CFB Zeitgeist

Home Conferences FBS 2026 season

VERDICT BEGINS · 2026

Conference USA

Coaching Premium League

The 2026 Conference USA season is underway — Delaware holds the early power lead, but the picture is still open.

Conference USA is outperforming its raw power profile. The league body of work is stronger than the market would expect.

#9overall
#9in FBS
+16.7RR50
+20.1upper strength
10teams
0top-25 teams
Power snapshot Projected 2026 standing

Coaching Premium League

North Texas went 12-2 in 2025 with a recruiting class ranked #112 nationally. Old Dominion went 10-3 with a #102 class. UTSA finished at SP+ #26 with a #107 recruiting rank. The top three teams in Conference USA all carry coaching premiums above +80 — which means the coaches in this conference are collectively doing more with less than nearly any other league in FBS. Meanwhile UTEP went 2-10 with the #70 recruiting class.

0 top-25 teams.

The depth argument for this conference rests on how many credible opponents are clustered behind the leader. The gap between the top and bottom is narrow — a sign of genuine parity.

Where things stand right now.

The 2026 Conference USA season is underway — Delaware holds the early power lead, but the picture is still open.

Tools Matchup Simulator Compare Teams Playoff Forecast Style map Head to head Power map

North Texas Went 12-2 With the 112th Recruiting Class

North Texas's coaching premium is +100 — the gap between their #112 recruiting rank and their #12 SP+ rating. Twelve wins in 2025 from a program in Denton, Texas that competes for recruits in the shadow of Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, and Baylor. No transfer portal intervention, no sudden spike in NIL budget: just a coaching staff that turns players other programs passed over into a team that wins twelve games. If Conference USA gets talked about nationally, this is why.

Why it matters →

Old Dominion's 10-3 Season Matches the North Texas Story

Old Dominion went 10-3 in 2025 with a recruiting class ranked #102 nationally — a +91 coaching premium that makes them the second-best overperformer in the conference. The program that started as an FCS power in Norfolk, Virginia and made the move to FBS in 2012 has spent more than a decade proving it belongs. Ten wins in 2025 is the most compelling argument they've made yet.

Why it matters →

UTEP Recruited at #70 and Went 2-10

UTEP's coaching gap is -51: a #70 recruiting class — the conference's best after Rice's #70 match — produced a 2-10 season. Charlotte went 1-11. Middle Tennessee went 3-9 with a #98 class. The bottom of Conference USA is a study in what happens when G5 programs recruit well enough to create expectations but can't close the gap on the field. Every win by North Texas and Old Dominion lands differently when you know this is the same conference.

Why it matters →

Active arcs our read

All arcs →
Fan pulse Last 30 days · 1,028 mentions
18% positive 54% neutral 28% negative
Jacksonville State
355
↓ negative
Kennesaw State
265
↓ negative
Florida International
119
↓ negative
Delaware
74
↓ negative
Liberty
57
↓ negative
Sam Houston
55
→ neutral
Fan confidence — FBS percentile

Where each Conference USA program stands nationally in fan sentiment (100th = most positive in FBS, 0 = least). Conference median: 78th percentile.

Kennesaw State
Bullish+30
Delaware
Bullish+5
Sam Houston
Bullish+9
Liberty
Mixed-10

Most volatile: Kennesaw State

Fan confidence has swung 74 percentile points in the last 8 weeks — currently at the 93rd percentile nationally.

The coaching premium
Recruiting class rank vs. SP+ performance — where coaches add or subtract value
Above line = coaching premium
Below line = underperforming
Gap = recruiting rank minus SP+ rank

Positive gap means the coaching staff won more than the recruiting class predicted. Data: Conference USA teams, 10 programs.

Coaching grades
Coaching premium ↑
Delaware
+67
Missouri
+35
Jacksonville
+23
Western
+17
Liberty
+12
Underperforming ↓
Kennesaw
-22
Florida
-14
Sam
-4
Middle
-1

Standings

2026 season, in progress — sorted by power rating. Stature tag = interim Zeitgeist calibration (medium confidence).

Projected Standings · Conference USA · 2026

Win Projection

Odds of winning at least N conference games from current power ratings — full slate played out, not locked to results. AVG = expected wins; W–L = most-likely record.

# Team W–L PWR AVG ≥8≥7≥6≥5≥4≥3≥2≥1
Favorites
1Delaware5–3+5.45.021438678797
2Jacksonville State5–3+3.74.8193058829599
Challengers
3Western Kentucky5–3+3.54.7192956819499
4Liberty4–4+0.14.141639678897
5Missouri State4–4+0.44.031437658797
The Field
6Florida International4–4-1.73.72102957829599
7Middle Tennessee4–4-1.93.6292653799499
8Sam Houston4–4-2.73.6282551789499
Rebuilding
9New Mexico State3–5-2.93.3161944719199
10Kennesaw State3–5-4.03.1141638668898

How they play

Six advanced-stat dimensions per team, ranked against all 134 FBS programs, 2026 season. Every column reads higher-is-better. Click a column to sort.

ScoringConvertsBig playsDefensePacePass rate
Team ScoringConvertsBig playsDefensePacePass rate Identity
Delaware+0.1242.0%+1.34-0.0368.052.9%Balanced
Jacksonville State+0.2145.1%+1.22-0.0559.043.6%Balanced
Western Kentucky-0.1631.9%+1.18-0.4872.350.2%Defense is the problem
Missouri State+0.1640.1%+1.16-0.2161.038.8%Defense is the problem
Liberty+0.1143.2%+1.29-0.1165.036.9%Balanced
Florida International+0.0638.0%+1.28+0.0176.356.8%High-tempo
Middle Tennessee+0.2443.0%+1.20-0.0761.355.4%Balanced
Sam Houston+0.2447.6%+1.23+0.0570.353.5%Balanced
New Mexico State+0.1943.8%+1.45-0.1365.751.3%Big-play offense
Kennesaw State+0.1244.5%+1.08-0.1367.051.2%No explosive plays

Identity is the single dimension where a team is most above or below the FBS average (pace, defense, big plays, or converting drives) — "Balanced" means nothing stands out either way. CFBD 2026 advanced stats, excludes garbage time.

Top players

Conference USA's highest CFB Index Scores, 2025 season.

#PlayerTeamNational
1Jakari FosterSLouisiana Tech#4 of 544
2Elijah HillEDGEKennesaw State#12 of 420
3Damonte SmithIDLMiddle Tennessee#9 of 330
4Cam CookRBJacksonville State#5 of 326
5Mister ClarkCBFlorida International#12 of 364
6Kadarion JohnsonIDLUTEP#12 of 330
7Naeten MitchellSNew Mexico State#12 of 544
8Jacob FieldsSLouisiana Tech#20 of 544
9Sifa LeotaLBLouisiana Tech#40 of 583
10Walker O'SteenLBJacksonville State#41 of 583

Where Conference USA stands nationally

Conference strength by RR50 (round-robin adjusted power).

1 SEC SEC
+23.0
2 B10 Big Ten
+21.8
3 IND FBS Independents
+20.5
4 P12 Pac-12
+20.0
5 B12 Big 12
+20.0
6 ACC ACC
+19.4
7 AAC American Athletic
+17.6
8 SB Sun Belt
+17.2
9 CUSA Conference USA
+16.7
10 MAC Mid-American
+16.2