Next game: vs South Florida
South Florida’s best edge on East Carolina is running
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
East Carolina offense against South Florida defense
South Florida offense against East Carolina defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.14 EPA/play | 12 | 8 | 69 / 126 | 54.8 | 753 | 6.0 | 4 | 5 | 107.5 | 30 | 34.2 | 4.2 | 5.3 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Starter — 126 pass attempts and 39 carries in 8 games, fewer passes and runs a game than most FBS quarterbacks who play every week. This week's matchup — QB Griffis operates within the system without forcing anything. Harrell is the one who keeps the offense on schedule and doesn't lose the game. Season receipt Yards / attempt6.4 bottom 11th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Completion %54.9% bottom 6th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Mitch Griffis's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Pocket Passer · +0.09 EPA/play | 9 | 6 | 73 / 117 | 62.4 | 716 | 6.1 | 7 | 2 | 130.1 | 40 | 29.7 | 5.8 | 6.4 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. 117 pass attempts and 32 carries in 6 games. Fewer passes and runs a game than most FBS quarterbacks who play every week. This week's matchup — QB Williams operates within the system without forcing anything. Harrell is the one who keeps the offense on schedule and doesn't lose the game. Season receipt Yards / attempt6.3 bottom 11th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts INT rate1.7% 69th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Emory Williams's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed Merchant · +0.32 EPA/play | 4 | 8 | 105 | 689 #31 FBS | 6.6 | 5 | 88 | 10.4 | 16.0 | |
Yards by week → Speed merchant· Boom-or-bustCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Starter — 105 carries and 9 catches in 8 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Jr. hits the crease and outruns the angle. Rutledge is the one who hits the crease and outruns the angle. Season receipt Yards / carry6.9 92th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share7.9% bottom 31th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View TJ Engleman Jr.'s full player page | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.01 EPA/play | 3 | 7 | 70 | 279 | 4.0 | 2 | 45 | 22.1 | 5.9 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. 70 carries and 7 catches in 7 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 134 of 278 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Ashton Gray's full player page | ||||||||||
| -0.39 EPA/play | 21 | 7 | 37 | 117 | 3.2 | 1 | 13 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.25 EPA/play | 1 | 8 | 33 | 303 | 9.2 | 3 | 41 | |
Yards by week → Slot technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 33 catches and 4 carries in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Joseph wins underneath on volume and route precision. Eley is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Reception volume33 74th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Yards / reception9.2 bottom 11th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Nathaniel Joseph's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.64 EPA/play | 7 | 5 | 19 | 232 | 12.2 | 1 | 27 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman View Landon Sides's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.10 EPA/play | 11 | 4 | 13 | 188 | 14.5 | 1 | 38 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Melvin moves the chains on third down. Eley is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception14.2 57th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.1 bottom 11th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jeremiah Melvin's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.64 EPA/play | 24 | 8 | 14 | 166 | 11.9 | 1 | 61 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine This week's matchup — WR Dickerson moves the chains on third down. Eley is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception7.5 bottom 5th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume14 bottom 17th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jason Dickerson's full player page | ||||||||
| -0.18 EPA/play | 2 | 5 | 8 | 144 | 18 | 0 | 68 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Complete TE | 8 | 6 | 12 | 86 | 7.2 | 0 | 16 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 126 of 166 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Ismael Smith Flores's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.40 EPA/play | 15 | 3 | 5 | 56 | 11.2 | 2 | 25 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 5 | 8 | 23 | 8 | 8 #50 FBS | 2 | 1 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 23 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate34.8% 96th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Kieran Davis's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 9 | 7 | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate29.4% 90th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Kendrick DuJour's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 98 | 6 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate20.0% 67th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Torin Brazell's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | — | 6 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 2.5 | 4 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate28.6% 89th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jasiyah Robinson's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 44 | 7 | 13 | 4 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate34.6% 96th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Preston Carr's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 9 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate27.3% 86th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View J.D. Lampley's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 88 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Rion Roseborough's full player page | |||||||
| 50 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 11 | 8 | 56 | 24 | 32 | 5.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — 56 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2023 class View DJ Johnson Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 10 | 8 | 48 | 17 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 48 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Crews Law's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 42 | 8 | 32 | 13 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate9.4% 53th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume32 bottom 37th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Julien Davis's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 1 | 5 | 24 | 6 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume24 bottom 22th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 21th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jackson Barker's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 20 | 6 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Cade Law's full player page | |||||||||
| 43 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 32 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 4 | 8 | 43 | 2 | 0 | 3.5 | 1 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — 43 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume43 83th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Kevon Merrell's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 3 | 8 | 38 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — 38 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume38 71th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Zyeir Gamble's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 8 | 8 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 4.5 | 1 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — 38 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume38 71th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Kamaurri McKinley's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 7 | 8 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 2.5 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume24 bottom 28th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Ashton Levells-Mitchell's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 6 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View DeMarius Hines's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 12 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Myles Pollard's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 22 | 8 | 16 | 3 | 2 #51 FBS | 1 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate18.8% 93th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Angelo Ross's full player page | |||||||
