3identity shift
East Carolina's fanbase identity is shifting
Blake Harrell begins his tenure with a 9-4 record anchoring a program shifting its identity, as East Carolina fans build confidence in a new era under the former offensive coordinator.
East Carolina9-4Latest
The model has East Carolina at #44 — the fanbase hasn't weighed in yet.
Fanbase belief
Quiet
signal pending this week
The model
#44
CFB Zeitgeist · +4.9
✓ measured3Hope-Doping·Offseason
East Carolina is the program that fills a purple cathedral in a tobacco town nobody plans to visit — and just answered the latest round of doubt with a nine-win season and a bowl trophy.
Title DroughtSince 2008 · 17 yrs
Pirate Nation has heard it for decades — too small, too remote, too G5 to matter. ECU fans treat that doubt as fuel, and the 2025 nine-win season was the latest receipt they shove back across the tabl…
offseason · quiet
Roster Reload - East Carolina
2026 snapshot - 2026-08-06Returning Production51%Moderate continuity
Talent Composite#78 nationally247 composite 611.5
Portal Additions24Primary repair: CB
Portal Losses26Primary pressure: DL
Draft Loss1NFL Draft departures (1)
Recruiting Reload#94Depth class
WRin 4 - Ray Ray Josephout 4 - Yannick SmithDowngrade
current room: 191 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Sin 3 - Christian Petersonout 3 - Ja'Marley RiddleEven
IOLin 3 - Brandon Bestout 3 - Emmanuel PokuEven
current room: 310 lbs avg (2025 roster)
QBin 2 - Emory Williamsout 3 - Katin HouserDowngrade
current room: 217 lbs avg (2025 roster)
CBin 3 - Rae'mon Mosbyout 2 - Jordy LoweryEven
current room: 181 lbs avg (2025 roster)
RBin 2 - Michael Allenout 2 - London MontgomeryEven
current room: 199 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · at Alabama · Sat Sep 5 · 16:00 UTC
The experience
East Carolina is the American Athletic program whose Skip Holtz era + Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium purple haze + 2024 8-5 turnaround under Blake Harrell define what eastern-North-Carolina football identity looks like.
Offense: SolidTempo: Methodical, ball-controlDefense: Elite
East Carolina's 2026 Season Projected to Reach 10-3 with Bowl Game Appearance
The team's balanced portal churn and moderate continuity suggest a competitive season, with a ceiling of 10 wins and a bowl game appearance.
- Roster reloadEast Carolina has a balanced portal churn with 24 transfers in and 26 out, indicating moderate roster instability but also opportunities for new talent integration.
- ScheduleThe team's base scenario projects an 8-5 record with a bowl game appearance, while the ceiling scenario forecasts a 10-3 record and a bowl game.
Data as of 2026-08-03
·
Validated against program evidence
Pirate Pete is at the helm.
East Carolina · the story right now
16 storylines developing
What East Carolina's coordinator hires is really about
the open questiondo the new coordinators fit the roster?
coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew
Blake Harrell begins his first season with a 9-4 winning record under his belt, anchoring East Carolina's identity in a program reshaping its future under his leadership.
what happenedEast Carolina: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
identitythis cycle~readnew
Blake Harrell begins his tenure with a 9-4 record anchoring a program shifting its identity, as East Carolina fans build confidence in a new era under the former offensive coordinator.
what happenedEast Carolina: the fanbase's identity shifting. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
coachingthis cycle~readnew
Blake Harrell begins his first season with 51% production returning and #78 talent, tasked with proving the 9-4 momentum under Mike Houston wasn't just a one-year peak.
what happenedBlake Harrell took over as East Carolina's head coach, replacing Mike Houston. ✓ fact
the contextreplaces 5-year head coach Mike Houston (26-31)
narrative tension · our read
underdogthis cycle✓ factnew
Anthony Smith produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
narrative tension · our read
garbage timethis cycle✓ factnew
Parker Jenkins sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach, and his efficiency in competitive snaps sits below the position baseline -- the numbers lean on the opponent giving up.
narrative tension · our read
garbage timethis cycle✓ factnew
TJ Engleman Jr. sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach, and his efficiency in competitive snaps sits below the position baseline -- the numbers lean on the opponent giving up.
narrative tension · our read
money downthis cycle✓ factnew
Yannick Smith is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
narrative tension · our read
portal2026-04-23~readnew
Harrell's first portal class vaults ECU 26 spots nationally, diagnosing RB and CB as the turnaround's foundation after a 9-4 season with Cloud and Benton gone.
what happenedEast Carolina signed a top-80 transfer-portal class — 24 additions headlined by Emory Williams (QB) from Miami and Ray Ray Joseph (WR) from Miami. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew
Blake Harrell begins his first season with a 9-4 winning record as a foundation, but a coordinator change reshaping a unit raises questions about sustaining the 2024 turnaround.
what happenedEast Carolina: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Anthony Smith is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Brock Spalding is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
narrative tension · our read
short yardagethis cycle~attributednew
London Montgomery: a short yardage signal screened this season.
narrative tension · our read
closerthis cycle~attributednew
Marlon Gunn: a closer signal screened this season.
narrative tension · our read
closerthis cycle~attributednew
Parker Jenkins: a closer signal screened this season.
narrative tension · our read
closerthis cycle~attributednew
TJ Engleman Jr.: a closer signal screened this season.
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Yannick Smith is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
narrative tension · our read
How past storylines here turned out
AnsweredEast Carolina's head-coaching hire held for another season.
Died downEast Carolina's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
The story
The Offseason Ledger · East Carolina
2 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- Coaching
USF hires Josh Aldridge as DC
USF poaching Aldridge stings — Blake Harrell is still building the staff infrastructure to match a top-78 portal class, and losing a DC option to a conference rival before the depth chart stabilizes is exactly the kind of drag that slows a rebuild at the line level.
- Portal
IOL Niko Paic transfer commits from Valparaiso
FCS interior body — ECU keeps stacking developmental linemen, the kind of move that compounds over years.
