3identity shift
Fresno State: the fanbase's identity shifting.
Matt Entz begins his tenure at Fresno State with a 9-4 record, anchoring a program whose identity hinges on its legacy and the challenge of sustaining its recent success.
Fresno State9-4Latest
Cautious optimism is building around Fresno State.
belief cooled ↓ 13.0vs prior week
Fanbase belief
Leaning up
53/100 · 72 mentions
~ our readGrounding
backed by facts
10% cite a stat · 7% typical ✓ counted
~ our readVolatility
Chaotic
σ 22 pts
~ our readThe model
#64
CFB Zeitgeist · +1.5
✓ measured3Hope-Doping·Offseason
Fresno State is the Valley program whose whole identity is a dare — Anyone, Anytime, Anywhere — and it just answered a down stretch with a nine-win bowl-winning season and a ticket to the Pac-12.
Title DroughtSince 2018 · 7 yrs
Bulldog fans built a whole ethos around it: Fresno would drive into anybody's stadium and dare the name-brand programs to schedule them back. They say the giants ducked the Valley for years, and the P…
offseason · quiet
Roster Reload - Fresno State
2026 snapshot - 2026-08-06Returning Production17%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#90 nationally247 composite 586.8
Portal Additions13Primary repair: S
Portal Losses10Primary pressure: QB
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#70Depth class
EDGEin 3 - Micah Mosleyout 3 - Damarrion WhiteEven
Sin 3 - Croix Stewartout 2 - RL MillerEven
QBin 1 - Khristian Martinout 2 - Carson ConklinDowngrade
current room: 192 lbs avg (2025 roster)
WRin 1 - Darrian Andersonout 1 - Josiah AyonEven
current room: 188 lbs avg (2025 roster)
TEin 1 - Jake Applegetout 1 - Richie AndersonEven
current room: 250 lbs avg (2025 roster)
OTin 1 - Oscar Weigelout 0Upgrade
Belief EKG
WinLoss · hover for scorePrior seasons
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · at USC · Sat Sep 5 · 01:00 UTC
The experience
Fresno State is the Mountain West program whose 1980s-2000s Pat Hill era + 'Anyone, Anytime, Anywhere' scheduling + Derek Carr / David Carr QB pipeline define what California-G5-football looks like.
Offense: PoorDefense: StrongDefensive shape: Bend-don't-break
Fresno State's 2026 Season Will Hinge on Transfer Integration and Recruiting Depth
With a recruiting rank of #70 and only 17% returning production, Fresno State faces a heavy reload. The team's balanced portal churn and strong transfer additions may determine its success.
- Roster reloadFresno State has a transfer-in total of 13 and a transfer-out total of 10, indicating a net influx of players that could bolster depth.
Data as of 2026-08-01
·
Validated against program evidence
Time Out the Bulldog is patient.
Fresno State · the story right now
10 storylines developing
What Fresno State's coaching hire is really about
the open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?
coachingthis cycle~readnew
Entz begins his tenure with 17% production returning and #90 talent after Skipper's 9-4 run, restarting a program that hasn't sustained Pat Hill-era identity since the Carr QB pipeline.
what happenedMatt Entz took over as Fresno State's head coach, replacing Tim Skipper. ✓ fact
the contextthe program's third head coach in five seasons
narrative tension · our read
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Fresno State jumped 19 spots in SP+ — the 9-4 record and bottom-quintile returning production create a split screen between momentum and the rebuilding challenge under Matt Entz.
what happenedFresno State enters 2026 rated No. 66 in 2025 SP+ (+1.8), up 19 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
the contextbottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season
narrative tension · our read
coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew
Matt Entz begins his tenure with a 9-4 record under his belt, but a coordinator change and rebuilding identity test whether Fresno State can reclaim its California-G5-football legacy.
what happenedFresno State: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
identitythis cycle~readnew
Matt Entz begins his tenure at Fresno State with a 9-4 record, anchoring a program whose identity hinges on its legacy and the challenge of sustaining its recent success.
what happenedFresno State: the fanbase's identity shifting. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
market_swing2026-07-30~readnew
Matt Entz enters his second season with a 9-4 record and a #90 talent rank, raising questions about whether the program can sustain its recent success without a major leap in talent or production.
what happenedFresno State win total fell from 7.5 to 7 (-0.5 wins) between Jul 29 and Jul 30, 2026 (tier B). ✓ fact
the contextwin total down 0.5 — solo market signal, no peers moved the same direction
narrative tension · our read
underdogthis cycle✓ factnew
Josiah Freeman produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
narrative tension · our read
closerthis cycle~attributednew
Brandon Ramirez: a closer signal screened this season.
narrative tension · our read
garbage timethis cycle~attributednew
Bryson Donelson: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
narrative tension · our read
garbage timethis cycle~attributednew
Elijah Gilliam sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Ezekiel Avit is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
narrative tension · our read
How past storylines here turned out
AnsweredFresno State's head-coaching hire held for another season.
The Offseason Ledger · Fresno State
5 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- News
Fresno State OL, RB out for season
OL and RB depth already thin on a roster ranked #70 nationally — losing both to injury before the season starts is the kind of bleed that explains why the books have dropped this line three times since spring.
- News
Freeman granted extra year of eligibility
Entz needed a veteran anchor in a QB room facing real pressure — Freeman's extra year buys Fresno State exactly the bridge their depth class at #70 nationally couldn't provide.
- Recruiting
Mekhai Watkins commits to Fresno State
A Bakersfield DB staying local matters less than what the Bulldogs' secondary depth chart looks like heading into a coordinator transition — Watkins slots into a class ranked 70th that needs bodies who can compete, not just fill a roster spot.
- News
Win total: 7 → 6.5 (▼0.5)
Books moved down from 7 to 6.5 before any public announcement — a market signal ahead of the news cycle.
- News
Win total: 7.5 → 7 (▼0.5)
Books moved down from 7.5 to 7 before any public announcement — a market signal ahead of the news cycle.
