3identity shift
Troy shifts fanbase identity, redefining program.
Gerad Parker enters his second season with an 8-6 record, signaling a shift in Troy's identity as the program seeks to redefine its legacy beyond past Sun Belt successes.
Troy8-6Latest
The Troy faithful are all the way in.
belief warmed ↑ 6.0vs prior week
Fanbase belief
Bullish
70/100 · 38 mentions · top 1% of FBS
~ our readGrounding
running on emotion
4% cite a stat · 6% typical ✓ counted
~ our readVolatility
Chaotic
σ 30 pts
Credible bullish
~ our readThe model
#89
CFB Zeitgeist · -1.8
✓ measured3Hope-Doping·Offseason
Troy is the little Alabama school that walks into Death Valley and beats LSU — a Sun Belt power that expects to win its league, and spent 2025 one step short, falling in the conference title game after a four-win turnaround.
Title DroughtSince 2018 · 7 yrs
Troy's whole self-image is built on one thing: walking into an SEC stadium as a heavy underdog and winning. Fans believe the big Alabama programs and the national media see Troy as a paycheck opponent…
offseason · quiet
Roster Reload - Troy
2026 snapshot - 2026-08-06Returning Production33%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#99 nationally247 composite 561.9
Portal Additions14Primary repair: K
Portal Losses27Primary pressure: IOL
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#76Depth class
WRin 1 - TJ Lottout 5 - Mojo DortchStarter Risk
current room: 183 lbs avg (2025 roster)
IOLin 1 - Luke Petitout 5 - Paul BowlingStarter Risk
current room: 317 lbs avg (2025 roster)
EDGEin 2 - Kavion Hendersonout 3 - DJ Jackson Jr.Downgrade
current room: 259 lbs avg (2025 roster)
CBin 2 - Marcus Goree Jr.out 3 - Jaquez WhiteEven
current room: 183 lbs avg (2025 roster)
RBin 1 - Jaheim Merriweatherout 2 - Tae MeadowsEven
current room: 200 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Sin 1 - Knai Cookout 2 - Rondell CarterDowngrade
current room: 200 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Belief EKG
WinLoss · hover for scorePrior seasons
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · vs Sam Houston · Sat Sep 5 · 23:00 UTC
The experience
Troy is the Sun Belt program whose 2017 11-2 + Dollar General Bowl championship + 2022 12-2 New Mexico Bowl championship define what Alabama-Sun-Belt-football looks like.
Offense: PoorDefense: Strong
Troy's 2026 Season Projected to Be a High-Volatility, Mid-Season Reload
Troy faces a high-volatility season with significant roster turnover and a heavy reliance on transfers, but its 7-6 base projection suggests a competitive bowl campaign.
- Roster reloadTroy's roster features a 33% returning player percentage and a net portal exporter status with 14 transfers in and 27 out, indicating a mid-season reload.
- ScheduleTroy's base projection is 7-6 with a bowl game, reflecting moderate confidence in its ability to compete despite roster instability.
Data as of 2026-08-03
·
Validated against program evidence
T-Roy the Trojan is patient.
Troy · the story right now
10 storylines developing
What Troy's identity shift is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
identitythis cycle~readnew
Gerad Parker enters his second season with an 8-6 record, signaling a shift in Troy's identity as the program seeks to redefine its legacy beyond past Sun Belt successes.
what happenedTroy: the fanbase's identity shifting. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
money downthis cycle✓ factnew
Peyton Higgins is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
narrative tension · our read
underdogthis cycle✓ factnew
Peyton Higgins produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
narrative tension · our read
underdogthis cycle✓ factnew
Rara Thomas produces at a notably higher rate when his team is an underdog than when favored, and his per-target value rises too, not just raw catches.
narrative tension · our read
underdogthis cycle✓ factnew
Tray Taylor produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Ethan Conner is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Peyton Higgins is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
narrative tension · our read
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Troy enters 2025 at No. 87 in SP+, up nine spots under Gerad Parker — a step toward reclaiming its Alabama-Sun-Belt-football identity after an 8-6 season.
what happenedTroy enters 2025 rated No. 87 in SP+ (-4.8), up 9 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Troy enters 2026 — the 8-6 record and 9-spot SP+ jump signal a shift, but the program's identity still hinges on whether it can sustain success beyond its 2017 and 2022 bowl-winning eras.
what happenedTroy enters 2026 rated No. 87 in 2025 SP+ (-4.8), up 9 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
coordinatorsthis cycle✓ factnew
Troy: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
narrative tension · our read
How past storylines here turned out
AnsweredTroy's head-coaching hire held for another season.
Died downTroy's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Died downTroy's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
The story
The Offseason Ledger · Troy
3 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- Portal
EDGE August Salvati transfer commits from San Diego State
EDGE room bled 6 out and only added 4 — with DJ Jackson Jr. gone and starter-risk still flagged, Salvati's MWC tape makes him the most ready body Parker's brought in to close that gap.
- Recruiting
Kaiden James commits to Troy
Parker's IOL depth class gets another piece — #76 nationally isn't glamorous, but James fills the interior pressure point that's been the label on this roster all spring.
- Recruiting
Ricardo Parker commits to Troy
IOL pressure was the label on this class before Parker signed — 'Bam' at interior line depth is Gerad Parker patching a room that needed bodies, not just headlines.
Transfer portal snapshot
-10.3 net portal points
(raw ledger: -40.6 — unweighted, no position adjustment)WR-15.0
starter risk
IOL-7.8
starter risk
RB-3.7
EDGE-3.6
S-3.6
TE-3.5
low confidence
OT+3.1
DL-3.1
K-1.3
CB-1.2
QB-1.0
low confidence
LB+0.0
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★☆☆
Keivay Foster
#833 national
Projects: Hybrid Nickel — 17 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Hybrid Nickel archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Noreel White
#30 national
Profiles like a typical incoming wide receiver — 18 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Dontaye Bush
#1308 national
Profiles like a typical incoming interior lineman — 10 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Two-Gap Base archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
↑
Fan confidence higher than any point since 2020
99th percentile among FBS programs
Fan vs. market↑
99th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
6.5
Vegas O/U wins
(41st among FBS)
(41st among FBS)
Fans 58pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 3 books
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total3 booksO/U 6.5
CFP championship#100 in field+100000
Sun Belt title#4 in market+800
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Troy · Next-Season Outcome Band
Troy · Next-Season Outcome BandFloor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 4-8
Base 7-6
Ceiling 9-4
floor4-8No postseason.
base7-6Bowl game.
ceiling9-4Bowl game.
