No. 2 Oregon beats Boise State 34-27
Team pages: Boise State · Oregon
No. 2 Oregon beat Boise State 34-27. Share this game
We had Oregon favored. It won.
Top comment in the game thread
The Boise State v UMass national chanpionship game is gonna be bonkers
How it swung
The turning point: Moore 27-yd TD pass to Johnson, cuts it to 17-14 (Q2, 0:19). Oregon went from 69% to 85% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Oregon an 88% chance, and the closing betting line (Oregon was a 24.5-point favorite) put it at 98%.
Favored the whole way: Oregon never fell below 63%.
Boise State led by 10 but, as a 24.5-point underdog, never had better than a 36% chance.
Oregon · Q3 5:36Oregon 34-27 Boise State
Oregon wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Boise State 27-34 OregonBoise State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 0:19Moore 27-yd TD pass to Johnson, cuts it to 17-14Oregon 69% → 85% (+16)
- 2Q4 8:45Moore 36-yd field goal, ties it 27-27Oregon 88% → 77% (−11)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 0:19Moore 27-yd TD pass to Johnson, cuts it to 17-14Boise State 31% → 15% (−16)
- 2Q4 8:45Moore 36-yd field goal, ties it 27-27Boise State 12% → 23% (+11)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q2 10:24Boise State recovers muffed punt, scores touchdown, fans argue no interference call
Sir a second Boise state Touchdown has hit the end zone..
r/CFB game thread - Q2 10:09Oregon turns the ball over on downs after failing to convert fourth down
Oregon hasn’t made a single fourth down conversion all season
r/CFB game thread - Q2 2:48Fans mock Oregon's performance and Dante Moore's play as Boise State leads 17-7Quoted at the top of the page.
Every year people act like it's shocking that Boise State is good. They are as perennial as any team in college football. Why do they always have to win 9 games to crack the top…
r/CFB game thread - Q3 1:20Madsen passes to Wagner for a touchdown, tying the game 24-24
Regardless of the outcome of this game I am so impressed with our fight today. 0 quit in this team
r/CFB game thread - Q4 2:32Boise State fans celebrate Jones' catch and demand a penalty on Finney
Any catch like that where there’s an obvious penalty should be like an And 1. Tack the 15 on after.
r/CFB game thread - Q4 2:32Fans argue Oregon's club hand is illegal and refs missed pass interference
They let two DPIs and a roughing call go on
r/CFB game threadYou needed a literal club and the removal of PI calls to win this game. The showboatings embarrassing
r/CFB game thread
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Oregon -24.5), at 96% for Oregon (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Oregon or Boise State flair (1,928 and 1,623); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Oregon’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 8:37Madsen 13-yd TD pass to BatesBoise State goes ahead 6-0Q1, 8:37 · Oregon 0, Boise State 60-6score after the play0-6score after the play▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q2, 11:17Davison 1-yd TD runties it 7-7Q2, 11:17 · Oregon 7, Boise State 7▲3%Oregon’s chance to win, 89% to 92%▲3%Oregon’s chance to win, 89% to 92%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q2, 10:14Madsen 38-yd TD pass to GainesBoise State goes ahead 14-7Q2, 10:14 · Oregon 7, Boise State 14▼9%Oregon’s chance to win, 92% to 83%▼9%Oregon’s chance to win, 92% to 83%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q2, 0:19Moore 27-yd TD pass to Johnsoncuts it to 17-14Q2, 0:19 · Oregon 14, Boise State 17▲16%Oregon’s chance to win, 69% to 85%▲16%Oregon’s chance to win, 69% to 85%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q3, 1:20Madsen 7-yd TD pass to Wagnerties it 24-24Q3, 1:20 · Oregon 24, Boise State 24▼8%Oregon’s chance to win, 94% to 86%▼8%Oregon’s chance to win, 94% to 86%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q4, 7:51Moore 62-yd TD pass to MooreQ4, 7:51 · Oregon 34, Boise State 2734-27score after the play34-27score after the play▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q4, 8:45Madsen sacked for a 8-yd lossQ4, 8:45 · Oregon 34, Boise State 2734-27score after the play34-27score after the play▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q4, 5:41Moore sacked for a 7-yd lossQ4, 5:41 · Oregon 34, Boise State 2734-27score after the play34-27score after the play▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
Every drive
Oregon scored on 7 of its 13 drives; Boise State on 5 of its 13.
