Florida International7-62Willie Simmons begins his tenure at Florida International with a 7-6 record, signaling a shift in identity for a program defined by its 2002 founding and Riccardo Silva Stadium legacy.
Florida International is the Miami commuter school that sold its stadium's name to Pitbull and just had its best season in years — a program that wins by surprising even itself.
Panther fans live in the shadow of Miami and share a city that barely knows they exist; they say the only way FIU gets noticed is by winning, so they treat every bowl bid and every Shula Bowl scalp as…
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · at South Florida · Sat Sep 5 · 23:00 UTC
Florida International is the Conference USA program whose 2002 program founding + Mario Cristobal era + Riccardo Silva Stadium identity define what Miami-G5-football looks like.
The team returns only 42% of its roster, with 21 transfers leaving and 16 arriving, creating uncertainty in key positions like OT and DL. Recruiting ranked #102 nationally, reflecting challenges in attracting top talent.
Roary the Panther is patient.
the open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?
Willie Simmons begins his first season at Florida International with 42% production returning and a 7-6 record to build on in a program that defines Miami-G5-football.
Florida International enters 2026 — the 7-6 record and No. 107 SP+ mark contrast with the program’s 2002 founding and Riccardo Silva Stadium legacy, raising questions about sustaining its identity in Conference USA.
Alex Perry produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
Willie Simmons begins his tenure at Florida International with a 7-6 record, signaling a shift in identity for a program defined by its 2002 founding and Riccardo Silva Stadium legacy.
Willie Simmons begins his first season at Florida International with a 7-6 record, but the program's weak tier status and coordinator changes raise questions about sustaining momentum in Conference USA.
Alex Perry is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Alex Perry does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score.
Dallas Payne is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Kejon Owens converts 3rd/4th-and-short at a below-average rate.
Maguire Anderson is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
JJ Kohl's arrival as the top QB transfer anchors Florida International's top-20 portal class — Simmons' first move in a 7-6 program with Miami-G5 identity at stake.
Tobias Johnson commits to FIU
OT pressure flagged at #90 nationally, and Simmons goes and lands a D-lineman from Escambia — depth class or not, filling the trenches on both sides of the ball is how you rebuild identity in C-USA.
Top 3 commits
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Florida International · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Willie Simmons took over as Florida International's head coach, replacing Mike MacIntyre. It is the program's third head coach in five seasons. The coverage has largely bought in. The field test is what separates the presser from the program. The coverage has largely bought in, though the field test is still ahead.
The 'this hire changes everything' takes -- new-era believers making the case early.
The 'show me the body of work' counter -- resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.
Florida International enters 2026 rated No. 107 in 2025 SP+ (-10.5). SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. The coverage is thin. Quiet preseasons end two ways.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 70 of 241 board posts (29%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (134 posts): 16% positive · 71% neutral · 13% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Four of five. The board favors this trend.
Opens Sep 5
vs South Florida · away
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
FL leads the 2026 class with 17 commits. National footprint reaching 3 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
84 signees across 11 states, 2023-2026. FL leads the pull.
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
7 games with TV coverage: 2 ESPN, 3 cable, 1 conference network, 1 streaming
Kickoff windows: 1 noon, 2 afternoon, 4 primetime
Recovering 33% of their own fumbles — running cold vs. the ~51% league rate.
4 of 12 own fumbles recovered themselves; 9 of 14 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
Converting 19% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~19% league rate.
12 interceptions of 62 disrupted passes (50 deflected, 12 intercepted), 2025 only.
Winning the penalty battle: 85 penalties committed vs. 81 drawn on opponents, a 40-yard edge.
722 penalty yards committed vs. 762 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
What little we hear
Only 7 cohort(s) cleared the signal floor this week, so we won’t stage a split we can’t back. Here’s the honest read:
~ our readFlorida International fans are split right down the middle, but it's more feel than fact right now.
✓ counted We read 134 posts from Florida International fans this week.