Transfer portal snapshot
-5.3 net portal points
(raw ledger: -14.2 — unweighted, no position adjustment)DL-10.8
starter risk
OT-5.8
QB-3.6
P+3.4
low confidence
WR-3.0
S+2.2
CB+1.9
LS+1.0
low confidence
IOL+0.7
RB+0.6
TE-0.5
LB-0.2
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★☆☆
Terande Spencer
#665 national
★★★☆☆
Chad Fairchild
#1030 national
★★★☆☆
Ethan Wilson
#1114 national
Fan vs. market↑
100th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
7.5
Vegas O/U wins
(60th among FBS)
(60th among FBS)
Fans 40pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 3 books
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total3 booksO/U 7.5
CFP championship#69 in field+72500
AAC title#3 in market+580
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
East Carolina · Next-Season Outcome Band
East Carolina · Next-Season Outcome BandFloor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 5-7
Base 8-5
Ceiling 10-3
floor5-7No postseason.
base8-5Bowl game.
ceiling10-3Bowl game.
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
How the room reacted
Following now · East Carolina · Developing Confidence
East Carolina: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
East Carolina: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
near-unanimous belief
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers5 bull takes
🎪 drama: simmering💬 fans: 50% volume
The saga so far~4 months old
last weekUSF hires Josh Aldridge as DC — Reported
Apr 23IOL Niko Paic transfer commits from Valparaiso — CFBD /player/portal
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Blake Harrell begins his first season with a 9-4 winning record under his belt, anchoring East Carolina's identity in a program reshaping its future under his leadership.
Source of record: East Carolina: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
🎪The circus“Man arrested after allegedly threatening 'Columbine-style' mass ” — the saga that won't quit.›
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
“Man arrested after allegedly threatening 'Columbine-style' mass shooting at East Carolina University”
wfmynews2.com · 2026-07-27 · read ↗
📣Believers5 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
“East Carolina whips Charlotte 48-22 for first win in the rivalry”
NC Football News · 2026-07-30 · read ↗
“ECU roundup: Best, Robinson named to East-West Bowl 1000 list”
reflector.com · 2026-07-30 · read ↗
“Best And Robinson Earn Spot On East-West Bowl 1000 Watch List”
East Carolina University Athletics · 2026-07-29 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards1 board mentions — too thin to call a stance.›
Only 1 of 2 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
"Fly the Jolly Roger! 🏴☠️ The East Carolina Pirates are back to playing a fun brand of football again under Blake Harrell. After a lot of change this offseason, can the Pirates rem"
r/ECUPirates ~ fan take
"We recently sat down with Stephen Igoe, Publisher of Hoist the Colours covering East Carolina Athletics on the 247 Sports Network to preview the 2025 East Carolina Pirates Football"
r/ECUPirates ~ fan take
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Following now · East Carolina · Developing Confidence
East Carolina: the fanbase's identity shifting.
East Carolina: the fanbase's identity shifting.
near-unanimous belief
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers5 bull takes
🎪 drama: simmering💬 fans: 50% volume
The saga so far~4 months old
last weekUSF hires Josh Aldridge as DC — Reported
Apr 23IOL Niko Paic transfer commits from Valparaiso — CFBD /player/portal
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Blake Harrell begins his tenure with a 9-4 record anchoring a program shifting its identity, as East Carolina fans build confidence in a new era under the former offensive coordinator.
Source of record: East Carolina: the fanbase's identity shifting.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
🎪The circus“Man arrested after allegedly threatening 'Columbine-style' mass ” — the saga that won't quit.›
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
“Man arrested after allegedly threatening 'Columbine-style' mass shooting at East Carolina University”
wfmynews2.com · 2026-07-27 · read ↗
📣Believers5 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
“East Carolina whips Charlotte 48-22 for first win in the rivalry”
NC Football News · 2026-07-30 · read ↗
“ECU roundup: Best, Robinson named to East-West Bowl 1000 list”
reflector.com · 2026-07-30 · read ↗
“Best And Robinson Earn Spot On East-West Bowl 1000 Watch List”
East Carolina University Athletics · 2026-07-29 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards1 board mentions — too thin to call a stance.›
Only 1 of 2 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
"Fly the Jolly Roger! 🏴☠️ The East Carolina Pirates are back to playing a fun brand of football again under Blake Harrell. After a lot of change this offseason, can the Pirates rem"
r/ECUPirates ~ fan take
"We recently sat down with Stephen Igoe, Publisher of Hoist the Colours covering East Carolina Athletics on the 247 Sports Network to preview the 2025 East Carolina Pirates Football"
r/ECUPirates ~ fan take
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Warming
Four of five. The board favors this trend.
Streak W2Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 7-3
The forecast
Opens Sep 5
vs Alabama · away
Season line7.5 winsover +125
SolidMethodical, ball-controlElite
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Rival pulse
NC State
Mixed+3
ECU-NC State
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
18
NC · 6GA · 5SC · 4FL · 2VA · 1
NC leads the 2026 class with 6 commits. National footprint reaching 5 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
84 signees across 15 states, 2023-2026. GA leads the pull.
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
National spotlight
7 games with TV coverage: 5 ESPN, 1 conference network, 1 streaming
Kickoff windows: 1 afternoon, 5 primetime
Fumble luck
Recovering 33% of their own fumbles — running cold vs. the ~51% league rate.
3 of 9 own fumbles recovered themselves; 7 of 12 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
Takeaway conversion
Converting 21% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~19% league rate.
8 interceptions of 39 disrupted passes (31 deflected, 8 intercepted), 2025 only.
Penalty battle
Losing the penalty battle: 94 penalties committed vs. 74 drawn on opponents, a 159-yard deficit.
799 penalty yards committed vs. 640 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
The Pulse on East Carolina
—
Pirate Pete is at the helm.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Purple Haze"
— East Carolina fanbase · recurring line
The Fever Year
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Belief checklow signal
~ our readNot enough East Carolina chatter this week to read the room.
We read 18 East Carolina posts this week — not enough to call the room. Check back during the season.
