Jacksonville State beats Georgia Southern 31-27

Team pages: Georgia Southern · Jacksonville State

Georgia Southern1-227
Jacksonville State2-231Final
Sat, Sep 19 · AmFirst Stadium, Jacksonville, Ala. · Crowd 16,142ESPN+

Jacksonville State beat Georgia Southern 31-27.

We had Jacksonville State favored. It won.

Next: Georgia Southern lost to Houston 42-28, Sat Sep 26

Next: Jacksonville State beat Middle Tennessee 23-13, Sat Sep 26

How it swung

The turning point: Nix 75-yd punt return TD, Jacksonville State goes ahead 31-27 (Q4, 8:16). Jacksonville State went from 39% to 73% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Jacksonville State a 70% chance, and the closing betting line (Jacksonville State was a 3.5-point favorite) put it at 61%.

Jacksonville State came back from 17 down, at one point just an 11% chance in the third quarter.

Georgia Southern led by 17, was as high as 89% in the third quarter, and still lost.

Punt return TDJacksonville State · Q4 8:16
FinalJacksonville State 31-27 Georgia SouthernJacksonville State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q416% at halfLowest 11%Won31-2712+34+21Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q416% at halfLowest 11%Won31-2712Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q484% at halfHigh 89%Lost27-3112−34−21Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q484% at halfHigh 89%Lost27-3112Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 8:16Special teamsNix 75-yd punt return TD, Jacksonville State goes ahead 31-27Jacksonville State 39% → 73% (+34)
  2. 2Q4 1:52InterceptionM.Johnson pass intercepted by T.Lyles at Jax St15 QB hurried by W.O'Steen T.Lyles return 0…Jacksonville State 65% → 86% (+21)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 8:16Special teamsNix 75-yd punt return TD, Jacksonville State goes ahead 31-27Georgia Southern 61% → 27% (−34)
  2. 2Q4 1:52InterceptionM.Johnson pass intercepted by T.Lyles at Jax St15 QB hurried by W.O'Steen T.Lyles return 0…Georgia Southern 35% → 14% (−21)
Jacksonville State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Jacksonville State -3.5), at 59% for Jacksonville State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Jacksonville State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q2, 12:30Bryan 10-yd TD runGeorgia Southern leads 10-0Q2, 12:30 · Jacksonville State 0, Georgia Southern 10▼14%Jacksonville State’s chance to win, 44% to 30%▼14%Jacksonville State’s chance to win, 44% to 30%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  2. Q2, 12:16Williams 2-yd runfumblesQ2, 12:16 · Jacksonville State 0, Georgia Southern 10▼6%Jacksonville State’s chance to win, 30% to 24%▼6%Jacksonville State’s chance to win, 30% to 24%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  3. Q2, 7:09Creel 13-yd TD pass to Likelycuts it to 17-7Q2, 7:09 · Jacksonville State 7, Georgia Southern 17▼3%Jacksonville State’s chance to win, 21% to 18%▼3%Jacksonville State’s chance to win, 21% to 18%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  4. Q2, 0:32Bryan 2-yd TD runGeorgia Southern leads 24-10Q2, 0:32 · Jacksonville State 10, Georgia Southern 24▼10%Jacksonville State’s chance to win, 24% to 14%▼10%Jacksonville State’s chance to win, 24% to 14%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  5. Q3, 7:45Creel 18-yd TD pass to Johnsoncuts it to 24-17Q3, 7:45 · Jacksonville State 17, Georgia Southern 24▲12%Jacksonville State’s chance to win, 16% to 28%▲12%Jacksonville State’s chance to win, 16% to 28%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  6. Q4, 11:17Farrington 26-yd TD runcuts it to 27-24Q4, 11:17 · Jacksonville State 24, Georgia Southern 27▲18%Jacksonville State’s chance to win, 20% to 38%▲18%Jacksonville State’s chance to win, 20% to 38%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference

Every drive

Jacksonville State scored on 4 of its 10 drives; Georgia Southern on 5 of its 10.

Jacksonville State’s drives are teal, Georgia Southern’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Georgia Southern: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 4Field goalJacksonville State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68PuntGeorgia Southern: Punt, from 80 yards out to 49PuntJacksonville State: Punt, from 97 yards out to 92PuntQ2Georgia Southern: Touchdown, from 50 yards out to 0TouchdownJacksonville State: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 73FumbleGeorgia Southern: Touchdown, from 22 yards out to 0TouchdownJacksonville State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownGeorgia Southern: Punt, from 61 yards out to 54PuntJacksonville State: Field goal, from 92 yards out to 17Field goalGeorgia Southern: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownJacksonville State: End of half, from 75 yards out to 63End of halfQ3Jacksonville State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownGeorgia Southern: Field goal, from 86 yards out to 25Field goalJacksonville State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 80PuntQ4Georgia Southern: Punt, from 93 yards out to 94PuntJacksonville State: Touchdown, from 53 yards out to 0TouchdownGeorgia Southern: Punt returned for a touchdown, from 75 yards out to 62Punt TDGeorgia Southern: Interception, from 75 yards out to 13InterceptionJacksonville State: End of game, from 85 yards out to 77End of game

From Georgia Southern’s side

Georgia Southern’s best moment: Bryan 10-yd TD run, Georgia Southern leads 10-0 (Q2 12:30). It lifted Georgia Southern’s win chance by 14 points.

The winner fell to 9%.

What it cost

Georgia Southern’s chance to make the playoff fell from 1% to 0%.

Make the playoff

Georgia Southern · lost1% → ▼0%
Jacksonville State · won1% → ▼0%

Win the conference

Georgia Southern · lost5% → ▼0%5%▼ 0%
Jacksonville State · won26% → ▼0%26%▼ 0%

Before the game (September 18, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Jacksonville State 31, Georgia Southern 27

Jacksonville State covered −3.5 by 0.5. The total, 58, went over 51.5.