Fanbase divided: 55% believers, 45% skeptics
Fan opinions split nearly 50/50 right now · See all divided fanbases →
Fanbase Health Index · Florida International · high confidence
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.13 EPA/play | 1 | 10 | 164 / 263 | 62.4 | 1742 | 6.6 | 9 | 6 | 124.7 | 37.5 | 5.8 | 4.0 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 97 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt6.7 bottom 26th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush usage16.5% bottom 31th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Keyone Jenkins's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Pocket Passer · +0.00 EPA/play | 16 | 9 | 89 / 159 | 56.0 | 1021 | 6.4 | 11 | 7 | 123.9 | 39.2 | 5.1 | 5.9 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 97 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt6.4 bottom 20th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts INT rate4.4% bottom 7th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Joe Pesansky's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed Merchant · +0.06 EPA/play | 5 | 13 | 213 | 1334 #9 FBS | 6.3 | 11 #38 FBS | 84 | 18.9 | 16.3 | 21.7 | 15.9 | 6.2% (22/354) | |
Yards by week → Speed Merchant· Boom-or-bustCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 48 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry6.3 84th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception3.7 bottom 12th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 91st percentile among FBS RBs, up from the 25th | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.10 EPA/play | 6 | 13 | 103 | 469 | 4.6 | 5 | 53 | 10.3 | 12.7 | 21.4 | 9.2 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 186 of 349 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Anthony Carrie's full player page | |||||||||||||
| -0.08 EPA/play | 34 | 11 | 37 | 142 | 3.8 | 1 | 35 | 6.1 | 7.9 | — | — | 4.5% (16/354) | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jump-Ball Target · +0.40 EPA/play | 4 | 13 | 56 | 840 #54 FBS | 15 | 9 #17 FBS | 64 | 12.6 | 10.9 | 24.0% (85/354) | |
Yards by week → Jump-Ball TargetWins contested catches at the goal line. Size and catch radius are the weapons. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 29 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TD rate16.1% 89th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume56 88th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score moved from the 16th to 89th percentile among FBS WRs | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.13 EPA/play | 7 | 12 | 31 | 310 | 10 | 1 | 30 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 13.8% (49/354) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception8.2 bottom 9th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.1 bottom 8th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kyle McNeal's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.64 EPA/play | — | 11 | 27 | 293 | 10.9 | 4 | 42 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 8.8% (31/354) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 177 of 223 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · senior View Dallas Payne's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.57 EPA/play | 84 | 11 | 25 | 280 | 11.2 | 1 | 46 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 10.5% (37/354) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Maguire Anderson's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.43 EPA/play | 18 | 10 | 23 | 272 | 11.8 | 2 | 49 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 8.8% (31/354) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception8.6 bottom 11th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume23 bottom 26th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View JoJo Stone's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.47 EPA/play | 3 | 10 | 5 | 126 | 25.2 | 0 | 64 | 0 | 6.5 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.24 EPA/play | 11 | 5 | 8 | 125 | 15.6 | 1 | 34 | 1.7 | 1.1 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.25 EPA/play | 88 | 7 | 10 | 101 | 10.1 | 1 | 21 | 1.2 | 1.5 | — | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception4.4 bottom 4th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume10 bottom 16th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jackson Verdugo's full player page | |||||||||||
| -0.30 EPA/play | 19 | 8 | 10 | 86 | 8.6 | 0 | 20 | 4.5 | 4.4 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.49 EPA/play | 86 | 5 | 7 | 61 | 8.7 | 0 | 15 | 2.8 | 1.8 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.12 EPA/play | 21 | 5 | 6 | 53 | 8.8 | 0 | 26 | 4.7 | 4.8 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 44 | 12 | 29 | 17 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate19.0% 67th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Keegan Davis's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 25 | 12 | 25 | 17 | 9 | 7 #39 FBS | 8 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate36.0% 99th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Kenton Simmons's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 19 | 10 | 22 | 7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight315 lb 87th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Su Agunloye's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 95 | 10 | 21 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate19.0% 68th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Quaylen Hill's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 99 | 8 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 1.5 | 2 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate16.7% 58th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Germaine Carter's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 13 | 6 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate35.7% 99th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Dante Anderson's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 90 | 9 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate21.4% 76th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Xion Chapman's full player page | |||||||