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
How the room reacted
Following now · Troy · Developing Confidence
Troy: the fanbase's identity shifting.
Troy: the fanbase's identity shifting.
bullish — but with real dissent
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics1 doubt take
Believers3 bull takes
🎪 drama: hot💬 fans: 33% volume
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Gerad Parker enters his second season with an 8-6 record, signaling a shift in Troy's identity as the program seeks to redefine its legacy beyond past Sun Belt successes.
Source of record: Troy: the fanbase's identity shifting.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
🎪The circus“Smith named to Nagurski Watch List; Kilcrease Allstate Good Work” — the saga that won't quit.›
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
“Smith named to Nagurski Watch List; Kilcrease Allstate Good Works Team nominee”
troymessenger.com · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Troy long snapper Colton Walls named to Mannelly Award Watch List”
The Troy Messenger · 2026-08-04 · read ↗
“Trojans open Fall Camp this week”
The Troy Messenger · 2026-08-03 · read ↗
📣Believers3 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
“Jerrell Bellamy Begins Professional Career in Finland”
Troy University Athletics · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Troy Names Adam Godwin Executive Director for Development and Letterwinner Engagement”
Troy University Athletics · 2026-08-04 · read ↗
“Winning Together: The Culture Behind Troy’s Athletic Surge”
Winning Together · Troy University Athletics · 2026-08-03 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“5 questions for Troy football entering preseason camp” — the real counter.›
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
“5 questions for Troy football entering preseason camp”
AL.com · 2026-08-04 · read ↗
💬The boards3 board mentions — too thin to call a stance.›
Only 3 of 9 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
"The NZCFL is looking for coaches! NZCFL is a college football simulation game run on the free website We are a college simulation football league with 120 teams, and Troy is lo"
r/TroyTrojans ~ fan take
"We recently sat down with Josh Boutwell, General Manager, Sports Editor and Troy Athletics Beat Reporter at the Troy Messenger, to preview the 2026 Troy Trojans Football Team. Here"
r/TroyTrojans ~ fan take
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Following now · Troy · Season outlook Confidence
Troy enters the season in the middle of the pack. That's the whole tension.
Troy enters 2025 rated No. 87 in SP+ (-4.8), up 9 spots from 2024. SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. Preview coverage is split — believers and skeptics are reading the same data differently.
bullish — but with real dissent
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics1 doubt take
Believers3 bull takes
🎪 drama: hot💬 fans: 33% volume
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Troy enters 2025 at No. 87 in SP+, up nine spots under Gerad Parker — a step toward reclaiming its Alabama-Sun-Belt-football identity after an 8-6 season.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious read on this rating isn't the number — it's the schedule. A team at this level has 2-3 games where the model says they're overmatched, and those are the games that define the narrative. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule. The boards are already there — one thread raises exactly this.
Source of record: Troy enters 2025 rated No. 87 in SP+ (-4.8), up 9 spots from 2024.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
🎪The circus“Smith named to Nagurski Watch List; Kilcrease Allstate Good Work” — the saga that won't quit.›
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
“Smith named to Nagurski Watch List; Kilcrease Allstate Good Works Team nominee”
troymessenger.com · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Troy long snapper Colton Walls named to Mannelly Award Watch List”
The Troy Messenger · 2026-08-04 · read ↗
“Trojans open Fall Camp this week”
The Troy Messenger · 2026-08-03 · read ↗
📣Believers3 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“Jerrell Bellamy Begins Professional Career in Finland”
Troy University Athletics · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Troy Names Adam Godwin Executive Director for Development and Letterwinner Engagement”
Troy University Athletics · 2026-08-04 · read ↗
“Winning Together: The Culture Behind Troy’s Athletic Surge”
Winning Together · Troy University Athletics · 2026-08-03 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“5 questions for Troy football entering preseason camp” — the real counter.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
“5 questions for Troy football entering preseason camp”
AL.com · 2026-08-04 · read ↗
💬The boards3 board mentions — too thin to call a stance.›
Only 3 of 9 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
"The NZCFL is looking for coaches! NZCFL is a college football simulation game run on the free website We are a college simulation football league with 120 teams, and Troy is lo"
r/TroyTrojans ~ fan take
"We recently sat down with Josh Boutwell, General Manager, Sports Editor and Troy Athletics Beat Reporter at the Troy Messenger, to preview the 2026 Troy Trojans Football Team. Here"
r/TroyTrojans ~ fan take
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Cooling
Two of five. Schedule has caught up.
Streak L2Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 6-4
The forecast
Opens Sep 5
vs Sam Houston · at home
Season line6.5 winsover -155
PoorStrong
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Rival pulse
South Alabama
Hopeful+16
Battle for the Belt
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
36
AL · 12MS · 10GA · 5LA · 4FL · 1KY · 1NJ · 1SC · 1+1 more
AL leads the 2026 class with 12 commits. National footprint reaching 9 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
116 signees across 21 states, 2023-2026. AL leads the pull.
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] Memphis Defeats Troy 28-7
[Postgame Thread] Troy Defeats Buffalo 21-17
[Postgame Thread] Troy Defeats Nicholls 38-20
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
National spotlight
6 games with TV coverage: 3 ESPN, 1 conference network, 2 streaming
Kickoff windows: 1 noon, 1 afternoon, 4 primetime
Fumble luck
Recovering 70% of the fumbles they've forced — running hot vs. the ~49% league rate.
7 of 10 forced fumbles recovered; 8 of 14 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.
Takeaway conversion
Converting 19% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~19% league rate.
10 interceptions of 52 disrupted passes (42 deflected, 10 intercepted), 2025 only.
Penalty battle
Losing the penalty battle: 78 penalties committed vs. 79 drawn on opponents, a 41-yard deficit.
729 penalty yards committed vs. 688 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
The Pulse on Troy
70
Δ +6.0 vs last wk
38
mentions this week · conversation velocity
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Trojans"
— Troy fanbase · recurring line
Fanbase Signals
Cohort Divergence0 pctSpread between sub-fanbase cohorts in the Pulse window.