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Radio, beat writers & editorial13 posts
News & campus coverage4 posts
Fanbase Health Index · East Carolina · medium confidence
Fanbase Health Index · East Carolina · medium confidenceGrowing (70)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 9-4 (69% win rate)70
Volume — 116 effective signal-N71
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#22 / 138 · 85th pct32.7
Pts allowed/game#22 / 138 · 85th pct20.1
Total yards/gm#21 / 136 · 85th pct449.0
Rush yards/gm#45 / 136 · 68th pct176.3
Pass yards/gm#24 / 136 · 83rd pct272.7
Yards allowed/gm#54 / 136 · 61st pct351.0
Rush yds allowed/gm#25 / 136 · 82nd pct120.2
Sacks#42 / 136 · 70th pct30
Interceptions#62 / 136 · 55th pct10
3rd-down conv#15 / 136 · 90th pct47.2%
All 98 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team5837449.0/gm5.84/play#21 / 136 · 85th pct#14 / 70 · 81st pct#3 / 14 · 86th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp4563351.0/gm5.13/play#54 / 136 · 61st pct#39 / 70 · 46th pct#2 / 14 · 93rd pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Rush yards
Team2292176.3/gm2.29/play#45 / 136 · 68th pct#21 / 70 · 71st pct#8 / 14 · 50th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp1563120.2/gm1.76/play#25 / 136 · 82nd pct#22 / 70 · 70th pct#1 / 14 · 100th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Rush carries
Team55943.0/gm#13 / 136 · 91st pct#6 / 70 · 93rd pct#4 / 14 · 79th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp43533.5/gm#48 / 136 · 65th pct#34 / 70 · 53rd pct#1 / 14 · 100th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Rush TDs
Team312.4/gm#19 / 136 · 87th pct#10 / 70 · 87th pct#4 / 14 · 79th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp110.8/gm#14 / 136 · 90th pct#11 / 70 · 86th pct#1 / 14 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team3545272.7/gm3.55/play#24 / 136 · 83rd pct#18 / 70 · 76th pct#4 / 14 · 79th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp3000230.8/gm3.37/play#98 / 136 · 29th pct#51 / 70 · 29th pct#10 / 14 · 36th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Pass attempts
Team44033.8/gm#32 / 136 · 77th pct#18 / 70 · 76th pct#4 / 14 · 79th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp45434.9/gm#116 / 136 · 15th pct#57 / 70 · 20th pct#12 / 14 · 21st pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Completions
Team28521.9/gm#33 / 136 · 76th pct#21 / 70 · 71st pct#5 / 14 · 71st pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp28822.2/gm#123 / 136 · 10th pct#60 / 70 · 16th pct#12 / 14 · 21st pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Pass TDs
Team221.7/gm#48 / 136 · 65th pct#30 / 70 · 59th pct#6 / 14 · 64th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp161.2/gm#40 / 136 · 71st pct#27 / 70 · 63rd pct#3 / 14 · 86th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Passer rating
Team144.4144.4#38 / 136 · 73rd pct#27 / 70 · 63rd pct#5 / 14 · 71st pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp127.9127.9#54 / 136 · 61st pct#33 / 70 · 54th pct#3 / 14 · 86th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Interceptions thrown
Team60.5/gm#115 / 136 · 16th pct#60 / 70 · 16th pct#10 / 14 · 36th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp100.8/gm#70 / 136 · 49th pct#36 / 70 · 50th pct#9 / 14 · 43rd pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Sacks (def)
Team302.3/gm#42 / 136 · 70th pct#28 / 70 · 61st pct#3 / 14 · 86th pct#3 / 10 · 80th pct
Opp191.5/gm#27 / 136 · 81st pct#16 / 70 · 79th pct#5 / 14 · 71st pct#2 / 10 · 90th pct
Tackles for loss
Team1017.8/gm#6 / 136 · 96th pct#6 / 70 · 93rd pct#1 / 14 · 100th pct#2 / 10 · 90th pct
Opp695.3/gm#75 / 136 · 46th pct#39 / 70 · 46th pct#8 / 14 · 50th pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct
First downs
Team30323.3/gm#22 / 136 · 85th pct#16 / 70 · 79th pct#4 / 14 · 79th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp25019.2/gm#68 / 136 · 51st pct#40 / 70 · 44th pct#5 / 14 · 71st pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
3rd-down conv
Team947.2/gm#5 / 136 · 97th pct#4 / 70 · 96th pct#1 / 14 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp574.4/gm#15 / 136 · 90th pct#8 / 70 · 90th pct#1 / 14 · 100th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
3rd-down att
Team19915.3/gm#7 / 136 · 96th pct#5 / 70 · 94th pct#1 / 14 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp18714.4/gm#105 / 136 · 24th pct#54 / 70 · 24th pct#11 / 14 · 29th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
4th-down conv
Team151.2/gm#47 / 136 · 66th pct#28 / 70 · 61st pct#8 / 14 · 50th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp171.3/gm#100 / 136 · 27th pct#51 / 70 · 29th pct#6 / 14 · 64th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
4th-down att
Team322.5/gm#26 / 136 · 82nd pct#10 / 70 · 87th pct#7 / 14 · 57th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp382.9/gm#132 / 136 · 4th pct#66 / 70 · 7th pct#14 / 14 · 7th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Time of possession
Team368:1528:20/gm#81 / 136 · 41st pct#43 / 70 · 40th pct#9 / 14 · 43rd pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp411:4531:40/gm#115 / 136 · 16th pct#60 / 70 · 16th pct#12 / 14 · 21st pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Kicking & Punting
Field goals#31 / 135 · 78th pct16/19 (84.2%)
Extra points51/51
Punting#129 / 136 · 6th pct39.8 avg · 48 punts
Turnovers & special teams
Turnovers
Team141.1/gm#90 / 136 · 35th pct#40 / 70 · 44th pct#8 / 14 · 50th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp241.8/gm#118 / 136 · 14th pct#62 / 70 · 13th pct#11 / 14 · 29th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Fumbles lost
Team80.6/gm#25 / 136 · 82nd pct#9 / 70 · 89th pct#6 / 14 · 64th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp141.1/gm#135 / 136 · 1st pct#69 / 70 · 3rd pct#14 / 14 · 7th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
INT return TDs
Team10.1/gm#36 / 135 · 74th pct#19 / 70 · 74th pct#4 / 13 · 77th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp20.2/gm#105 / 136 · 24th pct#57 / 70 · 20th pct#11 / 14 · 29th pct#6 / 11 · 55th pct
INT return yards
Team21516.5/gm#22 / 136 · 85th pct#14 / 70 · 81st pct#3 / 14 · 86th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp685.2/gm#38 / 136 · 73rd pct#21 / 70 · 71st pct#3 / 14 · 86th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Punt ret yds