Transfer portal snapshot
+5.4 net portal points
(raw ledger: +11.2 — unweighted, no position adjustment)OT+3.5
low confidence
RB+3.5
low confidence
QB-3.5
IOL+3.2
low confidence
LB-3.2
low confidence
K+3.0
low confidence
WR+2.2
EDGE+1.5
S+1.3
TE-0.3
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★☆☆
Deagan Rose
#884 national
Profiles like a typical incoming quarterback — 18 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Pocket Passer archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Xavier Owens
#921 national
Profiles like a typical incoming wide receiver — 17 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Isaiah Lucero
#921 national
→
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
47th percentile among FBS programs
Fan vs. market≈
47th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
6.5
Vegas O/U wins
(41st among FBS)
(41st among FBS)
Fan mood aligned with market consensus
Win total consensus · 3 books
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total3 booksO/U 6.5▼0.5 since Aug 2026
CFP championship#84 in field+100000
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Fresno State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fresno State · Next-Season Outcome BandFloor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 5-7
Base 8-5
Ceiling 10-3
floor5-7No postseason.
base8-5Bowl game.
ceiling10-3Bowl game.
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
How the room reacted
Developing · Fresno State · Coaching Confidence
The Matt Entz era at Fresno State: where it actually stands.
Matt Entz took over as Fresno State's head coach, replacing Tim Skipper. It is the program's third head coach in five seasons. The hire has receded from the front page. The roster and recruiting pipeline are the real measure now. The discourse has moved on; what's left is the quiet work of building something.
Developing6 new this week
yesterdayWin total: 7 → 6.5 (▼0.5)
yesterdayCoach Entz sets timeline for Fresno State QB battle as Fall Camp kicks off — 247Sports
yesterdayFresno State head coach Matt Entz reacts to Day 1 of Fall Camp Stream of NCAA Football — cbssports.com
yesterdayIs Fresno State a premier football development program? Coach Entz on new eligibility rule — Fresno Bee
2 days agoFresno State OL, RB out for season — Official
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Matt Entz Head coach
“Fresno State head coach Matt Entz reacts to Day 1 of Fall Camp Stream of NCAA Football” — cbssports.com · 2026-08-05
Tim Skipper Out
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Entz begins his tenure with 17% production returning and #90 talent after Skipper's 9-4 run, restarting a program that hasn't sustained Pat Hill-era identity since the Carr QB pipeline.
Next · what to watch
The obvious story is the marquee name; the non-obvious one is roster churn — a coaching change keeps a portal and decommit window open long after the introductory presser. Watch decommitments and portal moves in the next window — that's where this is actually won or lost, not at the podium. The boards are already there — one thread raises exactly this.
Source of record: Matt Entz took over as Fresno State's head coach, replacing Tim Skipper — the program's third head coach in five seasons.
How each room reacted — tap to expand
📣Believers0 bullish/hire items -- the case it's working.›
The 'this hire changes everything' takes -- new-era believers making the case early.
“Coach Entz sets timeline for Fresno State QB battle as Fall Camp kicks off”
247Sports · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Fresno State head coach Matt Entz reacts to Day 1 of Fall Camp Stream of NCAA Football”
cbssports.com · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Is Fresno State a premier football development program? Coach Entz on new eligibility rule”
Fresno Bee · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'show me the body of work' counter -- resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
🔗The dominoes6 downstream moves — the hire's knock-on effects.›
Following now · Fresno State · Season outlook Confidence
Fresno State enters the season in the middle of the pack. That's the whole tension.
Fresno State enters 2026 rated No. 66 in 2025 SP+ (+1.8), up 19 spots from 2024. It is bottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season. SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
near-unanimous belief
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers3 bull takes
💬 fans: 30% volume · negative overall
Developing3 new this week
yesterdayWin total: 7 → 6.5 (▼0.5)
2 days agoFresno State OL, RB out for season — Official
last weekWin total: 7.5 → 7 (▼0.5)
2 weeks agoFreeman granted extra year of eligibility — Official
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Fresno State jumped 19 spots in SP+ — the 9-4 record and bottom-quintile returning production create a split screen between momentum and the rebuilding challenge under Matt Entz.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious read on this rating isn't the number — it's the schedule. A team at this level has 2-3 games where the model says they're overmatched, and those are the games that define the narrative. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule.
Source of record: Fresno State enters 2026 rated No. 66 in 2025 SP+ (+1.8), up 19 spots from 2024 — bottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers3 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“Fresno State Fall Camp VIP Day 2: Second impressions, more newcomers, Jacks' offseason”
247Sports · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Irvine’s standout lineman Kota Seshimo commits to play football for Fresno State -”
OC Sports Zone · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Fresno State Fall Camp VIP Day 1: First Impressions, Newcomers, Position Battles”
247Sports · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards30% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (57%).›
This event was in 61 of 200 board posts (30%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"Hello! I took biol67A two semesters ago and sadly had to drop it. I lost my notes and I am moving soon out of state and was wondering if anyone was willing to share their notes or"
r/fresnostate ~ fan take
"Has anyone else dealt with this? My Summer 2026 tuition and fees were $3,301, and my State Grant ($3,033) + Pell Grant ($2,773) totaled $5,806. My fall tuition has a financial aid"
r/fresnostate ~ fan take
Board health this week (72 posts): 10% positive · 68% neutral · 22% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Warming
Four of five. The board favors this trend.
Streak W2Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 7-3
The forecast
Opens Sep 5
vs USC · away
Season line6.5 winsover -150
PoorStrongBend-don't-break
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Rival pulse
San Diego State
Hopeful+8
Old Oil Can
Boise State
Uneasy-6
Milk Can
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
24
CA · 15NE · 3MO · 2UT · 2LA · 1NM · 1
CA leads the 2026 class with 15 commits. National footprint reaching 6 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
91 signees across 12 states, 2023-2026. CA leads the pull.
