Georgia Southern7-63Clay Helton begins his fifth season at Georgia Southern with a 7-6 record, but the fanbase remains uneasy as the program seeks to redefine its identity beyond its historic FCS legacy.
Georgia Southern won six national titles running the option through everybody, and Statesboro still carries the chip of a program told all of it stopped counting the day it joined the big league.
Statesboro is two hours from Athens and a world away from the recruiting machine that never once scheduled them; Eagles fans wear the snub like a letterman jacket and would trade a season to take Geor…
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · vs Charleston Southern · Sat Sep 5 · 23:00 UTC
Georgia Southern is the Sun Belt program whose 1985-2000 6 FCS national championships dynasty + 2014 FBS reclassification + 2014 Sun Belt championship in first FBS season define what historic-Statesboro-football looks like.
The team enters with high continuity and a balanced portal churn, but key positions like WR and EDGE remain vulnerable.
Gus the Eagle is patient.
the open questiondo the new coordinators fit the roster?
Clay Helton begins his fourth season at Georgia Southern with a 7-6 record, but the program's historic identity and current tier status create tension over whether this is a foundation or a fleeting moment.
Georgia Southern dropped 27 spots in SP+ — the 7-6 record and top-quintile returning production contrast with the 2025 ranking, raising questions about Clay Helton’s ability to sustain momentum in the Sun Belt.
Marcus Sanders Jr. is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
Camden Brown: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
Dalen Cobb is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Marcus Sanders Jr. is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Clay Helton begins his fifth season at Georgia Southern with a 7-6 record, but the fanbase remains uneasy as the program seeks to redefine its identity beyond its historic FCS legacy.
Georgia Southern dropped 27 spots in SP+ — Clay Helton's 4th season opens with a 7-6 record but faces the steepest analytic collapse in the Sun Belt.
Top 3 commits
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
62nd percentile among FBS programs
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Georgia Southern · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Georgia Southern: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 28 of 112 board posts (25%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Georgia Southern enters 2026 rated No. 103 in 2025 SP+ (-9.4), down 27 spots from 2024. It is top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back. SP+ reflects three years of tape; a drop this steep is structural, not noise. The recovery window is open but the room knows it. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 28 of 112 board posts (25%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Four of five. The board favors this trend.
Opens Sep 5
vs Charleston Southern · at home
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
GA leads the 2026 class with 13 commits. National footprint reaching 4 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
89 signees across 10 states, 2023-2026. GA leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
5 games with TV coverage: 3 ESPN, 2 cable
Kickoff windows: 1 afternoon, 4 primetime
The bounces have gone their way on their own fumbles: 70% recovered, vs. ~51% expected.
7 of 10 own fumbles recovered themselves; 6 of 18 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
Cashing in at a normal clip: 16% of disrupted passes intercepted, close to ~19% league-wide.
7 interceptions of 44 disrupted passes (37 deflected, 7 intercepted), 2025 only.
The flags have favored them: 88 penalties drawn on opponents vs. 69 committed, 79 yards to the good.
655 penalty yards committed vs. 734 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
What little we hear
Only 3 cohort(s) cleared the signal floor this week, so we won’t stage a split we can’t back. Here’s the honest read:
How Georgia Southern fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
~ our readGeorgia Southern fans are leaning negative, with almost nothing concrete behind it yet.
✓ counted We read 61 posts from Georgia Southern fans this week.