Team836.4/gm#100 / 136 · 27th pct#57 / 70 · 20th pct#10 / 14 · 36th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp1017.8/gm#58 / 136 · 58th pct#37 / 70 · 49th pct#6 / 14 · 64th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Punt ret TDs
Team00.0/gm#43 / 135 · 69th pct#23 / 70 · 69th pct#3 / 13 · 85th pct#4 / 9 · 67th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
Kick ret yds
Team28121.6/gm#103 / 136 · 25th pct#47 / 70 · 34th pct#12 / 14 · 21st pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp69953.8/gm#123 / 136 · 10th pct#64 / 70 · 10th pct#13 / 14 · 14th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Kick ret TDs
Team00.0/gm#40 / 136 · 71st pct#17 / 70 · 77th pct#4 / 14 · 79th pct#5 / 11 · 64th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
Penalty yards
Team79961.5/gm#26 / 136 · 82nd pct#13 / 70 · 83rd pct#3 / 14 · 86th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp64049.2/gm#56 / 136 · 60th pct#35 / 70 · 51st pct#6 / 14 · 64th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Other
Fumbles recovered#2 / 136 · 99th pct#2 / 70 · 99th pct#1 / 14 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct141.1/gm
Fourth down go rate#8 / 138 · 95th pct#4 / 70 · 96th pct#3 / 13 · 85th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct0.50.0/gm
Passes intercepted opponent#9 / 136 · 94th pct#5 / 70 · 94th pct#4 / 14 · 79th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct60.5/gm
Penalties#20 / 136 · 86th pct#7 / 70 · 91st pct#3 / 14 · 86th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct947.2/gm
Punt ret (opp)#26 / 136 · 82nd pct#18 / 70 · 76th pct#6 / 14 · 64th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct90.7/gm
H2 epa per play#30 / 142 · 80th pct#19 / 70 · 74th pct#5 / 13 · 69th pct0.20.0/gm
H1 epa per play opponent#38 / 167 · 78th pct#24 / 70 · 67th pct#2 / 13 · 92nd pct0.10.0/gm
H2 epa per play opponent#39 / 143 · 73rd pct#23 / 70 · 69th pct#3 / 13 · 85th pct0.10.0/gm
Penalties (opp)#60 / 136 · 57th pct#35 / 70 · 51st pct#7 / 14 · 57th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct745.7/gm
H1 epa per play#62 / 162 · 62nd pct#44 / 70 · 39th pct#9 / 13 · 38th pct0.20.0/gm
Interceptions (def)#62 / 136 · 55th pct#33 / 70 · 54th pct#6 / 14 · 64th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct100.8/gm
Recruiting rating#77 / 138 · 45th pct#67 / 70 · 6th pct#4 / 14 · 79th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct172.813.3/gm
Fumbles rec (def)#86 / 136 · 38th pct#50 / 70 · 30th pct#7 / 14 · 57th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct80.6/gm
Punt returns#86 / 136 · 38th pct#51 / 70 · 29th pct#6 / 14 · 64th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct131.0/gm
Kick returns#93 / 136 · 32nd pct#44 / 70 · 39th pct#10 / 14 · 36th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct161.2/gm
First down pass rate#94 / 215 · 57th pct#33 / 70 · 54th pct#5 / 13 · 69th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct0.50.0/gm
Red zone pass rate#99 / 154 · 36th pct#45 / 70 · 37th pct#9 / 13 · 38th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct0.30.0/gm
Kick ret (opp)#124 / 136 · 10th pct#65 / 70 · 9th pct#13 / 14 · 14th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct352.7/gm
Situational
3rd-down conversion
Off47.2%#15 / 136 · 90th pct#13 / 70 · 83rd pct#2 / 14 · 93rd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Def30.5%#9 / 136 · 94th pct#6 / 70 · 93rd pct#1 / 14 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
4th-down conversion
Off46.9%#102 / 136 · 26th pct#57 / 70 · 20th pct#12 / 14 · 21st pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Def44.7%#30 / 136 · 79th pct#16 / 70 · 79th pct#2 / 14 · 93rd pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Turnover margin#11 / 136 · 93rd pct#8 / 70 · 90th pct#2 / 14 · 93rd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct+0.77/gm
Sack rate (def)#70 / 136 · 49th pct#44 / 70 · 39th pct#6 / 14 · 64th pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct6.6%
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team564.3/gm#16 / 167 · 91st pct#11 / 70 · 86th pct#2 / 13 · 92nd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp433.3/gm#98 / 166 · 42nd pct#43 / 70 · 40th pct#4 / 13 · 77th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Red zone score %
Team80.4%80.4%#70 / 167 · 59th pct#38 / 70 · 47th pct#7 / 13 · 54th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp72.1%72.1%#35 / 166 · 80th pct#14 / 70 · 81st pct#4 / 13 · 77th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Points / drive
Team2.50.2/gm#31 / 167 · 82nd pct#24 / 70 · 67th pct#5 / 13 · 69th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp1.60.1/gm#32 / 166 · 81st pct#23 / 70 · 69th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Yards / drive
Team42.73.3/gm#57 / 167 · 66th pct#35 / 70 · 51st pct#9 / 13 · 38th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp37.12.9/gm#40 / 166 · 77th pct#23 / 70 · 69th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Plays / drive
Team7.10.5/gm#19 / 167 · 89th pct#9 / 70 · 89th pct#3 / 13 · 85th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp6.50.5/gm#66 / 166 · 61st pct#26 / 70 · 64th pct#2 / 13 · 92nd pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Three-and-out rate
Team9.9%9.9%#40 / 167 · 77th pct#21 / 70 · 71st pct#6 / 13 · 62nd pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp15.1%15.1%#59 / 166 · 65th pct#33 / 70 · 54th pct#4 / 13 · 77th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Rush rate over expected#54 / 145 · 63rd pct#19 / 70 · 74th pct#6 / 13 · 62nd pct+0.8%+0.8%
Havoc rate
Team19.3%19.3%#13 / 140 · 91st pct#10 / 70 · 87th pct#1 / 14 · 100th pct
Opp12.4%12.4%#24 / 140 · 84th pct#13 / 70 · 83rd pct#5 / 14 · 71st pct
Standard-downs success
Team49.6%49.6%#55 / 154 · 65th pct#33 / 70 · 54th pct#8 / 13 · 46th pct
Opp44.4%44.4%#31 / 172 · 83rd pct#19 / 70 · 74th pct#3 / 13 · 85th pct
Passing-downs success
Team37.9%37.9%#14 / 153 · 92nd pct#10 / 70 · 87th pct#4 / 13 · 77th pct
Opp30.0%30.0%#65 / 149 · 57th pct#33 / 70 · 54th pct#4 / 13 · 77th pct
Line yards / carry
Team2.92.9#64 / 143 · 56th pct#36 / 70 · 50th pct#8 / 13 · 46th pct
Opp2.52.5#11 / 155 · 94th pct#8 / 70 · 90th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Stuff rate
Team14.4%14.4%#15 / 143 · 90th pct#8 / 70 · 90th pct#5 / 13 · 69th pct
Opp29.7%29.7%#3 / 155 · 99th pct#2 / 70 · 99th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Power success rate