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] Fresno State Defeats Southern 56-7
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
National spotlight
11 games with TV coverage: 1 national broadcast, 8 cable, 2 streaming
Kickoff windows: 5 afternoon, 6 primetime
Fumble luck
36% recovery rate on the fumbles they've forced — below the ~49% league baseline.
4 of 11 forced fumbles recovered; 6 of 13 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.
Takeaway conversion
32% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — running hot vs. the ~19% league average.
19 interceptions of 60 disrupted passes (41 deflected, 19 intercepted), 2025 only.
Penalty battle
86 penalties committed, 90 drawn on opponents — a near-even trade all season.
788 penalty yards committed vs. 792 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
The Pulse on Fresno State
53
Δ -13.0 vs last wk
72
mentions this week · conversation velocity
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Dogs"
— Fresno State fanbase · recurring line
Fanbase Signals
Cohort Divergence2 pctSpread between sub-fanbase cohorts in the Pulse window.
The Fever Year
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 5 corners
Cr/CFB
GGoogle News
MMountain West Connection
CCampus paper
BBluesky
YYouTube
One voice
+0.00whole-room sentiment · warm our read
Every cohort from the die-hards to the analytics crowd lands within 0.05 of each other — a rare consensus. The loudest voice in the room:
MMountain West ConnectionBeat · article
Boise State’s Top Players: #3
mwcconnection.com →How Fresno State fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
Rr/CFBthe room
Ken Paxton raises some questions about the law school at UVA if this is the level of graduate they're pumping out
▲ 1.4k ▼open ↗
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
The room, end to end
skeptical
buying in
Die-hards+0.11
National take+0.06
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
198 mentions · 6 sources · week 2026-01. Counts, sources and the divergence rank are measured (fact). Cohort labels and sentiment are a source-weighted model read (our read) — never a quote attributed to a person.
Belief checkevidence-driven
~ our readFresno State fans are down on the program, and they're pointing to real stats and results to back it up — more than most fanbases right now.
backed by facts
the mood
✓ counted We read 72 posts from Fresno State fans this week.
Season storylines
Week 3
“Absolutely wild that the biggest MW conference game of the early season so far is so hard for people to watch. What is it about college football administrators that they are indifferent to their games being broadcast and available for viewing.”— r/CFB
Week 11
“Lowest projected points total of the week before the weather turned. Game's either going to be 10-7 or 55-52”— r/CFB
Week 2
“No question, and I was in the Fresno state band in college lol. They were absolutely phenomenal and I was blown away by their sound”— r/CFB
Week 19
Week 10
“I wouldn’t blame the fans if they want to storm the field after the game is over”— r/CFB
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Radio, beat writers & editorial15 posts
News & campus coverage14 posts
Fanbase Health Index · Fresno State · high confidence
Fanbase Health Index · Fresno State · high confidenceGrowing (64)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 9-4 (69% win rate)73
Volume — 520 effective signal-N84
Cohort Engagement — Divergence 0.02 — quiet35
Fanbase Voice
735 fan mentions
Measured
vs the 81 highest-volume fanbases - 2025 season
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#79 / 138 · 43rd pct25.8
Pts allowed/game#13 / 138 · 91st pct18.8
Total yards/gm#86 / 136 · 38th pct354.1
Rush yards/gm#52 / 136 · 62nd pct170.7
Pass yards/gm#104 / 136 · 24th pct183.4
Yards allowed/gm#7 / 136 · 96th pct287.4
Rush yds allowed/gm#45 / 136 · 68th pct133.7
Sacks#76 / 136 · 45th pct24
Interceptions#5 / 136 · 97th pct20
3rd-down conv#100 / 136 · 27th pct36.4%
All 98 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team4603354.1/gm5.38/play#86 / 136 · 38th pct#48 / 70 · 33rd pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp3736287.4/gm4.74/play#7 / 136 · 96th pct#6 / 70 · 93rd pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Rush yards
Team2219170.7/gm2.60/play#52 / 136 · 62nd pct#24 / 70 · 67th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp1738133.7/gm2.20/play#45 / 136 · 68th pct#36 / 70 · 50th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Rush carries
Team48237.1/gm#49 / 136 · 65th pct#20 / 70 · 73rd pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp42032.3/gm#27 / 136 · 81st pct#22 / 70 · 70th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Rush TDs
Team221.7/gm#59 / 136 · 57th pct#34 / 70 · 53rd pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp90.7/gm#7 / 136 · 96th pct#7 / 70 · 91st pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Net pass yards
Team2384183.4/gm2.79/play#104 / 136 · 24th pct#61 / 70 · 14th pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp1998153.7/gm2.53/play#2 / 136 · 99th pct#2 / 70 · 99th pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Pass attempts
Team37328.7/gm#88 / 136 · 36th pct#47 / 70 · 34th pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp36928.4/gm#45 / 136 · 68th pct#20 / 70 · 73rd pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Completions
Team23918.4/gm#74 / 136 · 46th pct#41 / 70 · 43rd pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp19815.2/gm#13 / 136 · 91st pct#4 / 70 · 96th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Pass TDs
Team141.1/gm#105 / 136 · 24th pct#60 / 70 · 16th pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp181.4/gm#63 / 136 · 54th pct#39 / 70 · 46th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Passer rating
Team119.4119.4#119 / 136 · 13th pct#67 / 70 · 6th pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp108.2108.2#6 / 136 · 96th pct#4 / 70 · 96th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team131.0/gm#18 / 136 · 88th pct#7 / 70 · 91st pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp201.5/gm#132 / 136 · 4th pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct#8 / 8 · 12th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Sacks (def)
Team241.8/gm#76 / 136 · 45th pct#45 / 70 · 37th pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct
Opp191.5/gm#27 / 136 · 81st pct#16 / 70 · 79th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#3 / 10 · 80th pct
Tackles for loss
Team675.2/gm#71 / 136 · 49th pct#38 / 70 · 47th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#7 / 10 · 40th pct
Opp715.5/gm#88 / 136 · 36th pct#49 / 70 · 31st pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct#8 / 10 · 30th pct
First downs
Team24618.9/gm#86 / 136 · 38th pct#49 / 70 · 31st pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp21416.5/gm#14 / 136 · 90th pct#10 / 70 · 87th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
