coordinatorsthis cycle✓ factnew
Texas State: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
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Texas State
1-2Latest
Pac-12 · G.J. Kinne, year 4 (24-18) · Bobcat Stadium (TX) · 30,000 · 18,092 avg in 2026
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#39 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #91 (-5.9) · FPI #86
The marketno line yetvs Incarnate Word · our model 87% Texas State · a number, not a pick
LastW 49–35 vs North Texas · Sat Sep 19 · Brad Jackson 268 pass yds, 4 TD, 30 rush yds
Nextvs Incarnate Word · Sat Sep 26 · 6 pm ET · Bobcat Stadium (TX) · series 1-1, last win 2016 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 22 · through week 3
Texas State · 2026 schedule & results1-2
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #34 | #5 | +29.5✗ | @Texas | L 7–59 140 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #30 | #16 | -1.5✗ | UTSA | L 26–31 154 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #32 | #118 | -3✓ | North Texas | W 49–35 158 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #38 | #149 | Incarnate Word | ||||
| 5 | Oct 4 | #39 | #54 | @San Diego State | ||||
| 7 | Oct 16 | Colorado State | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | Utah State | ||||||
| 9 | Nov 1 | @Boise State | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 8 | @Oregon State | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Fresno State | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Washington State |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 | North Texas | W 49–35 | 605 | 0 | 27:25 | +0.530 | 59.2% | 137.8% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | UTSA | L 26–31 | 481 | 3 | 31:40 | +0.143 | 47.5% | 101.6% | One-score loss |
| Sep 5 | @Texas | L 7–59 | 349 | 3 | 30:26 | +0.139 | 41.1% | 112.7% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Season average (3 games) | 478 | 2.0 | +0.271 | 49.3% | 117.4% | ||||
Verdict Begins·Live
Texas State was the most recent program to climb to FBS and spent a decade as a Sun Belt afterthought — then GJ Kinne won three straight bowl games and the revamped Pac-12 handed San Marcos a Power seat, turning the doormat into a conference flagship almost overnight.
Title DroughtSince 2012 · 14 yrs
Fans have heard it for a decade — that Texas State is the newcomer that doesn't matter, the FBS arrival nobody respects. Getting the Pac-12 nod over older, bigger programs is the answer they wanted…
low signal
The season in chapters
Ahead
What fans said
Texas State fans
Texas State fans
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 7-6 · last season
Game feel65shootoutscombined pts / game1st highest-scoring of 14 in the Sun Belt
Heart rate1-4some dramain one-score games (5 of 13)7th most one-score games of 14 in the Sun Belt
Margin+7.5comfortableavg scoring margin3rd best margin of 14 in the Sun Belt
Tempo71uptempooffensive plays / game3rd fastest of 14 in the Sun Belt
Big plays1.36highlight reelexplosiveness (IsoPPP)2nd most explosive of 14 in the Sun Belt
Home crowd21,260avg attendance7th biggest crowds of 14 in the Sun Belt
✓ measured from 13 games · ranks are among Sun Belt teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Texas State has won three of its last five.
Mixed. 5-5 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Streak W1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 5-5
Over the years, I developed my own businesses in hospitality and entertainment, and being someone who is involved in other festivals in different cities and states, I always reverted back to thinking, ‘why doesn’t San Marcos have its own festival identity,’ something for San Marcos, by San Marcos
The forecast
Next Sep 26
vs Incarnate Word · at home
Season line6.5 winsover +115
StrongRun-heavy, ground-controlMethodical, ball-control
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total1 booksO/U 6.5
CFP championship#70 in field+100000
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-22
Texas State · the story right now
4 storylines developing
What Texas State's coordinator hires is really about
the open questiondo the new coordinators fit the roster?
portal2025-07-27~readnew
With Shaker Reisig arriving at QB and Donterry Russell (EDGE) headlining Texas State's top-9 portal class, G.J. Kinne adds depth to a 7-6 roster already returning 100% of its passing game.
what happenedTexas State signed a top-27 transfer-portal class — 34 additions headlined by Nate Yarnell (QB) from Pittsburgh and Holden Geriner (QB) from Auburn. ✓ fact
the contextthe No. 1 portal class in the Pac-12 this cycle
our readdeveloping
coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew
G.J. Kinne enters his fourth season with a 7-6 record and a reshaped unit, balancing the momentum of an 8-5 2023 season with the challenge of sustaining it in the Pac-12.
what happenedTexas State: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact
our readdeveloping
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Texas State dropped 17 spots in SP+ — the 7-6 record and top-quintile returning production contrast with the 65th ranking, highlighting the tension between performance and projection under G.J. Kinne.
what happenedTexas State enters 2026 rated No. 65 in 2025 SP+ (+2.3), down 17 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
the contexttop-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back
our readbackground
How past storylines here turned out
Died downTexas State's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Died downTexas State's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Outcome band · Texas State · 2026
Outcome band · Texas State · 2026Texas State's most likely season is 8-5 — a bowl game. The floor is 5-7; the ceiling is 10-3.