The Fever Year
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Cr/CFB
GGoogle News
UUnderdog Dynasty
CCampus paper
BBluesky
YYouTube
What little we hear
Only 2 cohort(s) cleared the signal floor this week, so we won’t stage a split we can’t back. Here’s the honest read:
National take+0.33
Millennials+0.32
How Troy fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
Rr/CFBthe room
LSU: *We will not cancel classes on Tuesday for the Natty* Student: but whyyyy ☹️ LSU: *Because we are cancelling classes on Monday AND Tuesday* 😎 LSU & Students: 😎 🤜🏽🤛🏽 😎
▲ 5.1k ▼open ↗
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
72 mentions · 6 sources · week 2026-01. Counts, sources and the divergence rank are measured (fact). Cohort labels and sentiment are a source-weighted model read (our read) — never a quote attributed to a person.
Belief checklight on evidence
~ our readTroy fans are down on the program, but it's more feel than fact right now.
backed by facts
the mood
✓ counted We read 56 posts from Troy fans this week.
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Radio, beat writers & editorial13 posts
News & campus coverage14 posts
CFB analyst takes2 posts
Bluesky · @chrisvannini.com
1w ago
Fanbase Health Index · Troy · high confidence
Fanbase Health Index · Troy · high confidenceGrowing (59)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 8-6 (57% win rate)66
Volume — 191 effective signal-N76
Cohort Engagement — Divergence 0.00 — quiet35
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#92 / 138 · 34th pct23.5
Pts allowed/game#54 / 138 · 62nd pct23.9
Total yards/gm#102 / 136 · 26th pct307.2
Rush yards/gm#120 / 136 · 12th pct98.0
Pass yards/gm#67 / 136 · 51st pct209.2
Yards allowed/gm#112 / 136 · 18th pct372.6
Rush yds allowed/gm#124 / 136 · 10th pct176.1
Sacks#14 / 136 · 90th pct36
Interceptions#62 / 136 · 55th pct10
3rd-down conv#80 / 136 · 42nd pct38.8%
All 98 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team4301307.2/gm4.65/play#102 / 136 · 26th pct#54 / 70 · 24th pct#12 / 14 · 21st pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp5217372.6/gm5.58/play#112 / 136 · 18th pct#65 / 70 · 9th pct#7 / 14 · 57th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Rush yards
Team137298.0/gm1.48/play#120 / 136 · 12th pct#62 / 70 · 13th pct#14 / 14 · 7th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp2466176.1/gm2.64/play#124 / 136 · 10th pct#67 / 70 · 6th pct#11 / 14 · 29th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Rush carries
Team49235.1/gm#44 / 136 · 68th pct#19 / 70 · 74th pct#7 / 14 · 57th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp54538.9/gm#133 / 136 · 3rd pct#69 / 70 · 3rd pct#14 / 14 · 7th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Rush TDs
Team171.2/gm#85 / 136 · 38th pct#49 / 70 · 31st pct#9 / 14 · 43rd pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp221.6/gm#88 / 136 · 36th pct#55 / 70 · 23rd pct#5 / 14 · 71st pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Net pass yards
Team2929209.2/gm3.17/play#67 / 136 · 51st pct#40 / 70 · 44th pct#7 / 14 · 57th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp2751196.5/gm2.94/play#68 / 136 · 51st pct#39 / 70 · 46th pct#5 / 14 · 71st pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Pass attempts
Team43330.9/gm#37 / 136 · 74th pct#20 / 70 · 73rd pct#5 / 14 · 71st pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp39027.9/gm#68 / 136 · 51st pct#33 / 70 · 54th pct#6 / 14 · 64th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Completions
Team25117.9/gm#61 / 136 · 56th pct#33 / 70 · 54th pct#6 / 14 · 64th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp23516.8/gm#61 / 136 · 56th pct#27 / 70 · 63rd pct#6 / 14 · 64th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Pass TDs
Team201.4/gm#57 / 136 · 59th pct#33 / 70 · 54th pct#7 / 14 · 57th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp161.1/gm#40 / 136 · 71st pct#27 / 70 · 63rd pct#3 / 14 · 86th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Passer rating
Team125.4125.4#92 / 136 · 33rd pct#54 / 70 · 24th pct#9 / 14 · 43rd pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp126.9126.9#50 / 136 · 64th pct#30 / 70 · 59th pct#5 / 14 · 71st pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team120.9/gm#29 / 136 · 79th pct#11 / 70 · 86th pct#4 / 14 · 79th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp100.7/gm#70 / 136 · 49th pct#36 / 70 · 50th pct#6 / 14 · 64th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Sacks (def)
Team362.6/gm#14 / 136 · 90th pct#9 / 70 · 89th pct#3 / 14 · 86th pct#7 / 10 · 40th pct
Opp594.2/gm#136 / 136 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#14 / 14 · 7th pct#10 / 10 · 10th pct
Tackles for loss
Team866.1/gm#16 / 136 · 89th pct#11 / 70 · 86th pct#2 / 14 · 93rd pct#7 / 10 · 40th pct
Opp1007.1/gm#133 / 136 · 3rd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#14 / 14 · 7th pct#10 / 10 · 10th pct
First downs
Team24217.3/gm#94 / 136 · 32nd pct#50 / 70 · 30th pct#11 / 14 · 29th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp26218.7/gm#94 / 136 · 32nd pct#54 / 70 · 24th pct#6 / 14 · 64th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
3rd-down conv
Team835.9/gm#16 / 136 · 89th pct#9 / 70 · 89th pct#2 / 14 · 93rd pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp785.6/gm#122 / 136 · 11th pct#65 / 70 · 9th pct#12 / 14 · 21st pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
3rd-down att
Team21415.3/gm#4 / 136 · 98th pct#3 / 70 · 97th pct#1 / 14 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp20414.6/gm#127 / 136 · 7th pct#63 / 70 · 11th pct#14 / 14 · 7th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
4th-down conv
Team171.2/gm#33 / 136 · 76th pct#19 / 70 · 74th pct#3 / 14 · 86th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp141.0/gm#68 / 136 · 51st pct#33 / 70 · 54th pct#12 / 14 · 21st pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
4th-down att
Team362.6/gm#12 / 136 · 92nd pct#4 / 70 · 96th pct#1 / 14 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp312.2/gm#97 / 136 · 29th pct#50 / 70 · 30th pct#14 / 14 · 7th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Time of possession
Team418:5129:55/gm#25 / 136 · 82nd pct#14 / 70 · 81st pct#2 / 14 · 93rd pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp421:0930:05/gm#122 / 136 · 11th pct#61 / 70 · 14th pct#14 / 14 · 7th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Kicking & Punting
Field goals#114 / 135 · 16th pct12/18 (66.7%)
Extra points39/40
Punting#21 / 136 · 85th pct45.7 avg · 68 punts
Turnovers & special teams
Turnovers
Team181.3/gm#43 / 136 · 69th pct#15 / 70 · 80th pct#7 / 14 · 57th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp181.3/gm#79 / 136 · 43rd pct#41 / 70 · 43rd pct#6 / 14 · 64th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Fumbles lost
Team60.4/gm#69 / 136 · 50th pct#28 / 70 · 61st pct#8 / 14 · 50th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp80.6/gm#90 / 136 · 35th pct#52 / 70 · 27th pct#8 / 14 · 50th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