3rd-down conv
Team644.9/gm#89 / 136 · 35th pct#47 / 70 · 34th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp634.8/gm#36 / 136 · 74th pct#18 / 70 · 76th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
3rd-down att
Team17613.5/gm#48 / 136 · 65th pct#23 / 70 · 69th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp17513.5/gm#62 / 136 · 55th pct#30 / 70 · 59th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
4th-down conv
Team90.7/gm#109 / 136 · 21st pct#58 / 70 · 19th pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp110.8/gm#32 / 136 · 77th pct#14 / 70 · 81st pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
4th-down att
Team211.6/gm#93 / 136 · 32nd pct#48 / 70 · 33rd pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp221.7/gm#39 / 136 · 72nd pct#20 / 70 · 73rd pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Time of possession
Team420:1132:19/gm#22 / 136 · 85th pct#12 / 70 · 84th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp359:4827:41/gm#25 / 136 · 82nd pct#9 / 70 · 89th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Kicking & Punting
Field goals#64 / 135 · 53rd pct21/27 (77.8%)
Extra points34/34
Punting#123 / 136 · 10th pct40.3 avg · 51 punts
Turnovers & special teams
Turnovers
Team201.5/gm#28 / 136 · 80th pct#10 / 70 · 87th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp251.9/gm#124 / 136 · 10th pct#64 / 70 · 10th pct#8 / 8 · 12th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Fumbles lost
Team70.5/gm#51 / 136 · 63rd pct#22 / 70 · 70th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp50.4/gm#33 / 136 · 76th pct#16 / 70 · 79th pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
INT return TDs
Team20.2/gm#18 / 135 · 87th pct#12 / 70 · 84th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#2 / 11 · 91st pct
Opp20.2/gm#105 / 136 · 24th pct#57 / 70 · 20th pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct#9 / 11 · 27th pct
INT return yards
Team23217.8/gm#15 / 136 · 90th pct#10 / 70 · 87th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp19114.7/gm#113 / 136 · 18th pct#59 / 70 · 17th pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Punt ret yds
Team18113.9/gm#46 / 136 · 67th pct#28 / 70 · 61st pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp241.8/gm#8 / 136 · 95th pct#6 / 70 · 93rd pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Punt ret TDs
Team10.1/gm#14 / 135 · 90th pct#11 / 70 · 86th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#2 / 11 · 91st pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
Kick ret yds
Team46435.7/gm#64 / 136 · 54th pct#26 / 70 · 64th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp41832.2/gm#75 / 136 · 46th pct#47 / 70 · 34th pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Kick ret TDs
Team00.0/gm#40 / 136 · 71st pct#17 / 70 · 77th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#2 / 10 · 90th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Penalty yards
Team78860.6/gm#31 / 136 · 78th pct#15 / 70 · 80th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp79260.9/gm#110 / 136 · 20th pct#62 / 70 · 13th pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Other
Interceptions (def)#5 / 136 · 97th pct#3 / 70 · 97th pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct201.5/gm
Punt ret (opp)#17 / 136 · 88th pct#13 / 70 · 83rd pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct80.6/gm
Punt returns#25 / 136 · 82nd pct#15 / 70 · 80th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct221.7/gm
H2 epa per play opponent#28 / 143 · 81st pct#17 / 70 · 77th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct0.10.0/gm
Penalties#44 / 136 · 68th pct#23 / 70 · 69th pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct866.6/gm
H1 epa per play opponent#45 / 167 · 74th pct#27 / 70 · 63rd pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct0.10.0/gm
Kick returns#56 / 136 · 60th pct#19 / 70 · 74th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct221.7/gm
H1 epa per play#67 / 162 · 59th pct#46 / 70 · 36th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct0.20.0/gm
Fumbles recovered#70 / 136 · 49th pct#33 / 70 · 54th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct60.5/gm
Fumbles rec (def)#71 / 136 · 49th pct#44 / 70 · 39th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct70.5/gm
Red zone pass rate#88 / 154 · 44th pct#40 / 70 · 44th pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct0.40.0/gm
Fourth down go rate#92 / 138 · 34th pct#46 / 70 · 36th pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct0.30.0/gm
Kick ret (opp)#97 / 136 · 29th pct#57 / 70 · 20th pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct262.0/gm
Recruiting rating#103 / 138 · 26th pct#69 / 70 · 3rd pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct142.611.0/gm
Penalties (opp)#106 / 136 · 23rd pct#59 / 70 · 17th pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct906.9/gm
H2 epa per play#108 / 142 · 25th pct#57 / 70 · 20th pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct0.10.0/gm
Passes intercepted opponent#109 / 136 · 21st pct#60 / 70 · 16th pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct131.0/gm
First down pass rate#182 / 215 · 16th pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct#8 / 8 · 12th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct0.30.0/gm
Situational
3rd-down conversion
Off36.4%#100 / 136 · 27th pct#58 / 70 · 19th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Def36.0%#43 / 136 · 69th pct#25 / 70 · 66th pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
4th-down conversion
Off42.9%#116 / 136 · 15th pct#63 / 70 · 11th pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Def50.0%#51 / 136 · 63rd pct#24 / 70 · 67th pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Turnover margin#35 / 136 · 75th pct#20 / 70 · 73rd pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct+0.38/gm
Sack rate (def)#78 / 136 · 43rd pct#49 / 70 · 31st pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct6.5%
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team433.3/gm#71 / 167 · 58th pct#41 / 70 · 43rd pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp312.4/gm#45 / 166 · 73rd pct#11 / 70 · 86th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Red zone score %
Team79.1%79.1%#73 / 167 · 57th pct#39 / 70 · 46th pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp74.2%74.2%#49 / 166 · 71st pct#21 / 70 · 71st pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Points / drive
Team1.90.1/gm#80 / 167 · 53rd pct#48 / 70 · 33rd pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp1.50.1/gm#20 / 166 · 89th pct#15 / 70 · 80th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Yards / drive
Team35.62.7/gm#126 / 167 · 25th pct#65 / 70 · 9th pct#8 / 8 · 12th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp35.92.8/gm#27 / 166 · 84th pct#17 / 70 · 77th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Plays / drive
