East Carolina

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American Athletic · Blake Harrell, year 3 (14-7) · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium · 50,000 · 40,074 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#82 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #102 (-8.1) · FPI #84
The marketOld Dominion by 3at Old Dominion · our model 34% East Carolina · a number, not a pick

LastL 24–27 vs App State · Sat Sep 12 · Mitch Griffis 230 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

Nextat Old Dominion · Sat Sep 19 · 6 pm ET · S.B. Ballard Stadium · Old Dominion by 3 · series 5-0, won the last 5 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
17.0
Pts allowed/game
37.5
Total yards/gm#125 / 138 · 10th pct
289.5
Rush yards/gmT-#127 / 138 · 8th pct
94.5
Pass yards/gmT-#97 / 138 · 30th pct
195.0
Yards allowed/gm#116 / 138 · 16th pct
441.5
Rush yds allowed/gm#111 / 138 · 20th pct
178.0
SacksT-#80 / 138 · 33rd pct
3
3rd-down conv#138 / 138 · 1st pct
9.1%
All 80 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
579289.5/gm5.12/play#125 / 138 · 10th pct#66 / 70 · 6th pct#13 / 14 · 11th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
883441.5/gm5.77/play#116 / 138 · 16th pct#67 / 70 · 5th pct#11 / 14 · 25th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
18994.5/gm1.67/playT-#127 / 138 · 8th pct#66 / 70 · 6th pct#13 / 14 · 11th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
356178.0/gm2.33/play#111 / 138 · 20th pct#66 / 70 · 6th pct#9 / 14 · 39th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
5728.5/gm#128 / 138 · 8th pct#65 / 70 · 8th pct#13 / 14 · 11th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
9346.5/gm#128 / 138 · 8th pct#69 / 70 · 2nd pct#13 / 14 · 11th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
10.5/gmT-#123 / 138 · 8th pctT-#64 / 70 · 6th pct#14 / 14 · 4th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
84.0/gmT-#136 / 138 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#13 / 14 · 11th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team
390195.0/gm3.45/playT-#97 / 138 · 30th pctT-#58 / 70 · 17th pct#7 / 14 · 54th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
527263.5/gm3.44/play#114 / 138 · 18th pct#65 / 70 · 8th pct#11 / 14 · 25th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
5628.0/gmT-#78 / 138 · 43rd pctT-#45 / 70 · 35th pct#7 / 14 · 54th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
6030.0/gmT-#69 / 138 · 49th pctT-#38 / 70 · 46th pctT-#9 / 14 · 36th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
3216.0/gmT-#98 / 138 · 28th pctT-#57 / 70 · 19th pct#7 / 14 · 54th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
3919.5/gmT-#80 / 138 · 39th pctT-#47 / 70 · 31st pctT-#8 / 14 · 43rd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
31.5/gmT-#72 / 138 · 41st pctT-#44 / 70 · 31st pctT-#4 / 14 · 71st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
00.0/gmT-#1 / 138 · 96th pctT-#1 / 70 · 92nd pct#1 / 14 · 96th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Passer rating allowed#56 / 91 · 39th pct#31 / 42 · 27th pct#6 / 13 · 62nd pct
132.1132.1
Interceptions thrown
Team
21.0/gmT-#23 / 138 · 74th pctT-#8 / 70 · 77th pctT-#3 / 14 · 75th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
00.0/gmT-#1 / 138 · 92nd pctT-#1 / 70 · 92nd pctT-#1 / 14 · 86th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Sacks (def)
Team
31.5/gmT-#80 / 138 · 33rd pctT-#49 / 70 · 22nd pctT-#5 / 14 · 54th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
52.5/gmT-#101 / 138 · 20th pctT-#56 / 70 · 14th pctT-#13 / 14 · 7th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Tackles for loss
Team
157.5/gmT-#22 / 138 · 82nd pctT-#14 / 70 · 78th pct#2 / 14 · 89th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
115.5/gmT-#81 / 138 · 34th pctT-#47 / 70 · 27th pctT-#7 / 14 · 39th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
2713.5/gmT-#131 / 138 · 5th pct#67 / 70 · 5th pct#13 / 14 · 11th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
4924.5/gmT-#125 / 138 · 9th pctT-#68 / 70 · 3rd pctT-#12 / 14 · 14th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
21.0/gmT-#137 / 138 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#14 / 14 · 4th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
136.5/gmT-#103 / 138 · 23rd pctT-#55 / 70 · 19th pct#11 / 14 · 25th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
2211.0/gmT-#105 / 138 · 21st pctT-#50 / 70 · 24th pct#13 / 14 · 11th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2914.5/gmT-#79 / 138 · 40th pctT-#41 / 70 · 39th pctT-#10 / 14 · 29th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
21.0/gmT-#51 / 138 · 51st pctT-#28 / 70 · 49th pctT-#9 / 14 · 36th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#26 / 138 · 66th pctT-#15 / 70 · 61st pctT-#1 / 14 · 75th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
21.0/gmT-#98 / 138 · 22nd pctT-#45 / 70 · 29th pctT-#12 / 14 · 14th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#3 / 138 · 92nd pctT-#2 / 70 · 92nd pctT-#1 / 14 · 93rd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
45:0122:30/gm#137 / 138 · 1st pct#69 / 70 · 2nd pct#14 / 14 · 4th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
74:5937:30/gm#129 / 138 · 7th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#13 / 14 · 11th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
+0.35 EPA/play12231 / 5358.53676.93
#60 FBS		2127.85233.95.47.0
Running Backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
+0.28 EPA/play32221165.3045——
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
+0.28 EPA/play11211154
#62 FBS		14138
+0.10 EPA/play127344.9012

