bottom 14th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ashton Porter's full player page | |||||||||
| 32 | 7 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 38 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 20 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 31 | 15 | 92 | 5 | 2 | 3.5 | 1 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. National watch / fringe All-American — on the edge of a 1st-team nod. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume92 99th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Dillon Thieneman's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 21 | 15 | 69 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt View Aaron Flowers's full player pageTackle volume69 90th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles | |||||||
| Rover | 4 | 14 | 42 | 7 | 3 #56 FBS | 3 | 1 |
Rover· Takeaway threatHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate16.7% 88th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Brandon Finney Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 22 | 15 | 39 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate15.4% 84th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jadon Canady's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 7 | 13 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate24.0% 98th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Ify Obidegwu's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 12 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid Nickel· Takeaway threatMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 7 of 21 games this season · sophomore our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 0th to 29th percentile among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 5 | 12 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate15.8% 85th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score climbed from the 90th percentile to the 27th among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 14 | 7 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 14th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Na'Eem Offord's full player page | |||||||
| 2 | 8 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| — | 9 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 24 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 36 | 15 | 19/24 | 79.2 | 51/51 | 108 | 51 |
| 97 | 6 | 0/1 | 0 | 16/16 | 16 | 0 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinner | 46 | 13 | 35 | 1470 | 42 | 58 | 17 | 3 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed Merchant · +0.20 EPA/play | 6 | 12 | 6 | 126 | 21 | 0 | 32 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.83 EPA/play | 4 | 15 | 7 | 143 | 20.4 | 1 | 85 |
| Possession Receiver · +0.44 EPA/play | 2 | 11 | 14 | 98 | 7 | 0 | 18 |
| Possession Receiver · +0.60 EPA/play | 1 | 11 | 4 | 44 | 11 | 0 | 19 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+23 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #5 | #91 | -28.5 | Montana State | W 59–13 122 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #7 | #89 | -28.5 | Oklahoma State | W 69–3 123 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #4 | #57 | -24.5 | @Northwestern | W 34–14 115 | 3-0 | 1-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #3 | #90 | -34.5 | Oregon State | W 41–7 125 | 4-0 | 1-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #2 | #6 | +4 | @Penn StateTop 10 win | W 30–24 138 | 5-0 | 2-0 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #2 | #11 | -6.5 | Indiana | L 20–30 128 | 5-1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #3 | #60 | -18.5 | @Rutgers | W 56–10 129 | 6-1 | 3-1 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #2 | #89 | -31 | Wisconsin | W 21–7 114 | 7-1 | 4-1 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #2 | #27 | -4.5 | @IowaTop 25 win | W 18–16 118 | 8-1 | 5-1 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #3 | #61 | -27 | Minnesota | W 42–13 120 | 9-1 | 6-1 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #3 | #16 | -11 | USCTop 25 win | W 42–27 143 | 10-1 | 7-1 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #3 | #16 | -7 | @Washington | W 26–14 134 | 11-1 | 8-1 |
| College Football Playoff | ||||||||
| 17 | Dec 21 | #3 | #14 | -20.5 | James Madison | W 51–34 | 12-1 | 8-1 |
| 18 | Jan 1 | #3 | #4 | +1 | Texas Tech (N) | W 23–0 | 13-1 | 8-1 |
| 20 | Jan 10 | #1 | #4 | +3 | Indiana (N) | L 22–56 | 13-2 | 8-2 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10 | Indiana | L 22–56 | — | — | — | -0.013 | 33.3% | 186.9% | Most explosive |
| Jan 1 | Texas Tech | W 23–0 | — | — | — | -0.123 | 30.1% | 123.5% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Dec 21 | James Madison | W 51–34 | — | — | — | +0.350 | 49.1% | 157.6% | |
| Nov 29 | @Washington | W 26–14 | 392 | 0 | 34:58 | +0.169 | 41.9% | 112.7% | |
| Nov 22 | USC | W 42–27 | 436 | 1 | 33:04 | +0.286 | 55.2% | 108.9% | |
| Nov 15 | Minnesota | W 42–13 | 510 | 1 | 29:36 | +0.530 | 60.3% | 125.2% | Blowout win |
| Nov 8 | @Iowa | W 18–16 | 373 | 1 | 26:40 | +0.110 | 45.8% | 94.9% | One-score win |
| Oct 25 | Wisconsin | W 21–7 | 335 | 0 | 34:57 | +0.141 | 42.6% | 136.1% | |
