Next game: at Oregon State
Oregon State’s best edge on Texas State is red zone
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Texas State offense against Oregon State defense
Oregon State offense against Texas State defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.46 EPA/play | 8 | 8 | 156 / 232 | 67.2 | 1933 #28 FBS | 8.3 | 18 #14 FBS | 5 | 158.5 | 63 | 74.2 | 8.4 | 3.7 | |
Yards by week → ScramblerMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. Impact starter — 232 pass attempts and 85 carries in 8 games, about as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week. This week's matchup — QB Jackson extends plays on the move until something opens up. Mandal is the one who operates within the system without forcing anything. Season receipt Rush usage26.8% 70th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush yards / carry5.1 91th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Brad Jackson's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed Merchant · +0.31 EPA/play | 4 | 8 | 129 | 922 #10 FBS | 7.1 | 5 | 76 | 11.7 | 15.6 | |
Yards by week → Speed merchantCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. Starter — 129 carries and 17 catches in 8 games, more touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB Jr. hits the crease and outruns the angle. Luke is the one who wins in space out of the backfield. Season receipt Yards / carry7.3 96th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate3.9% bottom 39th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Torrance Burgess Jr.'s full player page | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.41 EPA/play | 6 | 6 | 67 | 321 | 4.8 | 5 | 57 | 13.6 | 10.6 | |
Yards by week → Balanced back· Boom-or-bustPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 67 carries and 4 catches in 6 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Jackson does a little of everything without one standout trait. Luke is the one who wins in space out of the backfield. Season receipt Yards / carry5.1 bottom 42th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate7.5% 84th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Davian Jackson's full player page | ||||||||||
| +0.13 EPA/play | 5 | 7 | 38 | 196 | 5.2 | 1 | 22 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.26 EPA/play | 1 | 8 | 41 | 467 | 11.4 | 5 #39 FBS | 67 | |
Yards by week → Slot technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Starter — 41 catches and 3 carries in 8 games, more catches a game than most FBS receivers who play every week. This week's matchup — WR Jr. wins underneath on volume and route precision. Avit is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Reception volume41 91th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.3 bottom 24th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Chris Dawn Jr.'s full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.61 EPA/play | 11 | 7 | 30 | 402 | 13.4 | 3 | 63 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 30 catches and 1 carry in 7 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Beau Sparks's full player page | ||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.47 EPA/play | 3 | 6 | 13 | 250 | 19.2 | 2 | 72 | |
Yards by week → Deep threatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. This week's matchup — WR Sample beats you over the top. Avit is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception16.6 81th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Plays like View Zechariah Sample's full player page | ||||||||
| Deep Threat · +1.34 EPA/play | 2 | 5 | 12 | 214 | 17.8 | 0 | 31 | |
Yards by week → Deep threatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. This week's matchup — WR Evans beats you over the top. Avit is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception18.7 93th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)1.3 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kylen Evans's full player page | ||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.49 EPA/play | 13 | 6 | 12 | 168 | 14 | 0 | 41 | |
Yards by week → Deep threatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. This week's matchup — WR Cusano beats you over the top. Avit is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception16.5 80th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tucker Cusano's full player page | ||||||||
| Red-Zone Weapon · +1.43 EPA/play | 18 | 6 | 11 | 138 | 12.5 | 3 | 22 | |
Yards by week → Red-zone weaponThe first read called near the goal line — size and catch radius do the rest. This week's matchup — TE Stamey is the first read once you cross the 20. Appleget is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt TD rate27.3% 98th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)1.4 100th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ty Stamey's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.73 EPA/play | 16 | 4 | 7 | 70 | 10 | 1 | 41 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.72 EPA/play | 14 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 1 | 10 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 56 | 8 | 28 | 11 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 3 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Starter — 28 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate23.2% 76th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tymere Jackson's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 5 | 8 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 19 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate5.3% bottom 19th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Donterry Russell's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 6 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2023 class View Jo'Laison Landry's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 44 | 7 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight308 lb 80th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Phillip Bradford's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 90 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Chancellor Owens's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 4 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Tae Woody's full player page | |||||||
| 91 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 1 | |
| 96 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 33 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 16 | 8 | 47 | 16 | 31 | 5.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 47 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Terrence Cooks II's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 15 | 7 | 37 | 17 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 37 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Ayden Jones's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 12 | 8 | 33 | 14 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume33 bottom 40th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 21th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Javante Mackey's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 29 | 7 | 24 | 7 | 17 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume24 bottom 22th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate4.2% 64th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Treylin Payne's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 10 | 6 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.7 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume15 bottom 10th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Cole Nilles's full player page | |||||||||
