Florida International beats New Mexico State 22-3
Team pages: New Mexico State · Florida International
Florida International beat New Mexico State 22-3. Share this game
We had Florida International favored. It won.
Next: New Mexico State at Sam Houston, Wed Oct 21 · 8:00 PM ET · New Mexico State favored by 2.5
Next: Florida International lost to Jacksonville State 27-24, Tue Oct 13
Top comment in the game thread
How many picks in this game? LMAOOOO
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Florida International a 57% chance, and the closing betting line (Florida International was a 7-point favorite) put it at 71%.
Favored the whole way: Florida International never fell below 65%.
New Mexico State never had better than a 34% chance.
Florida International 22-3 New Mexico State
Florida International wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.New Mexico State 3-22 Florida InternationalNew Mexico State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The play that swung it
- 1Q1 7:02InterceptionDamante intercepted by Miller at the FIU27, returned 20 yardsFlorida International 66% → 78% (+12)
The play that swung it
- 1Q1 7:02InterceptionDamante intercepted by Miller at the FIU27, returned 20 yardsNew Mexico State 34% → 22% (−12)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q4 10:15Fans criticize FIU for kicking a field goal instead of going for it
You know FIU is celebrating Miami Vice when the kicker is dripped out with three separate chains.
r/CFB game threadwtf was that? The fg kicker got the wrong play call?
r/CFB game thread - Q4 7:33A quarterback threw a pass straight into the dirt.
Absolutely incredible throw. Straight to the dirt
r/CFB game thread - Q4 4:33Hedden throws an interception to Hill as FIU leads 19-3Quoted at the top of the page.
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Florida International -7), at 68% for Florida International (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Florida International’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 12:03Kohl sacked for a 6-yd lossQ1, 12:03 · Florida International 0, New Mexico State 0▼7%Florida International’s chance to win, 73% to 66%▼7%Florida International’s chance to win, 73% to 66%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q1, 7:02Damante intercepted by Miller at the FIU27returned 20 yardsQ1, 7:02 · Florida International 0, New Mexico State 0▲12%Florida International’s chance to win, 66% to 78%▲12%Florida International’s chance to win, 66% to 78%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q1, 1:31Carrie 1-yd TD runQ1, 1:31 · Florida International 7, New Mexico State 07-0score after the play7-0score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 7:33Kohl intercepted by Gillespie at the NMSU08Q4, 7:33 · Florida International 19, New Mexico State 319-3score after the play19-3score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 4:26Hedden intercepted by Hill at the NMSU45Q4, 4:26 · Florida International 19, New Mexico State 319-3score after the play19-3score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
Every drive
Florida International scored on 6 of its 12 drives; New Mexico State on 1 of its 12.
Florida International’s drives are teal, New Mexico State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
What it cost
New Mexico State’s chance to win the conference fell from 2% to 1%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 6, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
New Mexico State plays at Sam Houston on Wed Oct 21 with a 1% chance to win the conference.
Box score
Florida International 22, New Mexico State 3
Florida International covered −7 by 12. The total, 25, stayed under 46.5.
| Team totals | New Mexico State | Florida International |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 230 | 220 |
| Passing | 11 of 30, 123 yds | 13 of 22, 120 yds |
| Rushing | 28 for 107 yds | 44 for 100 yds |
| First downs | 12 | 15 |
| Third down | 3 of 12 | 6 of 15 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 1 |
| Penalties | 8 for 47 yds | 6 for 45 yds |
| Time of possession | 22:06 | 37:54 |
New Mexico State leaders
- Passing Adam Damante 9 of 22, 104 yds, 1 INT
- Rushing James Jones 15 for 89 yds; Terrell Washington Jr. 7 for 24 yds
- Receiving Terrione Graves 2 for 39 yds; AJ Williams III 1 for 32 yds
Florida International leaders
- Passing J.J. Kohl 12 of 21, 115 yds, 1 INT
- Rushing Devonte Lyons 14 for 78 yds; Anthony Carrie 16 for 37 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Greg Gaines III 2 for 30 yds; James Resar 3 for 28 yds
Kickoff came 39 minutes late
79° at kickoff · no rain recorded
Thunder was reported at Miami International Airport (4.5 miles away) from 6:39 p.m. to 7:08 p.m., around the delay.
October game-day temperatures at Pitbull Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Miami International Airport, 4.5 miles away, and Miami/kendall-tamia airport, 8.4 miles away. The paler thunder bar is thunder reported in the vicinity of an airport. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
New Mexico State · 2-3
Rated 150th in our preseason ratings, 137th now, up 13 spots.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 18-42 vs New Mexico #58 of 668
lost by 24 as an 11.5-point underdog
Last 4 games
Florida International · 2-2
Rated 124th in our preseason ratings, 131st now.
2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Florida International
- Wk 1Lat South Florida9-19
- Wk 2Wvs Buffalo33-20
- Wk 3Lat Florida Atlantic10-16
- Wk 4Wvs Long Island University20-3
New Mexico State
- Wk 1Lat Florida State17-34
- Wk 1Wvs Mercyhurst51-14
- Wk 2Lat Hawai'i19-29
- Wk 4Lvs New Mexico18-42
- Wk 5Wvs Western Kentucky34-13
Power rating by week
Florida International is rated 0.5 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: New Mexico State’s passing EPA against Florida International, 60 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
New Mexico State’s EPA/play against Florida International’s defense
New Mexico State offense, 18th percentile · Florida International defense, 73rd
New Mexico State’s passing EPA against Florida International’s defense
New Mexico State offense, 20th percentile · Florida International defense, 80th
Florida International’s explosive plays against New Mexico State’s defense
Florida International offense, 22nd percentile · New Mexico State defense, 74th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
The series is tied 2-2
4 meetings since 2004 · Florida International won the last meeting
- 2024 · neutral siteFlorida International 34-13
- 2023New Mexico State 34-17
- 2022Florida International 21-7
- 2004New Mexico State 56-31
Each line is Florida International’s chance to win through that meeting. Florida International is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Florida International fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (82nd among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 57%
- Line · 71%
- Florida International fans · 82nd
- New Mexico State fans · 86th
Florida International favored by 7 · Total 46.5
How games like this usually go
Florida International by 7, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 3.5 points toward Florida International.
The total fell 1 point.
Spread: −3.5 → −7 · Total: 47.5 → 46.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Florida International is worth +4.1 points (±4.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 51st percentile.
39% at home, 23% on the road against FBS opponents (15-23 home, 10-34 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.4 at home vs. away over 89 games — inside the ±7.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,651 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Florida International 21, New Mexico State 7Oct 1, 2022
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Florida International4th0-0
- New Mexico State3rd1-0