| Oct 18 | @Rutgers | W 56–10 | 750 | 3 | 27:53 | +0.800 | 61.0% | 169.6% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 11 | Indiana | L 20–30 | 267 | 2 | 26:50 | +0.083 | 36.1% | 117.8% | |
| Sep 27 | @Penn State | W 30–24 | 424 | 0 | 33:52 | +0.262 | 41.8% | 117.0% | One-score win |
| Sep 20 | Oregon State | W 41–7 | 585 | 0 | 36:55 | +0.462 | 52.6% | 140.9% | Blowout win |
| Sep 13 | @Northwestern | W 34–14 | 373 | 1 | 27:42 | +0.303 | 50.0% | 141.6% | |
| Sep 6 | Oklahoma State | W 69–3 | 631 | 0 | 28:41 | +0.714 | 55.7% | 167.4% | Best defensive stand |
| Aug 30 | Montana State | W 59–13 | 506 | 0 | 30:08 | +0.633 | 64.1% | 119.5% | Best success rate |
| Season average (15 games) | 465 | 0.8 | +0.314 | 48.0% | 134.6% | ||||
Oregon fields an elite offense behind an elite, bend-don't-break defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
91st percentile quality, 10th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 40th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 41st — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
93rd percentile success on standard downs, 55th on passing downs — a 38-point gap between the two.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 97th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 72nd — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.31; 94th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.09. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.63 raw vs. 0.06 adjusted.
Oregon reads strongest in epa / play (top 7%) and rushing epa (top 9%); the crux lives in rushing epa allowed, where Oregon sits at the 62nd percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · Oregon
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Oregon · 2018-present
94% home win rate vs 73% on the road. margin runs +10.7 better at home. Autzen Stadium seats 54,000, averaging 106% full (57,155 attendance, 28 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Noah Whittington and Jordon Davison split the carries (120/228 vs 108/228) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Jordon Davison gets the goal line.
Inside-the-5 share, week by week (weeks both players actually played the role)
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Malik Benson (WR) and Kenyon Sadiq (TE) split the targets (53/116 vs 63/116) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Malik Benson produces in bigger chunks.
What changed
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved down 13 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Play-calling barely moved on the change — every rate held within a few points.
Season by season
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, Oregon’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (61.0% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 181-play sample) — mid-pack, 7 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
Historical echo
Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
61°F average kickoff temp; 6% of games had measurable precipitation; 7 mph average wind.
Based on 78 home games with weather data.
2 CFP appearances, 1 title game across 12 seasons — the era the program argued for.
Oregon's 2014–2025 record is 116-39 with 2 CFP appearances. The era has written the program's modern identity into the CFP field — not always from the inside of a title game, but into the room.
Week-by-week rivalry heat isn't tracked yet for this matchup — check back as the 2026-27 season approaches and real fan-intel signal accumulates.
Who's more worked up right now
Cross-fanbase rivalry sentiment for this matchup hasn't been measured yet this week — both sides show as neutral until real signal comes in.
THE LAST 5 · year-by-year
All-Time Record
since 1916 · 108 seasons · .563 win rate
Oregon went 11-1, earned a Playoff bid as the No. 5 seed, and got routed 56-22 by Indiana — a school with 130 years of football irrelevance — in the Peach Bowl semifinal. The flashiest program in the sport was blown out by a basketball school. The title drought is now older than every player on the roster.
The Nike program. That's the shorthand, the identifier, the two-word summary that contains both the achievement and the argument. Phil Knight's money funded facilities that redefined the sport's amenity standard, uniform combinations that became a weekly event, and the Chip Kelly Blur offense that made Oregon a national power and shaped how modern college football is played. Marcus Mariota won the Heisman in 2014. The Ducks reached two national championship games and won neither. Dan Lanning has now led Oregon to back-to-back Playoff appearances, a Big Ten title in 2024, and a top-five ranking entering 2026. The brand is not the question.
The question is the ring. Oregon signed Dylan Raiola out of the transfer portal this winter — the Nebraska quarterback who was called the crown jewel of the portal cycle — and he is expected to redshirt in 2026 behind returning starter Dante Moore while the Ducks run it back with the deepest portal haul in the Big Ten. The Peach Bowl rout lands differently than a close loss: Indiana didn't just beat Oregon, it outphysicaled a brand built on being the future. Lanning's answer has been to go get more talent.