Floor 5-7Ceiling 10-3Base 8-5
0 wins13 wins
Floor5-7No postseason.
Base8-5A bowl game.
Ceiling10-3A bowl game, 2 more wins.
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
How the room reacted
Following now · Texas State · Transfer portal Confidence
Texas State signed a top-27 portal class — Nate Yarnell headlines the class. Fall camp is the real verdict.
Texas State signed a top-27 transfer-portal class — 34 additions headlined by Nate Yarnell (QB) from Pittsburgh and Holden Geriner (QB) from Auburn. It is the No. 1 portal class in the Pac-12 this cycle. Portal pickups don't redshirt. The coverage sees this as a targeted, ready-to-contribute class built for snap competition, not depth-chart filler. The coverage reads this as a credible, targeted haul.
near-unanimous belief
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers7 bull takes
💬 fans: 6% volume
The saga so far~3 months old
Aug 15Other top QBs transferred out, but not Texas State's Brad Jackson. Why he says he stayed — Yahoo Sports
Aug 13'I ain't trying to be a Buckeye': Why Texas football transfer star Rasheem Biles has Ohio State game circled — 247Sports
Jun 26Chaz Coleman Reportedly Medically Disqualified from Tennessee Roster After PSU Transfer — Bleacher Report
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Nate Yarnell QB · Pittsburgh
Holden Geriner QB · Auburn
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
With Shaker Reisig arriving at QB and Donterry Russell (EDGE) headlining Texas State's top-9 portal class, G.J. Kinne adds depth to a 7-6 roster already returning 100% of its passing game.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious question after any portal class isn't who signed — it's who just lost their job. Depth-chart displacement is the untold second chapter: one starter-level arrival means a returning contributor is now competing or transferring out. Watch depth-chart competition in fall camp — that's where portal classes win or lose their billing. The boards are already there — one thread raises exactly this.
Source of record: Texas State signed a top-27 transfer-portal class — 34 additions headlined by Nate Yarnell (QB) from Pittsburgh and Holden Geriner (QB) from Auburn — the No. 1 portal class in the Pac-12 this cycle.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers7 bullish/portal items -- the case it's working.›
The 'portal class fills the gaps' believers -- upgrades at real positions of need.
“Pittsburg State transfer safety Jordan Rogers commits to Texas Tech”
On3 · 2026-06-25 · read ↗
“FBS Committee Proposes Changes to Transfer Portal Window, Timeline Revealed”
Bleacher Report · 2026-06-25 · read ↗
“Clemson football lands Texas State defensive lineman transfer”
Yahoo Sports · 2026-05-13 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'portal is a gamble' counter -- departure losses and the 'plug-and-play doesn't work' read.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards6% of recent board volume — quieter than the headlines.›
This event was in 58 of 1011 board posts (6%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"Hey I'm new to Texas state I'm a transfer junior just turned 21 on Aug 31st and I barely know ppl and just wanna get to know more people also I'm a guy and down for anything."
r/txstate ~ fan take
"I’m 20F and a Transfer Junior. I’m also a communication design major with a studio art minor. I recently found out that my graduation is going to be delayed by at least a semester"
r/txstate ~ fan take
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Following now · Texas State · Developing Confidence
Texas State: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
bullish — but with real dissent
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics2 doubt takes
Believers9 bull takes
💬 fans: 11% volume
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
G.J. Kinne enters his fourth season with a 7-6 record and a reshaped unit, balancing the momentum of an 8-5 2023 season with the challenge of sustaining it in the Pac-12.
Source of record: Texas State: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers9 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
“2026 College Football Rankings: Ole Miss Rises After Win Over LSU, Texas Stays Atop”
foxsports.com · 2026-09-21 · read ↗
“Texas State football grades: Passing marks all around after Bobcats' statement win over UNT”
sports.yahoo.com · 2026-09-21 · read ↗
“UNT coach Neal Brown's comments on officiating following Texas State game prompt review”
sports.yahoo.com · 2026-09-21 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“NAU at Montana State: Who Has More to Worry About After…” — the real counter.›
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
“NAU at Montana State: Who Has More to Worry About After Lackluster Week 3?”