INT return TDs
Team30.2/gm#4 / 135 · 98th pct#3 / 70 · 97th pct#2 / 14 · 93rd pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 136 · 100th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#1 / 14 · 100th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
INT return yards
Team19113.6/gm#29 / 136 · 79th pct#16 / 70 · 79th pct#5 / 14 · 71st pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp1017.2/gm#61 / 136 · 56th pct#35 / 70 · 51st pct#4 / 14 · 79th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Punt ret yds
Team987.0/gm#89 / 136 · 35th pct#54 / 70 · 24th pct#10 / 14 · 36th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp1168.3/gm#74 / 136 · 46th pct#43 / 70 · 40th pct#6 / 14 · 64th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Punt ret TDs
Team00.0/gm#43 / 135 · 69th pct#23 / 70 · 69th pct#4 / 14 · 79th pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#1 / 14 · 100th pct#1 / 9 · 100th pct
Kick ret yds
Team71451.0/gm#7 / 136 · 96th pct#3 / 70 · 97th pct#2 / 14 · 93rd pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp37526.8/gm#63 / 136 · 54th pct#41 / 70 · 43rd pct#6 / 14 · 64th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Kick ret TDs
Team00.0/gm#40 / 136 · 71st pct#17 / 70 · 77th pct#7 / 14 · 57th pct#6 / 9 · 44th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#1 / 14 · 100th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
Penalty yards
Team72952.1/gm#52 / 136 · 62nd pct#26 / 70 · 64th pct#9 / 14 · 43rd pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp68849.1/gm#80 / 136 · 42nd pct#46 / 70 · 36th pct#7 / 14 · 57th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Other
Kick returns#2 / 136 · 99th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#2 / 14 · 93rd pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct352.5/gm
Fourth down go rate#15 / 138 · 90th pct#5 / 70 · 94th pct#2 / 14 · 93rd pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct0.50.0/gm
Fumbles recovered#33 / 136 · 76th pct#17 / 70 · 77th pct#5 / 14 · 71st pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct80.6/gm
Punt returns#44 / 136 · 68th pct#27 / 70 · 63rd pct#7 / 14 · 57th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct191.4/gm
Fumbles rec (def)#46 / 136 · 67th pct#29 / 70 · 60th pct#5 / 14 · 71st pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct60.4/gm
Penalties#61 / 136 · 56th pct#28 / 70 · 61st pct#10 / 14 · 36th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct785.6/gm
Interceptions (def)#62 / 136 · 55th pct#33 / 70 · 54th pct#9 / 14 · 43rd pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct100.7/gm
H2 epa per play opponent#71 / 143 · 51st pct#38 / 70 · 47th pct#6 / 14 · 64th pct0.20.0/gm
Kick ret (opp)#71 / 136 · 49th pct#44 / 70 · 39th pct#7 / 14 · 57th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct211.5/gm
Penalties (opp)#79 / 136 · 43rd pct#47 / 70 · 34th pct#6 / 14 · 64th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct795.6/gm
Recruiting rating#82 / 138 · 41st pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct#5 / 14 · 71st pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct164.711.8/gm
H1 epa per play opponent#86 / 167 · 49th pct#47 / 70 · 34th pct#7 / 14 · 57th pct0.20.0/gm
H2 epa per play#94 / 142 · 35th pct#49 / 70 · 31st pct#9 / 14 · 43rd pct0.10.0/gm
Passes intercepted opponent#97 / 136 · 29th pct#55 / 70 · 23rd pct#9 / 14 · 43rd pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct120.9/gm
Red zone pass rate#97 / 154 · 38th pct#44 / 70 · 39th pct#9 / 14 · 43rd pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct0.30.0/gm
Punt ret (opp)#100 / 136 · 27th pct#59 / 70 · 17th pct#9 / 14 · 43rd pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct191.4/gm
First down pass rate#120 / 215 · 45th pct#43 / 70 · 40th pct#6 / 14 · 64th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct0.40.0/gm
H1 epa per play#132 / 162 · 19th pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct#14 / 14 · 7th pct0.00.0
Situational
3rd-down conversion
Off38.8%#80 / 136 · 42nd pct#47 / 70 · 34th pct#9 / 14 · 43rd pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Def38.2%#58 / 136 · 58th pct#34 / 70 · 53rd pct#4 / 14 · 79th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
4th-down conversion
Off47.2%#100 / 136 · 27th pct#57 / 70 · 20th pct#10 / 14 · 36th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Def45.2%#33 / 136 · 76th pct#16 / 70 · 79th pct#5 / 14 · 71st pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Turnover margin#72 / 136 · 48th pct#40 / 70 · 44th pct#9 / 14 · 43rd pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct+0.00/gm
Sack rate (def)#15 / 136 · 90th pct#9 / 70 · 89th pct#3 / 14 · 86th pct#6 / 10 · 50th pct9.2%
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team382.7/gm#95 / 167 · 44th pct#52 / 70 · 27th pct#10 / 14 · 36th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp443.1/gm#104 / 166 · 38th pct#46 / 70 · 36th pct#5 / 14 · 71st pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Red zone score %
Team76.3%76.3%#97 / 167 · 43rd pct#51 / 70 · 29th pct#7 / 14 · 57th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp75.0%75.0%#53 / 166 · 69th pct#22 / 70 · 70th pct#6 / 14 · 64th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Points / drive
Team1.70.1/gm#104 / 167 · 38th pct#58 / 70 · 19th pct#10 / 14 · 36th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp1.80.1/gm#66 / 166 · 61st pct#37 / 70 · 49th pct#4 / 14 · 79th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Yards / drive
Team33.82.4/gm#133 / 167 · 21st pct#67 / 70 · 6th pct#12 / 14 · 21st pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp40.52.9/gm#75 / 166 · 55th pct#38 / 70 · 47th pct#5 / 14 · 71st pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Plays / drive
Team6.30.4/gm#121 / 167 · 28th pct#61 / 70 · 14th pct#10 / 14 · 36th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp6.30.5/gm#41 / 166 · 76th pct#14 / 70 · 81st pct#4 / 14 · 79th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team13.8%13.8%#87 / 167 · 48th pct#47 / 70 · 34th pct#8 / 14 · 50th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp13.6%13.6%#84 / 166 · 50th pct#44 / 70 · 39th pct#5 / 14 · 71st pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Rush rate over expected#65 / 145 · 56th pct#27 / 70 · 63rd pct#9 / 14 · 43rd pct-0.4%-0.4%
Havoc rate
Team16.8%16.8%#52 / 140 · 64th pct#33 / 70 · 54th pct#6 / 14 · 64th pct
Opp19.9%19.9%#134 / 140 · 5th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#13 / 14 · 14th pct
Standard-downs success
Team43.7%43.7%#122 / 154 · 21st pct#62 / 70 · 13th pct#12 / 14 · 21st pct
Opp46.5%46.5%#60 / 172 · 66th pct#32 / 70 · 56th pct#6 / 14 · 64th pct
Passing-downs success
Team27.6%27.6%#110 / 153 · 29th pct#61 / 70 · 14th pct#10 / 14 · 36th pct
Opp30.0%30.0%#67 / 149 · 56th pct#33 / 70 · 54th pct#7 / 14 · 57th pct
Line yards / carry
Team2.82.8#92 / 143 · 36th pct#47 / 70 · 34th pct#11 / 14 · 29th pct
