3Jacksonville State shifts fanbase identity, redefining program.
Charles Kelly's first season at Jacksonville State arrives with a 9-5 record and a fanbase uneasy about sustaining the program's recent bowl-winning momentum.
3Charles Kelly's first season at Jacksonville State arrives with a 9-5 record and a fanbase uneasy about sustaining the program's recent bowl-winning momentum.
Jacksonville State jumped to the FBS in 2023 and just won nine games for the third year running — a little Alabama school playing with house money and refusing to act overwhelmed by any of it.
Fans hear the program dismissed as an FCS refugee that wandered up a level — never mind two CUSA title-game trips and three straight nine-win seasons. They've stopped waiting for the respect and start…
Approaching
23 days
until kickoff · at North Dakota State · Sat Aug 29 · 21:30 UTC
Jacksonville State is the Conference USA newcomer whose 2023 FBS reclassification + Rich Rodriguez 2024 9-4 + 2025 New Mexico Bowl championship make them the most-recent multi-tier ascent + bowl-winning team in CFB.
The team returns 84% of its roster and has a net portal importer profile with 20 transfers in.
Cocky the Gamecock is patient.
the open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?
Charles Kelly replaces Rich Rodriguez’s 17-8 run with 84% production returning — the first test for Jacksonville State’s bowl-winning ascension in Conference USA.
Charles Kelly begins his first season at Jacksonville State with a 9-5 record under his belt, but the program's uneasy fanbase questions if the coordinator-driven reshaping can sustain the new multi-tier ascent.
Deondre Johnson is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks, and he catches those deep shots at a plus rate.
Caleb Coombs is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Charles Kelly begins his first season at Jacksonville State with a 9-5 record under his belt, but the program's uneasy fanbase questions if the coordinator-driven reshaping can sustain the recent bowl-winning momentum.
Jacksonville State dropped 19 spots in SP+ — the 9-5 record and top-quintile returning production contrast with the 2025 SP+ slide, raising questions about sustainability under Charles Kelly’s first season.
Charles Kelly's first season at Jacksonville State arrives with a 9-5 record and a fanbase uneasy about sustaining the program's recent bowl-winning momentum.
Top 3 commits
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Jacksonville State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Charles Kelly took over as Jacksonville State's head coach, replacing Rich Rodriguez. It is replaces 2-year head coach Rich Rodriguez (17-8). The hire has receded from the front page. The roster and recruiting pipeline are the real measure now. The discourse has moved on; what's left is the quiet work of building something.
The 'this hire changes everything' takes -- new-era believers making the case early.
The 'show me the body of work' counter -- resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.
Jacksonville State: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
Only 4 of 54 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.
Opens Aug 29
vs North Dakota State · away
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
AL leads the 2026 class with 13 commits. National footprint reaching 5 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
90 signees across 10 states, 2023-2026. AL leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
8 games with TV coverage: 3 ESPN, 4 cable, 1 streaming
Kickoff windows: 1 noon, 1 afternoon, 6 primetime
Recovering 59% of the fumbles they've forced — running hot vs. the ~49% league rate.
10 of 17 forced fumbles recovered; 5 of 11 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.
Converting 21% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~19% league rate.
12 interceptions of 56 disrupted passes (44 deflected, 12 intercepted), 2025 only.
Losing the penalty battle: 80 penalties committed vs. 90 drawn on opponents, a 40-yard deficit.
788 penalty yards committed vs. 748 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
What little we hear
Only 2 cohort(s) cleared the signal floor this week, so we won’t stage a split we can’t back. Here’s the honest read:
How Jacksonville State fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
~ our readNot enough Jacksonville State chatter this week to read the room.
We read 41 Jacksonville State posts this week — not enough to call the room. Check back during the season.
