Oregon 17-14 Nebraska (Oct 17, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Nebraska · Oregon

Nebraska5-214

Oregon4-217Final

Sat, Oct 17 · Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Ore. · Crowd 58,391

No. 25 Oregon beat Nebraska 17-14.

We had Oregon favored. It won.

Next: Nebraska vs Washington, Sat Oct 31

Next: Oregon at Illinois, Sat Oct 24 · 3:00 PM ET · Oregon favored by 9.5

Top comment in the game thread

How tf did that even get called a TD in the first place

Q4 0:38 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 17

How it swung

The turning point: Raiola 4-yd TD pass to Johnson, Oregon goes ahead 17-14 (Q4, 0:28). Oregon went from 48% to 98% to win. Fans right then: “How tf did that even get called a TD in the first place” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Oregon a 60% chance, and the closing betting line (Oregon was a 6.5-point favorite) put it at 70%.

Down to 20% in the fourth quarter, Oregon came back to win.

Up to 80% in the fourth quarter, then Nebraska lost it.

FinalOregon 17-14 NebraskaOregon wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 0:04Colandrea 17-yd TD pass to Gilmer, Nebraska goes ahead 7-0Oregon 63% → 44% (−19)
2Q4 0:28Raiola 4-yd TD pass to Johnson, Oregon goes ahead 17-14Oregon 48% → 98% (+50)

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 0:04Colandrea 17-yd TD pass to Gilmer, Nebraska goes ahead 7-0Nebraska 37% → 56% (+19)
2Q4 0:28Raiola 4-yd TD pass to Johnson, Oregon goes ahead 17-14Nebraska 52% → 2% (−50)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 0:25The MAP was displayed on the jumbotron.Standing and removing my hat for the true national anthem, MAPr/CFB game thread
Q2 0:04Officials uphold Gilmer touchdown despite fans arguing he was out of boundsAre the replay officials drunk?r/CFB game threadOh my. What a bad set of reviews for Oregon so far today. That is roughr/CFB game thread
Q4 0:38Fans condemn the touchdown call on Raiola's pass to JohnsonQuoted at the top of the page.That’s the worst call I’ve ever seen in my life. Fire that mfr/CFB game thread

Oregon’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Oregon -6.5), at 73% for Oregon (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Oregon or Nebraska flair (3,021 and 3,008); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Oregon’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Oregon scored on 4 of its 14 drives; Nebraska on 2 of its 14.

Oregon’s drives are teal, Nebraska’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Nebraska’s side

Nebraska’s best moment: Colandrea 17-yd TD pass to Gilmer, Nebraska goes ahead 7-0 (Q2 0:04). It lifted Nebraska’s win chance by 19 points.

How Nebraska fans took it: “Live laugh toaster bath” r/CFB game thread

“The best Nebraska can do is tie it? This announcer is so bad lol”

An Oregon fan

How fans reacted

Steady

The final stretch is when fans got loud.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was busy.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Oregon fans

lanning“Lanning said Thomas got going a little bit? lol we had 50 total first half yards”

yards““This is going to be a completely different offense” as he checks it down to the rb 10 yards behind the LOS”

line“This D line is championship level, special teams is good too, everything else is a buns”

worse“lol this is comical, almost worse than last week, sure we don’t have 6 turnovers but are we trying to win?”

Nebraska fans

rhule“Would’ve been nice to have a timeout there. Rhule might just be the dumbest SOB alive”

punts“Against all odds, Raiola has powered "scores" into second place. Punts: 15 Scores: 5 Turnovers: 4”

timeout“Would’ve been nice to have a timeout there. Rhule might just be the dumbest SOB alive”

blindside“To be fair that is technically a blindside block because Brock Thomas has been playing blind all night”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: ball, call, now, don.

What it cost

Nebraska’s chance to make the playoff fell from 9% to 5%.

Make the playoff

Nebraska · lost9% → ▼5%

Oregon · won22% → ▲26%

Win the conference

Nebraska · lost3% → ▼1%

Oregon · won9% → ▲11%

Win the title

Nebraska · lost0% → 0%

Oregon · won2% → ▲3%

Before the game (October 17, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Nebraska plays vs Washington on Sat Oct 31 with a 5% chance to make the playoff. Oregon plays at Illinois on Sat Oct 24 with a 26% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Oregon 17, Nebraska 14

Nebraska covered +6.5 by 3.5. The total, 31, stayed under 50.5.