Team6.00.5/gm#143 / 167 · 15th pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct#8 / 8 · 12th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp6.30.5/gm#40 / 166 · 77th pct#14 / 70 · 81st pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Three-and-out rate
Team15.0%15.0%#106 / 167 · 37th pct#54 / 70 · 24th pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp15.8%15.8%#45 / 166 · 73rd pct#24 / 70 · 67th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Rush rate over expected#44 / 145 · 70th pct#15 / 70 · 80th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct+2.7%+2.7%
Havoc rate
Team17.9%17.9%#29 / 140 · 80th pct#22 / 70 · 70th pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct
Opp16.0%16.0%#81 / 140 · 43rd pct#40 / 70 · 44th pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct
Standard-downs success
Team44.0%44.0%#117 / 154 · 25th pct#60 / 70 · 16th pct#8 / 8 · 12th pct
Opp45.3%45.3%#43 / 172 · 76th pct#24 / 70 · 67th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct
Passing-downs success
Team33.3%33.3%#41 / 153 · 74th pct#24 / 70 · 67th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct
Opp28.6%28.6%#45 / 149 · 70th pct#26 / 70 · 64th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct
Line yards / carry
Team2.82.8#97 / 143 · 33rd pct#49 / 70 · 31st pct#8 / 8 · 12th pct
Opp3.03.0#96 / 155 · 39th pct#52 / 70 · 27th pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct
Stuff rate
Team19.8%19.8%#96 / 143 · 34th pct#49 / 70 · 31st pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct
Opp19.8%19.8%#55 / 155 · 65th pct#32 / 70 · 56th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct
Power success rate
Team63.9%63.9%#105 / 137 · 24th pct#57 / 70 · 20th pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct
Opp75.7%75.7%#106 / 141 · 26th pct#56 / 70 · 21st pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct
Efficiency
Completion %
Off64.1%#46 / 136 · 67th pct#27 / 70 · 63rd pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Def53.7%#6 / 136 · 96th pct#3 / 70 · 97th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Yards / attempt
Off6.4#112 / 136 · 18th pct#62 / 70 · 13th pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Def5.4#3 / 136 · 99th pct#2 / 70 · 99th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Yards / completion
Off10.0#128 / 136 · 7th pct#66 / 70 · 7th pct#8 / 8 · 12th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Def10.1#7 / 136 · 96th pct#5 / 70 · 94th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Yards / carry#52 / 136 · 62nd pct#30 / 70 · 59th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct4.6
Yards / play#96 / 136 · 30th pct#55 / 70 · 23rd pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct5.38
Scoring margin#42 / 136 · 70th pct#32 / 70 · 56th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#5 / 11 · 64th pct+7.0/gm
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
Quarterbacks
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Manager · +0.40 EPA/play | 13 | 10 | 192 / 277 | 69.3 | 2030 | 7.3 | 13 | 11 | 138.4 | 58.9 | 5.9 | 4.8 | |
Yards by week → Game Manager· Money-downConsistent underneath passer who protects the lead. Rarely loses games; rarely wins them alone. saves his best for the money downs Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 9 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Completion %69.2% 86th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts INT rate4.0% bottom 13th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 12th percentile to the 54th among FBS QBs | |||||||||||||
| Pocket Passer · -0.03 EPA/play | 17 | 4 | 47 / 96 | 49.0 | 354 | 3.7 | 1 | 2 | 79.2 | 28.4 | 2.6 | 2.0 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. 97 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt4.5 bottom 1th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Completion %49.9% bottom 2th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Carson Conklin's full player page | |||||||||||||
Running Backs
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Complete Back · +0.22 EPA/play | 2 | 13 | 110 | 699 | 6.4 | 6 | 69 | 9.3 | 15.6 | 16.4 | 17.3 | 11.9% (38/319) | |
Yards by week → Complete BackThreatens defenses in every dimension — rushing, receiving, third-down. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 3 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry6.1 86th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share24.7% 98th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Rayshon Luke's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · -0.03 EPA/play | 6 | 13 | 142 | 583 | 4.1 | 5 | 57 | 10.5 | 9 | 17.5 | 7.3 | 7.2% (23/319) | |
Yards by week → Balanced Back· Boom-or-bustPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry4.3 bottom 19th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception6.3 bottom 34th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like our readthe ball security is the one real worry — 2.52 fumbles per 100 touches (top-decile concern) | |||||||||||||
| Workhorse · +0.06 EPA/play | 31 | 13 | 60 | 271 | 4.5 | 3 | 19 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 19.0 | 13.8 | — | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 52 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight220 lb 82th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception10.4 79th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Brandon Ramirez's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · -0.05 EPA/play | — | 11 | 40 | 267 | 6.7 | 2 | 58 | 2.4 | 2 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt View Johnathan Arceneaux's full player pageYards / carry4.5 bottom 25th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share2.4% bottom 8th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.00 EPA/play | 33 | 11 | 43 | 234 | 5.4 | 5 | 39 | 10.3 | 3.7 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry5.7 57th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate11.6% 100th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Elijah Gilliam's full player page | |||||||||||||
Receivers
