Home Conferences FBS 2026 season

Sun Belt

New Leader

Texas State holds the Sun Belt's highest SP+ rating entering 2026. Can they build on a 7-6 season into the conference title run that puts the Sun Belt back in the New Year's Six conversation — or does the conference's bottom tier (Georgia State 1-11, UL Monroe 3-9) make any 12-0 Sun Belt champion an argument the committee declines to reward?

Sun Belt is more top-heavy than deep. James Madison gives the league punch, but the middle tier falls away faster than the top leagues.

#9overall

#9in FBS

+3.7RR50

+7.4upper strength

14teams

0top-25 teams

Sun Belt, at a glance.

Top 10 by power rating — last season final records.

Team Power Record RR50

James Madison

0-0 +11.1

Old Dominion

0-0 +7.7

Marshall

0-0 +7.2

Louisiana

0-0 +5.2

Georgia Southern

0-0 +3.3

Troy

0-0 +3.2

Arkansas State

0-0 +1.8

App State

0-0 +1.4

South Alabama

0-0 +1.2

Louisiana Tech

0-0 +1.1

Power snapshot Projected 2026 standing

New Leader

Texas State went 7-6 in 2025 with a recruiting class ranked #101 nationally — a +81 coaching premium that gives the Sun Belt its highest SP+ ranking (#20) and its most compelling overperformer. Meanwhile, Georgia State went 1-11 with a #67 recruiting class — the widest coaching gap in the wrong direction. Appalachian State, the program that defined this conference for a decade, went 5-8. The Sun Belt's era is shifting.

0 top-25 teams.

The depth argument for this conference rests on how many credible opponents are clustered behind the leader. A wide talent spread separates the haves from the have-nots.

The question heading into 2026.

Tools Matchup Simulator Compare Teams Playoff Forecast Style map Head to head Power map

The New Standard

Texas State Holds the Sun Belt's Best SP+ Rating

Texas State's coaching premium is +81 — a #101 recruiting class producing an SP+ ranking of #20 nationally. A program that was in FCS until 2012 now holds the Sun Belt's highest power rating entering 2026. They went 7-6 in 2025, which doesn't fully reflect how competitive they played. If the Sun Belt gets a New Year's Six bid in the next two years, Texas State is the program most likely to make the run.

Why it matters →

The Decline

App State Went 5-8 — and the Belt Is Changing

Appalachian State won six Sun Belt titles and produced Top-25 rankings that the conference had never seen. They went 5-8 in 2025 — their first losing season since joining the Sun Belt. The program isn't broken, but their SP+ rank (#118) entering 2026 is closer to the conference bottom than the conference top. Whether this is a down year or the end of the App State era is the most important question in Sun Belt football.

The Floor

Georgia State Went 1-11 With the 67th Recruiting Class

Georgia State's coaching gap is -58: a #67 recruiting class — one of the better ones in the conference — produced a 1-11 season and the Sun Belt's worst SP+ ranking among programs with meaningful recruiting activity. Coastal Carolina went 6-7 with a #91 class (-24 gap). The Sun Belt's underperformers aren't recruiting badly; they're failing to convert what they bring in. That's a coaching story in the wrong direction.

Why it matters →

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All arcs →

Fan pulse Last 30 days · 296 mentions

18% positive 55% neutral 27% negative

James Madison

↓ negative

Marshall

↓ negative

App State

↑ positive

Georgia Southern

↓ negative

Old Dominion

↓ negative

Southern Miss

↑ positive

Fan confidence — FBS percentile

Where each Sun Belt program stands nationally in fan sentiment (100th = most positive in FBS, 0 = least). Conference median: 80th percentile.

Bullish+12

Bullish+24

Bullish-3

Bullish+9

Bullish-3

Bullish+6

Bullish-6

Bullish-5

Leaning-19

Leaning–

Mixed-35

Mixed-9

Souring-17

Souring+52

The coaching premium

Recruiting class rank vs. SP+ performance — where coaches add or subtract value

Above line = coaching premium

Below line = underperforming

Gap = recruiting rank minus SP+ rank

Positive gap means the coaching staff won more than the recruiting class predicted. Data: Sun Belt teams, 14 programs.

Standings

2026 final — sorted by power rating. Stature tag = interim Zeitgeist calibration (medium confidence).

#	Team	Record	RR50	Resume
1	James Madison National Program III#64	0-0	+11.1	+90.3
2	Old Dominion Regional Program II#92	0-0	+7.7	+80.3
3	Marshall Regional Program I#73	0-0	+7.2	+77.9
4	Louisiana Regional Program I#78	0-0	+5.2	+72.0
5	Georgia Southern Regional Program III#99	0-0	+3.3	+67.8
6	Troy Regional Program I#83	0-0	+3.2	+67.1
7	Arkansas State Regional Program IV#109	0-0	+1.8	+61.6
8	App State National Program III#68	0-0	+1.4	+59.5
9	South Alabama Regional Program III#96	0-0	+1.2	+58.1
10	Louisiana Tech Regional Program IV#111	0-0	+1.1	+57.1
11	Southern Miss Regional Program V#122	0-0	+0.2	+52.9
12	Coastal Carolina Regional Program IV#106	0-0	-0.1	+51.9
13	UL Monroe Regional Program VI#137	0-0	-1.3	+46.0
14	Georgia State Regional Program IV#115	0-0	-1.4	+45.3

Projected Standings · Sun Belt · 2026

Win Projection

Odds of winning at least N conference games from current power ratings — full slate played out, not locked to results. AVG = expected wins; W–L = most-likely record.