Oregon’s drives are teal, Boise State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Boise State’s side
Boise State’s best moment: Moore 36-yd field goal, ties it 27-27 (Q4 8:45). It lifted Boise State’s win chance by 11 points.
How Boise State fans took it: “Once again, we lost to the ugly ducklings by a single score and it was almost entirely due to the decision to pass rather than eat up clock on the ground when…” r/CFB game thread
“my butt clench has relaxed 40%”
How fans reacted
Quiet
Fans were at their loudest with the game on the line.
The jump was quiet; the crowd was loud.
Two crowds, one game
The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.
Oregon fans
interference“You mean like the ones they were wearing during the kick catch interference? 👍🏼”
ball“We coulda scheduled ball state for a tune up, beat a playoff team instead - see you in November!”
line“Has a single pass behind the line of scrimmage worked? No. It hasn't. Stop doing that!”
refs“Not only is it acceptable to call pi there, it legit was lmao just call it. Refs continue to be just so good at their jobs”
Boise State fans
madsen“Madsen doesn’t look like a football player lol well neither did Kellen Moore…”
tackling“I can't believe how much better our tackling has been so far. We've just about eliminated Oregon's YAC ability”
please“Please don’t turn into an ole miss situation. I had so much hope going into that fourth quarter before they scored 28 on us”
tackle“22 let him get wide open and then knocked 4 out of any chance of making a tackle. For those who may not be aware, that is in fact: bad.”
Both sets of fans kept coming back to: now, back, run, call.
What it cost
Boise State’s chance to make the playoff fell from 10% to 9%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (September 4, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Oregon 34, Boise State 27
Boise State covered +24.5 by 17.5. The total, 61, went over 53.5.
| Team totals | Boise State | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 274 | 497 |
| Passing | 15 of 29, 181 yds | 28 of 38, 378 yds |
| Rushing | 36 for 93 yds | 25 for 119 yds |
| First downs | 18 | 18 |
| Third down | 4 of 15 | 4 of 12 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 3 | 0 of 3 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Penalties | 3 for 25 yds | 10 for 90 yds |
| Time of possession | 31:54 | 28:06 |
Boise State leaders
- Passing Maddux Madsen 15 of 29, 181 yds, 3 TD
- Rushing Dylan Riley 17 for 50 yds; Sire Gaines 11 for 39 yds
- Receiving Rasean Jones 4 for 76 yds; Sire Gaines 2 for 44 yds, 1 TD
Oregon leaders
- Passing Dante Moore 28 of 37, 378 yds, 3 TD
- Rushing Jordon Davison 12 for 90 yds, 1 TD; Dierre Hill Jr. 10 for 36 yds
- Receiving Jeremiah McClellan 6 for 150 yds, 1 TD; Dakorien Moore 6 for 93 yds, 1 TD
No rain and calm
67° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 4 mph from the southwest, gusts to 12
The usual here around this date is 72°, with about 7 in 10 games between 66° and 78°.
September game-day temperatures at Autzen Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Jump to
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Eugene/mahlon Sweet airport, 8.5 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games · 2025 season
Boise State · 9-5
Rated 37th in our preseason ratings.