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.53 EPA/play | 5 | 12 | 52 | 642 | 12.3 | 6 #62 FBS | 51 | 17.1 | 18 | 26.0% (83/319) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2022 class View Josiah Freeman's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.47 EPA/play | 88 | 11 | 31 | 300 | 9.7 | 3 | 25 | 4.4 | 8.9 | 12.5% (40/319) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 177 of 223 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2023 class View Richie Anderson's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.35 EPA/play | 84 | 10 | 28 | 255 | 9.1 | 0 | 41 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 11.3% (36/319) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception7.2 bottom 6th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 8th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ezekiel Avit's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.44 EPA/play | 1 | 7 | 13 | 169 | 13 | 1 | 43 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 6.3% (20/319) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 7 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Jahlil McClain's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.47 EPA/play | 15 | 5 | 7 | 133 | 19 | 0 | 64 | 7.4 | 5.7 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.54 EPA/play | 11 | 7 | 12 | 114 | 9.5 | 0 | 15 | 1.4 | 5 | 6.0% (19/319) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception13.2 bottom 50th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 8th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jayon Farrar's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.83 EPA/play | 81 | 6 | 10 | 92 | 9.2 | 1 | 28 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 4.7% (15/319) | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| -0.17 EPA/play | 10 | 13 | 9 | 88 | 9.8 | 0 | 18 | 4.2 | 2.6 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.50 EPA/play | 87 | 4 | 5 | 52 | 10.4 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 2.1 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
Defensive Line
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 19 | 12 | 41 | 23 | 10.5 | 6.5 #55 FBS | 4 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate25.6% 88th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 6 | 11 | 32 | 19 | 7 | 3.5 | 3 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate21.9% 78th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBounce-Back: his CFB Index score shows a real arc: 32nd percentile among FBS IDLs, fell to 14th, now back up to 68th | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 8 | 8 | 27 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight306 lb 79th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Martin Owusu's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 44 | 10 | 27 | 15 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Deijon Laffitte's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 99 | 11 | 25 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate0.0% bottom 6th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Michael Jordan Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 24 | 11 | 24 | 11 | 5.5 | 1 | 2 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate22.9% 81th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Merhauti Xepera's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | — | 11 | 19 | 11 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 2 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate28.9% 93th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score moved from the 29th to 70th percentile among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| 94 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
Linebackers
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 39 | 12 | 96 | 55 | 41 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 76th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume96 95th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 34th percentile among FBS LBs to the 62nd | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 35 | 10 | 37 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume37 bottom 31th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tytus Khajavi's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 10 | 7 | 32 | 12 | 20 | 1.5 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate9.4% 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate0.0% bottom 23th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View K'Vion Thunderbird's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 18 | 8 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume17 bottom 12th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Logan Studt's full player page | |||||||||
| 26 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Defensive Backs
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perimeter Tackler | 5 | 13 | 53 | 5 | 5 #6 FBS | 6.5 | 1 |
Perimeter TacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 42 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume53 96th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Simeon Harris's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 22 | 13 | 52 | 4 | 2 | 2.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · senior View Camryn Bracha's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 3 | 13 | 34 | 4 | 4 #23 FBS | 1.5 | 0 |
Centerfielder· Takeaway threatSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.8% 69th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Alzillion Hamilton's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 11 | 10 | 34 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2022 class View Jayden Davis's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 1 | 10 | 26 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Centerfielder· Takeaway threatSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate26.9% 99th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 80th percentile among FBS Ss, up from the 25th | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 37 | 9 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · senior our readBreakout: his CFB Index score went from the 2nd percentile among FBS Ss to the 66th | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 17 | 10 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Ethan Tierney's full player page | |||||||
| 28 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cover Corner | 2 | 8 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 141 of 270 classified this way. Played in 8 of 21 games this season · junior View Andre Cobb's full player page | |||||||
| 29 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Kicking
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 46 | 12 | 21/27 | 77.8 | 34/34 | 97 | 43 |
Punting
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 41 | 12 | 51 | 2057 | 40.3 | 57 | 15 | 1 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
Kick Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Complete Back · +0.22 EPA/play | 2 | 13 | 16 | 341 | 21.3 | 0 | 38 |
| -0.17 EPA/play | 10 | 13 | 6 | 123 | 20.5 | 0 | 26 |
Punt Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.17 EPA/play | 10 | 13 | 19 | 117 | 6.2 | 0 | 54 |
2025 stat leaders
final
2025 stat leaders
1.
Jadon Pearson
LB
96.0 tot (def)
2.
Josiah Freeman
WR
642 yds (rec)
3.
Simeon Harris
CB
53.0 tot (def)
4.
Camryn Bracha
DB
52.0 tot (def)
5.
E.J. Warner
QB
2,030 yds (pass)
Roster
2025
26
players carry a qualified CFB Index Score this season.
