Texas State7-63G.J. Kinne enters his fourth season with a 7-6 record and a reshaped unit, balancing the momentum of an 8-5 2023 season with the challenge of sustaining it in the Pac-12.
Texas State was the most recent program to climb to FBS and spent a decade as a Sun Belt afterthought — then GJ Kinne won three straight bowl games and the revamped Pac-12 handed San Marcos a Power seat, turning the doormat into a conference flagship almost overnight.
Fans have heard it for a decade — that Texas State is the newcomer that doesn't matter, the FBS arrival nobody respects. Getting the Pac-12 nod over older, bigger programs is the answer they wanted, a…
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · at Texas · Sat Sep 5 · 19:30 UTC
Texas State is the Sun Belt program whose 2012 FBS reclassification + 2023 8-5 + GJ Kinne era + Jim Wacker Stadium identity define what most-recent-FBS-newcomer-ascent looks like.
With a returning total pct of 93% and a balanced portal churn, Texas State aims to leverage its stable roster for a bowl-eligible campaign. The team faces challenges in EDGE and OT positions due to significant transfer losses.
Boko the Bobcat is patient.
the open questiondo the new coordinators fit the roster?
Texas State: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
With Shaker Reisig arriving at QB and Donterry Russell (EDGE) headlining Texas State's top-9 portal class, G.J. Kinne adds depth to a 7-6 roster already returning 100% of its passing game.
G.J. Kinne enters his third season at Texas State with a 7-6 record under his belt, as the program's identity continues to shift toward a more established FBS presence.
G.J. Kinne enters his fourth season with a 7-6 record and a reshaped unit, balancing the momentum of an 8-5 2023 season with the challenge of sustaining it in the Pac-12.
Texas State dropped 17 spots in SP+ — the 7-6 record and top-quintile returning production contrast with the 65th ranking, highlighting the tension between performance and projection under G.J. Kinne.
Top 3 commits
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
74th percentile among FBS programs
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Texas State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Texas State signed a top-27 transfer-portal class — 34 additions headlined by Nate Yarnell (QB) from Pittsburgh and Holden Geriner (QB) from Auburn. It is the No. 1 portal class in the Pac-12 this cycle. Portal pickups don't redshirt. The coverage sees this as a targeted, ready-to-contribute class built for snap competition, not depth-chart filler. The coverage reads this as a credible, targeted haul.
The 'portal class fills the gaps' believers -- upgrades at real positions of need.
The 'portal is a gamble' counter -- departure losses and the 'plug-and-play doesn't work' read.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 39 of 298 board posts (13%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (102 posts): 21% positive · 63% neutral · 16% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Texas State: the fanbase's identity shifting.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
This event was in 68 of 298 board posts (23%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (102 posts): 21% positive · 63% neutral · 16% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Four of five. The board favors this trend.
Opens Sep 5
vs Texas · away
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
TX leads the 2026 class with 15 commits. National footprint reaching 5 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
79 signees across 10 states, 2023-2026. TX leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
4 games with TV coverage: 2 ESPN, 1 cable, 1 streaming
Kickoff windows: 1 noon, 1 afternoon, 2 primetime
25% recovery rate on their own fumbles — below the ~51% league baseline.
3 of 12 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.
20% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — about the ~19% league average.
8 interceptions of 41 disrupted passes (33 deflected, 8 intercepted), 2025 only.
90 penalties committed, 70 drawn on opponents — ceding 136 yards of field position.
773 penalty yards committed vs. 637 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 7 corners
One voice
Every cohort from the die-hards to the analytics crowd lands within 0.02 of each other — a rare consensus. The loudest voice in the room:
Ryder Burton looks to build on iconic upset as Uab’s QB1
underdogdynasty.com →How Texas State fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
The room, end to end
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
~ our readTexas State fans are cautiously optimistic, with a bit less hard evidence than most fanbases.
✓ counted We read 102 posts from Texas State fans this week.
