New Mexico State beats Sam Houston 30-24
Team pages: New Mexico State · Sam Houston
New Mexico State beat Sam Houston 30-24. Share this game
We had New Mexico State favored. It won.
Next: New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State, Wed Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET
Next: Sam Houston at Missouri State, Tue Oct 27 · 8:00 PM ET
Top comment in the game thread
That’s the kind of braindead pitch/fumble I’d make when running the triple option playing CFB27 while drunk lol
How it swung
The turning point: Jones 1-yd TD run, ties it 7-7 (Q2, 10:07). New Mexico State went from 26% to 51% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave New Mexico State a 51% chance, and the closing betting line (New Mexico State was a 3-point favorite) put it at 60%.
A tight one: New Mexico State bottomed out at 23% and won.
Up to 77% in the first quarter, then Sam Houston lost it.
Sam Houston · Q1 12:4081-yard TD passSam Houston · Q3 15:00
New Mexico State 30-24 Sam HoustonNew Mexico State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Sam Houston 24-30 New Mexico StateSam Houston lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 10:07Jones 1-yd TD run, ties it 7-7New Mexico State 26% → 51% (+25)
- 2Q2 0:30Damante 27-yd TD pass to Williams, New Mexico State goes ahead 14-10New Mexico State 45% → 59% (+14)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 10:07Jones 1-yd TD run, ties it 7-7Sam Houston 74% → 49% (−25)
- 2Q2 0:30Damante 27-yd TD pass to Williams, New Mexico State goes ahead 14-10Sam Houston 55% → 41% (−14)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q1 10:53A fan in the stands wore a cape and bandanna.
Sicko in the stands with no shirt, a bandanna and a cape is MY MAN
r/CFB game thread - Q3 1:18Sam Houston fumbles pitch, NMSU scores TD then misses PATQuoted at the top of the page.
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (New Mexico State -3), at 50% for New Mexico State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show New Mexico State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 12:40New Mexico State punt blocked by T. Guillory IIrecovered by R. Adams in endzone (S.…Q1, 12:40 · New Mexico State 0, Sam Houston 70-7score after the play0-7score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 10:13Locke intercepted by Charles at the Sam Houston 26returned 25 yardsQ2, 10:13 · New Mexico State 0, Sam Houston 70-7score after the play0-7score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 10:07Jones 1-yd TD runties it 7-7Q2, 10:07 · New Mexico State 7, Sam Houston 7▲25%New Mexico State’s chance to win, 26% to 51%▲25%New Mexico State’s chance to win, 26% to 51%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 8:28Williams run for a 5-yd lossfumblesQ2, 8:28 · New Mexico State 7, Sam Houston 7▼12%New Mexico State’s chance to win, 54% to 42%▼12%New Mexico State’s chance to win, 54% to 42%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 0:30Damante 27-yd TD pass to WilliamsNew Mexico State goes ahead 14-10Q2, 0:30 · New Mexico State 14, Sam Houston 10▲14%New Mexico State’s chance to win, 45% to 59%▲14%New Mexico State’s chance to win, 45% to 59%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 15:00Locke 81-yd TD pass to BurnsSam Houston goes ahead 17-14Q3, 15:00 · New Mexico State 14, Sam Houston 17▼12%New Mexico State’s chance to win, 59% to 47%▼12%New Mexico State’s chance to win, 59% to 47%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 10:41Damante 5-yd TD pass to WilliamsNew Mexico State goes ahead 21-17Q3, 10:41 · New Mexico State 21, Sam Houston 17▲14%New Mexico State’s chance to win, 50% to 64%▲14%New Mexico State’s chance to win, 50% to 64%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 6:24Locke sacked for a 7-yd loss; unsportsmanlike conduct on Sam HoustonQ3, 6:24 · New Mexico State 21, Sam Houston 17▲7%New Mexico State’s chance to win, 68% to 75%▲7%New Mexico State’s chance to win, 68% to 75%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 0:33Washington 7-yd TD runNew Mexico State leads 30-17Q3, 0:33 · New Mexico State 30, Sam Houston 17▲6%New Mexico State’s chance to win, 85% to 91%▲6%New Mexico State’s chance to win, 85% to 91%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 8:43Damante intercepted by Adams at the New Mexico State 32Q4, 8:43 · New Mexico State 30, Sam Houston 17▼8%New Mexico State’s chance to win, 100% to 92%▼8%New Mexico State’s chance to win, 100% to 92%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 4:00Dowdy 1-yd TD runcuts it to 30-24Q4, 4:00 · New Mexico State 30, Sam Houston 24▼5%New Mexico State’s chance to win, 92% to 87%▼5%New Mexico State’s chance to win, 92% to 87%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
Every drive
New Mexico State scored on 6 of its 16 drives; Sam Houston on 3 of its 15.