2026 stat leaders · East Carolina

through 2 games

DJ Johnson Jr. leads East Carolina with 13 tackles through 2 games.

1. DJ Johnson Jr. LB 13 tackles
2. Jeremiah Melvin WR 154 receiving yards
3. Crews Law LB 12 tackles
4. Jackson Barker LB 11 tackles
5. Julien Davis LB 11 tackles
How They Play · 2025

East Carolina fields a capable methodical, ball-control offense behind an elite defense.

Offense
58th pct EPA/play
Tempo
77th pct success, 22nd explosiveness
Defense
89th pct EPA allowed

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · East Carolina · 2025

East Carolina reads strongest in rushing epa allowed (top 8%) and epa allowed (top 12%); the crux lives in explosive plays, where East Carolina sits at the 21st percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.18
58th
Success Rate +0.45
77th
Explosive Plays +1.19
22nd
Rushing EPA +0.09
44th

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.05
89th
Success Rate Allowed +0.37
81st
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.26
48th
Passing EPA Allowed +0.15
79th

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.36
72nd
Rushing EPA Allowed -0.06
92nd
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 13 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 136 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · East Carolina · 2018–present · FBS opponents

East Carolina is worth +3.8 points more at home than on the road.

Middle of FBS, 43rd percentile of 133 programs

41% at home, 36% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (17–24 home, 16–29 away). Interval ±4.3.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, East Carolina has beaten the number by +3.1 more at home than away over 72 games — inside the ±8.2 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium seats 50,000 and has averaged 76% full (38,157, 26 games reported). Visitors cover a median 440 miles to get here since 2018 — 66th-longest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 17% of the 2026 roster (19 of 114 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 49 home games since 2018.

Home17–24Away16–29Edge+3.8 ±4.3Visitor trip440 mi

More in this tab

Scheme claimsFive specific, testable claims about how this team plays.

Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected

East Carolina's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time

Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 44th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 65th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.

league medianRaw 4th quarter · 44th pctileCompetitive snaps only · 65th pctileWorst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · CFBD play-by-play, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin
RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank East Carolina

CFB Zeitgeist

#82

-1.0

SP+

#102

-8.1

FPI

#84

-4.2

Elo

#74

1462

The national models put East Carolina between 74th and 102nd nationally — CFB Zeitgeist agrees, slotting them 82nd.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · East Carolina

Reads like

CharlotteAmerican AthleticSame tier of program · Same prestige band · Similarly-sized rosters up frontColorado StatePac-12Same tier of program · Same prestige band · Similarly-sized rosters up frontFlorida InternationalConference USASame tier of program · Same prestige band · Similarly-sized rosters up front

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

70°F average kickoff temp; 5% of games had measurable precipitation; 6 mph average wind.

Based on 73 home games with weather data.

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. AI-generated content is labeled and may contain factual errors. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site