Team67.9%67.9%#81 / 137 · 42nd pct#42 / 70 · 41st pct#11 / 13 · 23rd pct
Opp48.6%48.6%#3 / 141 · 99th pct#3 / 70 · 97th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Efficiency
Completion %
Off64.8%#41 / 136 · 71st pct#25 / 70 · 66th pct#8 / 14 · 50th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Def63.4%#89 / 136 · 35th pct#46 / 70 · 36th pct#7 / 14 · 57th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Yards / attempt
Off8.1#32 / 136 · 77th pct#20 / 70 · 73rd pct#6 / 14 · 64th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Def6.6#42 / 136 · 70th pct#26 / 70 · 64th pct#3 / 14 · 86th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Yards / completion
Off12.4#39 / 136 · 72nd pct#19 / 70 · 74th pct#6 / 14 · 64th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Def10.4#18 / 136 · 88th pct#14 / 70 · 81st pct#1 / 14 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Yards / carry#89 / 136 · 35th pct#47 / 70 · 34th pct#12 / 14 · 21st pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct4.1
Yards / play#56 / 136 · 60th pct#36 / 70 · 50th pct#7 / 14 · 57th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct5.84
Scoring margin#20 / 136 · 86th pct#15 / 70 · 80th pct#3 / 14 · 86th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct+12.6/gm
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
Quarterbacks
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.29 EPA/play | 4 | 12 | 269 / 408 | 65.9 | 3300 #21 FBS | 8.1 | 19 #44 FBS | 6 | 146.3 | 61.6 | 7.9 | 2.9 | |
Yards by week → Pocket Passer· Money-downBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. saves his best for the money downs Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 97 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt8.1 67th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts INT rate1.5% 82th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like our readSustained Ascent: his CFB Index score shows two real climbs in a row — 22nd to 57th to 78th percentile among FBS QBs | |||||||||||||
| -0.13 EPA/play | 9 | 4 | 12 / 24 | 50 | 215 | 9.0 | 3 | 0 | 166.5 | 32 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
Running Backs
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.09 EPA/play | 7 | 12 | 156 | 742 | 4.8 | 7 | 51 | 16.9 | 12 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 4.3% (17/393) | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. The most common profile in its group this season — 186 of 349 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · sophomore View London Montgomery's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.07 EPA/play | 21 | 13 | 112 | 582 | 5.2 | 6 | 50 | 13.7 | 8.8 | 15.6 | 14.7 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 186 of 349 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2022 class View Marlon Gunn's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.05 EPA/play | 20 | 9 | 59 | 306 | 5.2 | 1 | 23 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 10.3 | 13.8 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry5.0 bottom 42th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate1.7% bottom 17th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View TJ Engleman Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · -0.11 EPA/play | 5 | 11 | 75 | 256 | 3.4 | 2 | 17 | 5.2 | 9.8 | 17.3 | 4 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry3.3 bottom 5th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate2.7% bottom 28th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Parker Jenkins's full player page | |||||||||||||
Receivers
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.55 EPA/play | 9 | 13 | 64 | 1053 #14 FBS | 16.5 | 7 #38 FBS | 72 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 23.4% (92/393) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception15.9 76th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume64 94th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 80th to 96th percentile among FBS WRs | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.83 EPA/play | 1 | 10 | 44 | 583 | 13.2 | 5 | 59 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 13.0% (51/393) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception13.6 53th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.8 91th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 52nd percentile among FBS WRs to the 76th | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.43 EPA/play | 10 | 13 | 42 | 554 | 13.2 | 3 | 55 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 15.5% (61/393) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2022 class our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 0th to 67th percentile among FBS WRs | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.51 EPA/play | 6 | 10 | 28 | 362 | 12.9 | 2 | 42 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 9.9% (39/393) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 177 of 223 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2023 class our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 74th percentile among FBS TEs, up from the 10th | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.70 EPA/play | 8 | 12 | 23 | 333 | 14.5 | 3 | 79 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 8.1% (32/393) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 177 of 223 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Jayvontay Conner's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.33 EPA/play | 19 | 11 | 10 | 182 | 18.2 | 1 | 46 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 4.8% (19/393) | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.32 EPA/play | 13 | 6 | 7 | 72 | 10.3 | 0 | 14 | 2.2 | 5.6 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.10 EPA/play | 81 | 3 | 6 | 69 | 11.5 | 0 | 17 | 4.2 | 8.2 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · -0.19 EPA/play | 12 | 9 | 13 | 32 | 2.5 | 0 | 11 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 4.6% (18/393) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception7.9 bottom 7th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)-0.2 bottom 1th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jaquaize Pettaway's full player page | |||||||||||
Defensive Line