| 5 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 43 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sideline-to-Sideline | — | 13 | 107 | 68 | 39 | 7.5 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 89th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume107 98th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Johnny Chaney Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 35 | 12 | 71 | 30 | 41 | 6.5 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2024 class View Josiah Taylor's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 11 | 9 | 38 | 25 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.7 93th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate18.4% 90th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Percy Courtney Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||
| 18 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rover | 23 | 12 | 67 | 4 | 4 #23 FBS | 0 | 0 |
Rover· Takeaway threatHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.0% bottom 39th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jessiah Mcgrew's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 22 | 12 | 62 | 4 | 2 | 2.5 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt View Shamir Sterlin's full player pageTackle volume62 83th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles | |||||||
| Rover | 27 | 12 | 57 | 13 #2 FBS | 3 #56 FBS | 6.5 | 0 |
RoverHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate22.8% 98th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Mister Clark's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 26 | 11 | 41 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2023 class our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 49th percentile among FBS Ss, up from the 2nd | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 2 | 9 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate19.2% 93th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Brian Blades's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 1 | 7 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate19.0% 93th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Ashton Levells's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 3 | 7 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.3% bottom 36th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Demetrius Hill's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 7 | 11 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate17.6% 90th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jai-Ayviauynn Celestine's full player page | |||||||
| 9 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 10 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 32 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 12 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 29 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 16 | 11 | 14/18 | 77.8 | 27/27 | 69 | 51 |
| 48 | 3 | 2/3 | 66.7 | 12/12 | 18 | 39 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 6 | 13 | 52 | 2259 | 43.4 | 58 | 13 | 2 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.47 EPA/play | 3 | 10 | 16 | 384 | 24 | 0 | 35 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.57 EPA/play | 84 | 11 | 9 | 149 | 16.6 | 1 | 97 |
| +0.47 EPA/play | 3 | 10 | 7 | 49 | 7 | 0 | 33 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+17 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #125 | #213 | -26.5 | Bethune-Cookman | W 42–9 142 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #138 | #9 | +41.5 | @Penn State | L 0–34 136 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #100 | #143 | -1.5 | Florida Atlantic | W 38–28 146 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #110 | #117 | -5.5 | Delaware | L 16–38 135 | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #127 | #70 | +6.5 | @UConn | L 10–51 139 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| 8 | Oct 15 | #147 | #99 | +10 | @Western Kentucky | W 25–6 134 | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| 9 | Oct 21 | #122 | #130 | +2.5 | Kennesaw State | L 26–45 131 | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| 10 | Oct 30 | #148 | #138 | +3.5 | @Missouri State | L 21–28 135 | 3-5 | 1-3 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #144 | #168 | +1.5 | @Middle Tennessee | W 56–30 144 | 4-5 | 2-3 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #124 | #79 | +4.5 | Liberty | W 34–27 146 | 5-5 | 3-3 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #106 | #94 | -2.5 | Jacksonville State | W 27–21 146 | 6-5 | 4-3 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #102 | #225 | -10.5 | Sam Houston (N) | W 56–16 135 | 7-5 | 5-3 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 18 | Dec 27 | #98 | #48 | +7 | UTSA (N) | L 20–57 | 7-6 | 5-3 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27 | UTSA | L 20–57 | — | — | — | -0.154 | 29.5% | 118.6% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Nov 29 | Sam Houston | W 56–16 | 594 | 1 | 30:47 | +0.429 | 50.0% | 144.6% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Nov 22 | Jacksonville State | W 27–21 | 398 | 3 | 31:38 | +0.141 | 34.3% | 151.4% | One-score win |
| Nov 15 | Liberty | W 34–27 | 375 | 0 | 30:11 | +0.235 | 45.9% | 110.0% | One-score win |
| Nov 8 | @Middle Tennessee | W 56–30 | 401 | 2 | 28:27 | +0.340 | 42.0% | 174.6% | Most explosive |
| Oct 30 | @Missouri State | L 21–28 | 346 | 2 | 32:01 | +0.191 | 36.6% | 141.7% | One-score loss |
| Oct 21 | Kennesaw State | L 26–45 | 518 | 0 | 34:21 | +0.168 | 41.3% | 142.3% | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 15 | @Western Kentucky | W 25–6 | 453 | 0 | 34:38 | +0.219 | 32.9% | 168.1% | |
| Oct 4 | @UConn | L 10–51 | 304 | 5 | 30:27 | -0.027 | 43.1% | 79.9% | Blowout loss |
| Sep 20 | Delaware | L 16–38 | 363 | 2 | 29:29 | +0.101 | 35.8% | 140.7% | |
| Sep 13 | Florida Atlantic | W 38–28 | 408 | 1 | 33:55 | +0.060 | 46.9% | 110.6% | |
| Sep 6 | @Penn State | L 0–34 | 290 | 2 | 34:17 | -0.010 | 34.7% | 133.1% | Blowout loss |
| Aug 29 | Bethune-Cookman | W 42–9 | 456 | 1 | 32:01 | +0.409 | 57.7% | 109.5% | Best success rate |
| Season average (13 games) | 409 | 1.6 | +0.162 | 40.8% | 132.7% | ||||
Florida International fields a limited explosive, big-play offense behind a solid defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
42nd percentile quality, 50th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 38th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 16th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
50th percentile success on standard downs, 26th on passing downs — a 24-point gap between the two.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 33rd percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 68th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.16; 57th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.04. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.41 raw vs. 0.03 adjusted.