The 2026 season opens with Oregon ranked third nationally, Dante Moore healthy, and an Autzen Stadium crowd that has watched back-to-back Playoff bids and still hasn't seen the one result that would settle the room. The internal argument — arrived vs. still-almost — won't be resolved by a regular-season title. It will be resolved, if it's resolved this year, somewhere in January, by a scoreboard that disagrees with the one from Atlanta.
Lanning's Oregon runs a fast, tempo-forward Big Ten offense layered over the Blur lineage Kelly established — RPO elements, schemed receiver alignments, and a portal-stocked skill corps that refreshes annually. Autzen Stadium, 54,000 capacity but among the loudest per-seat venues in the sport, provides a home-field edge that travel teams routinely underestimate. The program recruits nationally and uses Division Street NIL funding to compete with any program in the country for premier portal talent.
Oregon 2016–2025. Climbing +1.4 rungs across the last 10 seasons. Slope +0.27 rungs / year — moving up the prestige scale.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 13-2 · CFP #5 / AP #5
Oregon: Top 5 / CFP-contender. A real championship case is on the table.
Big Ten Standing · 2025
Oregon is 3rd in the Big Ten at 8-2. 2 teams above — that's the direct path to the title game.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Indiana | 11-0 |
| 2 | Ohio State | 9-1 |
| 3 | Oregon | 8-2 |
| 4 | Michigan | 7-2 |
| 5 | USC | 7-2 |
| 6 | Iowa | 6-3 |
| 7 | Illinois | 5-4 |
| 8 | Minnesota | 5-4 |
| 9 | Washington | 5-4 |
| 10 | Nebraska | 4-5 |
| 11 | Northwestern | 4-5 |
| 12 | Penn State | 3-6 |
| 13 | UCLA | 3-6 |
| 14 | Rutgers | 2-7 |
| 15 | Wisconsin | 2-7 |
| 16 | Maryland | 1-8 |
| 17 | Michigan State | 1-8 |
| 18 | Purdue | 0-9 |
Coaching Era · Oregon
Dan Lanning has held the program for 5 seasons — the era is established.
The rituals that anchor a Saturday in this program's world.
since 1947 (mascot); 2008 (motorcycle entrance)
The Duck — based on Disney's Donald Duck via a 1947 handshake agreement Phil Knight finally formalized — rides a Harley onto the field. After every touchdown, the Duck does pushups equal to the team's running point total. Knee surgeries are common. The mascot is licensed Disney IP; the contract is one of college sports' weirder artifacts.
since 2003
Nike Innovation Kitchen designs Oregon's uniforms; Phil Knight (Nike founder, Oregon alum) funds the program. The combinations are revealed Thursday before each game on social media — itself a ritual. 'What are the Ducks wearing this week?' is part of national Saturday discourse. Recruiting tool, brand statement, weekly aesthetic event.
since 1916
Written by DeWitt Gilbert in 1916. The 'Glory, glory to Oregon!' chorus is the recognizable hook. The Pride of the Pacific band plays it constantly. Less universally famous than Hail to the Victors or Boomer Sooner but central to Autzen's audio identity.
since 2007
Originally the basketball student section; expanded to football. Coordinated chants, costume themes, and a yellow/green visual identity that turns Autzen's north end into a single dense block. Less codified than Penn State's White Out but more aesthetically wild — themed games (camo, Hawaiian, etc.) are normal.
since 1990s
Autzen's bowl design and 54,000-capacity intimacy produce sustained decibel readings rivaling 100,000-seat stadiums. The 2003 USC game registered 127.2dB. The crowd's coordinated noise during opposing offensive possessions is part of the program's home-field advantage; recruits get sold on this specifically.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
Chip Kelly's Blur reaches the BCS National Championship
Oregon's second title-game appearance and its only Heisman
2025
Routed by eventual champion Indiana in the Peach Bowl semifinal
Wound
Moment of the Year · Oregon · 2025
Week 18 of 2025. Beat a top-4 opponent on the road.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2025 — loss 56-22 (away). Last 5 postseason: 3-2.
NFL Draft Pipeline
2022–202632 picks last 5 cycles, including 7 in round 1. Top recruit destination + development pipeline.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Hired for 2026: Drew Mehringer — not yet reflected in on-field data.
Hired for 2026: Chris Hampton — not yet reflected in on-field data.
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
Oregon · Next-Season Outcome Band
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Fanbase Health Index · Oregon · high confidence
2025 stat leaders
How They Play · 2025
Most Similar Programs · Oregon
Season Standing · 2025 · 13-2 · CFP #5 / AP #5
Coaching Era · Oregon
Moment of the Year · Oregon · 2025
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
NFL Draft Pipeline