| 23 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 9 | 8 | 56 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Box safety· Takeaway threatLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Impact starter — 56 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume56 98th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jayden Bradley's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 3 | 8 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 34 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2025 class View Craig Royal Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 2 | 7 | 33 | 9 #4 FBS | 1 | 1 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 33 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate27.3% 100th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Trez Moore's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 19 | 7 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 32 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate3.1% bottom 27th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Michael Patterson's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 7 | 4 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate10.3% 63th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Ryan Nolan's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | — | 8 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate13.0% 75th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jayden Lawton's full player page | |||||||
| 20 | 6 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 26 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 24 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 36 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 22 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 38 | 7 | 8/12 | 66.7 | 36/36 | 60 | 51 |
| 41 | 2 | 0/3 | 0 | 1/2 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 8 | 20 | 742 | 37.1 | 53 | 7 | 0 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.13 EPA/play | 5 | 7 | 9 | 194 | 21.6 | 1 | 100 |
| Balanced Back · +0.41 EPA/play | 6 | 6 | 7 | 127 | 18.1 | 0 | 23 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 5 | 6 | 136 | 22.7 | 1 | 77 | |
| Deep Threat · +0.47 EPA/play | 3 | 6 | 4 | 32 | 8 | 0 | 23 |
Biggest plays from Texas State’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Texas State’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 8:07 · Utah State down 8, ties itAnthony Garcia finds Kaina Watson for a 6-yard touchdownUtah State at Texas State, week 8Q4, 8:07 · Utah State 17, Texas State 170Anthony Garcia, with no passes this season before the game, throws the game-tying touchdown pass0Anthony Garcia, with no passes this season before the game, throws the game-tying touchdown passAnthony Garcia, with no passes this season before the game, throws the game-tying touchdown passA.Garcia pass complete short right to K.Watson caught at TXST00, for 6 yards to the TXST00 touchdown J.Jacobs pass attempt Successful▶Watch from this play
CBS Sports College Football
Q1, 10:58 · Texas State down 3, takes the leadTexas State scores a touchdownUtah State at Texas State, week 8Q1, 10:58 · Texas State 7, Utah State 3100Kickoff return touchdown100Kickoff return touchdownKickoff return touchdownL.Rehkow kickoff 65 yards to the TXST00 J.Jenkins return 100 yards to the USU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football- Q3, 10:10 · Texas State down 2, takes the leadBrad Jackson runs 3 yards for a touchdownUtah State at Texas State, week 8Q3, 10:10 · Texas State 14, Utah State 9Go-ahead score for Texas State in the third quarterGo-ahead score for Texas State in the third quarterB.Jackson rush left for 3 yards gain to the USU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
- Q3, 9:19 · Utah State down 5Utah State is sackedUtah State at Texas State, week 8Q3, 9:19 · Utah State 9, Texas State 149-14score after the play9-14score after the playG.Brosterhous sacked for loss of 1 yard to the USU18 (D.Russell, T.Payne)▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
Q1, 10:31 · Texas tiedArch Manning finds Cam Coleman for a 6-yard touchdownTexas State at Texas, week 1Q1, 10:31 · Texas 7, Texas State 0Texas opened the scoringTexas opened the scoringA. Manning pass to C. Coleman for 6 yds, for a TD (G. Spetic kick)▶Watch from this play
- Q1, 4:14 · Texas up 6Arch Manning finds Ryan Wingo for an 8-yard touchdownTexas State at Texas, week 1Q1, 4:14 · Texas 14, Texas State 014-0score after the play14-0score after the playA. Manning pass to R. Wingo for 8 yds, for a TD (G. Spetic kick)▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Texas State lost at Boise State after being 95% to win; the closest win was against Utah State, down to 35%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Texas State during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Texas State
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · Texas StateTorrance Burgess Jr. leads Texas State with 922 rushing yards through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+21 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Texas State fields an elite run-heavy offense behind a leaky defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Texas State reads strongest in passing EPA (top 6%) and EPA / play (top 10%); the crux lives in red-zone defense, where Texas State sits at the 14th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Texas State is worth +5.2 points more at home than on the road.
Top third of FBS, 67th percentile of 133 programs
48% at home, 22% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (22-24 home, 11-38 away). Interval ±3.9.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Texas State has beaten the number by +1.9 more at home than away over 102 games. That is inside the ±6.1 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Bobcat Stadium (TX) seats 30,000 and has averaged 69% full (20,621, 29 games reported). Visitors cover a median 583 miles to get here since 2018 — 33rd-longest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 11% of the 2026 roster (11 of 104 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 54 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Torrance Burgess Jr. and Davian Jackson split the carries (127/192 vs 65/192) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Chris Dawn Jr. (WR) and Ty Stamey (TE) split the targets (63/74 vs 11/74) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Ty Stamey produces in bigger chunks.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Texas State actually scores
90th percentile quality, 12th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Texas State’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 55th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 47th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Texas State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
74th percentile success on standard downs, 100th on passing downs — a 26-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Texas State by half
1st-half offense ranks 97th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 58th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Texas State’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.27; 89th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.09. The widest gap came in week 5: 0.35 raw vs. 0.09 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How Texas State’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Texas State’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (70.9% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 207-play sample) — mid-pack, 124 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Texas State’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.1% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 248-play sample) — mid-pack, 111 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
40% recovery rate on the fumbles they've forced — below the ~48% league baseline.
2 of 5 forced fumbles recovered; 5 of 10 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
14% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — about the ~18% league average.
5 interceptions of 37 disrupted passes (32 deflected, 5 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
50 penalties committed, 55 drawn on opponents — netting a 77-yard field-position edge.
438 penalty yards committed vs. 515 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Texas State
Most similar programs · Texas StateReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Historical echo
Texas State’s breakout has happened before — and 1 of the 4 closest programs couldn’t hold it.
Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Weather
Bobcat Stadium (TX), San Marcos, TX
Usual during the game around Nov 14: 64°, between 52° and 74° in about 7 in 10 games (28 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 68°, and 8 in 10 ran between 51° and 87° (53 of 58 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.