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 7 | 13 | 58 | 30 | 7 | 1.5 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate12.1% bottom 40th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Samuel Dankah's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 54 | 13 | 42 | 20 | 10 | 6 #74 FBS | 4 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · senior our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 44 | 12 | 31 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 2 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · junior View Preston Carr's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 8 | 11 | 26 | 14 | 6.5 | 5 | 3 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate25.0% 86th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jasiyah Robinson's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 35 | 10 | 21 | 8 | 4.5 | 1 | 0 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate21.4% 76th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Kieran Davis's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 99 | 10 | 19 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate10.5% bottom 33th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Justin Benton's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 9 | 12 | 17 | 8 | 6.5 | 1 | 3 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate38.2% 99th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 66th percentile among FBS IDLs, up from the 34th | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 93 | 8 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 2.5 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate37.5% 99th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Rion Roseborough's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 40 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 3.5 | 1 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate45.5% 100th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Kendrick DuJour's full player page | |||||||
| 52 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | |
Linebackers
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 11 | 13 | 60 | 29 | 31 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · sophomore our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 15th percentile to the 39th among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 10 | 11 | 54 | 25 | 29 | 7.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · senior our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 17th to 47th percentile among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 5 | 12 | 40 | 17 | 23 | 3.5 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate7.5% 96th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume40 bottom 35th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ryheem Craig's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 42 | 12 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2023 class our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 0th percentile among FBS LBs to the 25th | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 1 | 10 | 20 | 8 | 12 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · junior View Jackson Barker's full player page | |||||||||
| 25 | 5 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 43 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Defensive Backs
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rover | 2 | 12 | 70 | 6 | 3 #56 FBS | 4 | 0 |
Rover· Takeaway threatHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.6% 53th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Ja'Marley Riddle's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 3 | 13 | 54 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Hybrid Nickel· Takeaway threatMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2020 class View Teagan Wilk's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 22 | 13 | 43 | 3 | 0 | 3.5 | 1 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate7.0% bottom 45th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readBounce-Back: his CFB Index score shows a real arc: 51st percentile among FBS Ss, fell to 3rd, now back up to 43rd | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 35 | 10 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Ayden Duncanson's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 24 | 11 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid Nickel· Takeaway threatMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · senior View TyMir Brown's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 15 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate14.8% 82th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jordy Lowery's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 4 | 13 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 4.5 | 0 |
Box Safety· Takeaway threatLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume27 bottom 24th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 4th percentile to the 28th among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 20 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 5 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2023 class View Kamaurri McKinley's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 17 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 14th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Rasheed Reason's full player page | |||||||
| 12 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 28 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 26 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Kicking
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 30 | 12 | 16/19 | 84.2 | 43/43 | 91 | 50 |
Punting
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 7 | 20 | 846 | 42.3 | 53 | 4 | 1 | |
| 37 | 8 | 23 | 882 | 38.3 | 50 | 5 | 1 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
Kick Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.09 EPA/play | 7 | 12 | 5 | 114 | 22.8 | 0 | 53 |
| Balanced Back · -0.11 EPA/play | 5 | 11 | 5 | 96 | 19.2 | 0 | 27 |
Punt Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +4.44 EPA/play | 24 | 9 | 10 | 83 | 8.3 | 0 | 20 |
| +0.33 EPA/play | 19 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
2025 stat leaders
final
2025 stat leaders
1.
Katin Houser
QB
3,300 yds (pass)
2.
Ja'Marley Riddle
DB
70.0 tot (def)
3.
DJ Johnson Jr.
LB
60.0 tot (def)
4.
Samuel Dankah
DL
58.0 tot (def)
5.
Teagan Wilk
DB
54.0 tot (def)
Roster
2025
31
players carry a qualified CFB Index Score this season.
