Utah State beats Troy 21-10

Team pages: Troy · Utah State

Troy2-210
Utah State1-321Final
Sat, Sep 26 · Maverik Stadium, Logan, Utah · Crowd 22,037CBS Sports Network

Utah State beat Troy 21-10.

We had Utah State favored. It won.

Next: Troy beat Southern Miss 55-34, Tue Oct 6

Next: Utah State lost to Boise State 37-18, Sat Oct 3

How it swung

The turning point: Lovett run for a 15-yd loss, fumbles, turnover on downs (Q1, 1:24). Utah State went from 56% to 75% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Utah State a 69% chance, and the closing betting line (Utah State was a 3-point favorite) put it at 60%.

A tight one: Utah State bottomed out at 38% and won.

Troy never had better than a 62% chance.

FinalUtah State 21-10 TroyUtah State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450% at halfUtah StateTroyWon21-1012+19+19Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450% at halfUtah StateTroyWon21-1012Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q450% at halfTroyUtah StateLowest 0%Lost10-2112−19−19Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q450% at halfTroyUtah StateLowest 0%Lost10-2112Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 1:24Fumble4th and 10Lovett run for a 15-yd loss, fumbles, turnover on downsUtah State 56% → 75% (+19)
  2. 2Q2 0:25InterceptionCrowder intercepted by Mayes at the USU15, returned 30 yardsUtah State 39% → 58% (+19)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 1:24Fumble4th and 10Lovett run for a 15-yd loss, fumbles, turnover on downsTroy 44% → 25% (−19)
  2. 2Q2 0:25InterceptionCrowder intercepted by Mayes at the USU15, returned 30 yardsTroy 61% → 42% (−19)
Utah State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Utah State -3), at 69% for Utah State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Utah State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 13:46Brosterhous 57-yd TD pass to RobinsonUtah State goes ahead 7-0Q1, 13:46 · Utah State 7, Troy 0▲14%Utah State’s chance to win, 67% to 81%▲14%Utah State’s chance to win, 67% to 81%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  2. Q1, 7:56Crowder 13-yd TD pass to Kinchenties it 7-7Q1, 7:56 · Utah State 7, Troy 7▼5%Utah State’s chance to win, 75% to 70%▼5%Utah State’s chance to win, 75% to 70%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  3. Q1, 1:24Lovett run for a 15-yd loss, fumblesturnover on downsQ1, 1:24 · Utah State 7, Troy 7▲19%Utah State’s chance to win, 56% to 75%▲19%Utah State’s chance to win, 56% to 75%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  4. Q2, 0:25Crowder intercepted by Mayes at the USU15returned 30 yardsQ2, 0:25 · Utah State 7, Troy 10▲19%Utah State’s chance to win, 39% to 58%▲19%Utah State’s chance to win, 39% to 58%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  5. Q3, 11:02Brosterhous 5-yd TD pass to WoodUtah State goes ahead 14-10Q3, 11:02 · Utah State 14, Troy 10▲17%Utah State’s chance to win, 55% to 72%▲17%Utah State’s chance to win, 55% to 72%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  6. Q3, 4:51Jacobs 6-yd TD runUtah State leads 21-10Q3, 4:51 · Utah State 21, Troy 10▲6%Utah State’s chance to win, 85% to 91%▲6%Utah State’s chance to win, 85% to 91%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  7. Q4, 10:37Brosterhous sacked for a 3-yd lossQ4, 10:37 · Utah State 21, Troy 1021-10score after the play21-10score after the playWatch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  8. Q4, 6:37Crowder intercepted by Hamblin at the USU02returned 33 yardsQ4, 6:37 · Utah State 21, Troy 10▲4%Utah State’s chance to win, 94% to 98%▲4%Utah State’s chance to win, 94% to 98%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  9. Q4, 0:57Crowder intercepted by Kabongo at the USU45returned 27 yardsQ4, 0:57 · Utah State 21, Troy 10▲3%Utah State’s chance to win, 95% to 98%▲3%Utah State’s chance to win, 95% to 98%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football

Every drive

Utah State scored on 3 of its 13 drives; Troy on 2 of its 12.

