deep threatthis cycle✓ factnew
Deondre Johnson is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks, and he catches those deep shots at a plus rate.
our readdeveloping
Jacksonville State
2-2Latest
Jacksonville State schedules series with San Jose State for 2026our readJacksonville State: the fanbase's identity shifting.our read
Conference USA · Charles Kelly, year 2 (11-7) · AmFirst Stadium · 24,000 · 17,909 avg in 2026
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#63 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #83 (-3.2) · FPI #109
The marketJacksonville State by 7vs Middle Tennessee · our model 78% Jacksonville State · a number, not a pick
LastW 31–27 vs Georgia Southern · Sat Sep 19 · Caden Creel 194 pass yds, 2 TD, 38 rush yds
Nextvs Middle Tennessee · Sat Sep 26 · 7 pm ET · AmFirst Stadium · Jacksonville State by 7 · series 3-0, won the last 3 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 22 · through week 3
Jacksonville State · 2026 schedule & results2-2
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #66 | #89 | +6.5✗ | @North Dakota State | L 7–33 121 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | #66 | #154 | -22✓ | Eastern Kentucky | W 49–7 118 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #69 | #48 | +1.5✗ | @Ohio | L 27–29 138 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #62 | #84 | -3.5✓ | Georgia Southern | W 31–27 121 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #62 | #124 | -7 | Middle Tennessee | |||
| 6 | Oct 7 | @Kennesaw State | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 14 | Florida International | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 29 | @New Mexico State | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 8 | Sam Houston | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Western Kentucky | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Missouri State | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Delaware |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 | Georgia Southern | W 31–27 | 302 | 1 | 23:37 | +0.368 | 41.2% | 135.9% | One-score win |
| Sep 12 | @Ohio | L 27–29 | 447 | 1 | 28:25 | +0.269 | 47.9% | 111.9% | One-score loss |
| Sep 5 | Eastern Kentucky | W 49–7 | 526 | 1 | 26:33 | +0.547 | 60.3% | 140.7% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | @North Dakota State | L 7–33 | 170 | 2 | 23:53 | -0.324 | 30.9% | 98.2% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Season average (4 games) | 361 | 1.2 | +0.215 | 45.1% | 121.7% | ||||
Verdict Begins·Live
Jacksonville State jumped to the FBS in 2023 and just won nine games for the third year running — a little Alabama school playing with house money and refusing to act overwhelmed by any of it.
Title DroughtSince 2023 · 3 yrs
Fans hear the program dismissed as an FCS refugee that wandered up a level — never mind two CUSA title-game trips and three straight nine-win seasons. They've stopped waiting for the respect and…
low signal
The season in chapters
Ahead
What fans said
Jacksonville State fans
Jacksonville State fans
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2026 · 2-2
Game feel52even gamescombined pts / game1st highest-scoring of 1 in the Conference USA
Heart rate1-1some dramain one-score games (2 of 4)1st most one-score games of 1 in the Conference USA
Margin+4.5competitiveavg scoring margin1st best margin of 1 in the Conference USA
Tempo59methodicaloffensive plays / game10th fastest of 10 in the Conference USA
Big plays1.22some popexplosiveness (IsoPPP)6th most explosive of 10 in the Conference USA
Home crowd17,910avg attendance2nd biggest crowds of 9 in the Conference USA
✓ measured from 4 games · ranks are among Conference USA teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Jacksonville State has won three of its last five.
Mixed. 6-4 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Streak W1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 6-4
The forecast
Next Sep 26
vs Middle Tennessee · at home
Season line6.5 winsover -159
SolidSolidBend-don't-break
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total1 booksO/U 6.5
CFP championship#102 in field+100000
C-USA title#3 in market+500
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-22
Jacksonville State · the story right now
3 storylines developing
What Jacksonville State's season is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
coaching2025 cycle~readnew
Charles Kelly replaces Rich Rodriguez’s 17-8 run with 84% production returning — the first test for Jacksonville State’s bowl-winning ascension in Conference USA.
what happenedCharles Kelly took over as Jacksonville State's head coach, replacing Rich Rodriguez. ✓ fact
the contextreplaces 2-year head coach Rich Rodriguez (18-9)
our readfront page
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Caleb Coombs is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
How past storylines here turned out
AnsweredJacksonville State's head-coaching hire held for another season.
Died downJacksonville State's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
ReplacedJacksonville State's offensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →
Outcome band · Jacksonville State · 2026
Outcome band · Jacksonville State · 2026Jacksonville State's most likely season is 8-5 — a bowl game. The floor is 5-7; the ceiling is 10-3.
Floor 5-7Ceiling 10-3Base 8-5
0 wins13 wins
Floor5-7No postseason.
Base8-5A bowl game.
Ceiling10-3A bowl game, 2 more wins.
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
More in this tab
Game day
The experience
Jacksonville State is the Conference USA newcomer whose 2023 FBS reclassification + Rich Rodriguez 2024 9-4 + 2025 New Mexico Bowl championship make them the most-recent multi-tier ascent + bowl-winning team in CFB.