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Fanbase Health Index · Texas State · high confidence
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.32 EPA/play | 8 | 13 | 251 / 352 | 71.3 | 3223 #24 FBS | 9.2 | 21 #39 FBS | 7 | 163.9 | 70.6 | 8.6 | 6.1 | |
Yards by week → Scrambler· Money-downMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. saves his best for the money downs All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 45 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Rush usage33.1% 84th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Completion %71.4% 92th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Brad Jackson's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.17 EPA/play | 7 | 13 | 211 | 1129 #23 FBS | 5.4 | 12 #30 FBS | 63 | 22.7 | 14.2 | 12.2 | 8.9 | 13.6% (38/280) | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry5.3 53th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate5.7% 70th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like our readTwo-star recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 62nd to 95th percentile among FBS RBs | |||||||||||||
| Speed Merchant · +0.25 EPA/play | 9 | 12 | 100 | 671 | 6.7 | 3 | 61 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 14.9 | 15.8 | — | |
Yards by week → Speed MerchantCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 48 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry6.7 92th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception9.6 72th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 37th percentile among FBS RBs to the 76th | |||||||||||||
| -0.15 EPA/play | 5 | 11 | 31 | 170 | 5.5 | 2 | 58 | 1.3 | 5.3 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| +0.12 EPA/play | 4 | 4 | 20 | 95 | 4.8 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 1.3 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.67 EPA/play | 11 | 13 | 84 | 1200 #6 FBS | 14.3 | 10 #12 FBS | 73 | 12.7 | 14.9 | 39.3% (110/280) | |
Yards by week → Slot Technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The rare part: the passing game runs through him — and every touch moves the offense, too 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume84 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Total EPA (college ability)77.5 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 100th percentile among FBS WRs, up from the 31st | |||||||||||
| Slot Technician · +0.68 EPA/play | 1 | 12 | 65 | 1007 #22 FBS | 15.5 | 4 | 82 | 6.3 | 11.7 | 14.6% (41/280) | |
Yards by week → Slot Technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume65 95th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.7 76th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score moved from the 57th to 96th percentile among FBS WRs | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.38 EPA/play | 2 | 8 | 15 | 211 | 14.1 | 1 | 45 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 11.4% (32/280) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 8 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2024 class View Kylen Evans's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.92 EPA/play | 3 | 5 | 9 | 155 | 17.2 | 1 | 48 | 4.2 | 6.7 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.70 EPA/play | 16 | 6 | 10 | 105 | 10.5 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 2.4 | — | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception10.5 bottom 46th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Blake Smith's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.41 EPA/play | 86 | 9 | 12 | 94 | 7.8 | 3 | 24 | 5.5 | 1.2 | — | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception6.2 bottom 9th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate25.0% 98th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Titus Lyons's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.36 EPA/play | 18 | 5 | 7 | 48 | 6.9 | 0 | 25 | 1.5 | 4.2 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Versatile End | 2 | 12 | 48 | 28 | 11.5 #62 FBS | 5 | 5 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 139 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate24.0% 65th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Kalil Alexander's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 12 | 13 | 35 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 2 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 139 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate25.7% 71th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBounce-Back: his CFB Index score shows a real arc: 85th percentile among FBS EDGEs, fell to 13th, now back up to 74th | |||||||
| Versatile End | — | 11 | 32 | 16 | 8.5 | 2 | 4 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 139 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate26.6% 74th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tymere Jackson's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 99 | 10 | 20 | 11 | 6.5 | 1 | 3 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight312 lb 84th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Amipeleasi Langi Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 8 | 11 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate26.7% 90th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Kamren Washington's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 88 | 9 | 14 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | 0 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate25.0% 86th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jordan Sanders's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 97 | 8 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 8 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2025 class View Devarrick Woods's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 35 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 8 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Ta'Derius Collins's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 96 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 3.5 | 0 | 2 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate35.0% 98th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Bryce Carter's full player page | |||||||
| 13 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 34 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 29 | 12 | 101 | 44 | 57 | 6.5 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume101 96th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate6.4% bottom 34th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 79th percentile among FBS LBs, up from the 40th | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 46 | 11 | 52 | 30 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 77th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Ayden Jones's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 16 | 11 | 46 | 22 | 24 | 4.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · senior View Terrence Cooks II's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 3 | 9 | 28 | 16 | 12 | 2.5 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate7.1% 95th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume28 bottom 21th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score moved from the 0th to 48th percentile among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 45 | 9 | 27 | 16 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 81th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume27 bottom 20th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Cole Nilles's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 15 | 11 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 5.5 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.6% 85th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate22.2% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Donterry Russell's full player page | |||||||||
