Jacksonville State at New Mexico State
Jacksonville State (5‑2) travels to New Mexico State (3‑4). No market line yet; the model gives Jacksonville State a 70% shot. New Mexico State’s passing offense is at the 16th percentile; Jacksonville State’s pass defense is at the 64th.
How they got here
Last three games
Jacksonville State · 5-2
Rated 66th in our preseason ratings, 78th now.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
L 27-29 @ Ohio #54 of 668
lost by 2 as a 1.5-point underdog
Last three games
New Mexico State · 3-4
Rated 150th in our preseason ratings, 144th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 18-42 vs New Mexico #58 of 668
lost by 24 as an 11.5-point underdog
Biggest mismatch: New Mexico State’s passing EPA against Jacksonville State, 48 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
New Mexico State’s passing EPA against Jacksonville State’s defense
New Mexico State offense, 16th percentile · Jacksonville State defense, 64th
New Mexico State’s EPA/play against Jacksonville State’s defense
New Mexico State offense, 13th percentile · Jacksonville State defense, 43rd
What’s at stake
Jacksonville State
- Jacksonville State controls first place in Conference USA with 4 games left.
- Charles Kelly is ahead of Rich Rodriguez’s year-2 pace (5-2 vs. 4-3) — a win here widens the gap, a loss narrows it.
New Mexico State
- New Mexico State is 1 game back in Conference USA with 4 left to make it up.
- A win would be one of New Mexico State’s biggest of the season — a 66-spot gap in the power ratings.
The series
The series is tied 1-1
2 meetings since 2023 · Jacksonville State won the last meeting
- 2024Jacksonville State 54-13
- 2023New Mexico State 20-17
Each line is New Mexico State’s chance to win through that meeting.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Jacksonville State
The chip · vs the national mediaFans hear the program dismissed as an FCS refugee that wandered up a level — never mind two CUSA title-game trips and three straight nine-win seasons. They've stopped waiting for the respect and started just stacking the wins.
What this game touches
Losing Rich Rodriguez right as it got good. Rich Rodriguez built the FBS jump into instant winning, then bolted back to West Virginia after 2024 — the kind of departure that usually resets a young program. The quiet fear in Jacksonville: that a small school is just a launchpad, a place coaches and players use on the way to somewhere bigger.
New Mexico State
The chip · vs the national mediaFans are tired of being college football's punchline for losing — the program everyone schedules as a guaranteed win — and remember that Jerry Kill's 2023 team walked into that reputation and won ten games anyway.
What this game touches
The post-Kill regression. Jerry Kill took the Aggies to 10 wins and a Conference USA title game in 2023, then stepped away. Tony Sanchez went 3-9 in 2024 and 4-8 in 2025 — proof of how fragile the program's good years are, and how quickly the floor returns.
Best players
Jacksonville State
- Caleb Nix (S) · 43 tackles
- Caden Creel (QB) · 1,637 passing yards
- Deondre Johnson (WR) · 431 receiving yards
New Mexico State
- Nicolas Sessions (S) · 53 tackles
- James Jones (RB) · 777 rushing yards
- Tory Gethers (LB) · 45 tackles
The betting line, and the fans
New Mexico State fans are in a better mood than Jacksonville State fans (60th vs 23rd among FBS fanbases), even with Jacksonville State favored.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Aggie Memorial Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 93, 3:30 pm Saturdays 84
Jacksonville State at New Mexico State · Wednesday, Oct. 28 · 8 pm ET · Aggie Memorial Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Aggie Memorial Stadium: noon Saturdays score 87, 3:30 pm 84, 7:30 pm 93.
- noon: 87, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 84, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 93, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
New Mexico State is worth +7.0 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 91st percentile.
39% at home, 22% on the road against FBS opponents (13-20 home, 11-39 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.2 at home vs. away over 92 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,217 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
New Mexico State
- Wk 2Lat Hawai'i19-29
- Wk 4Lvs New Mexico18-42
- Wk 5Wvs Western Kentucky34-13
- Wk 6Lat Florida International3-22
- Wk 8Wat Sam Houston30-24
Jacksonville State
- Wk 2Lat Ohio27-29
- Wk 3Wvs Georgia Southern31-27
- Wk 4Wvs Middle Tennessee23-13
- Wk 6Wat Kennesaw State27-26
- Wk 7Wvs Florida International27-24
Power rating by week
Jacksonville State is rated 5.3 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- New Mexico State5th2-1
- Jacksonville State1st3-0
Last meeting in our History pages
- New Mexico State 20, Jacksonville State 17Nov 25, 2023