Offense: SolidDefense: SolidDefensive shape: Bend-don't-break
Open questions
The story
Program ledger
The program ledger
since 2025- 2025Hired Charles Kelly
Roster
Roster Reload - Jacksonville State
2026 snapshot - 2026-09-22Returning Production50%Moderate continuity
Talent Composite#93 nationally247 composite 602.8
Portal Additions21Primary repair: IOL
Portal Losses14Primary pressure: DL
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#86Depth class
WRin 3 - Ronnel Johnsonout 0Need Filled
current room: 197 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Possession Receiver2025 profilemoves the chains on third down
Full roster (132 players)
CBJQ Brooks, Jaheim Jenkins, Javan Allison, Jonavan Carr, Keiyon Turner, Malik Henderson, Micah McCarroll, RJ Rainer, Rodarion Jones, Temarion Foster, Tim Anthony, Tre'Quon Fegans
DLAndrew Rumph, Christopher Johnson, Jackson Bunn, Jawaun Campbell, Jermaine Waters Jr., Khurtiss Perry, Kyten Davis, Marquis Hood, Marvin Stringfellow, McCade Wright, Nii Addy, Quay Hood, Tae Floyd
LBAidan Thompson, Angel Toombs, Austin Bouck, Brayden Matthews, Cai Mayowa, Devin Pettway, Ian Mitchell, Jacob Cruz, Jameson McCollough, Mac Sanders, Mario Alloway, Mikey Rosa, Morven Joseph, Myles Butler, Peyton Consaul, Shaynadd Whitfield, Tristan Lyles, Walker O'Steen, Walter Reddick
OLAmarii Atchison, Bo Burkes, Britin Witt, Caleb Holmes, Daylan Martin, Hadine Diaby, J.R. Jernigan, JT Howell, Jeremiah Orr, Kendarius Blair, Lance Johnson, Lucas Mrachkovskiy, Markevian Blake, Max Shiver, Nate Smith, Oliver Maldonado, Ryan Walker, Ryland Bragg, Shaun Martin, Storm Fain, Vern Faulk, Will Cooper, William Hathcock
RBAndrew Paul, Jacob Cornejo, Jalen Likely, Jamarious Acklin, Justus Savage, Khristian Lando, Landon Watkins, Lucas Farrington, Maurice Winston
SAvion Willis, Brennan Core, Brice McKenzie, Caleb Nix, Jay Stone, Kaden Cook, Keith Christein, Marc Woods, Riggs Dunn, Robert Billings, Shondell Harris, Ty Sims
Offseason moves
The Offseason Ledger · Jacksonville State
1 verified update · portal · recruiting · staff · news- News
Jacksonville State releases first depth chart
Kelly's staff dropped the first depth chart of 2026 and the DL battle is the one to watch — coordinator change plus a class ranked 86th nationally means those depth spots are genuinely open, not ceremonial.
Who's moved
Transfer portal snapshot
+10.3 net portal points
(raw ledger: +14.1 — unweighted, no position adjustment)CB+10.5
need filled
WR+10.4
need filled
IOL+8.8
need filled
DL-6.0
RB-3.7
low confidence
S-3.5
LB-3.3
low confidence
EDGE+1.0
low confidence
LS-1.0
low confidence
OT+0.9
Top commits
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★☆☆
Tristan Lyles
#1308 national
★★★☆☆
Brayden Matthews
#1336 national
Profiles like a typical incoming linebacker — 15 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Balanced Linebacker archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Noah Lee
#1523 national
Profiles like a typical incoming quarterback — 18 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Pocket Passer archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
Where they're from
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
30
AL · 13FL · 10GA · 5MD · 1OH · 1
AL leads the 2026 class with 13 commits. National footprint reaching 5 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
90 signees across 10 states, 2023-2026. AL leads the pull.
Miles from home
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Jacksonville State player grew up 171 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
14th-closest to home in FBS
of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%74–306 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi37%46 of 123 players
Farthest1,496 miKeiyon Turner · Mesa, AZ
Closest1 miNate Smith · Jacksonville, AL
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to AmFirst Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 123 of 132 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Recruiting buzz
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] Jacksonville State Defeats WKU 37-34
[Postgame Thread] FIU Defeats Jacksonville State 27-21
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans vs. market
Fan vs. market↓
23rd
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
6.5
Vegas O/U wins
(41st among FBS)
(41st among FBS)
Market 18pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 1 book
Turnover luck
Fumble luck
Recovering 62% of their own fumbles — running hot vs. the ~52% league rate.
5 of 8 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Takeaway conversion
Converting 29% of pass disruptions into takeaways — well above the ~19% league rate.
4 interceptions of 14 disrupted passes (10 deflected, 4 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
Penalty battle
Winning the penalty battle: 26 penalties committed vs. 34 drawn on opponents, a 48-yard edge.
225 penalty yards committed vs. 273 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
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