“I finally got to turn the game on TV. Color commentator sounds like he's calling JV football”— r/CFB
“Good defense. Good run game. Shit at throwing the ball. Yup, this is a genuine Jax State football team alright.”— r/CFB
“Game should come out of intermission at 9:29pm ET/8:29pm CT. The following game is in progress: Kennesaw St @ FIU (ESPN2) - Out of halftime at 9:12pm ET/8:12pm CT.”— r/CFB
“Pleased with the defense for the majority of the game. They did much better than I expected. We really need Creel back, though, as the offense is much better with him leading it.”— r/CFB
“Oh... Third String QB. I just turned the game on and kept hearing Thirteenth Quarterback and was very confused”— r/CFB
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Fanbase Health Index · Jacksonville State · high confidence
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.15 EPA/play | 12 | 14 | 130 / 211 | 61.6 | 1514 | 7.2 | 9 | 4 | 132.2 | 58.4 | 6.2 | 7.5 | |
Yards by week → ScramblerMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 45 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Rush usage46.3% 99th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush yards / carry5.9 95th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Caden Creel's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Scrambler · +0.19 EPA/play | 2 | 12 | 63 / 112 | 56.2 | 731 | 6.5 | 4 | 2 | 119.3 | 48.8 | 5.9 | 3.4 | |
Yards by week → ScramblerMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 45 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Rush usage31.7% 81th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Yards / attempt5.4 bottom 5th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Gavin Wimsatt's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.18 EPA/play | 4 | 13 | 296 | 1666 #1 FBS | 5.6 | 16 #6 FBS | 73 | 29.6 | 28.6 | 20.1 | 18.4 | 15.2% (43/283) | |
Yards by week → Balanced Back· Boom-or-bustPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry5.5 64th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception9.5 71th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score moved from the 32nd to 99th percentile among FBS RBs | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · -0.01 EPA/play | 22 | 12 | 51 | 201 | 3.9 | 1 | 17 | 4 | 4.1 | 15.7 | 9.8 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry3.6 bottom 7th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share5.6% bottom 17th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Khristian Lando's full player page | |||||||||||||
| +0.19 EPA/play | — | 10 | 30 | 127 | 4.2 | 3 | 42 | 4.8 | 3 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.89 EPA/play | 11 | 11 | 30 | 724 | 24.1 | 6 #62 FBS | 77 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 16.3% (46/283) | |
Yards by week → Deep Threat· Money-downStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. The rare part: he takes the top off a defense — and he finds the end zone, too 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception21.1 98th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate20.0% 97th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like View Deondre Johnson's full player page | |||||||||||
| Jump-Ball Target · +0.36 EPA/play | 3 | 11 | 36 | 383 | 10.6 | 5 | 56 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 17.3% (49/283) | |
Yards by week → Jump-Ball Target· Boom-or-bustWins contested catches at the goal line. Size and catch radius are the weapons. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 29 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TD rate13.9% 81th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Yards / reception10.9 bottom 27th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Brock Rechsteiner's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.25 EPA/play | 13 | 13 | 26 | 302 | 11.6 | 2 | 52 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 12.7% (36/283) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception11.4 54th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.2 bottom 23th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Pearson Baldwin's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.11 EPA/play | 16 | 13 | 37 | 277 | 7.5 | 0 | 24 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 18.4% (52/283) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception7.6 bottom 7th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.1 bottom 8th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Caleb Coombs's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.97 EPA/play | 84 | 4 | 5 | 62 | 12.4 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 2.5 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.00 EPA/play | 1 | 8 | 8 | 59 | 7.4 | 0 | 18 | 2.5 | 3.2 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 92 | 13 | 55 | 28 | 7 | 1.5 | 3 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate12.7% bottom 42th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score moved from the 42nd to 94th percentile among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| Versatile End | 99 | 13 | 41 | 27 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 6 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 139 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate15.9% bottom 36th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| Versatile End | 91 | 11 | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 5 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 139 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate27.3% 76th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score moved from the 20th to 54th percentile among FBS EDGEs | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 93 | 6 | 21 | 10 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate7.1% bottom 22th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score climbed from the 96th percentile to the 10th among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 96 | 10 | 21 | 13 | 4 | 3.5 | 0 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate19.0% 68th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 29th percentile to the 51st among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 44 | 10 | 20 | 12 | 4.5 | 2 | 0 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate22.5% 80th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Khurtiss Perry's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 16 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate8.3% bottom 25th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Quay Hood's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 4 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 139 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate5.0% bottom 9th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Shane Payton Hodges's full player page | |||||||
| 47 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 55 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 28 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 59 | 12 | 83 | 44 | 39 | 11.5 #62 FBS | 1.5 | 2 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume83 87th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate13.9% 74th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Mac Sanders's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 40 | 13 | 78 | 48 | 30 | 6 | 2.5 | 1 | 3 #56 FBS |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 86th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume78 83th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 49 | 9 | 33 | 21 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 90th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Thaxton Gallagher's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 7 | 11 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 5.5 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume31 bottom 24th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate9.7% 91th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Isaac Walker's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 21 | 8 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.3% 83th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Myles Butler's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 54 | 7 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume16 bottom 11th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Khari Bendolph's full player page | |||||||||
| 13 | 8 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 35 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid Nickel | 43 | 14 | 64 | 4 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt View Trevor Woods's full player pagePD rate6.2% bottom 41th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles | |||||||
| Rover | 1 | 14 | 63 | 3 | 4 #23 FBS | 4 | 0 |
Rover· Takeaway threatHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate4.8% bottom 33th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| Box Safety | 12 | 13 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume51 66th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score moved from the 1st to 59th percentile among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 3 | 10 | 36 | 9 #36 FBS | 1 | 1.5 | 0 |
Ball HawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. 44 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate25.0% 88th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tre'Quon Fegans's full player page | |||||||
| Press Corner | 5 | 13 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Press CornerLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. 43 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'2" 87th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tyrin Taylor's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 20 | 11 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate16.0% 86th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Travis Franklin Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 22 | 8 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ball HawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. 44 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate23.8% 86th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jaheim Jenkins's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 31 | 7 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate12.5% 73th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Marc Woods's full player page | |||||||
| 6 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cover Corner | 10 | 7 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 141 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.3% bottom 30th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View RJ Rainer's full player page | |||||||
| 14 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 37 | 14 | 21/28 | 75 | 40/40 | 103 | 52 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 4 | 7 | 282 | 40.3 | 45 | 2 | 0 | |
| Steady | 87 | 14 | 53 | 2097 | 39.6 | 57 | 15 | 3 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.34 EPA/play | 81 | 6 | 5 | 88 | 17.6 | 0 | 21 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rover | 1 | 14 | 3 | 27 | 9 | 0 | 15 |
