Jacksonville State beats Kennesaw State 27-26
Team pages: Jacksonville State · Kennesaw State
Jacksonville State beat Kennesaw State 27-26. Share this game
We had Jacksonville State favored. It won.
Next: Jacksonville State beat Florida International 27-24, Tue Oct 13
Next: Kennesaw State lost to Missouri State 24-21, Wed Oct 14
Top comment in the game thread
Believe it or not, flag
How it swung
The turning point: Rippa 33-yd field goal, Jacksonville State goes ahead 27-26 (Q4, 0:52). Jacksonville State went from 63% to 100% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Jacksonville State a 72% chance, and the closing betting line (Jacksonville State was a 3-point favorite) put it at 60%.
Down to 16% in the third quarter, Jacksonville State came back to win.
Up to 84% in the third quarter, then Kennesaw State lost it.
Jacksonville State 27-26 Kennesaw State
Jacksonville State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Kennesaw State 26-27 Jacksonville StateKennesaw State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 0:26Likely 3-yd TD run, cuts it to 23-21Jacksonville State 21% → 43% (+22)
- 2Q4 0:52Rippa 33-yd field goal, Jacksonville State goes ahead 27-26Jacksonville State 63% → 100% (+37)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 0:26Likely 3-yd TD run, cuts it to 23-21Kennesaw State 79% → 57% (−22)
- 2Q4 0:52Rippa 33-yd field goal, Jacksonville State goes ahead 27-26Kennesaw State 37% → 0% (−37)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q2 14:37Jacksonville State scores on Creel pass to Williams after roughing the kicker penalty
Ah yes, the confusion on the penalty when his head goes backwards
r/CFB game thread - Q4 11:26Fans blame refs for Jacksonville State's drive as Creel passes to Williams
This touchdown is sponsored by the refs
r/CFB game threadrefs hate kennesaw
r/CFB game thread - Q4 7:38Fans criticize blatant Kennesaw State penalties and a player's screaming injury
Oh, dude was screaming. That's gonna be a bad injury
r/CFB game thread“This guy is in bad shape.” *Just focuses on him screaming* Great job guys
r/CFB game thread - Q4 1:50Fans argue refs bailed out Creel's deep pass with a holding flagQuoted at the top of the page.
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Jacksonville State -3), at 45% for Jacksonville State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Every drive
Jacksonville State scored on 5 of its 12 drives; Kennesaw State on 5 of its 11.
Jacksonville State’s drives are teal, Kennesaw State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Kennesaw State’s side
Kennesaw State’s best moment: Farrington 2-yd run, fumbles (Q4 6:18). It lifted Kennesaw State’s win chance by 18 points.
“Quick. Point the camera into the concession stands.”
When fans got loud
Firestorm
Fans peaked right at the end.
The jump was firestorm; the crowd was quiet.
A large share of the loudest stretch was about the officiating.
7 lead changes. Too close to call on 83% of plays. The winner fell to 13%.
What it cost
Jacksonville State’s chance to win the conference rose from 23% to 28%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 6, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Jacksonville State 27, Kennesaw State 26
Kennesaw State covered +3 by 2. The total, 53, went over 48.5.
| Team totals | Jacksonville State | Kennesaw State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 385 | 410 |
| Passing | 26 of 44, 311 yds | 24 of 35, 293 yds |
| Rushing | 30 for 74 yds | 30 for 117 yds |
| First downs | 27 | 22 |
| Third down | 7 of 14 | 5 of 11 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
| Penalties | 11 for 93 yds | 15 for 137 yds |
| Time of possession | 29:02 | 30:58 |
Jacksonville State leaders
- Passing Caden Creel 26 of 44, 311 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Jalen Likely 11 for 40 yds, 1 TD; Caden Creel 10 for 30 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Deondre Johnson 4 for 112 yds; Luke Gilbert 3 for 50 yds
Kennesaw State leaders
- Passing Rickie Collins 24 of 34, 293 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing Rickie Collins 15 for 61 yds, 1 TD; Alan Woods III 8 for 37 yds
- Receiving Brayden Munroe 7 for 159 yds; Javon Rogers 3 for 35 yds, 1 TD
No rain through the game
77° at kickoff · no rain recorded
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Marietta airport, 2.1 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Jacksonville State · 3-2
Rated 66th in our preseason ratings, 71st now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 27-29 @ Ohio #54 of 668
lost by 2 as a 1.5-point underdog
Last 4 games
Kennesaw State · 1-3
Rated 158th in our preseason ratings, 157th now.
1-3 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Kennesaw State
- Wk 1Wvs West Georgia47-0
- Wk 2Lvs Georgia State17-31
- Wk 3Lat Tennessee9-42
- Wk 4Lat Arkansas State14-17
Jacksonville State
- Wk 1Lat North Dakota State7-33
- Wk 1Wvs Eastern Kentucky49-7
- Wk 2Lat Ohio27-29
- Wk 3Wvs Georgia Southern31-27
- Wk 4Wvs Middle Tennessee23-13
Power rating by week
Jacksonville State is rated 6.6 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Kennesaw State’s explosive plays against Jacksonville State, 80 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Kennesaw State’s explosive plays against Jacksonville State’s defense
Kennesaw State offense, 6th percentile · Jacksonville State defense, 86th
Jacksonville State’s passing EPA against Kennesaw State’s defense
Jacksonville State offense, 72nd percentile · Kennesaw State defense, 20th
Jacksonville State’s success rate against Kennesaw State’s defense
Jacksonville State offense, 73rd percentile · Kennesaw State defense, 39th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Kennesaw State leads the series 4-3
7 meetings since 2017 · Kennesaw State won the last meeting
- 2025Kennesaw State 19-15
- 2025Jacksonville State 35-26
- 2024Jacksonville State 63-24
- 2022Jacksonville State 35-28
- 2021Kennesaw State 31-6
Each line is Kennesaw State’s chance to win through that meeting. Kennesaw State is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Kennesaw State fans are in a better mood than Jacksonville State fans (54th vs 11th among FBS fanbases), even with Jacksonville State favored.
- Model · 28%
- Line · 40%
- Kennesaw State fans · 54th
- Jacksonville State fans · 11th
Jacksonville State favored by 3 · Total 48.5
How games like this usually go
Jacksonville State by 3, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 0.5 points toward Jacksonville State.
Spread: +2.5 → +3
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Kennesaw State is worth +5.8 points (±6.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 79th percentile.
62% at home, 22% on the road against FBS opponents (8-5 home, 5-18 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +5.1 at home vs. away over 34 games — inside the ±9.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 70 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Kennesaw State 19, Jacksonville State 15Conference USA Championship · Dec 5, 2025
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Kennesaw State5th0-0
- Jacksonville State1st1-0