Utah State’s drives are teal, Troy’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Troy: Punt, from 75 yards out to 69PuntUtah State: Touchdown, from 57 yards out to 0TouchdownTroy: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownUtah State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 40PuntTroy: Turned over on downs, from 95 yards out to 50DownsUtah State: Missed field goal, from 50 yards out to 9Missed FGQ2Troy: Field goal, from 80 yards out to 27Field goalUtah State: Interception, from 75 yards out to 58InterceptionTroy: Punt, from 59 yards out to 55PuntUtah State: Punt, from 90 yards out to 66PuntTroy: Punt, from 72 yards out to 58PuntUtah State: Punt, from 88 yards out to 81PuntTroy: Interception, from 62 yards out to 32InterceptionUtah State: End of half, from 55 yards out to 45End of halfQ3Utah State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownTroy: Punt, from 75 yards out to 52PuntUtah State: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownTroy: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 9Missed FGUtah State: Punt, from 80 yards out to 74PuntQ4Troy: Missed field goal, from 72 yards out to 30Missed FGUtah State: Fumble, from 70 yards out to 15FumbleTroy: Interception, from 89 yards out to 34InterceptionUtah State: Punt, from 65 yards out to 42PuntTroy: Interception, from 87 yards out to 60InterceptionUtah State: End of game, from 28 yards out to 30End of game

From Troy’s side

Troy’s best moment: Brosterhous intercepted by Keyes at the Troy 40 (Q2 9:24). It lifted Troy’s win chance by 19 points.

What it cost

Troy’s chance to make the playoff fell from 3% to 2%.

Make the playoff

Troy · lost3% → ▼2%
Utah State · won0% → 0%

Win the conference

Troy · lost9% → ▼8%9%▼ 8%
Utah State · won3% → 3%

Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Utah State 21, Troy 10

Utah State covered −3 by 8. The total, 31, stayed under 47.5.

TroyUtah StateTotal yardsTroy 395Utah State 413395413Passing yardsTroy 226Utah State 242226242Rushing yardsTroy 169Utah State 171169171First downsTroy 26Utah State 192619TurnoversTroy 3Utah State 232Time of possessionTroy 34:16Utah State 25:4234:1625:42
Team totalsTroyUtah State
Total yards395413
Passing25 of 49, 226 yds18 of 28, 242 yds
Rushing31 for 169 yds31 for 171 yds
First downs2619
Third down4 of 134 of 11
Fourth down0 of 21 of 1
Turnovers32
Penalties7 for 75 yds13 for 105 yds
Time of possession34:1625:42

Troy leaders

  • Passing Will Crowder 25 of 49, 226 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
  • Rushing Gavin Griffin 11 for 66 yds; Will Crowder 5 for 48 yds
  • Receiving Noreel White 6 for 75 yds; Howard Kinchen 6 for 58 yds, 1 TD

Utah State leaders

  • Passing Grady Brosterhous 18 of 28, 242 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Grady Brosterhous 15 for 89 yds; Javen Jacobs 14 for 84 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Eli Wood 7 for 96 yds, 1 TD; Javon Robinson 4 for 67 yds, 1 TD

No rain and calm

78° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 5 mph from the south, gusts to 10

The usual here around this date is 59°, with about 7 in 10 games between 49° and 67°.

September game-day temperatures at Maverik Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Utah State favoredTroy favored100%Win chanceUtah StateRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Utah State favoredTroy favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Second quarter, 0:25 left6:54 p.m.
Troy 10, Utah State 7 · Utah State 58% to win
no rain · wind 2 mph from the south-southwest · 73°
Crowder intercepted by Mayes at the USU15, returned 30 yards

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Logan-cache Airport, 3.4 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Troy · 2-1

Rated 113th in our preseason ratings, 113th now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 17-27 @ MissouriTop 25 #36 of 668

lost by 10 as a 26.5-point underdog

Troy lost 17-27 at Missouri. Chance to win started at 3%, low under 1%, high 22%.

W 34-17 vs Alabama State #134 of 668

won by 17 as a 23.5-point favorite

Troy won 34-17 vs Alabama State. Chance to win started at 95%, low 91%, high better than 99%.