| 15 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 26 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 13 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 2 #51 FBS | 0 | 0 | |
| 17 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 28 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 21 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 24 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 43 | 8 | 10/12 | 83.3 | 22/22 | 52 | 49 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83 | 2 | 10 | 482 | 48.2 | 64 | 3 | 1 | |
| Cannon | 48 | 6 | 32 | 1492 | 46.6 | 60 | 10 | 1 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.57 EPA/play | — | 7 | 16 | 36 | 2.3 | 0 | 9 |
Biggest plays from East Carolina’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in East Carolina’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 0:35 · UAB down 8Ryder Burton finds Braylon McReynolds for a 17-yard touchdownEast Carolina at UAB, week 7Q4, 0:35 · UAB 15, East Carolina 17▲35%UAB’s chance to win, 7% to 42%▲35%UAB’s chance to win, 7% to 42%Bam McReynolds 17 yd pass from Bam McReynolds (Ryder Burton Run for Two-Point Conversion)▶Watch from this play
Overtime, 0:00 · East Carolina down 7Ellis Ellis Jr. intercepts Mitch GriffisEast Carolina at Memphis, week 8Overtime, 0:00 · East Carolina 34, Memphis 41▼34%East Carolina’s chance to win, 34% to 0%▼34%East Carolina’s chance to win, 34% to 0%M.Griffis pass intercepted by E.Ellis Jr. at MEM00, Touchback▶Watch from this play
Q1, 2:55 · East Carolina up 3Ashton Gray runs 1 yard for a touchdownEast Carolina at Memphis, week 8Q1, 2:55 · East Carolina 10, Memphis 0▲30%East Carolina’s chance to win, 25% to 55%▲30%East Carolina’s chance to win, 25% to 55%Ashton Gray 1 yd Run (Noah Perez Kick)▶Watch from this play
Q2, 14:17 · App State down 4, takes the leadMalachi Singleton runs 4 yards for a touchdownApp State at East Carolina, week 2Q2, 14:17 · App State 10, East Carolina 7App State took the lead in the second quarterApp State took the lead in the second quarterM.Singleton rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ECU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
Sun Belt Conference- Overtime, 0:00 · UAB up 7Delvon Gulley takes an interception 80 yards for a pick-sixEast Carolina at UAB, week 7Overtime, 0:00 · UAB 30, East Carolina 17Overtime touchdown for UABOvertime touchdown for UABE.Williams pass intercepted by D.Gulley at UAB20 D.Gulley return 80 yards to the ECU00 touchdown▶Watch from this play
- Q4, 1:30 · East Carolina down 7, ties itMitch Griffis finds Landon Sides for a 20-yard touchdownEast Carolina at Memphis, week 8Q4, 1:30 · East Carolina 34, Memphis 341:30Game-tying touchdown for East Carolina with 1:30 left1:30Game-tying touchdown for East Carolina with 1:30 leftGame-tying touchdown for East Carolina with 1:30 leftM.Griffis pass complete deep middle to L.Sides caught at MEM00, for 20 yards to the MEM00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
East Carolina lost at UAB after being 97% to win; the closest win was at Old Dominion, down to 14%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave East Carolina during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · East Carolina
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · East CarolinaDJ Johnson Jr. leads East Carolina with 56 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+20 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
East Carolina fields a struggling offense behind a strong defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
East Carolina reads strongest in passing EPA allowed (top 4%) and success rate allowed (top 19%); the crux lives in success rate, where East Carolina sits at the 13th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
East Carolina is worth +4.0 points more at home than on the road.
Middle of FBS, 48th percentile of 133 programs
44% at home, 35% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (19-24 home, 17-31 away). Interval ±4.1.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, East Carolina has beaten the number by +2.0 more at home than away over 100 games. That is inside the ±6.6 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium seats 50,000 and has averaged 76% full (37,932, 29 games reported). Visitors cover a median 440 miles to get here since 2018 — 66th-longest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 16% of the 2026 roster (19 of 116 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 52 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- UnderdogAnthony Smith produces at a notably lower rate when his team is an underdog than when favored: he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
- Garbage timeParker Jenkins sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach, and his efficiency in competitive snaps sits below the position baseline: the numbers lean on the opponent giving up.
- Garbage timeTJ Engleman Jr. sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach, and his efficiency in competitive snaps sits below the position baseline: the numbers lean on the opponent giving up.
- Money downYannick Smith is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
- Deep threatAnthony Smith is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
- Deep threatBrock Spalding is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
- Deep threatYannick Smith is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
TJ Engleman Jr. and Ashton Gray split the carries (104/171 vs 67/171) -- but the job isn't split the same way. TJ Engleman Jr. produces in bigger chunks.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Nathaniel Joseph (WR) and Kanen Hamlett (TE) split the targets (45/50 vs 5/50) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Kanen Hamlett produces in bigger chunks.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How East Carolina actually scores
24th percentile quality, 77th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
East Carolina’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 29th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 68th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does East Carolina hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
37th percentile success on standard downs, 19th on passing downs — a 18-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
East Carolina by half
1st-half offense ranks 41st percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 54th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of East Carolina’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.02; 18th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.00. The widest gap came in week 2: -0.20 raw vs. -0.01 adjusted.
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), East Carolina’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (66.7% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 182-play sample) — mid-pack, 56 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), East Carolina’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (63.5% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 141-play sample) — mid-pack, 14 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
Recovering 36% of the fumbles they've forced — running cold vs. the ~48% league rate.
4 of 11 forced fumbles recovered; 8 of 15 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Converting 31% of pass disruptions into takeaways — well above the ~18% league rate.
8 interceptions of 26 disrupted passes (18 deflected, 8 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
Winning the penalty battle: 49 penalties committed vs. 63 drawn on opponents, a 36-yard edge.
452 penalty yards committed vs. 488 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · East Carolina
Most similar programs · East CarolinaReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, NC
Usual during the game around Nov 6: 58°, between 47° and 69° in about 7 in 10 games (32 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 67°, and 8 in 10 ran between 46° and 82° (50 of 55 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.