Troy
Utah State
11:30 PM · Maverik Stadium

Troy at Utah State — no line posted yet, but the model favors Utah State (80%).

What’s at stake

Make the CFP field

Utah State · 2%
Troy · 1%

Win the conference

Utah State · 7%
Troy · 5%

Win it all

Utah State · 0%
Troy · 0%

CFP odds as of September 3, 2026

The series

Troy leads the series 2-1

3 meetings since 2002 · Troy has won the last 2

  • 2004Troy 49–21
  • 2003Troy 23–14
  • 2002Utah State 19–16

Face-off

What each fanbase carries into this one.

Troy

The chip · vs the blue bloods

Troy's whole self-image is built on one thing: walking into an SEC stadium as a heavy underdog and winning. Fans believe the big Alabama programs and the national media see Troy as a paycheck opponent, and there is nothing they enjoy more than proving otherwise on a Saturday in Baton Rouge or Athens.

What this game touches

One step short in 2025. Gerad Parker engineered a four-win improvement and a Sun Belt West title in 2025, then Troy lost the conference championship to James Madison 31-14 and dropped its bowl to Jacksonville State 17-13 — a strong year that stopped just short of the trophy Troy measures itself by.

Utah State

The chip · vs big brother

Aggie fans have spent forever as the state's third program, behind Utah and BYU, told Logan is too small and too cold to matter. They'll point to the Pac-12 invitation and ask which little brother is moving up now.

What this game touches

The years of churn before the reset. Utah State's 2021 Mountain West title gave way to staff upheaval and instability, and Bronco Mendenhall inherited a program that needed rebuilding. His first year, 2025, went 6-7 (4-4 Mountain West) with a Famous Idaho Potato Bowl loss to Washington State — a steadying season, not yet a winning one.

Best players

Utah State

  • Gio Kafentzis (S) · 8 tackles
  • Carl Nesmith (LB) · 5 tackles
  • Titan Saxton (DB) · 5 tackles

Troy

  • Jordan Stringer (LB) · 2025: 123 tackles
  • Devin Lafayette (S) · 2025: 113 tackles
  • Justin Powe (S) · 2025: 75 tackles

The line, and the room

Utah State fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (93rd percentile) — the mood matches the numbers.

evenModel · 80%Utah State fans · 93rdTroy fans · 98thTroyUtah State

Conditions

Home-field advantage: Strong

Utah State is 63% at home, 47% on the road since 2018 (29-17 home, 21-24 away).