“Let’s all take a moment to pour one out for our homie Freedom. First game in a long time without are eagle buddy. Hope you are flying high in the clouds!”— r/CFB
“Not a single INT or fumble. You really have to question Sayin's commitment to the game.”— r/CFB
“> I still think we might lose to Georgia Southern. My brother in hate….you won’t. It’s not even going to be a situation of us giving it everything we have in Boone despite the terrible season because we don’t have anything to give.”— r/CFB
“And the pain is that it’s the end of the season where we lose it. I’d have rather gone 0-2 and then gone on the win streak…”— r/CFB
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Fanbase Health Index · Georgia Southern · high confidence
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.21 EPA/play | 12 | 13 | 249 / 390 | 63.8 | 2924 #42 FBS | 7.5 | 20 #42 FBS | 8 | 139.6 | 53 | 6.8 | 6.5 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. The most common profile in its group this season — 97 of 183 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · junior View JC French's full player page | |||||||||||||
| 14 | 3 | 14 / 26 | 53.8 | 74 | 2.8 | 1 | 0 | 90.4 | 32.8 | — | — | ||
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed Merchant · +0.28 EPA/play | 22 | 12 | 144 | 1037 #36 FBS | 7.2 | 5 | 62 | 12.2 | 12.3 | 10.8 | 16.5 | 6.4% (22/346) | |
Yards by week → Speed MerchantCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 48 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry7.3 97th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception10.1 77th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 95th percentile among FBS RBs, up from the 48th | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · -0.06 EPA/play | 6 | 7 | 49 | 196 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 7.5 | 8.1 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry3.7 bottom 9th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception3.6 bottom 11th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View David Mbadinga's full player page | |||||||||||||
| -0.06 EPA/play | 35 | 7 | 26 | 102 | 3.9 | 0 | 19 | 7.7 | 10.9 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.98 EPA/play | 4 | 13 | 65 | 1079 #11 FBS | 16.6 | 14 #2 FBS | 73 | 9 | 10 | 24.3% (84/346) | |
Yards by week → Deep ThreatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception16.6 82th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate21.5% 98th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.87 EPA/play | 5 | 13 | 50 | 797 #70 FBS | 15.9 | 5 | 52 | 9 | 9.2 | 17.9% (62/346) | |
Yards by week → Deep Threat· Money-downStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. lives on the sticks and moves the chains Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception16.5 81th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.9 94th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score moved from the 3rd to 89th percentile among FBS WRs | |||||||||||
| Slot Technician · +0.26 EPA/play | 1 | 12 | 57 | 506 | 8.9 | 3 | 43 | 14.2 | 15.1 | 22.8% (79/346) | |
Yards by week → Slot Technician· Return threatRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. a house-call threat every time he fields it All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume57 89th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Yards / reception8.8 bottom 13th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Dalen Cobb's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.30 EPA/play | 7 | 9 | 16 | 166 | 10.4 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 1.7 | 5.2% (18/346) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception6.7 bottom 12th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ahmon Green's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.17 EPA/play | 15 | 12 | 16 | 131 | 8.2 | 1 | 22 | 5.4 | 6 | 6.1% (21/346) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception8.2 bottom 7th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.2 bottom 12th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Taylor Bradshaw's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.06 EPA/play | 19 | 2 | 8 | 68 | 8.5 | 0 | 17 | 11.5 | 8.5 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.99 EPA/play | 13 | 4 | 6 | 59 | 9.8 | 1 | 16 | 3.9 | 3.7 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 7 | 11 | 48 | 22 | 6.5 | 0 | 4 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate13.5% bottom 46th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 30th percentile to the 63rd among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 91 | 11 | 34 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate17.6% 62th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Davion Rhodes's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 18 | 13 | 33 | 25 | 15.5 #15 FBS | 6.5 #55 FBS | 6 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate47.0% 100th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score went from the 39th percentile among FBS IDLs to the 95th | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 93 | 12 | 27 | 14 | 3.5 | 2 | 2 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · sophomore our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 32nd to 65th percentile among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 99 | 9 | 20 | 7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight360 lb 100th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Devan Lowe's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 98 | 8 | 15 | 6 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate3.3% bottom 12th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Uche Iloh's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 94 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight310 lb 83th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Elijah Fears's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 51 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 4 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate25.0% 86th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Kebba Secka's full player page | |||||||
| 57 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 97 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 95 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 2 | 13 | 85 | 55 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 91th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume85 89th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 32nd percentile among FBS LBs to the 66th | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 1 | 13 | 84 | 46 | 38 | 2.5 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · junior View Brandon Tyson's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 30 | 8 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 88th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume16 bottom 11th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View CJ Allen Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||
| 15 | 5 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 9 | 13 | 90 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume90 99th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jusfin Meyers's full player page | |||||||
| Rover | 5 | 13 | 74 | 3 | 3 #56 FBS | 3.5 | 0 |
RoverHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate4.1% bottom 30th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score went from the 22nd percentile among FBS Ss to the 88th | |||||||
| Box Safety | 23 | 12 | 45 | 3 | 2 | 6.5 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume45 55th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 27th percentile to the 65th among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 12 | 12 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 3.5 | 0.5 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · junior our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 19 | 9 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate3.7% bottom 28th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Fabo Chaney's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 29 | 10 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 14th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Devin Collier's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 31 | 4 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate12.5% 73th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Chance Gamble's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 14 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 5 of 21 games this season · senior View Prince Green III's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 20 | 9 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate18.8% 93th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jaquari Brown's full player page | |||||||
| 26 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 17 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 28 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 32 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 24 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 16 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Automatic | 95 | 12 | 13/15 | 86.7 | 41/41 | 80 | 46 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 25 | 12 | 56 | 2397 | 42.8 | 55 | 14 | 3 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.26 EPA/play | 1 | 12 | 19 | 502 | 26.4 | 1 | 95 |
| 24 | 9 | 7 | 136 | 19.4 | 0 | 32 | |
| +0.24 EPA/play | 16 | 3 | 5 | 85 | 17 | 0 | 20 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 9 | 9 | 70 | 7.8 | 0 | 22 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+17 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 31 | #70 | #82 | +2 | @Fresno State | L 14–42 120 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #73 | #45 | +28.5 | @USC | L 20–59 141 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #75 | #55 | -3.5 | Jacksonville State | W 41–34 133 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #76 | #186 | -23.5 | Maine | W 45–17 75 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #83 | #39 | +16.5 | @James Madison | L 10–35 121 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| 7 | Oct 10 | #97 | #138 | +3 | Southern Miss | L 35–38 153 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #109 | #170 | -6.5 | Georgia State | W 41–24 141 | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #114 | #147 | -1 | @Arkansas State | L 24–34 151 | 3-5 | 1-3 |
| 11 | Nov 7 | #121 | #131 | +5 | @App State | W 25–23 149 | 4-5 | 2-3 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #115 | #129 | -3.5 | Coastal Carolina | W 45–40 149 | 5-5 | 3-3 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #114 | #34 | +10.5 | Old Dominion | L 10–45 141 | 5-6 | 3-4 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #145 | #78 | +10.5 | @Marshall | W 24–19 138 | 6-6 | 4-4 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 18 | Dec 29 | #118 | #152 | -10 | App State (N) | W 29–10 | 7-6 | 5-4 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29 | App State | W 29–10 | — | — | — | +0.222 | 51.5% | 102.5% | Best defensive stand |
| Nov 29 | @Marshall | W 24–19 | 528 | 1 | 41:38 | +0.161 | 46.1% | 120.8% | One-score win |
| Nov 22 | Old Dominion | L 10–45 | 249 | 1 | 25:25 | +0.022 | 33.9% | 100.3% | Blowout loss |
| Nov 15 | Coastal Carolina | W 45–40 | 653 | 2 | 31:18 | +0.340 | 48.1% | 145.2% | One-score win |
| Nov 7 | @App State | W 25–23 | 494 | 0 | 32:20 | +0.349 | 49.3% | 122.0% | One-score win |
| Oct 25 | @Arkansas State | L 24–34 | 336 | 0 | 31:43 | +0.058 | 37.7% | 129.0% | |
| Oct 18 | Georgia State | W 41–24 | 420 | 0 | 27:40 | +0.326 | 49.3% | 123.6% | |
| Oct 10 | Southern Miss | L 35–38 | 395 | 3 | 29:03 | +0.165 | 39.5% | 147.2% | Most explosive |
| Sep 27 | @James Madison | L 10–35 | 197 | 0 | 24:10 | -0.043 | 28.0% | 131.0% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 20 | Maine | W 45–17 | 516 | 2 | 28:30 | +0.269 | 55.8% | 109.9% | Best success rate |
| Sep 13 | Jacksonville State | W 41–34 | 410 | 1 | 29:30 | +0.389 | 54.5% | 118.4% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 6 | @USC | L 20–59 | 377 | 1 | 29:48 | +0.068 | 36.8% | 128.0% | Defense's roughest night |
| Aug 31 | @Fresno State | L 14–42 | 242 | 1 | 21:59 | +0.196 | 33.3% | 123.4% | Blowout loss |
| Season average (13 games) | 401 | 1.0 | +0.194 | 43.4% | 123.2% | ||||
Georgia Southern fields a strong offense behind a porous defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
73rd percentile quality, 21st percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 66th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 71st — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
64th percentile success on standard downs, 84th on passing downs — a 20-point gap between the two.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 61st percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 86th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.19; 80th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.06. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.20 raw vs. 0.03 adjusted.
Georgia Southern reads strongest in rushing epa (top 32%) and epa / play (top 35%); the crux lives in rushing epa allowed, where Georgia Southern sits at the 3rd percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · Georgia Southern
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Georgia Southern · 2018-present
71% home win rate vs 36% on the road. margin runs +17.3 better at home. Allen E. Paulson Stadium seats 25,000, averaging 85% full (21,231 attendance, 23 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
OJ Arnold and David Mbadinga split the carries (140/188 vs 48/188) -- but the job isn't split the same way. OJ Arnold gets the clock-killing work.
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Dalen Cobb (WR) and Ahmon Green (TE) split the targets (76/94 vs 18/94) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Dalen Cobb is the one trusted on 3rd down.
3rd-down target share, week by week (weeks both players actually played the role)
What changed
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved down 12 points. The rest held closer to steady.
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved down 8 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Season by season
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, Georgia Southern’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (66.4% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 169-play sample) — mid-pack, 78 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
72°F average kickoff temp; 9% of games had measurable precipitation; 5 mph average wind.