Florida International reads strongest in explosive plays (top 24%) and rushing epa (top 32%); the crux lives in rushing epa allowed, where Florida International sits at the 32nd percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · Florida International
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Florida International · 2018-present
46% home win rate vs 24% on the road. margin runs +11.6 better at home. Pitbull Stadium seats 20,000, averaging 72% full (14,419 attendance, 15 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Kejon Owens and Anthony Carrie split the carries (210/310 vs 100/310) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Alex Perry (WR) and Dallas Payne (TE) split the targets (76/107 vs 31/107) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
What changed
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved down 6 points. The rest held closer to steady.
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved up 8 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Season by season
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, Florida International’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (64.8% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 175-play sample) — mid-pack, 44 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
81°F average kickoff temp; 16% of games had measurable precipitation; 8 mph average wind.
Based on 62 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
Florida International's 2014–2025 record is 56-85. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 2003 · 23 seasons · .348 win rate
FIU's stadium is named after Pitbull. The Panthers hadn't been to a bowl since 2019 — until Willie Simmons showed up and immediately changed both the record and the story.
Florida International is the program that wins by surprising everyone, including itself. Founded in 2002 in a city already owned by the Hurricanes, FIU spent its early years building from nothing in America's deepest high school talent pool without any of the oxygen. Mario Cristobal gave it its first real foundation, T.Y. Hilton gave it its first real star, and Butch Davis gave it its best season ever in 2018 — nine wins and a Bahamas Bowl title that proved the Panthers could put a real product on the field. Then came six years of drift.
Willie Simmons' first season in 2025 went 7-6 — the first winning year since 2018, the first bowl since 2019 — and included a 38-28 Shula Bowl win over FAU, the cross-town rival the Panthers need to beat to establish any claim on South Florida's attention. The breakthrough earned the Panthers their first real moment of belief since the Davis era, and Simmons enters year two with FIU trying to prove the 2025 season was a beginning, not a one-off.
The 2026 question is the one every young program faces after its first good year: can Simmons stack it? FIU has the talent pool at its doorstep — Miami produces more blue-chip prospects per square mile than almost anywhere in the country — and now it has a coach who's delivered. Whether the Panthers can build a run of relevance in a city that has barely noticed them is the arc the next two seasons will write.
South Florida speed applied to a modern spread framework — FIU's identity has always been about exploiting the recruiting pool in its backyard faster than the bigger programs deploy it. Simmons runs a pro-style spread with space-creation at its core: outside zone running, play-action off of it, and skill players sourced from the Miami metro. The brand is local toughness and a chip that comes from playing in your own city's shadow.
Florida International 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (-0.07 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 2.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 7-6
Florida International: 6+ wins, bowl access secured. The baseline of a successful FBS year.
Conference USA Standing · 2025
Florida International sits 4th of 10 in the Conference USA at 5-3. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kennesaw State | 6-1 |
| 2 | Jacksonville State | 6-2 |
| 3 | Western Kentucky | 5-2 |
| 4 | Florida International | 5-3 |
| 5 | Missouri State | 4-2 |
| 6 | Delaware | 2-4 |
| 7 | Liberty | 2-4 |
| 8 | Middle Tennessee | 2-6 |
| 9 | New Mexico State | 1-5 |
| 10 | Sam Houston | 1-5 |
Coaching Era · Florida International
Willie Simmons in year 2 of the rebuild. The methodology is taking shape.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 2002
FIU football began in 2002 — one of the recent FBS-level program creations. The program went FCS 2002-2004, FBS 2005, then Sun Belt 2007, then C-USA 2013. Don Strock (founding head coach) + Mario Cristobal (2007-2012) + Butch Davis (2017-2021) era builds + 2018 Bahamas Bowl championship complete the modern arc.
since 2007
Mario Cristobal — FIU graduate, former Miami Hurricane player — coached FIU 2007-2012, producing multiple bowl appearances + the program's early ascent. Cristobal's subsequent Oregon (2017-2021) + Miami (2022-present) head coach career retroactively elevates FIU football. The coaching tree heritage gives the program permanent narrative.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
Cristobal's Panthers win a share of the Sun Belt and reach the program's first bowl
Butch Davis leads FIU to nine wins and a bowl title — the program's high-water mark
Willie Simmons' first year goes 7-6, the first winning season since 2018 and first bowl since 2019
Moment of the Year · Florida International · 2025
Week 2 of 2025. A reckoning loss — the data point the next season must answer.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2025 — loss 57-20 (away). Last 5 postseason: 1-3.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Florida International · Next-Season Outcome Band
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Fanbase Health Index · Florida International · high confidence
2025 stat leaders
How They Play · 2025
Most Similar Programs · Florida International
Season Standing · 2025 · 7-6
Coaching Era · Florida International
Moment of the Year · Florida International · 2025
Bowl / Postseason Ledger