New Mexico State’s drives are teal, Sam Houston’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Sam Houston’s side
Sam Houston’s best moment: Locke 81-yd TD pass to Burns, Sam Houston goes ahead 17-14 (Q3 15:00). It lifted Sam Houston’s win chance by 12 points.
Box score
New Mexico State 30, Sam Houston 24
New Mexico State covered −3 by 3. The total, 54, went over 46.5.
| Team totals | New Mexico State | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 363 | 246 |
| Passing | 19 of 29, 160 yds | 18 of 34, 235 yds |
| Rushing | 42 for 203 yds | 20 for 11 yds |
| First downs | 21 | 9 |
| Third down | 2 of 12 | 3 of 13 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
| Penalties | 6 for 48 yds | 13 for 119 yds |
| Time of possession | 34:34 | 25:26 |
New Mexico State leaders
- Passing Adam Damante 19 of 29, 160 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing James Jones 27 for 178 yds, 1 TD; Terrell Washington Jr. 12 for 40 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving AJ Williams III 3 for 52 yds, 2 TD; Brodrick Malone 3 for 26 yds
Sam Houston leaders
- Passing Landyn Locke 18 of 32, 235 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing MJ Dowdy 4 for 17 yds, 1 TD; Jerrian Parker 3 for 13 yds
- Receiving Tim Burns Jr. 4 for 117 yds, 1 TD; Jerrian Parker 3 for 58 yds
No rain and calm
73° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 2 mph from the east-northeast, gusts to 6
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Huntsville Municipal Airport, 3.5 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
New Mexico State · 2-4
Rated 150th in our preseason ratings, 145th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 18-42 vs New Mexico #58 of 668
lost by 24 as an 11.5-point underdog
Last three games
Sam Houston · 1-5
Rated 165th in our preseason ratings, 165th now.
Three straight losses.
Week by week
Sam Houston
- Wk 2Lvs Tulsa17-23
- Wk 3Wvs Nicholls59-0
- Wk 4Lat Texas Tech14-49
- Wk 6Lat Liberty3-35
- Wk 7Lvs Western Kentucky3-16
New Mexico State
- Wk 1Wvs Mercyhurst51-14
- Wk 2Lat Hawai'i19-29
- Wk 4Lvs New Mexico18-42
- Wk 5Wvs Western Kentucky34-13
- Wk 6Lat Florida International3-22
Power rating by week
New Mexico State is rated 1.4 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: New Mexico State’s passing EPA against Sam Houston, 63 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
New Mexico State’s passing EPA against Sam Houston’s defense
New Mexico State offense, 16th percentile · Sam Houston defense, 79th
Sam Houston’s success rate against New Mexico State’s defense
Sam Houston offense, 8th percentile · New Mexico State defense, 64th
Sam Houston’s explosive plays against New Mexico State’s defense
Sam Houston offense, 84th percentile · New Mexico State defense, 32nd
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
New Mexico State leads the series 2-1
3 meetings since 2023 · New Mexico State won the last meeting
- 2025New Mexico State 37-10
- 2024Sam Houston 31-11
- 2023New Mexico State 27-13
Each line is Sam Houston’s chance to win through that meeting.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
New Mexico State fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (60th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 49%
- Line · 40%
- Sam Houston fans · 22nd
- New Mexico State fans · 60th
New Mexico State favored by 3 · Total 46.5
How games like this usually go
New Mexico State by 3, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 255 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 0.5 points toward New Mexico State.
The total fell 1 point.
Spread: +2.5 → +3 · Total: 47.5 → 46.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Sam Houston is worth +8.1 points (±5.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 98th percentile.
53% at home, 22% on the road against FBS opponents (8-7 home, 5-18 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.2 at home vs. away over 41 games — inside the ±9.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 668 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Sam Houston10th0-2
- New Mexico State5th1-1