Based on 69 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
Georgia Southern's 2014–2025 record is 79-72. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 1936 · 37 seasons · .543 win rate
Georgia Southern won six national championships running the triple-option through everybody. The FBS world calls it a different level. Statesboro has been filing the objection for over a decade.
Erk Russell showed up in 1981, built a football program from nothing at a school that hadn't played the sport in four decades, and had it winning national championships within four years. The dynasty he started — six titles from 1985 to 2000, the last two under Paul Johnson's perfected flexbone — seeded a coaching tree that carried the triple-option to Navy, Georgia Tech, and across the sport. Adrian Peterson ran it for four All-American seasons. Nobody at the level could stop it. The argument that it 'doesn't count' is the one Statesboro has been arguing against ever since the Eagles moved up.
The transition to FBS was bumpy — a 2014 Sun Belt title in the first season up, then a rocky stretch through the late 2010s and early 2020s that gave the doubters ammunition. Clay Helton steadied it. His fourth season in 2025 went 7-6, finished with a Birmingham Bowl win, and the scoreline against the opponent — Appalachian State, the blood rival — was 29-10. Georgia Southern extended Helton through 2029, betting on the kind of stability the program had been chasing since it climbed to the big league.
The 2026 question is whether the Eagles can finally win the Sun Belt outright — a title that's eluded them since that dream debut year in 2014. Helton has the program bowling. Statesboro wants the championship that turns the FBS resume from a work in progress into something the dynasty can stand next to.
The option as institutional identity: even in the modern era, Georgia Southern's soul is the downhill, ball-control, flexbone-descended running game that Russell and Johnson perfected. Helton has adapted to contemporary personnel — a spread-influenced system that still prioritizes the run — but the blocking mentality and the ground-game identity are not negotiable. 'GATA' (Get After Their Ass) is the program's creed and its blocking philosophy in the same four letters.
Georgia Southern 2016–2025. Climbing +0.4 rungs across the last 10 seasons. Slope +0.18 rungs / year — moving up the prestige scale.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 7-6
Georgia Southern: 6+ wins, bowl access secured. The baseline of a successful FBS year.
Sun Belt Standing · 2025
Georgia Southern sits 6th of 14 in the Sun Belt at 5-4. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Madison | 8-0 |
| 2 | Old Dominion | 6-2 |
| 3 | Southern Miss | 5-3 |
| 4 | Troy | 5-3 |
| 5 | Coastal Carolina | 5-4 |
| 6 | Georgia Southern | 5-4 |
| 7 | Arkansas State | 4-3 |
| 8 | Louisiana | 4-3 |
| 9 | South Alabama | 3-4 |
| 10 | Louisiana Tech | 2-0 |
| 11 | Marshall | 2-5 |
| 12 | App State | 2-7 |
| 13 | UL Monroe | 1-6 |
| 14 | Georgia State | 0-8 |
Coaching Era · Georgia Southern
Clay Helton has held the program for 5 seasons — the era is established.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 1985
Georgia Southern won 6 FCS national championships (1985, 1986, 1989, 1990, 1999, 2000) — the most FCS championships of any program — under Erk Russell, Paul Johnson, and Mike Sewak. The dynasty + the Triple-Option offensive identity (Paul Johnson era) + the Erk Russell coaching tree make GSU permanent G5 historical canon.
since 1980s
Paul Johnson (1997-2000) ran the Triple-Option offense at GSU producing 2 FCS national championships + multiple records. Johnson took the scheme to Navy + Georgia Tech, where it influenced multiple modern programs. The Triple-Option as living scheme makes GSU + Navy + Air Force the keepers of the tradition.
since 2014
Georgia Southern reclassified from FCS to FBS in 2014 + IMMEDIATELY won the Sun Belt championship in its first FBS season — an unprecedented feat. The 9-3 record + Sun Belt title made GSU one of the more-improbable FBS-newcomer breakthroughs. The 2014 season is permanent program identity.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
1985
A program four years old wins the I-AA championship under Erk Russell
2014
9-3 and a Sun Belt crown in the very first year up — the move-up done right
2025
29-10 over the blood rival to cap a 7-6 bowl season under Helton
Moment of the Year · Georgia Southern · 2025
Week 18 of 2025. Postseason win — the season-defining moment.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2025 — win 10-29 (away). Last 5 postseason: 2-3.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Hired for 2026: Mike Mutz — not yet reflected in on-field data.
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
Georgia Southern · Next-Season Outcome Band
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Fanbase Health Index · Georgia Southern · high confidence
2025 stat leaders
How They Play · 2025
Most Similar Programs · Georgia Southern
Season Standing · 2025 · 7-6
Coaching Era · Georgia Southern
Moment of the Year · Georgia Southern · 2025
Bowl / Postseason Ledger