| +0.00 EPA/play | 1 | 8 | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 | 11 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+19 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 28 | #53 | #95 | +20.5 | @UCF | L 10–17 138 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #56 | #60 | +6.5 | Liberty | W 34–24 126 | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #55 | #75 | +3.5 | @Georgia Southern | L 34–41 133 | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #61 | #255 | -35.5 | Murray State | W 45–10 145 | 2-2 | 1-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #59 | #178 | +5.5 | @Southern Miss | L 25–42 150 | 2-3 | 1-0 |
| 7 | Oct 10 | #80 | #180 | -7 | Sam Houston (N) | W 29–27 132 | 3-3 | 2-0 |
| 8 | Oct 15 | #86 | #111 | +3 | Delaware | W 38–25 146 | 4-3 | 3-0 |
| 10 | Oct 29 | #89 | #167 | -4.5 | @Middle Tennessee | W 24–21 137 | 5-3 | 4-0 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #89 | #164 | -1.5 | @UTEP | W 30–27 139 | 6-3 | 4-0 |
| 12 | Nov 16 | #92 | #114 | +3.5 | Kennesaw State | W 35–26 146 | 7-3 | 5-0 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #94 | #106 | +2.5 | @Florida International | L 21–27 146 | 7-4 | 5-1 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #94 | #88 | +1.5 | Western Kentucky | W 37–34 129 | 8-4 | 6-1 |
| Conference Championship | ||||||||
| 15 | Dec 6 | #95 | #107 | -1.5 | Kennesaw State | L 15–19 130 | 8-5 | 6-2 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 16 | Dec 17 | #99 | #109 | -3.5 | Troy (N) | W 17–13 | 9-5 | 6-2 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17 | Troy | W 17–13 | — | — | — | -0.058 | 29.4% | 139.6% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Dec 6 | Kennesaw State | L 15–19 | 306 | 1 | 28:48 | +0.077 | 45.2% | 104.3% | One-score loss |
| Nov 29 | Western Kentucky | W 37–34 | 515 | 1 | 31:24 | +0.311 | 42.0% | 155.6% | Most explosive |
| Nov 22 | @Florida International | L 21–27 | 449 | 2 | 28:22 | +0.009 | 44.3% | 111.6% | One-score loss |
| Nov 16 | Kennesaw State | W 35–26 | 451 | 0 | 25:38 | +0.468 | 47.4% | 141.5% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Nov 8 | @UTEP | W 30–27 | 456 | 1 | 30:27 | +0.231 | 51.4% | 107.1% | One-score win |
| Oct 29 | @Middle Tennessee | W 24–21 | 358 | 0 | 33:00 | +0.131 | 45.9% | 116.1% | One-score win |
| Oct 15 | Delaware | W 38–25 | 388 | 0 | 32:22 | +0.155 | 38.4% | 141.3% | |
| Oct 10 | Sam Houston | W 29–27 | 499 | 1 | 35:13 | +0.252 | 43.0% | 129.5% | One-score win |
| Sep 27 | @Southern Miss | L 25–42 | 390 | 4 | 30:58 | +0.032 | 39.7% | 137.8% | |
| Sep 20 | Murray State | W 45–10 | 536 | 0 | 30:32 | +0.421 | 59.5% | 105.7% | Best success rate |
| Sep 13 | @Georgia Southern | L 34–41 | 394 | 1 | 30:30 | +0.307 | 47.7% | 120.7% | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 6 | Liberty | W 34–24 | 395 | 0 | 30:24 | +0.256 | 41.9% | 138.3% | |
| Aug 28 | @UCF | L 10–17 | 322 | 1 | 28:04 | +0.069 | 38.2% | 128.4% | One-score loss |
| Season average (14 games) | 420 | 0.9 | +0.190 | 43.9% | 126.9% | ||||
Jacksonville State fields a capable run-heavy offense behind a solid, gives up the big play defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
54th percentile quality, 38th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 62nd percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 63rd — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
59th percentile success on standard downs, 56th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 59th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 63rd — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.19; 70th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.05. The widest gap came in week 4: 0.26 raw vs. 0.07 adjusted.
Jacksonville State reads strongest in rushing epa (top 16%) and success rate (top 34%); the crux lives in explosive plays allowed, where Jacksonville State sits at the 27th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · Jacksonville State
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Jacksonville State · 2018-present
80% home win rate vs 48% on the road. margin runs +11.2 better at home. AmFirst Stadium seats 24,000, averaging 80% full (19,117 attendance, 19 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Cam Cook and Khristian Lando split the carries (285/336 vs 51/336) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Caleb Coombs (WR) and Pearson Baldwin (TE) split the targets (52/88 vs 36/88) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Pearson Baldwin produces in bigger chunks.
What changed
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved up 7 points. The rest held closer to steady.
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved up 12 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, Jacksonville State’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (64.9% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 173-play sample) — mid-pack, 47 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
71°F average kickoff temp; 10% of games had measurable precipitation; 5 mph average wind.
Based on 29 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
Jacksonville State's 2014–2025 record is 102-41. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 1909 · 45 seasons · .641 win rate
Jacksonville State joined the FBS in 2023. Three years in, three nine-win seasons. Rich Rodriguez left after one of them. It didn't matter.
Jacksonville State is not supposed to be here, and it has never let that stop it. A small school in Jacksonville, Alabama — enrollment under eleven thousand — that spent years as an FCS giant-killer, most famously stunning Florida State in Tallahassee in 2017 before anyone had any reason to watch. The FBS jump came in 2023, and instead of the stumble newcomers are supposed to take, the Gamecocks won nine games. Then nine more. Then nine more again.