Opp3.03.0#100 / 155 · 36th pct#52 / 70 · 27th pct#10 / 14 · 36th pct
Stuff rate
Team23.4%23.4%#129 / 143 · 10th pct#66 / 70 · 7th pct#13 / 14 · 14th pct
Opp18.8%18.8%#73 / 155 · 54th pct#41 / 70 · 43rd pct#6 / 14 · 64th pct
Power success rate
Team75.6%75.6%#42 / 137 · 70th pct#22 / 70 · 70th pct#5 / 14 · 71st pct
Opp68.1%68.1%#56 / 141 · 61st pct#27 / 70 · 63rd pct#8 / 14 · 50th pct
Efficiency
Completion %
Off58.0%#111 / 136 · 19th pct#63 / 70 · 11th pct#10 / 14 · 36th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Def60.3%#44 / 136 · 68th pct#21 / 70 · 71st pct#4 / 14 · 79th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Yards / attempt
Off6.8#92 / 136 · 33rd pct#53 / 70 · 26th pct#8 / 14 · 50th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Def7.1#63 / 136 · 54th pct#39 / 70 · 46th pct#5 / 14 · 71st pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Yards / completion
Off11.7#65 / 136 · 53rd pct#37 / 70 · 49th pct#5 / 14 · 71st pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Def11.7#78 / 136 · 43rd pct#51 / 70 · 29th pct#4 / 14 · 79th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Yards / carry#132 / 136 · 4th pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct#14 / 14 · 7th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct2.8
Yards / play#129 / 136 · 6th pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct#14 / 14 · 7th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct4.65
Scoring margin#81 / 136 · 41st pct#51 / 70 · 29th pct#6 / 14 · 64th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct-0.4/gm
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
Quarterbacks
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.15 EPA/play | 10 | 11 | 130 / 222 | 58.6 | 1537 | 6.9 | 9 | 6 | 124.7 | 43.2 | 5.0 | 11.6 | |
Yards by week → ScramblerMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 45 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Rush usage34.3% 87th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Plays like View Tucker Kilcrease's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Pocket Passer · +0.10 EPA/play | 9 | 8 | 115 / 196 | 58.7 | 1327 | 6.8 | 11 | 5 | 129.0 | 44.2 | 5.4 | 10.1 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 97 of 183 classified this way. Played in 8 of 21 games this season · junior View Will Crowder's full player page | |||||||||||||
| -0.16 EPA/play | 15 | 1 | 5 / 10 | 50 | 54 | 5.4 | 0 | 0 | 95.4 | 35.5 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
Running Backs
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · -0.03 EPA/play | 22 | 12 | 159 | 695 | 4.4 | 6 | 47 | 14.9 | 9.5 | 21.4 | 10.1 | 4.1% (15/366) | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. The most common profile in its group this season — 186 of 349 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2022 class View Tae Meadows's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · -0.12 EPA/play | 1 | 13 | 89 | 339 | 3.8 | 2 | 22 | 5.2 | 8.6 | 21.1 | 8.9 | 4.6% (17/366) | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry4.0 bottom 10th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate2.2% bottom 23th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jordan Lovett's full player page | |||||||||||||
Receivers
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.36 EPA/play | 7 | 13 | 39 | 629 | 16.1 | 5 | 75 | 8.4 | 9 | 15.8% (58/366) | |
Yards by week → Deep ThreatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception16.9 84th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Plays like View Rara Thomas's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.87 EPA/play | 8 | 11 | 31 | 513 | 16.5 | 3 | 60 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 11.7% (43/366) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception10.1 bottom 21th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.9 93th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 23rd percentile among FBS WRs to the 62nd | |||||||||||
| Slot Technician · +0.19 EPA/play | 18 | 13 | 46 | 498 | 10.8 | 5 | 48 | 11.9 | 11 | 19.4% (71/366) | |
Yards by week → Slot TechnicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume46 73th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Plays like View DJ Epps's full player page | |||||||||||
| Move TE · +0.35 EPA/play | 14 | 11 | 31 | 397 | 12.8 | 3 | 39 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 12.3% (45/366) | |
Yards by week → Move TELined up out wide as often as inline. Creates mismatches downfield. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 34 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception13.9 79th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Plays like our readTwo-star recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.41 EPA/play | 2 | 14 | 36 | 301 | 8.4 | 1 | 21 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 14.8% (54/366) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 14 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2021 class View Peyton Higgins's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.50 EPA/play | — | 9 | 25 | 259 | 10.4 | 1 | 29 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 9.0% (33/366) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception11.1 bottom 28th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate4.0% bottom 23th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Roman Mothershed's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.58 EPA/play | 5 | 3 | 7 | 63 | 9 | 0 | 19 | 6 | 9.1 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.96 EPA/play | 88 | 7 | 7 | 57 | 8.1 | 1 | 13 | 2.2 | 2.1 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
Defensive Line
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Versatile End | — | 13 | 46 | 17 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 4 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. The most common profile in its group this season — 139 of 200 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · senior our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile our readBreakout: his CFB Index score climbed from the 25th percentile to the 85th among FBS EDGEs | |||||||
| Versatile End | 11 | 14 | 44 | 12 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 2 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. The most common profile in its group this season — 139 of 200 classified this way. Played in 14 of 21 games this season · senior View Elijah Davis's full player page | |||||||
| Finisher | 22 | 14 | 44 | 20 | 13.5 #36 FBS | 11 #9 FBS | 7 |
FinisherTurns pressure into sacks — when he gets there, he finishes. 16 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Pressure-to-sack conversion0.6 81th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Donnie Smith's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 1 | 12 | 36 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight305 lb 78th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBounce-Back: his CFB Index score shows a real arc: 52nd percentile among FBS IDLs, fell to 22nd, now back up to 86th | |||||||