| 30 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 7 | 11 | 72 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume72 92th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 29th percentile to the 65th among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Box Safety | 1 | 11 | 59 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume59 79th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Bobby Crosby's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 4 | 9 | 33 | 3 | 1 | 2.5 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 141 of 270 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · junior View Khamari Terrell's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 10 | 9 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · junior View Javis Mynatt's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 23 | 9 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 141 of 270 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2023 class View Amarion Atwood's full player page | |||||||
| Press Corner | 9 | 10 | 24 | 4 | 4 #23 FBS | 3.5 | 1 |
Press Corner· Takeaway threatLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way 43 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'3" 96th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| Press Corner | 37 | 9 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Press CornerLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. 43 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'2" 87th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Malik Willis's full player page | |||||||
| Press Corner | 11 | 8 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Press CornerLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. 43 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'3" 96th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Canden Grogan's full player page | |||||||
| Press Corner | 18 | 9 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Press CornerLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. 43 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt View Craig Royal Jr.'s full player pageHeight6'2" 87th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles | |||||||
| Press Corner | 17 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 |
Press Corner· Takeaway threatLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way 43 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'2" 87th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Christopher Jones's full player page | |||||||
| 22 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 26 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 36 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 28 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Automatic | 95 | 13 | 21/23 | 91.3 | 53/54 | 116 | 50 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 38 | 13 | 39 | 1587 | 40.7 | 52 | 9 | 2 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.15 EPA/play | 5 | 11 | 23 | 622 | 27 | 1 | 100 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.67 EPA/play | 11 | 13 | 13 | 72 | 5.5 | 0 | 32 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+20 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 31 | #57 | #147 | -14 | Eastern Michigan | W 52–27 133 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #78 | #11 | +4.5 | @UTSA | W 43–36 140 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 14 | #53 | #23 | +18.5 | @Arizona State | L 15–34 145 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 21 | #55 | #199 | -32.5 | Nicholls | W 35–3 133 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #55 | #160 | -14.5 | @Arkansas State | L 30–31 141 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 7 | Oct 12 | #64 | #89 | -7.5 | Troy | L 41–48 147 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #72 | #71 | -2.5 | @Marshall | L 37–40 164 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 10 | Oct 29 | #62 | #38 | +7 | James Madison | L 20–52 135 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #81 | #100 | -3.5 | @Louisiana | L 39–42 136 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #75 | #90 | +3.5 | @Southern Miss | W 41–14 142 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #59 | #199 | -20.5 | UL Monroe | W 31–14 136 | 5-6 | 0-0 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #61 | #119 | -9.5 | South Alabama | W 49–26 140 | 6-6 | 0-0 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 18 | Jan 2 | #50 | #192 | -19.5 | Rice (N) | W 41–10 | 7-6 | 0-0 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2 | Rice | W 41–10 | — | — | — | +0.293 | 46.4% | 133.6% | Best defensive stand |
| Nov 29 | South Alabama | W 49–26 | 544 | 2 | 30:49 | +0.523 | 56.3% | 129.3% | |
| Nov 22 | UL Monroe | W 31–14 | 422 | 1 | 32:07 | +0.330 | 46.8% | 130.6% | |
| Nov 15 | @Southern Miss | W 41–14 | 449 | 0 | 32:04 | +0.345 | 50.7% | 108.2% | |
| Nov 8 | @Louisiana | L 39–42 | 528 | 2 | 22:02 | +0.581 | 56.9% | 148.6% | One-score loss |
| Oct 29 | James Madison | L 20–52 | 352 | 3 | 27:30 | -0.008 | 28.2% | 164.1% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 18 | @Marshall | L 37–40 | 558 | 3 | 27:17 | +0.214 | 35.0% | 163.9% | One-score loss |
| Oct 12 | Troy | L 41–48 | 574 | 0 | 31:01 | +0.456 | 47.3% | 165.9% | One-score loss |
| Oct 4 | @Arkansas State | L 30–31 | 521 | 1 | 30:13 | +0.109 | 40.9% | 106.8% | One-score loss |
| Sep 21 | Nicholls | W 35–3 | 401 | 1 | 26:51 | +0.320 | 51.5% | 111.0% | Blowout win |
| Sep 14 | @Arizona State | L 15–34 | 303 | 2 | 29:17 | +0.119 | 51.3% | 91.5% | |
| Sep 6 | @UTSA | W 43–36 | 461 | 1 | 29:37 | +0.262 | 36.4% | 173.3% | Most explosive |
| Aug 31 | Eastern Michigan | W 52–27 | 606 | 0 | 30:58 | +0.666 | 59.1% | 141.7% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (13 games) | 477 | 1.3 | +0.324 | 46.7% | 136.0% | ||||
Texas State fields an elite run-heavy offense behind a leaky, gives up the big play defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
92nd percentile quality, 8th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 99th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 99th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
60th percentile success on standard downs, 93rd on passing downs — a 33-point gap between the two.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 86th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 96th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.32; 97th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.11. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.67 raw vs. 0.06 adjusted.
Texas State reads strongest in rushing epa (top 5%) and epa / play (top 6%); the crux lives in explosive plays allowed, where Texas State sits at the 20th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · Texas State
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Texas State · 2018-present
51% home win rate vs 23% on the road. margin runs +11.8 better at home. Bobcat Stadium (TX) seats 30,000, averaging 70% full (20,975 attendance, 24 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Lincoln Pare and Greg Burrell split the carries (216/316 vs 100/316) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Beau Sparks (WR) and Blake Smith (TE) split the targets (107/118 vs 11/118) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Blake Smith produces in bigger chunks.
What changed
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved down 5 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Play-calling barely moved on the change — every rate held within a few points.