Beat writer · 2026-09-21 · read ↗
“Week 3 Serves as Reality Check For Multiple College Football Programs”
Dave Campbell's Texas Football · 2026-09-20 · read ↗
💬The boards11% of recent board volume — quieter than the headlines.›
This event was in 111 of 1011 board posts (11%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"Hello all, I just started at Texas state this semester and can not find Texas state shirts big enough for me and I feel out of place at games not wearing a TXST shirt. I am looking"
r/txstate ~ fan take
"Hello, are there any groups that meet up in San Marcos that are either open to recent alumni, or that have members in there twenties? I am wanting to get involved with something, b"
r/txstate ~ fan take
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Rival pulse
UTSA
Uneasy-10
I-35 Rivalry
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Game day
The experience
Texas State is the Sun Belt program whose 2012 FBS reclassification + 2023 8-5 + GJ Kinne era + Jim Wacker Stadium identity define what most-recent-FBS-newcomer-ascent looks like.
Offense: StrongRun/Pass: Run-heavy, ground-controlTempo: Methodical, ball-control
Open questions
The story
Roster
Roster Reload - Texas State
2026 snapshot - 2026-09-22Returning Production76%High continuity
Talent Composite#82 nationally247 composite 624.8
Portal Additions18Primary repair: OT
Portal Losses21Primary pressure: S
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#74Depth class
Full roster (109 players)
DBAmarion Atwood, Chase Davis, Christopher Jones, Cordarian Powell, Craig Royal Jr., Dexter Ricks Jr., Greg Gipson Jr., Jayden Bradley, Jayden Flournoy, Jayden Lawton, John Smith, Michael Patterson, Ryan Nolan, Skylar Lewis, Trez Moore, Will Mitchell II
DLBlake Isbell, Braylon Young, Bryce Carter, Cam Christian, Chancellor Owens, Colt Sparks, Cullen Thompson, D'Ante Keys, Donterry Russell, Emmanuel Peter, J.P. Deeter, Jason Patterson, Javarius Bell, Jaylen Harris, Jo'Laison Landry, Jonathan Davis, Josiah Graham, Jussiah Ali, Kaleb James, Mekhi Buchanan, Phillip Bradford, Simeon Garner, Ta'Derius Collins, Tae Woody
LBAyden Jones, Blaine Carver, Cole Nilles, Darius Davis, Javante Mackey, Jordan Sample, TJ Burkhalter, Terrence Cooks II, Treylin Payne
OLAidin Rhodes, Alan Grimme, Amari Smith, Ameer Ross, Bamidele Badusi, Cameron Schultz, Eric Perkins, Etueni Ropati, Jayden Luckett, Jaylen Early, Justin DeLeon, Kirk Gildon, Mikel Udengwu, Preston Ward, Rasheed Jackson, Sully Burns, Teagan Lindsey, Terrance Brown Jr., Tyler Norris, William Boone
Offseason moves
The Offseason Ledger · Texas State
1 verified update · portal · recruiting · staff · news- Coaching
UNT coach's officiating comments reviewed
Neal Brown went public with officiating gripes after losing to a Texas State squad riding a top-27 transfer class — G.J. Kinne's building something real in C-USA, and the complaints are the receipt.
Who's moved
Transfer portal snapshot
-0.4 net portal points
(raw ledger: -7.8 — unweighted, no position adjustment)OT+7.1
need filled
S-5.6
starter risk
IOL-3.7
CB+3.5
RB-3.5
low confidence
EDGE-3.5
LB+3.3
QB-3.3
DL-2.4
WR+0.3
K+0.0
Top commits
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★☆☆
LaKeyleon Graves
#586 national
★★★☆☆
Xavier Warren
#665 national
Profiles like a typical incoming wide receiver — 18 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Cullen Thompson
#731 national
Where they're from
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
20
TX · 15MS · 2CA · 1LA · 1OK · 1
TX leads the 2026 class with 15 commits. National footprint reaching 5 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
79 signees across 10 states, 2023-2026. TX leads the pull.
Miles from home
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Texas State player grew up 216 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
33rd-closest to home in FBS
of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%154–450 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi11%11 of 104 players
Farthest1,459 miCole Nilles · Philadelphia, PA
Closest1 miDarius Davis · San Marcos, TX
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Bobcat Stadium (TX). Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 104 of 109 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Recruiting buzz
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] Texas State Defeats Rice 41-10
[Game Thread] Armed Forces Bowl: Texas State vs. Rice (1:00 PM ET)
[Postgame Thread] Texas State Defeats ULM 31-14
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Belief history
↓
Fan confidence a bit lower than recent years
36th percentile among FBS programs
Fans vs. market
Fan vs. market≈
36th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
6.5
Vegas O/U wins
(41st among FBS)
(41st among FBS)
Fan mood aligned with market consensus
Win total consensus · 1 book
Turnover luck
Fumble luck
50% recovery rate on their own fumbles — below the ~52% league baseline.
3 of 6 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Takeaway conversion
12% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — below the ~19% league average, and due for more.
2 interceptions of 16 disrupted passes (14 deflected, 2 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
Penalty battle
19 penalties committed, 24 drawn on opponents — netting a 41-yard field-position edge.
200 penalty yards committed vs. 241 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
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