| Versatile End | 15 | 12 | 36 | 12 | 3.5 | 1 | 2 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 139 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate9.7% bottom 18th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Taleeq Robbins's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 99 | 13 | 36 | 11 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 2 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight305 lb 78th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Julian Peterson's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 98 | 10 | 24 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate16.7% 58th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score climbed from the 23rd percentile to the 85th among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 93 | 12 | 23 | 9 | 3 | 0.5 | 2 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight305 lb 78th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 67th percentile among FBS IDLs, up from the 31st | |||||||
| Versatile End | 19 | 11 | 22 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. The most common profile in its group this season — 139 of 200 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · junior View DJ Jackson Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| 69 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | |
Linebackers
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 7 | 14 | 123 | 45 | 78 | 11.5 #62 FBS | 2.5 | 4 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume123 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate2.0% bottom 38th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jordan Stringer's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 2 | 13 | 44 | 14 | 30 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume44 bottom 41th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 16th percentile among FBS LBs to the 43rd | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 4 | 14 | 44 | 20 | 24 | 2.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 14 of 21 games this season · junior · 2-star, 2023 class View TJ Thompson's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 44 | 14 | 42 | 19 | 23 | 2.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate4.8% 78th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate0.0% bottom 23th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Luke Hodge's full player page | |||||||||
| 20 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Defensive Backs
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 3 | 14 | 113 | 5 | 2 | 2.5 | 1 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume113 100th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readSustained Ascent: his CFB Index score shows two real climbs in a row — 22nd to 49th to 97th percentile among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Box Safety | 6 | 13 | 75 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume75 94th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Justin Powe's full player page | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 8 | 14 | 67 | 11 #12 FBS | 3 #56 FBS | 3.5 | 1 |
Perimeter Tackler· Takeaway threatTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 42 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume67 100th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 14 | 14 | 47 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 14 of 21 games this season · senior View David Daniel-Sisavanh's full player page | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 5 | 13 | 45 | 5 | 1 | 3.5 | 0 |
Perimeter TacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 42 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume45 87th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Kaleno Levine's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 29 | 8 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid Nickel· Takeaway threatMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.2% bottom 41th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Joe Lott's full player page | |||||||
| 24 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 18 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
Kicking
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 40 | 14 | 11/16 | 68.8 | 39/40 | 72 | 47 |
| 32 | 2 | 1/2 | 50 | 0/0 | 3 | 53 |
Punting
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Complete | 28 | 14 | 68 | 3107 | 45.7 | 62 | 29 | 4 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
Kick Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.19 EPA/play | 18 | 13 | 24 | 554 | 23.1 | 0 | 79 |
| Possession Receiver · +0.41 EPA/play | 2 | 14 | 8 | 141 | 17.6 | 0 | 26 |
Punt Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.41 EPA/play | 2 | 14 | 17 | 98 | 5.8 | 0 | 32 |
2025 stat leaders
final
2025 stat leaders
1.
Jordan Stringer
LB
123 tot (def)
2.
Devin Lafayette
S
113 tot (def)
3.
Justin Powe
S
75.0 tot (def)
4.
Jaquez White
CB
67.0 tot (def)
5.
Rara Thomas
WR
629 yds (rec)
Roster
2025
29
players carry a qualified CFB Index Score this season.
Donnie Smith
EDGE
#7 of 420
Devin Lafayette
S
#14 of 544
Jaquez White
CB
#14 of 364
Jordan Stringer
LB
#64 of 583
Julian Peterson
IDL
#57 of 330
Jah-Mal Williams
EDGE
#74 of 420
+23 more
Troy · 2025 schedule & results8-6Hard slateAverage opponent win rate 49% · 3 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #88 | #184 | -19.5 | Nicholls | W 38–20 120 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #104 | #4 | +29.5 | @Clemson | L 16–27 118 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #74 | #71 | +4.5 | Memphis | L 7–28 127 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #85 | #72 | +6.5 | @Buffalo | W 21–17 145 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #86 | #111 | +2.5 | South Alabama | W 31–24 137 | 3-2 | 1-0 |
| 7 | Oct 12 | #89 | #64 | +7.5 | @Texas State | W 48–41 147 | 4-2 | 1-0 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #84 | #144 | -5.5 | @UL Monroe | W 37–14 123 | 5-2 | 2-0 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #83 | #100 | -7 | Louisiana | W 35–23 128 | 6-2 | 3-0 |
| 10 | Nov 2 | #80 | #132 | -8 | Arkansas State | L 10–23 130 | 6-3 | 3-1 |
| 12 | Nov 14 | #95 | #54 | +9.5 | @Old Dominion | L 0–33 125 | 6-4 | 3-2 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #131 | #198 | -10.5 | Georgia State | W 31–19 160 | 7-4 | 4-2 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #123 | #125 | +7 | @Southern Miss | W 28–18 139 | 8-4 | 5-2 |
| Conference Championship | ||||||||
| 15 | Dec 6 | #111 | #14 | +22.5 | @James Madison | L 14–31 134 | 8-5 | 5-3 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 16 | Dec 17 | #109 | #99 | +3.5 | Jacksonville State (N) | L 13–17 | 8-6 | 5-3 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17 | Jacksonville State | L 13–17 | — | — | — | -0.131 | 32.3% | 117.7% | Best defensive stand |