Simeon Harris
CB
#6 of 364
Deijon Laffitte
IDL
#21 of 330
Alzillion Hamilton
CB
#33 of 364
Finn Claypool
EDGE
#61 of 420
Rayshon Luke
RB
#55 of 326
Josiah Freeman
WR
#112 of 485
+20 more
Fresno State · 2025 schedule & results9-4Soft slateAverage opponent win rate 40% · 1 AP top-25 opponent on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 23 | #82 | #44 | +14 | @Kansas | L 7–31 116 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 1 | Aug 31 | #82 | #70 | -2 | Georgia Southern | W 42–14 120 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #69 | #87 | +1.5 | @Oregon State | W 36–27 127 | 2-1 | 1-0 |
| 3 | Sep 14 | #79 | #216 | -38.5 | Southern | W 56–7 116 | 3-1 | 1-0 |
| 4 | Sep 21 | #74 | #104 | -2.5 | @Hawai'i | W 23–21 133 | 4-1 | 1-0 |
| 6 | Oct 5 | #74 | #152 | -13.5 | Nevada | W 20–17 114 | 5-1 | 1-0 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #86 | #131 | -5.5 | @Colorado State | L 21–49 133 | 5-2 | 1-1 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #103 | #56 | +3 | San Diego State | L 0–23 130 | 5-3 | 1-2 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #125 | #28 | +17.5 | @Boise State | W 30–7 130 | 6-3 | 2-2 |
| 12 | Nov 16 | #106 | #101 | -2.5 | Wyoming | W 24–3 134 | 7-3 | 2-2 |
| 13 | Nov 23 | #95 | #107 | -1.5 | Utah State | L 17–28 139 | 7-4 | 2-3 |
| 14 | Nov 30 | #107 | #137 | -3.5 | @San José State | W 41–14 133 | 8-4 | 2-3 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 18 | Dec 27 | #93 | #63 | -5.5 | Miami (OH) (N) | W 18–3 | 9-4 | 2-3 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27 | Miami (OH) | W 18–3 | — | — | — | +0.146 | 37.0% | 111.3% | Best defensive stand |
| Nov 30 | @San José State | W 41–14 | 397 | 3 | 39:07 | +0.033 | 38.2% | 107.3% | |
| Nov 23 | Utah State | L 17–28 | 365 | 1 | 26:56 | +0.080 | 23.8% | 182.1% | Most explosive |
| Nov 16 | Wyoming | W 24–3 | 311 | 0 | 34:05 | +0.001 | 24.7% | 180.3% | |
| Nov 1 | @Boise State | W 30–7 | 224 | 0 | 33:14 | -0.030 | 34.3% | 88.0% | |
| Oct 25 | San Diego State | L 0–23 | 227 | 2 | 28:09 | -0.218 | 33.8% | 84.9% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 11 | @Colorado State | L 21–49 | 469 | 4 | 34:48 | +0.046 | 46.2% | 124.6% | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 5 | Nevada | W 20–17 | 349 | 1 | 32:49 | +0.155 | 37.1% | 120.7% | One-score win |
| Sep 21 | @Hawai'i | W 23–21 | 295 | 1 | 30:10 | -0.007 | 46.6% | 99.8% | One-score win |
| Sep 14 | Southern | W 56–7 | 507 | 1 | 34:46 | +0.525 | 67.2% | 107.5% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 6 | @Oregon State | W 36–27 | 320 | 1 | 22:34 | +0.200 | 32.7% | 171.9% | |
| Aug 31 | Georgia Southern | W 42–14 | 527 | 3 | 38:01 | +0.361 | 58.3% | 123.2% | Blowout win |
| Aug 23 | @Kansas | L 7–31 | 216 | 3 | 26:52 | +0.063 | 32.8% | 138.6% | |
| Season average (13 games) | 351 | 1.7 | +0.104 | 39.4% | 126.2% | ||||
How They Play · 2025
How They Play · 2025Fresno State fields a struggling offense behind a strong, bend-don't-break defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Fresno State actually scores
26th percentile quality, 73rd percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Fresno State's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 22nd percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 46th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Fresno State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
22nd percentile success on standard downs, 71st on passing downs — a 49-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
Fresno State by half
1st-half offense ranks 59th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 25th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
How much of Fresno State's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.10; 35th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.01. The widest gap came in week 3: 0.29 raw vs. 0.08 adjusted.
Fresno State reads strongest in success rate allowed (top 15%) and explosive plays allowed (top 20%); the crux lives in rushing epa, where Fresno State sits at the 14th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
ELITE · 90+STRONG · 70+AVERAGE · 40-70CONCERN · 10-40BOTTOM · <10
Most Similar Programs · Fresno State
Most Similar Programs · Fresno StateReads Like
AkronTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontApp StateTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontArizonaTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up front
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Fresno State · 2018-present
Strong
72% home win rate vs 54% on the road. margin runs +12.0 better at home. Valley Children's Stadium seats 41,031, averaging 96% full (39,408 attendance, 24 games reported).
Home32-12Away26-22
Positional competition · RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Bryson Donelson and Rayshon Luke split the carries (136/246 vs 110/246) -- but Rayshon Luke leads on every measured axis. This isn't a split role, it's a hierarchy with a change-of-pace back behind it.
Bryson DonelsonRayshon Luke
Carries
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
Q4, leading (competitive)
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Targets
p = 0.007 -- real, not noise
Top-5-carry share
concentration and EPA/carry agree -- a real boom/bust split
Screened 3 claims, 2 survived, 1 falsified
Positional competition · WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Josiah Freeman (WR) and Richie Anderson (TE) split the targets (79/117 vs 38/117) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Josiah FreemanRichie Anderson
Targets
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
3rd-down targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Garbage-time share
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-catch share
concentration alone -- EPA/target doesn't corroborate, read with caution
Screened 3 claims, 0 survived, 3 falsified
What changed
Fresno State’s play-calling, before and after the change
Offense: Pat McCann (2023–2024) → Josh Davis (2025)
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved down 21 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
Defense: Kevin Coyle (2022–2024) → Nick Benedetto (2025)
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved down 21 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
Defensive identity · pass zones
What this defense gives up, by zone.
On short passes, Fresno State’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (57.4% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 133-play sample) — stingiest, 1 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
Screened 133 claims, 133 survived · 2025 only, in the 399 games with the detailed play-text feed; n=133 short-zone plays faced, raw rate 48.9%
Venue texture
74°F average kickoff temp; 1% of games had measurable precipitation; 5 mph average wind.
Based on 68 home games with weather data.
The CFP Era
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
TRAJECTORY · quality-score line · AP rank dotted · CFP bids marked · coach regimes ribboned
Program Quality
AP Rank (inverted)
CFP Appearance
Fresno State's 2014–2025 record is 82-67. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
431-337-6
since 1926 · 96 seasons · .556 win rate
HOME
252-120-3
AWAY
164-204-3
NEUTRAL
15-13
1920s
1930s
1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
The program, in full — read the essay
For fifteen years, Pat Hill's Bulldogs drove into anybody's stadium and dared the blue bloods to schedule them back. In 2026, Fresno State joins the Pac-12 — and the dare finally has an answer.
Fresno State built its entire identity on a four-word philosophy: Anyone, Anytime, Anywhere. Pat Hill didn't just say it — he meant it, loading the Bulldogs on buses to hostile road environments and winning enough of them to make the Valley a genuine threat on the national schedule. David Carr cracked the top 10 in 2001 and became the first overall NFL pick in 2002. Derek Carr followed two decades later. The Carr pipeline is the clearest evidence that the Central Valley produces NFL quarterbacks at a rate the sport has never fully credited.