Rich Rodriguez built the first two seasons, then left for West Virginia after 2024. First-year head coach Charles Kelly didn't miss a beat — nine wins, a second straight Conference USA Championship Game appearance, and a bowl win over in-state rival Troy in the Salute to Veterans Bowl that reclaimed the Ol' School Bell. That's four straight coaches who won nine games in year one at Jacksonville State, which is either program-building at its purest or the most extraordinary streak of transition luck in the sport. The fanbase has chosen to believe the former.
The 2026 question in Jacksonville is the one that keeps getting deferred: when does house money become a Conference USA title? Two championship-game trips, two losses. The Gamecocks have proved they belong. The next step is proving they can close. Kelly has the roster returning, the schedule is manageable, and a small Alabama town has gotten very comfortable with the idea of winning in a league that didn't expect them to.
Fast, physical, fearless football from a program built on the belief that preparation and toughness outweigh enrollment numbers. The scheme under Rodriguez and now Kelly emphasizes ball control and defensive pressure — not the spread-and-score identity you'd expect from a newcomer trying to recruit its way in, but a grind-and-suffocate approach that makes programs with bigger rosters uncomfortable. The fan culture is tight, loud, and grateful in the exact way of a small town that knows what it has.
Jacksonville State 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (-0.01 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 3.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 9-5
Jacksonville State: 6+ wins, bowl access secured. The baseline of a successful FBS year.
Conference USA Standing · 2025
Jacksonville State is 2nd in the Conference USA at 6-2. 1 team above — that's the direct path to the title game.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kennesaw State | 6-1 |
| 2 | Jacksonville State | 6-2 |
| 3 | Western Kentucky | 5-2 |
| 4 | Florida International | 5-3 |
| 5 | Missouri State | 4-2 |
| 6 | Delaware | 2-4 |
| 7 | Liberty | 2-4 |
| 8 | Middle Tennessee | 2-6 |
| 9 | New Mexico State | 1-5 |
| 10 | Sam Houston | 1-5 |
Coaching Era · Jacksonville State
Charles Kelly in year 2 of the rebuild. The methodology is taking shape.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 2022
Rich Rodriguez's 2022 hire — coming from Arizona/West Virginia/Michigan-era ASU departure — was an unconventional FCS/G5 hire. The 2024 9-4 + New Mexico Bowl championship (first FBS bowl win) opened the Conference USA-era ascent. Rodriguez's spread-option offensive identity + recruiting reach gave Jacksonville State sudden national-narrative legitimacy at the C-USA tier.
since 2023
Jacksonville State's 2023 FBS reclassification + Conference USA entry was the most-recent FCS-to-FBS-conference ascent in CFB. The transition opened bowl eligibility + national TV exposure + recruiting upside. The 2024 9-4 second-FBS-season + New Mexico Bowl win confirmed the program's competitive viability.
since 1947
Jacksonville State's Gamecock mascot — adopted 1947 — predates the more-famous South Carolina Gamecock by decades in terms of program-identity ownership. The Alabama-Gamecock-not-South-Carolina-Gamecock distinction matters in CFB recruiting + cultural identity. The mascot's Cocky-the-Gamecock costumed character + the rooster-iconography in marketing make the identity uniquely JSU.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2017
FCS Jacksonville State stuns Florida State in Tallahassee — the program's giant-killer calling card
2024
JSU wins its first FBS bowl under Rich Rodriguez, capping a 9-win debut FBS-bowl season
2025
Charles Kelly's Gamecocks beat in-state Troy 17-13 to reclaim the Ol' School Bell and finish 9-5
Moment of the Year · Jacksonville State · 2025
Week 16 of 2025. Postseason win — the season-defining moment.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2025 — win 17-13 (home). Last 5 postseason: 3-2.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Hired for 2026: Taylor Housewright — not yet reflected in on-field data.
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