W 24-21 vs Sam Houston #160 of 668

won by 3 as a 15.5-point favorite

Troy won 24-21 vs Sam Houston. Chance to win started at 86%, low 68%, high better than 99%.

Last three games

Utah State · 0-3

Rated 52nd in our preseason ratings, 55th now.

Three straight losses.

L 0-33 @ UtahTop 25 #25 of 668

lost by 33 as a 26.5-point underdog

Utah State lost 0-33 at Utah. Chance to win started at 3%, low under 1%, high 3%.

L 14-16 @ WashingtonTop 25 #28 of 668

lost by 2 as a 28.5-point underdog

Utah State lost 14-16 at Washington. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 23%.

L 17-29 vs Idaho State #141 of 668

lost by 12 as a 15.5-point favorite

Utah State lost 17-29 vs Idaho State. Chance to win started at 88%, low 2%, high 94%.

Week by week

Utah State

Wk 1: L 17-29 vs Idaho State▼12Idaho StateWk 2: L 14-16 at Washington▼2WashingtonWk 3: L 0-33 at Utah▼33Utah
  • Wk 1Lvs Idaho State17-29
  • Wk 2Lat Washington14-16
  • Wk 3Lat Utah0-33

Troy

Wk 1: W 24-21 vs Sam Houston▲3Sam HoustonWk 2: W 34-17 vs Alabama State▲17Alabama StateWk 3: L 17-27 at Missouri▼10Missouri
  • Wk 1Wvs Sam Houston24-21
  • Wk 2Wvs Alabama State34-17
  • Wk 3Lat Missouri17-27

Power rating by week

Utah State is rated 4.9 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

5-1-6Wk 0Wk 2Wk 3Utah StateTroy

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Utah State’s explosive plays against Troy, 70 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Utah State’s explosive plays against Troy’s defense

    70 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Utah State offense, 95th percentile · Troy defense, 25th

  2. Utah State’s passing EPA against Troy’s defense

    54 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Utah State offense, 4th percentile · Troy defense, 58th

  3. Utah State’s success rate against Troy’s defense

    48 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Utah State offense, 3rd percentile · Troy defense, 51st

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

TroyUtah State
EPA/play, offense
Troy · 27Utah State · 5
EPA/play, defense
Troy · 43Utah State · 57
Success rate, offense
Troy · 29Utah State · 3
Success rate, defense
Troy · 51Utah State · 58
Explosive-play rate, offense
Troy · 63Utah State · 95
Explosive-play rate, defense
Troy · 25Utah State · 68
Rush EPA, offense
Troy · 53Utah State · 11
Rush EPA, defense
Troy · 37Utah State · 68
Pass EPA, offense
Troy · 22Utah State · 4
Pass EPA, defense
Troy · 58Utah State · 44

The series

Troy leads the series 2-1

3 meetings since 2002 · Troy has won the last 2

  • 2004Troy 49-21
  • 2003Troy 23-14
  • 2002Utah State 19-16

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Troy fans are in a better mood than Utah State fans (96th vs 64th among FBS fanbases), even with Utah State favored.

  • Model · 69%
  • Line · 60%
  • Utah State fans · 64th
  • Troy fans · 96th

Utah State favored by 3 · Total 47.5

How games like this usually go

Utah State by 3, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward Utah State.

opened −2.5now −3

The total fell 5 points.

opened 52.5now 47.5

Spread: −2.5 → −3 · Total: 52.5 → 47.5

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Mild and dry. Feels like 70° at kickoff.

Troy at Utah State · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · Maverik Stadium, Logan

  • 70°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 100weather score, Ideal
  • Tiedfor the best of the day's 3 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 3 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's three kickoff times. At Maverik Stadium that day, a 1 pm kickoff would have scored 97, against 100 at 5:30 pm.

  • 1 pm: 97, Comfortable
  • 5:30 pm: 100, Ideal (this game)
  • 7 pm: 100, Ideal

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Utah State is worth +5.0 points (±4.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 65th percentile.

61% at home, 44% on the road against FBS opponents (25-16 home, 21-27 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.8 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±6.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

4,685 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 1,579 miles to get here.

Where next