| Dec 6 | @James Madison | L 14–31 | 177 | 1 | 29:26 | -0.055 | 27.9% | 162.0% | Most explosive |
| Nov 29 | @Southern Miss | W 28–18 | 428 | 1 | 32:30 | +0.222 | 46.7% | 114.9% | |
| Nov 22 | Georgia State | W 31–19 | 423 | 1 | 30:05 | +0.151 | 37.7% | 137.2% | |
| Nov 14 | @Old Dominion | L 0–33 | 138 | 2 | 29:45 | -0.434 | 25.0% | 67.9% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Nov 2 | Arkansas State | L 10–23 | 187 | 2 | 31:35 | -0.066 | 33.8% | 133.5% | |
| Oct 25 | Louisiana | W 35–23 | 345 | 1 | 30:32 | +0.221 | 42.4% | 144.8% | |
| Oct 18 | @UL Monroe | W 37–14 | 314 | 0 | 26:55 | +0.157 | 40.4% | 143.6% | |
| Oct 12 | @Texas State | W 48–41 | 458 | 0 | 28:59 | +0.324 | 43.7% | 155.1% | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 4 | South Alabama | W 31–24 | 420 | 2 | 29:49 | +0.274 | 45.1% | 124.0% | One-score win |
| Sep 20 | @Buffalo | W 21–17 | 365 | 2 | 32:52 | +0.075 | 39.8% | 121.5% | One-score win |
| Sep 13 | Memphis | L 7–28 | 112 | 1 | 23:05 | -0.151 | 25.5% | 96.3% | |
| Sep 6 | @Clemson | L 16–27 | 301 | 3 | 33:01 | +0.074 | 34.4% | 154.5% | |
| Aug 30 | Nicholls | W 38–20 | 416 | 0 | 30:47 | +0.336 | 50.0% | 119.1% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (14 games) | 314 | 1.2 | +0.071 | 37.5% | 128.0% | ||||
How They Play · 2025
How They Play · 2025Troy fields a struggling offense behind a strong defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Troy actually scores
14th percentile quality, 80th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Troy's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 56th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 76th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Troy hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
18th percentile success on standard downs, 27th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
Troy by half
1st-half offense ranks 19th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 35th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
How much of Troy's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.07; 28th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.00. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.34 raw vs. 0.03 adjusted.
Troy reads strongest in passing epa allowed (top 26%) and success rate allowed (top 34%); the crux lives in rushing epa, where Troy sits at the 9th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
ELITE · 90+STRONG · 70+AVERAGE · 40-70CONCERN · 10-40BOTTOM · <10
Most Similar Programs · Troy
Most Similar Programs · TroyReads Like
ArizonaTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontArizona StateTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontArkansasTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up front
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Troy · 2018-present
Above-Average
67% home win rate vs 51% on the road. margin runs +8.0 better at home. Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) seats 30,000, averaging 83% full (24,947 attendance, 26 games reported).
Home33-16Away25-24
Positional competition · RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Tae Meadows and Jordan Lovett split the carries (160/250 vs 90/250) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Tae MeadowsJordan Lovett
Carries
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
Q4, leading (competitive)
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-carry share
concentration alone -- EPA/carry doesn't corroborate, read with caution
Screened 3 claims, 0 survived, 3 falsified
Positional competition · WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
DJ Epps (WR) and Ethan Conner (TE) split the targets (69/113 vs 44/113) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Ethan Conner produces in bigger chunks.
DJ EppsEthan Conner
Targets
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
3rd-down targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Garbage-time share
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-catch share
concentration and EPA/target agree -- a real boom/bust split
Screened 3 claims, 1 survived, 2 falsified
What changed
Troy’s play-calling, before and after the change
Offense: Joe Craddock (2022–2023) → Sean Reagan (2024–2025)
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved down 9 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
4th-down go rate
Defense: Greg Gasparato (2023) → co-Nathan Burton / Dontae Wright (2024–2025)
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved down 11 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
Season by season
How Troy’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Offense: Sean Reagan (2024–2025)
1st-down pass rate
2024: 43% → 2025: 42% · 1-pt range · #169 of 171 · less than most
Red-zone pass rate
2024: 33% → 2025: 34% · 2-pt range · #170 of 171 · less than most
4th-down go rate
2024: 47% → 2025: 51% · 5-pt range · #164 of 171 · less than most
Defense: co-Nathan Burton / Dontae Wright (2024–2025)
1st-down pass rate
2024: 43% → 2025: 42% · 1-pt range · #190 of 189 · less than most
Red-zone pass rate
2024: 33% → 2025: 34% · 2-pt range · #189 of 189 · less than most
4th-down go rate
2024: 47% → 2025: 51% · 5-pt range · #183 of 188 · less than most
Defensive identity · pass zones
What this defense gives up, by zone.
On short passes, Troy’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (63.2% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 148-play sample) — mid-pack, 22 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
Screened 133 claims, 133 survived · 2025 only, in the 399 games with the detailed play-text feed; n=148 short-zone plays faced, raw rate 60.8%
Historical echo
Troy’s breakout has happened before — and 2 of the 4 closest programs couldn’t hold it.
Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.
Missouri 1940–1945
fell back
San José State 1974–1979
held the gain
Western Michigan 2014–2019
held the gain
Stanford 1990–1995
fell back
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Venue texture
74°F average kickoff temp; 7% of games had measurable precipitation; 6 mph average wind.
Based on 72 home games with weather data.
The CFP Era
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
TRAJECTORY · quality-score line · AP rank dotted · CFP bids marked · coach regimes ribboned
Program Quality
AP Rank (inverted)
CFP Appearance
Troy's 2014–2025 record is 88-64. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
176-145
since 1935 · 34 seasons · .548 win rate
HOME
99-39
AWAY
71-101
NEUTRAL
6-5
1930s
1970s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
The program, in full — read the essay
In 2017, Troy walked into Tiger Stadium and beat LSU. In 2025, Gerad Parker engineered a four-win turnaround, won the Sun Belt West, and then lost the conference title game to James Madison 31-14. The Trojans measure themselves by conference trophies. They are one short.