Anthony Smith
WR
#22 of 485
Samuel Dankah
IDL
#25 of 330
Ja'Marley Riddle
S
#42 of 544
Zion Wilson
EDGE
#50 of 420
Yannick Smith
WR
#132 of 485
Katin Houser
QB
#41 of 146
+25 more
East Carolina · 2025 schedule & results9-4Brutal slateAverage opponent win rate 48% · 4 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 28 | #75 | #24 | +14 | @NC State | L 17–24 144 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #53 | #229 | -30.5 | Campbell | W 56–3 81 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #70 | #121 | -7.5 | @Coastal Carolina | W 38–0 151 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #63 | #30 | +5.5 | BYU | L 13–34 137 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 25 | #68 | #70 | -3.5 | Army | W 28–6 137 | 3-2 | 1-0 |
| 7 | Oct 9 | #59 | #63 | +7 | @Tulane | L 19–26 135 | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| 8 | Oct 16 | #59 | #138 | -16.5 | Tulsa | W 41–27 174 | 4-3 | 2-1 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #60 | #84 | -5 | @Temple | W 45–14 130 | 5-3 | 3-1 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #44 | #240 | -28 | Charlotte | W 48–22 88 | 6-3 | 4-1 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #41 | #46 | -2.5 | Memphis | W 31–27 149 | 7-3 | 5-1 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #39 | #52 | -2.5 | @UTSA | L 24–58 137 | 7-4 | 5-2 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #53 | #113 | -7 | @Florida Atlantic | W 42–3 159 | 8-4 | 6-2 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 18 | Dec 27 | #41 | #36 | +6 | Pittsburgh (N) | W 23–17 | 9-4 | 6-2 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27 | Pittsburgh | W 23–17 | — | — | — | -0.232 | 24.2% | 160.4% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Nov 29 | @Florida Atlantic | W 42–3 | 524 | 1 | 25:21 | +0.341 | 50.6% | 117.7% | Best defensive stand |
| Nov 22 | @UTSA | L 24–58 | 401 | 3 | 22:31 | +0.114 | 36.8% | 132.2% | Blowout loss |
| Nov 15 | Memphis | W 31–27 | 454 | 1 | 24:27 | +0.325 | 53.4% | 110.2% | One-score win |
| Nov 8 | Charlotte | W 48–22 | 407 | 1 | 34:02 | +0.115 | 47.2% | 96.4% | |
| Nov 1 | @Temple | W 45–14 | 614 | 2 | 31:27 | +0.367 | 55.1% | 123.4% | Best success rate |
| Oct 16 | Tulsa | W 41–27 | 568 | 0 | 29:04 | +0.253 | 47.3% | 122.4% | |
| Oct 9 | @Tulane | L 19–26 | 340 | 0 | 30:37 | +0.200 | 47.2% | 90.3% | One-score loss |
| Sep 25 | Army | W 28–6 | 431 | 2 | 25:58 | +0.228 | 49.3% | 111.5% | |
| Sep 20 | BYU | L 13–34 | 404 | 2 | 28:21 | -0.077 | 39.7% | 105.1% | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 13 | @Coastal Carolina | W 38–0 | 497 | 1 | 33:55 | +0.182 | 48.8% | 109.1% | Blowout win |
| Sep 6 | Campbell | W 56–3 | 535 | 0 | 27:44 | +0.418 | 55.0% | 116.1% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Aug 28 | @NC State | L 17–24 | 413 | 0 | 27:53 | +0.163 | 33.8% | 157.0% | One-score loss |
| Season average (13 games) | 466 | 1.1 | +0.184 | 45.3% | 119.4% | ||||
How They Play · 2025
How They Play · 2025East Carolina fields a capable methodical, ball-control offense behind an elite defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How East Carolina actually scores
63rd percentile quality, 36th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
East Carolina's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 43rd percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 60th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does East Carolina hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
63rd percentile success on standard downs, 91st on passing downs — a 28-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
East Carolina by half
1st-half offense ranks 62nd percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 80th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
How much of East Carolina's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.18; 63rd percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.04. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.29 raw vs. 0.05 adjusted.
East Carolina reads strongest in rushing epa allowed (top 8%) and epa allowed (top 12%); the crux lives in explosive plays, where East Carolina sits at the 21st percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
ELITE · 90+STRONG · 70+AVERAGE · 40-70CONCERN · 10-40BOTTOM · <10
Most Similar Programs · East Carolina
Most Similar Programs · East CarolinaReads Like
CharlotteTier 3 · Prestige T2 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontColorado StateTier 3 · Prestige T2 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontFlorida InternationalTier 3 · Prestige T2 · Similarly-sized rosters up front
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · East Carolina · 2018-present
Strong
50% home win rate vs 36% on the road. margin runs +11.7 better at home. Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium seats 50,000, averaging 76% full (38,080 attendance, 25 games reported).
Home24-24Away16-28
Positional competition · RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
London Montgomery and Marlon Gunn split the carries (156/268 vs 112/268) -- but Marlon Gunn leads on every measured axis. This isn't a split role, it's a hierarchy with a change-of-pace back behind it.
London MontgomeryMarlon Gunn
Carries
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
Inside the 5
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Q4, leading (competitive)
p = 0.000 -- real, not noise
Targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-carry share
concentration and EPA/carry agree -- a real boom/bust split
Screened 4 claims, 2 survived, 2 falsified
Positional competition · WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Anthony Smith (WR) and Desirrio Riles (TE) split the targets (89/127 vs 38/127) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Anthony SmithDesirrio Riles
Targets
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
3rd-down targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Garbage-time share
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-catch share
concentration alone -- EPA/target doesn't corroborate, read with caution
Screened 3 claims, 0 survived, 3 falsified
What changed
East Carolina’s play-calling, before and after the change
Offense: Donnie Kirkpatrick (2019–2023) → John David Baker (2024–2025)
The biggest shift: 4th-down go rate moved up 8 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
4th-down go rate
Defense: Blake Harrell (2020–2024) → Josh Aldridge (2025)
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved down 6 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
Season by season
How East Carolina’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Offense: John David Baker (2024–2025)
1st-down pass rate
2024: 45% → 2025: 45% · 0-pt range · #171 of 171 · less than most
Red-zone pass rate
2024: 35% → 2025: 34% · 1-pt range · #171 of 171 · less than most
4th-down go rate
2024: 28% → 2025: 55% · 27-pt range · #30 of 171 · more than most
Defensive identity · pass zones
What this defense gives up, by zone.
On short passes, East Carolina’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (67.5% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 194-play sample) — mid-pack, 98 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
Screened 133 claims, 133 survived · 2025 only, in the 399 games with the detailed play-text feed; n=194 short-zone plays faced, raw rate 68.6%
Venue texture
70°F average kickoff temp; 6% of games had measurable precipitation; 6 mph average wind.
Based on 72 home games with weather data.
The CFP Era
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
TRAJECTORY · quality-score line · AP rank dotted · CFP bids marked · coach regimes ribboned
Program Quality
AP Rank (inverted)
CFP Appearance
East Carolina's 2014–2025 record is 63-82. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
367-348-3
since 1951 · 69 seasons · .511 win rate
HOME
205-124-2
AWAY
149-214-1
NEUTRAL
13-10
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
The program, in full — read the essay
Blake Harrell took a program buried below .500 and walked out of 2025 with nine wins and a Military Bowl trophy. Pirate Nation has been shoving the receipt across the table ever since.
East Carolina is the program whose fanbase has always outrun its address. Dowdy-Ficklen turns purple and deafening for a school in Greenville — a tobacco-country town the national media files under 'mid-pack' before the game even kicks off. The Pirate Cannon fires, the purple sea fills the lower bowl, and the noise says something the American Athletic standings never quite do: this place has always had a bigger operation than its conference letter suggests.