Season by season
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, Texas State’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (69.1% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 143-play sample) — mid-pack, 116 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
Historical echo
Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
77°F average kickoff temp; 11% of games had measurable precipitation; 10 mph average wind.
Based on 73 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
Texas State's 2014–2025 record is 53-94. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 1909 · 45 seasons · .402 win rate
Texas State joined the FBS in 2012, spent a decade without a bowl game, and is now a Power conference program. GJ Kinne's third straight bowl win happened in December 2025. The Pac-12 invitation happened that same month. San Marcos moved faster than anyone thought possible.
The first decade of Texas State's FBS existence is the foundation the current program is built against. Reclassified in 2012, the Bobcats spent years losing on a Sun Belt schedule that wasn't supposed to be that hard — the kind of program opponents scheduled for guaranteed wins, the kind that gets filed under 'newcomer that doesn't matter.' GJ Kinne arrived in 2023 and immediately ended that chapter: a First Responder Bowl win in year one, a second bowl win in year two, a third straight bowl win in December 2025 with a 41-10 rout of Rice in the Armed Forces Bowl. Three years, three bowls, no losing seasons. The turnaround was fast enough to feel structural, not lucky.
Then came the news that changed what the program is. Texas State was announced as a Pac-12 member effective July 1, 2026 — the revamped conference's flagship Texas school, sitting on the I-35 corridor between Austin and San Antonio, the most recruit-rich stretch of road in the country. The upgrade from a Sun Belt school to a Power conference program, inside a decade of FBS membership, is an ascent the sport has almost no precedent for.
The 2026 season is the first real test of whether San Marcos belongs at this level. Kinne enters year four with a 7-6 Sun Belt foundation and a Power conference schedule waiting on the other side. The question isn't whether Texas State deserves the seat — the invitation settles that — but whether a program this young has the roster depth to compete in a league that suddenly looks like a real Power conference.
Newcomer swagger — Kinne's Texas State plays fast, modern, spread offense built to punch above a young program's weight. The recruiting pitch centers on the I-35 geography: players from Austin and San Antonio who might be a developmental project elsewhere and a guaranteed starter in San Marcos. The Pac-12 upgrade sharpens that pitch considerably. The brand of football is confident, not conservative — a young program that doesn't play scared.
Texas State 2016–2025. Climbing +1.2 rungs across the last 10 seasons. Slope +0.25 rungs / year — moving up the prestige scale.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 7-6
Texas State: 6+ wins, bowl access secured. The baseline of a successful FBS year.
Pac-12 Standing · 2025
Texas State is 8th of 8 in the Pac-12 at 0-0. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Washington State | 4-1 |
| 2 | San Diego State | 3-1 |
| 3 | Boise State | 2-2 |
| 4 | Fresno State | 2-3 |
| 5 | Oregon State | 1-2 |
| 6 | Utah State | 1-2 |
| 7 | Colorado State | 1-3 |
| 8 | Texas State | 0-0 |
Coaching Era · Texas State
G.J. Kinne has held the program for 4 seasons — the era is established.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 2012
Texas State reclassified from FCS Division I-AA to FBS in 2012 — one of the recent Sun Belt FBS additions. The program's history (1899 founding, multiple FCS playoff appearances) provided foundation, but the 2012 FBS jump opened the modern competitive cycle. The 2013-2022 transitional era + 2023 GJ Kinne breakthrough complete the modern arc.
since 2023
GJ Kinne's 2023 8-5 + First Responder Bowl championship — his first year as head coach — was the program's first FBS bowl win. The 2023 breakthrough + the youth-coach narrative (Kinne age-35) + the recruiting-reach methodology give Texas State permanent national-narrative entry. The 2024-2025 era continues the rebuild momentum.
since 1920s
'Eat 'Em Up Cats' — Texas State's fight song chorus dating to the 1920s — is the program's defining fan mantra. The phrase appears in tweets + recruiting + alumni events + the bobcat-mascot-context creates a permanent identity unique among Sun Belt programs.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
GJ Kinne's first team wins the program's first-ever bowl game in his debut season
2025
A 41-10 rout caps a 7-6 season and a third straight bowl win
2025
Texas State is announced as a Pac-12 member effective July 2026 — its leap to a Power conference
Moment of the Year · Texas State · 2025
Week 18 of 2025. Postseason win — the season-defining moment.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2025 — win 41-10 (home). Last 5 postseason: 3-0.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Hired for 2026: Will Windham / co-Matthew Gregg — not yet reflected in on-field data.
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
Texas State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Fanbase Health Index · Texas State · high confidence
2025 stat leaders
How They Play · 2025
Most Similar Programs · Texas State
Season Standing · 2025 · 7-6
Coaching Era · Texas State
Moment of the Year · Texas State · 2025
Bowl / Postseason Ledger