The LSU win in 2017 is the program's permanent credential — a small south-Alabama school went into one of the loudest stadiums in the country as a heavy underdog and won, the kind of result that defines a program's identity for decades. Troy built that identity into a system: coach Neal Brown left for West Virginia after three straight ten-win seasons, Jon Sumrall won back-to-back Sun Belt titles including a 12-2 season in 2022, and then Sumrall left for Tulane. The pattern is consistent. Troy builds winning coaches and exports them, and the program measures itself by whether the next man can sustain what the previous one built.
Gerad Parker's 2025 season was the evidence the fanbase needed that the machine hadn't stopped. A four-win improvement, a Sun Belt West division title, a legitimate shot at the conference championship — the architecture was there. Then James Madison won the title game 31-14, and a 17-13 bowl loss to Jacksonville State closed a season that felt like a setup rather than a conclusion. Parker enters his third year with the program back near the top of the league and a cleaner path in front of him.
The 2026 Sun Belt race is Troy's to claim or not. The West division title in 2025 proved the program's contender status. The question Parker has to answer is whether this team finishes what last year's didn't — whether the conference trophy, absent since 2022, is coming back to south Alabama. Veterans Memorial Stadium is loud with the expectation.
How they play
Deep-South Sun Belt grit — physical, fearless, recruiting-savvy football built in the Alabama pipeline that both SEC schools and bigger G5 programs often overlook. Troy's identity is toughness-first: a defense that hits, an offense that doesn't ask for more than the roster can execute, and a roster constructed to spring upsets on programs that treat the Trojans as a stepping-stone. The brand of football is earned stubbornness from a small school that has no interest in its budget determining its ceiling.
Steady
Troy 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (-0.08 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 2.
CFP Era · Troy
12 seasons on file
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 8-6
Season Standing · 2025 · 8-6Bowl eligible
Troy: 6+ wins, bowl access secured. The baseline of a successful FBS year.
R0R1R2R3R4R5R6R7R8R9
Sub-FBSBuildingBowlRankedContenderPlayoff
Sun Belt Standing · 2025
4th in the Sun Belt
Troy sits 4th of 14 in the Sun Belt at 5-3. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Madison | 8-0 |
| 2 | Old Dominion | 6-2 |
| 3 | Southern Miss | 5-3 |
| 4 | Troy | 5-3 |
| 5 | Coastal Carolina | 5-4 |
| 6 | Georgia Southern | 5-4 |
| 7 | Arkansas State | 4-3 |
| 8 | Louisiana | 4-3 |
| 9 | South Alabama | 3-4 |
| 10 | Louisiana Tech | 2-0 |
| 11 | Marshall | 2-5 |
| 12 | App State | 2-7 |
| 13 | UL Monroe | 1-6 |
| 14 | Georgia State | 0-8 |
Coaching Era · Troy
Coaching Era · TroyGerad Parker
Gerad Parker in year 3 of the rebuild. The methodology is taking shape.
Era Gerad Parker · 2024–presentPrev: Jon Sumrall (2022–2023)OC: Adam AustinPrev OC: Sean Reagan (2024–2025)DC: co-Nathan Burton / Dontae WrightPrev DC: Greg Gasparato (2023)
3
years · era
Rituals
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
FBS Reclassification (2001)
since 2001
Troy reclassified from FCS Division I-AA to FBS in 2001 — earlier than most Sun Belt programs. The 2001 jump produced rapid ascent through Sun Belt championships + multiple bowl appearances + the program's identity as Alabama's second football program (behind only Bama / Auburn / UAB in the state pecking order).
Bleed Cardinal Identity
since 2000s
'Bleed Cardinal' — Troy's defiance-rooted fan mantra — captures the program's identity in the shadow of Alabama's three larger programs (Bama, Auburn, UAB). The cardinal-red color + the post-FBS ascent + the multiple Sun Belt championships create permanent identity positioning.
Neal Brown 2017 / Jon Sumrall 2022 Eras
since 2017
Neal Brown's 2017 11-2 + Sun Belt championship + Dollar General Bowl + the LSU upset (24-21) made Troy a national G5 disruptor. Jon Sumrall's 2022 12-2 + New Mexico Bowl championship + multiple Sun Belt championships continued the era. The 2017 LSU win + 2022 12-win season cement modern relevance.
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2017
The upset at LSU
Troy goes into Tiger Stadium and beats LSU — the program's defining giant-killing
The 2022 Sun Belt title
Jon Sumrall's 12-2 team wins the conference and the New Mexico Bowl
Losing the 2025 title game
Troy wins the West but falls to James Madison 31-14 in the Sun Belt Championship
Heartbreak
Moment of the Year · Troy · 2025
Moment of the Year · Troy · 2025Lost 16-27 at Clemson
Week 2 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Bowl / Postseason LedgerRecent postseason (2016-2025): 4-2
Most recent: 2025 — loss 17-13 (away). Last 5 postseason: 3-2.
20252023202220182017
NFL Draft Pipeline
2023–2024
NFL Draft PipelineDeveloping
3 picks last 5 cycles. Pipeline emerging.
3
picks · 0 R1
#107
Jake Andrews
Center · 2023 · New England
#168
Javon Solomon
Defensive Edge · 2024 · Buffalo · #2/577 final season
#181
Kimani Vidal
Running Back · 2024 · Los Angeles · #15/310 final season
#106 all-time · 2 first-round picksthe talent factory →
Unit lineage
Troy’s offense and defense, by coordinator
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Offense2014–2025
2014–2015 · co-Kenny Edenfield2016–2017 · co-Kenny Edenfield / co-Matt Moore2018 · co-Sean Reagan / co-Matt Moore2019–2020 · Ryan Pugh2021 · Luke Meadows2022–2023 · Joe Craddock2024–2025 · Sean Reagan
Hired for 2026: Adam Austin — not yet reflected in on-field data.
Defense2014–2025
2014 · Wayne Bolt2015–2018 · Vic Koenning2019–2021 · Brandon Hall2022 · Shiel Wood2023 · Greg Gasparato2024–2025 (ongoing) · co-Nathan Burton / Dontae Wright
Elite (≥70th pct)AveragePoor (≤30th pct)
Chronicle Visuals
A heavy-turnover 2025: 33% returning (below average), with the offense the biggest question.
The portal upgraded the K room but opened a hole at WR.
Troy converts recruit talent into draft picks better than its class rank suggests.
r/cfb moments
7.2k
[Postgame Thread] Appalachian State Defeats Troy 32-28
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[Postgame Thread] Troy Defeats Appalachian State 49-23
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[Postgame Thread] BYU Defeats Troy 48-7
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