Boise State
Oregon #2
7:30 PM · Autzen Stadium

Boise State at Oregon (#2) — Oregon (#2) is favored by 25.

What’s at stake

Make the CFP field

Oregon · 72%72% → ▲74% if win72% → ▼59% if loss
Boise State · 10%10% → ▲17% if win10% → ▼9% if loss

Oregon projected #4 seed

Win the conference

Oregon · 29%29% → ▲29% if win29% → ▼27% if loss
Boise State · 22%22% → ▲24% if win22% → ▼22% if loss

Win it all

Oregon · 11%11% → ▲11% if win11% → ▼9% if loss
Boise State · 0%0% → ▲0% if win0% → ▼0% if loss

CFP odds as of September 5, 2026

See this week’s biggest postseason implications ›

The series

Boise State leads the series 3-1

4 meetings since 2008 · Oregon won the last meeting

  • 2024Oregon 37–34
  • 2017 · neutral siteBoise State 38–28
  • 2009Boise State 19–8
  • 2008Boise State 37–32

Face-off

What each fanbase carries into this one.

Boise State

The chip · vs the blue bloods

Broncos fans note the giants schedule them only when they have to — and still rank them behind teams they'd beat.

What this game touches

The closed door. The 2006 team beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl and finished as the country's only undefeated team, ranked No. 5 — and the old system had no lane for a team like Boise to play for a title.

Oregon

The chip · vs the national media

The take that all the money and flash still haven't bought the one thing that matters — that Oregon is a great brand and a very good team, not a champion. The fanbase wants the ring that ends the distinction.

What this game touches

The 56-22 semifinal — the brand humbled by a basketball school. Oregon made the Playoff for the second straight year in 2025 (11-1, the #5 seed) and got routed 56-22 by eventual champion Indiana in the Peach Bowl semifinal — the flashiest program in the sport blown out by a school that had never mattered, the title drought extended again.

Best players

Oregon

  • Dante Moore (QB) · 2025: 3,565 passing yards — Heisman odds: 4th (+950)
  • Aaron Flowers (DB) · 2025: 69 tackles
  • Teitum Tuioti (LB) · 2025: 68 tackles

Boise State

  • Marco Notarainni (LB) · 2025: 77 tackles
  • Dylan Riley (RB) · 2025: 1,125 rushing yards — Heisman odds: 118th (+50000)
  • Boen Phelps (LB) · 2025: 66 tackles

What to watch

The total has moved down 2.0 points since opening (53.5 → 51.5).

The line, and the room

Oregon fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (36th percentile) — the mood matches the numbers.

  • Model · 88%
  • Market · 98%
  • Oregon fans · 36th
  • Boise State fans · 23rd

Home −25 · O/U 51.5

Conditions

65°F · 3 mph wind · Fair

Home-field advantage: Strong

Oregon is 94% at home, 74% on the road since 2018 (48-3 home, 28-10 away).