#	Team	W–L	PWR	AVG	≥8	≥7	≥6	≥5	≥4	≥3	≥2	≥1
Favorites
1	James Madison	6–2	+8.2	5.5	5	22	51	78	93	99	✓	✓
2	Old Dominion	5–3	+4.8	4.9	2	11	33	62	84	96	99	✓
3	Marshall	5–3	+4.3	4.8	1	9	30	59	83	96	99	✓
Challengers
4	Louisiana	5–3	+2.3	4.8	2	11	33	61	84	95	99	✓
5	Arkansas State	4–4	-1.1	4.1		4	16	40	68	88	97	✓
6	Troy	4–4	+0.3	4.1		3	15	38	67	88	97	✓
7	Georgia Southern	4–4	+0.4	3.9		3	13	34	61	84	96	✓
The Field
8	South Alabama	4–4	-1.7	3.8		2	11	31	58	83	96	99
9	Louisiana Tech	4–4	-1.8	3.7		2	10	29	56	81	95	99
10	App State	4–4	-1.5	3.6		2	9	26	53	79	94	99
11	Southern Miss	3–5	-2.7	3.4		1	6	20	45	73	92	99
Rebuilding
12	UL Monroe	3–5	-4.2	3.3		1	5	19	43	70	90	99
13	Coastal Carolina	3–5	-3.0	3.2		1	4	16	40	69	90	98
14	Georgia State	3–5	-4.3	2.9			3	12	32	61	86	98

How they play

Six advanced-stat dimensions per team, ranked against all 134 FBS programs, 2025 season. Every column reads higher-is-better. Click a column to sort.

ScoringConvertsBig playsDefensePacePass rate

Team	Scoring	Converts	Big plays	Defense	Pace	Pass rate	Identity
James Madison	+0.22	45.0%	+1.30	-0.01	70.2	39.2%	Lockdown defense
Old Dominion	+0.24	45.0%	+1.32	-0.01	67.8	37.4%	Lockdown defense
Marshall	+0.17	43.5%	+1.16	-0.15	69.3	40.3%	No explosive plays
Louisiana	+0.10	37.6%	+1.25	-0.19	65.9	39.9%	Can't sustain drives
Georgia Southern	+0.19	43.4%	+1.23	-0.26	68.6	48.3%	Defense is the problem
Troy	+0.07	37.5%	+1.28	-0.11	66.1	46.8%	Can't sustain drives
Arkansas State	+0.09	41.5%	+1.19	-0.20	73.5	53.1%	Balanced
App State	+0.09	39.9%	+1.25	-0.18	70.6	55.3%	Balanced
South Alabama	+0.16	42.0%	+1.20	-0.23	70.1	36.9%	Defense is the problem
Louisiana Tech	+0.13	40.1%	+1.20	-0.05	65.2	37.0%	Lockdown defense
Southern Miss	+0.17	39.5%	+1.35	-0.12	71.0	49.2%	Balanced
Coastal Carolina	+0.06	36.0%	+1.30	-0.18	66.9	45.9%	Can't sustain drives
UL Monroe	+0.07	36.3%	+1.40	-0.18	60.8	41.4%	Big-play offense
Georgia State	+0.13	40.2%	+1.27	-0.27	70.1	56.5%	Defense is the problem

Identity is the single dimension where a team is most above or below the FBS average (pace, defense, big plays, or converting drives) — "Balanced" means nothing stands out either way. CFBD 2025 advanced stats, excludes garbage time.

Top players

Sun Belt's highest CFB Index Scores, 2025 season.

#	Player	Team	National
1	Donnie SmithEDGE	Troy	#7 of 420
2	Josh MotenCB	Southern Miss	#7 of 364
3	Beau SparksWR	Texas State	#4 of 485
4	Justin EaglinCB	James Madison	#9 of 364
5	Cody SiglerIDL	Arkansas State	#8 of 330
6	Boogie TrotterS	Marshall	#8 of 544
7	Camden BrownWR	Georgia Southern	#9 of 485
8	Demarcus HendricksEDGE	Arkansas State	#15 of 420
9	Jaquez WhiteCB	Troy	#14 of 364
10	Wayne KnightRB	James Madison	#7 of 326

Where Sun Belt stands nationally

Conference strength by RR50 (round-robin adjusted power).

1 SEC SEC

+11.4

2 B10 Big Ten

+10.1

3 IND FBS Independents

+9.4

4 B12 Big 12

+8.3

5 ACC ACC

+8.2

6 P12 Pac-12

+5.3

7 AAC American Athletic

+5.3

8 MW Mountain West

+4.0

9 SB Sun Belt

+3.7

10 CUSA Conference USA

+3.6

Sun Belt title odds

Best available American odds · sportsbook consensus.

#	Team	Odds
1	James Madison	+225
2	Old Dominion	+425
3	Louisiana	+700
4	Troy	+800
5	Marshall	+750
6	Louisiana Tech	+950
7	Arkansas State	+1000
8	South Alabama	+1200
9	Appalachian State	+1300
10	Georgia Southern	+1300