After the flat stretch of the late 2010s and early 2020s, Blake Harrell's first full season as head coach answered the latest round of doubt cleanly. ECU went 9-4 in 2025, held opponents to the fewest points per game at the school since 1999, and beat Pittsburgh 23-17 in the Military Bowl — the kind of season that forces even skeptics to revisit the file. Harrell enters 2026 in year two with Pirate Nation pushing for an outright American title and the kind of national attention that the 1991 top-ten finish and the 2008 conference championship briefly unlocked.
The 2026 season will answer whether this rebuild has a ceiling or a roof. The question isn't whether ECU can win nine games — Harrell proved that. It's whether the Pirates can win the American outright, the thing that hasn't happened since Skip Holtz in 2008, and whether a nine-win floor under a second-year head coach means the program has finally locked in stability instead of cycles.
How they play
Chip-fueled, defense-anchored football — a program that has historically played like it has something to prove because, in its own telling, it always has. Harrell's 2025 ECU leaned on a defense that carried the identity: low points allowed, high aggression, the kind of physical football that travels. Offensively, the Pirates run a modern spread framework without heavy stylistic signatures — the identity is the result, not the scheme.
Rising
East Carolina 2016–2025. Climbing +1.6 rungs across the last 10 seasons. Slope +0.24 rungs / year — moving up the prestige scale.
CFP Era · East Carolina
12 seasons on file
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 9-4
Season Standing · 2025 · 9-4Bowl eligible
East Carolina: 6+ wins, bowl access secured. The baseline of a successful FBS year.
R0R1R2R3R4R5R6R7R8R9
Sub-FBSBuildingBowlRankedContenderPlayoff
American Athletic Standing · 2025
4th in the American Athletic
East Carolina sits 4th of 14 in the American Athletic at 6-2. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navy | 8-1 |
| 2 | Tulane | 8-1 |
| 3 | North Texas | 7-2 |
| 4 | East Carolina | 6-2 |
| 5 | South Florida | 6-2 |
| 6 | Memphis | 4-4 |
| 7 | UTSA | 4-4 |
| 8 | Army | 4-5 |
| 9 | Florida Atlantic | 3-5 |
| 10 | Temple | 3-5 |
| 11 | Rice | 2-6 |
| 12 | UAB | 2-6 |
| 13 | Tulsa | 1-7 |
| 14 | Charlotte | 0-8 |
Coaching Era · East Carolina
Coaching Era · East CarolinaBlake Harrell
Blake Harrell in year 2 of the rebuild. The methodology is taking shape.
Era Blake Harrell · 2025–presentPrev: Mike Houston (2020–2024)OC: Jordan DavisPrev OC: John David Baker (2024–2025)DC: Jordon Hankins / co-Roy TeshPrev DC: Josh Aldridge (2025)
2
years · era
Rituals
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
Dowdy-Ficklen Purple Haze
since 1963
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium's 'Purple Haze' — fans in purple, lights bathing the field in purple, stadium audio rolled to Jimi Hendrix's 'Purple Haze' — is the program's defining visual identity. The night-game aesthetic + the eastern North Carolina geography + the visiting-team disorientation factor make ECU's home environment unique among AAC programs.
Skip Holtz Conference USA Era (2008-2009)
since 2008
Skip Holtz's 2008-2009 tenure — particularly the 2008 8-5 + Conference USA championship + Liberty Bowl championship — defined the program's modern peak. The 2008 Holtz era's recruiting + competitive cycles produced national C-USA contention. Holtz's departure to South Florida (2010) opened the next cycle.
Pirate Cannon
since 1985
The Pirate Cannon — fired after every Pirate touchdown — is the audio signature of every ECU home game. The cannon-fires-with-Jolly-Roger-raised tradition + the pre-game pirate-ship-on-field skit + the Captain Jack Sparrow / generic-pirate mascot iconography combine into a venue identity unique in CFB.
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
The 1991 Peach Bowl season
11-1 and a No. 9 final ranking — proof a small eastern-NC school could finish in the top ten
2008 C-USA title
ECU beats Tulsa 27-24 for its first conference championship in 32 years
The 2025 turnaround
Blake Harrell's first full year ends 9-4 with a Military Bowl win over Pittsburgh
Moment of the Year · East Carolina · 2025
Moment of the Year · East Carolina · 2025Postseason · Won 23-17 vs Pittsburgh
Week 18 of 2025. Postseason win — the season-defining moment.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Bowl / Postseason LedgerRecent postseason (2014-2025): 3-1
Most recent: 2025 — win 23-17 (home). Last 5 postseason: 3-1.
2025202420222014
NFL Draft Pipeline
2025–2026
NFL Draft PipelineThin
2 picks last 5 cycles. Roster development still maturing.
2
picks · 0 R1
#76
Shavon Revel Jr.
Cornerback · 2025 · Dallas
#218
Anthony Smith
Wide Receiver · 2026 · Dallas
#98 all-time · 2 first-round picksthe talent factory →
Unit lineage
East Carolina’s offense and defense, by coordinator
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Offense2014–2025
2014 · Lincoln Riley2015 · Dave Nichol2016–2018 · Tony Petersen2019–2023 · Donnie Kirkpatrick2024–2025 · John David Baker
Hired for 2026: Jordan Davis — not yet reflected in on-field data.
Defense2014–2025
2014–2015 · Rick Smith2016–2017 · Kenwick Thompson2018 · David Blackwell2019 · Bob Trott2020–2024 · Blake Harrell2025 · Josh Aldridge
Hired for 2026: Jordon Hankins / co-Roy Tesh — not yet reflected in on-field data.
Elite (≥70th pct)AveragePoor (≤30th pct)
Chronicle Visuals
Average 2025 continuity (51% back) — qb room anchors it, offense is the stress point.
The portal upgraded the TE room but opened a hole at DL.
1 player drafted in 2026; the reload runs through the portal and recruiting.
East Carolina sits where recruit talent and draft yield largely match.
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