After the 2018 Mountain West title under Jeff Tedford — 12-2 and a Las Vegas Bowl win, the program's modern peak — Fresno cooled into several seasons of ordinary results. Matt Entz's first year in 2025 snapped the pattern: 9-4 and an Arizona Bowl win over Miami (OH), the validation that the Valley standard hadn't permanently slipped. Entz enters 2026 with the program restored and a historic upgrade locked in: Fresno State leaves the Mountain West for the Pac-12, playing its first power-conference season with an opener at USC.
The Pac-12 chapter is the question 2026 will answer — not whether Fresno belongs (the Pat Hill era settled that argument for anyone who watched) but whether a first-year power-conference program can compete for a league title immediately or needs a transitional season first. 'Anyone, Anytime, Anywhere' has a new venue. The Valley will find out if the giants can still be had.
How they play
Physical, run-first football with a quarterback capable of beating you through the air — the Carr brothers set the template and Fresno has never fully abandoned it. Under Entz the Bulldogs run a pro-style spread that prioritizes the run game and play-action, with an offensive line identity inherited from decades of Valley football that values downhill toughness over space-creation. The chip is the scheme: 'Anyone, Anytime, Anywhere' is not a slogan in Fresno, it's a blocking mentality.
Steady
Fresno State 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (+0.12 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 3.
CFP Era · Fresno State
12 seasons on file
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 9-4
Season Standing · 2025 · 9-4Bowl eligible
Fresno State: 6+ wins, bowl access secured. The baseline of a successful FBS year.
R0R1R2R3R4R5R6R7R8R9
Sub-FBSBuildingBowlRankedContenderPlayoff
Pac-12 Standing · 2025
4th in the Pac-12
Fresno State sits 4th of 8 in the Pac-12 at 2-3. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Washington State | 4-1 |
| 2 | San Diego State | 3-1 |
| 3 | Boise State | 2-2 |
| 4 | Fresno State | 2-3 |
| 5 | Oregon State | 1-2 |
| 6 | Utah State | 1-2 |
| 7 | Colorado State | 1-3 |
| 8 | Texas State | 0-0 |
Coaching Era · Fresno State
Coaching Era · Fresno StateMatt Entz
Matt Entz in year 2 of the rebuild. The methodology is taking shape.
Era Matt Entz · 2025–presentPrev: Tim Skipper (2024)OC: Josh DavisPrev OC: Pat McCann (2023–2024)DC: Nick BenedettoPrev DC: Kevin Coyle (2022–2024)
2
years · era
Rituals
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
Anyone, Anytime, Anywhere (Pat Hill Era)
since 1997
Pat Hill's 1997-2011 tenure produced the famous 'Anyone, Anytime, Anywhere' scheduling philosophy — Fresno State would play anyone, including P5 powers, on any field, any time. The aggressive non-conference scheduling produced multiple top-25 finishes + multiple bowl wins + the program's national reputation. The philosophy is permanent identity.
Carr Brothers QB Pipeline
since 2002
David Carr (1997-2001) + Derek Carr (2009-2013) — brothers both at Fresno State, both first-round NFL draft picks (David #1 overall 2002, Derek #2 in 2014 — second round). The Carr-brothers pipeline + Derek Carr's NCAA passing-yards-per-game record + the QB-development lineage make Fresno State QB U at the G5 level.
Jeff Tedford 2018 Mountain West Championship
since 2018
Jeff Tedford's 2018 12-2 + Mountain West championship + Las Vegas Bowl championship (his first year as head coach) is the program's modern peak. The Tedford era's recruiting + competitive cycles continued the Pat Hill ascent narrative. Tedford's 2022 departure to UC opened the next cycle.
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2001 top-10 run
David Carr's Bulldogs beat ranked opponents on the road and crack the top 10 — the 'Anyone, Anytime, Anywhere' apex
2018 Mountain West title
Tedford's 12-2 team wins the conference and the Las Vegas Bowl
The 2025 reset
Matt Entz's first year goes 9-4 with an Arizona Bowl win over Miami (OH) ahead of the Pac-12 move
Moment of the Year · Fresno State · 2025
Moment of the Year · Fresno State · 2025Postseason · Won 18-3 vs Miami (OH)
Week 18 of 2025. Postseason win — the season-defining moment.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Bowl / Postseason LedgerRecent postseason (2014-2025): 6-2
Most recent: 2025 — win 18-3 (home). Last 5 postseason: 4-1.
20252024202320222021
NFL Draft Pipeline
2022–2023
NFL Draft PipelineThin
2 picks last 5 cycles. Roster development still maturing.
2
picks · 0 R1
#127
Jake Haener
Quarterback · 2023 · New Orleans · #53/140 final season
#167
DaRon Bland
Cornerback · 2022 · Dallas · #182/321 final season
#76 all-time · 5 first-round picksthe talent factory →
Unit lineage
Fresno State’s offense and defense, by coordinator
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Offense2014–2025
2014–2015 · Dave Schramm2016 · Eric Kiesau2017–2018 · Kalen DeBoer2019–2021 · Ryan Grubb2022 · Kirby Moore2023–2024 · Pat McCann2025 (ongoing) · Josh Davis
Defense2014–2025
2014–2015 · Nick Toth2016 · Lorenzo Ward2017 · Orlondo Steinauer2018–2019 · Bert Watts2020–2021 · William Inge2022–2024 · Kevin Coyle2025 (ongoing) · Nick Benedetto
Elite (≥70th pct)AveragePoor (≤30th pct)
Chronicle Visuals
A heavy-turnover 2025: 17% returning (below average), with the offense the biggest question.
The portal upgraded the S room but opened a hole at QB.
Fresno State sits where recruit talent and draft yield largely match.
r/cfb moments
857
[Postgame Thread] Connecticut Defeats Fresno State 19-14
543
[Postgame Thread] Fresno State Defeats Connecticut 45-0
442
[Postgame Thread] USC Defeats Fresno State 45-17
406
[Postgame Thread] USC Defeats Fresno State 31-23
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
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