Team totals	Nebraska	Oregon
Total yards	242	242
Passing	18 of 34, 164 yds	20 of 38, 113 yds
Rushing	33 for 78 yds	38 for 129 yds
First downs	14	15
Third down	7 of 17	3 of 17
Fourth down	0 of 1	3 of 3
Turnovers	1	2
Penalties	6 for 55 yds	4 for 35 yds
Time of possession	29:37	30:23

Nebraska leaders

Passing Anthony Colandrea 18 of 33, 164 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Anthony Colandrea 13 for 38 yds, 1 TD; Isaiah Mozee 4 for 28 yds
Receiving Kwazi Gilmer 6 for 74 yds, 1 TD; Jacory Barney Jr. 2 for 37 yds

Oregon leaders

Passing Dylan Raiola 11 of 18, 59 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Dierre Hill Jr. 14 for 67 yds; Brandon Smith 6 for 29 yds
Receiving Dakorien Moore 7 for 36 yds; Jamari Johnson 5 for 35 yds, 1 TD

No rain and calm

51° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 9 mph from the north-northwest, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 13

The usual here around this date is 56°, with about 7 in 10 games between 47° and 64°.

October game-day temperatures at Autzen Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 0:28 left11:38 p.m.

Nebraska 14, Oregon 17 · Oregon 98% to win

no rain · wind 8 mph from the north-northwest, mostly at an angle to the field · 48°

Raiola 4-yd TD pass to Johnson, Oregon goes ahead 17-14

Measured at Eugene/mahlon Sweet airport, 8.5 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Nebraska · 5-1

Rated 40th in our preseason ratings, 17th now, up 23 spots.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 17-20 vs IndianaTop 25 #4 of 668

lost by 3 as a 9.5-point underdog

W 48-23 vs Maryland #97 of 668

won by 25 as a 15.5-point favorite

W 31-13 @ Michigan State #125 of 668

won by 18 as a 6-point favorite

W 34-7 vs North Dakota #110 of 668

won by 27 as a 27.5-point favorite

W 56-7 vs Bowling Green #135 of 668

won by 49 as a 30.5-point favorite

W 49-21 vs Ohio #48 of 668

won by 28 as a 23.5-point favorite

Last three games

Oregon · 3-2

Rated 3rd in our preseason ratings, 8th now.

2-1 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

L 15-17 vs UCLATop 25 #21 of 668

lost by 2 as a 10-point favorite

W 41-27 @ USCTop 25 #25 of 668

won by 14 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 84-0 vs Portland State #244 of 668

won by 84 as a 58.5-point favorite

L 31-39 @ Oklahoma StateTop 25 #231 of 668

lost by 8 as a 24.5-point favorite

W 34-27 vs Boise StateTop 25 #29 of 668

won by 7 as a 24.5-point favorite

Week by week

Oregon

Wk 1Wvs Boise State34-27
Wk 2Lat Oklahoma State31-39
Wk 3Wvs Portland State84-0
Wk 4Wat USC41-27
Wk 6Lvs UCLA15-17

Nebraska

Wk 2Wvs Bowling Green56-7
Wk 3Wvs North Dakota34-7
Wk 4Wat Michigan State31-13
Wk 5Wvs Maryland48-23
Wk 6Lvs Indiana17-20

Power rating by week

Oregon is rated 3.6 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Nebraska’s explosive plays against Oregon, 63 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Nebraska’s explosive plays against Oregon’s defense
Nebraska offense, 93rd percentile · Oregon defense, 30th
Oregon’s success rate against Nebraska’s defense
Oregon offense, 37th percentile · Nebraska defense, 86th
Oregon’s passing EPA against Nebraska’s defense
Oregon offense, 50th percentile · Nebraska defense, 92nd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

NebraskaOregon

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Nebraska leads the series 6-2

8 meetings since 1952 · Oregon won the last meeting

2017Oregon 42-35
2016Nebraska 35-32
1986Nebraska 48-14
1985Nebraska 63-0
1974Nebraska 61-7

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Nebraska fans are in a better mood than Oregon fans (45th vs 8th among FBS fanbases), even with Oregon favored.

Oregon favored by 6.5 · Total 50.5

How games like this usually go

Oregon by 6.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 15 points toward Nebraska.

The total fell 1 point.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Oregon is worth +3.3 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 34th percentile.

91% at home, 72% on the road against FBS opponents (43-4 home, 29-11 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.1 at home vs. away over 94 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,357 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Oregon11th1-1
Nebraska8th2-1

Full Big Ten standings

No. 25 Oregon beats Nebraska 17-14