Georgia SouthernJacksonville StateTotal yardsGeorgia Southern 369Jacksonville State 302369302Passing yardsGeorgia Southern 187Jacksonville State 194187194Rushing yardsGeorgia Southern 182Jacksonville State 108182108First downsGeorgia Southern 22Jacksonville State 172217TurnoversGeorgia Southern 1Jacksonville State 111Time of possessionGeorgia Southern 36:23Jacksonville State 23:3736:2323:37
Team totalsGeorgia SouthernJacksonville State
Total yards369302
Passing23 of 33, 187 yds17 of 24, 194 yds
Rushing39 for 182 yds25 for 108 yds
First downs2217
Third down10 of 174 of 11
Fourth down0 of 03 of 3
Turnovers11
Penalties7 for 59 yds8 for 60 yds
Time of possession36:2323:37

Georgia Southern leaders

  • Passing Max Johnson 23 of 33, 187 yds, 1 INT
  • Rushing David Mbadinga 18 for 103 yds; Jamarian Samuel 4 for 34 yds
  • Receiving Josh Dallas 7 for 43 yds; David Mbadinga 5 for 40 yds

Jacksonville State leaders

  • Passing Caden Creel 17 of 24, 194 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Lucas Farrington 4 for 44 yds, 1 TD; Caden Creel 10 for 38 yds
  • Receiving Deondre Johnson 3 for 61 yds, 1 TD; Darius Cannon 5 for 54 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

Georgia Southern · 1-1

Rated 99th in our preseason ratings, 85th now, up 14 spots.

1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 7-22 @ ClemsonTop 25 #19 of 668

lost by 15 as a 20.5-point underdog

Georgia Southern lost 7-22 at Clemson. Chance to win started at 6%, low under 1%, high 8%.

W 31-0 vs Charleston Southern #219 of 668

won by 31 as a 28.5-point favorite

Last three games

Jacksonville State · 1-2

Rated 66th in our preseason ratings, 63rd now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 27-29 @ Ohio #54 of 668

lost by 2 as a 1.5-point underdog

W 49-7 vs Eastern Kentucky #169 of 668

won by 42 as a 22.5-point favorite

Jacksonville State won 49-7 vs Eastern Kentucky. Chance to win started at 96%, low 94%, high better than 99%.

L 7-33 @ North Dakota State #80 of 668

lost by 26 as a 6.5-point underdog

Jacksonville State lost 7-33 at North Dakota State. Chance to win started at 26%, low under 1%, high 28%.

Week by week

Jacksonville State

Wk 1: L 7-33 at North Dakota State▼26North Dakota St.Wk 1: W 49-7 vs Eastern Kentucky▲42Eastern KentuckyWk 2: L 27-29 at Ohio▼2Ohio
  • Wk 1Lat North Dakota State7-33
  • Wk 1Wvs Eastern Kentucky49-7
  • Wk 2Lat Ohio27-29

Georgia Southern

Wk 1: W 31-0 vs Charleston Southern▲31Charleston SouthernWk 2: L 7-22 at Clemson▼15Clemson
  • Wk 1Wvs Charleston Southern31-0
  • Wk 2Lat Clemson7-22

Power rating by week

Jacksonville State is rated 2.4 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

2-1-3Wk 0Wk 1Wk 2Jacksonville StateGeorgia Southern

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Jacksonville State’s passing EPA against Georgia Southern, 50 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Jacksonville State’s passing EPA against Georgia Southern’s defense

    50 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Jacksonville State offense, 72nd percentile · Georgia Southern defense, 22nd

  2. Georgia Southern’s explosive plays against Jacksonville State’s defense

    43 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Georgia Southern offense, 43rd percentile · Jacksonville State defense, 86th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Georgia SouthernJacksonville State
EPA/play, offense
Georgia Southern · 49Jacksonville State · 61
EPA/play, defense
Georgia Southern · 58Jacksonville State · 44
Success rate, offense
Georgia Southern · 50Jacksonville State · 73
Success rate, defense
Georgia Southern · 66Jacksonville State · 37
Explosive-play rate, offense
Georgia Southern · 43Jacksonville State · 35
Explosive-play rate, defense
Georgia Southern · 71Jacksonville Sta…
Rush EPA, offense
Georgia Southern · 29Jacksonville State · 47
Rush EPA, defense
Georgia Southern · 79Jacksonville State · 30
Pass EPA, offense
Georgia Southern · 60Jacksonville State · 72
Pass EPA, defense
Georgia Southern · 22Jacksonville State · 63

The series

Georgia Southern leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 2025 · Georgia Southern won the last meeting

  • 2025Georgia Southern 41-34Jacksonville State lost 34-41 at Georgia Southern. Chance to win started at 29%, low 3%, high 53%.

Each line is Jacksonville State’s chance to win through that meeting. Jacksonville State is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Jacksonville State fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (23rd among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

  • Model · 70%
  • Line · 61%
  • Jacksonville State fans · 23rd
  • Georgia Southern fans · 0th

Jacksonville State favored by 3.5 · Total 51.5

How games like this usually go

Jacksonville State by 3.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Jacksonville State.

opened −2.5now −3.5

The total fell 2 points.

opened 53.5now 51.5

Spread: −2.5 → −3.5 · Total: 53.5 → 51.5

The books’ cut: 4.5%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Jacksonville State is worth +7.7 points (±5.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 97th percentile.

86% at home, 41% on the road against FBS opponents (18-3 home, 11-16 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.4 at home vs. away over 54 games — inside the ±7.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 250 miles to get here.

Where next