L 10-38 @ WashingtonTop 25 #12 of 667
lost by 28 as a 10-point underdog
W 38-21 vs UNLV #57 of 667
won by 17 as a 3.5-point favorite
W 25-24 @ Utah State #90 of 667
won by 1 as a 1.5-point favorite
W 49-21 vs Colorado State #185 of 667
won by 28 as a 17.5-point favorite
L 7-17 @ San Diego State #62 of 667
lost by 10 as a 2.5-point underdog
L 7-30 vs Fresno State #108 of 667
lost by 23 as a 17.5-point favorite
W 24-3 @ Nevada #182 of 667
won by 21 as a 20.5-point favorite
W 56-31 vs UNLV #88 of 667
won by 25 as a 13.5-point favorite
W 41-25 vs New Mexico #107 of 667
won by 16 as a 15.5-point favorite
L 7-28 @ Notre DameTop 25 #3 of 667
lost by 21 as a 21.5-point underdog
W 47-14 vs App State #129 of 667
won by 33 as a 17.5-point favorite
W 49-37 @ Air Force #143 of 667
won by 12 as an 11.5-point favorite
W 51-14 vs Eastern Washington #180 of 667
won by 37 as a 33.5-point favorite
L 7-34 @ South FloridaTop 25 #56 of 667
lost by 27 as a 5.5-point favorite
Last three games · 2025 season
Oregon · 13-2
Rated 3rd in our preseason ratings.
L 22-56 @ IndianaTop 25 #1 of 667
lost by 34 as a 3-point underdog
W 23-0 @ Texas TechTop 25 #8 of 667
won by 23 as a 1.5-point underdog
W 51-34 vs James MadisonTop 25 #22 of 667
won by 17 as a 20.5-point favorite
W 26-14 @ WashingtonTop 25 #20 of 667
won by 12 as a 6.5-point favorite
W 42-27 vs USCTop 25 #19 of 667
won by 15 as a 12.5-point favorite
W 42-13 vs Minnesota #71 of 667
won by 29 as a 26.5-point favorite
W 18-16 @ IowaTop 25 #26 of 667
won by 2 as a 4.5-point favorite
W 21-7 vs Wisconsin #73 of 667
won by 14 as a 31.5-point favorite
W 56-10 @ Rutgers #78 of 667
won by 46 as an 18.5-point favorite
L 20-30 vs IndianaTop 25 #8 of 667
lost by 10 as a 7.5-point favorite
W 30-24 @ Penn StateTop 25 #10 of 667
won by 6 as a 4.5-point underdog
W 41-7 vs Oregon State #92 of 667
won by 34 as a 34.5-point favorite
W 34-14 @ Northwestern #69 of 667
won by 20 as a 24.5-point favorite
W 69-3 vs Oklahoma State #74 of 667
won by 66 as a 28.5-point favorite
W 59-13 vs Montana State #84 of 667
won by 46 as a 28.5-point favorite
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Oregon’s explosive plays against Boise State, 47 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Oregon’s explosive plays against Boise State’s defense
Oregon offense, 47th percentile · Boise State defense, 0th
Oregon’s success rate against Boise State’s defense
Oregon offense, 37th percentile · Boise State defense, 73rd
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Boise State leads the series 3-1
4 meetings since 2008 · Oregon won the last meeting
- 2024Oregon 37-34
- 2017 · neutral siteBoise State 38-28
- 2009Boise State 19-8
- 2008Boise State 37-32
Each line is Oregon’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Oregon fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (39th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
- Model · 88%
- Line · 98%
- Oregon fans · 39th
- Boise State fans · 42nd
Oregon favored by 24.5 · Total 53.5
How games like this usually go
Oregon by 24.5: the game against the usual path
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.
The market
The books’ cut: 3.7%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Mild and dry. Feels like 69° at kickoff.
Boise State at Oregon · Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026 · Autzen Stadium, Eugene
- 69°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 100weather score, Ideal
At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Kickoff times that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 3 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed.
- 12:30 pm: 100, Ideal (this game)
- 6:30 pm: 100, Ideal
- 7:30 pm: 100, Ideal
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Oregon is worth +3.3 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 34th percentile.
91% at home, 72% on the road against FBS opponents (43-4 home, 29-11 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.1 at home vs. away over 94 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 344 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Oregon 37, Boise State 34Sep 7, 2024