Troy beats Alabama State 34-17

Team pages: Alabama State · Troy

Alabama State2-117
Troy2-034Final
Sat, Sep 12 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL), Troy, Ala. · Crowd 26,634ESPN+

Troy beat Alabama State 34-17.

We had Troy favored. It won.

Next: Alabama State beat Mississippi Valley State 41-15, Sat Sep 26

Next: Troy lost to Missouri 27-17, Sat Sep 19

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Troy a 54% chance, and the closing betting line (Troy was a 23.5-point favorite) put it at 97%.

Favored the whole way: Troy never fell below 91%.

Alabama State never had better than a 9% chance.

FinalTroy 34-17 Alabama StateTroy wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4TroyWon34-17Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4TroyWon34-17Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4TroyLowest 0%Lost17-34Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4TroyLowest 0%Lost17-34Scores

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

Troy’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Troy -23.5), at 95% for Troy (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Troy’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 13:25Crowder 73-yd TD pass to KeyesTroy goes ahead 7-0Q1, 13:25 · Troy 7, Alabama State 0▲3%Troy’s chance to win, 95% to 98%▲3%Troy’s chance to win, 95% to 98%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  2. Q1, 10:51Hostzclaw 50-yd TD runties it 7-7Q1, 10:51 · Troy 7, Alabama State 7▼3%Troy’s chance to win, 98% to 95%▼3%Troy’s chance to win, 98% to 95%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  3. Q1, 8:17Crowder sacked for a 10-yd lossQ1, 8:17 · Troy 7, Alabama State 7▼3%Troy’s chance to win, 94% to 91%▼3%Troy’s chance to win, 94% to 91%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  4. Q2, 3:41Merriweather 6-yd TD runTroy leads 24-7Q2, 3:41 · Troy 24, Alabama State 724-7score after the play24-7score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  5. Q2, 1:07Body sacked for a 9-yd lossfumblesQ2, 1:07 · Troy 24, Alabama State 724-7score after the play24-7score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  6. Q2, 0:15Merriweather 1-yd TD runTroy leads 31-7Q2, 0:15 · Troy 31, Alabama State 731-7score after the play31-7score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  7. Q3, 11:33Body 19-yd TD pass to Austincuts it to 31-14Q3, 11:33 · Troy 31, Alabama State 1431-14score after the play31-14score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  8. Q3, 9:20Body sacked for a 3-yd lossQ3, 9:20 · Troy 31, Alabama State 1431-14score after the play31-14score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference

Every drive

Troy scored on 6 of its 13 drives; Alabama State on 3 of its 13.

Troy’s drives are teal, Alabama State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Troy: Touchdown, from 90 yards out to 0TouchdownAlabama State: Touchdown, from 81 yards out to 0TouchdownTroy: Punt, from 79 yards out to 86PuntAlabama State: Punt, from 52 yards out to 53PuntTroy: Touchdown, from 69 yards out to 0TouchdownAlabama State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 77PuntTroy: Field goal, from 55 yards out to 6Field goalQ2Alabama State: Punt, from 82 yards out to 70PuntTroy: Touchdown, from 61 yards out to 0TouchdownAlabama State: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 58FumbleTroy: Touchdown, from 42 yards out to 0TouchdownAlabama State: End of half, from 77 yards out to 79End of halfQ3Alabama State: Punt, from 84 yards out to 71PuntTroy: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 66DownsAlabama State: Touchdown, from 34 yards out to 0TouchdownTroy: Turned over on downs, from 76 yards out to 70DownsAlabama State: Field goal, from 30 yards out to 20Field goalTroy: Field goal, from 64 yards out to 29Field goalAlabama State: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 28DownsTroy: Missed field goal, from 72 yards out to 28Missed FGQ4Alabama State: Punt, from 72 yards out to 70PuntTroy: Punt, from 80 yards out to 72PuntAlabama State: Punt, from 76 yards out to 49PuntTroy: Punt, from 88 yards out to 86PuntAlabama State: Turned over on downs, from 46 yards out to 13DownsTroy: End of game, from 87 yards out to 88End of game

Box score

Troy 34, Alabama State 17

Alabama State covered +23.5 by 6.5. The total, 51, stayed under 52.5.

Alabama StateTroyTotal yardsAlabama State 221Troy 427221427Passing yardsAlabama State 105Troy 201105201Rushing yardsAlabama State 116Troy 226116226First downsAlabama State 15Troy 191519TurnoversAlabama State 1Troy 010Time of possessionAlabama State 27:05Troy 32:5527:0532:55
Team totalsAlabama StateTroy
Total yards221427
Passing13 of 24, 105 yds14 of 29, 201 yds
Rushing34 for 116 yds39 for 226 yds
First downs1519
Third down4 of 143 of 14
Fourth down0 of 23 of 5
Turnovers10
Penalties4 for 30 yds12 for 120 yds
Time of possession27:0532:55

Alabama State leaders

  • Passing Andrew Body 13 of 23, 105 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Jamarie Hostzclaw 12 for 80 yds, 1 TD; Aaron Frye 3 for 17 yds
  • Receiving Franck Pierre 1 for 27 yds; Nehemiah Hixon 2 for 24 yds

Troy leaders

  • Passing Will Crowder 14 of 27, 201 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Jaheim Merriweather 13 for 127 yds, 3 TD; Gavin Griffin 10 for 56 yds
  • Receiving TK Keyes 5 for 119 yds, 1 TD; Jywon Boyd 3 for 38 yds

No rain and calm

85° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 4 mph from the south-southeast, gusts to 15

September game-day temperatures at Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Troy favoredAlabama State favored100%Win chanceTroyRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Troy favoredAlabama State favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:44 left3:04 p.m.
Alabama State 0, Troy 0 · Troy 95% to win
no rain · wind 6 mph from the southwest · 85°
Lovett 3-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Troy Municipal airport, 5.5 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

Alabama State · 2-0

Rated 114th in our preseason ratings, 128th now.

Two straight wins, including a 13-point win over Southern as a 19.5-point underdog.

W 34-0 vs Lane College #399 of 668

Alabama State won 34-0 vs Lane College. Chance to win started at 57%, low 48%, high better than 99%.

W 30-17 vs Southern #217 of 668

won by 13 as a 19.5-point underdog

Alabama State won 30-17 vs Southern. Chance to win started at 16%, low 5%, high 97%.

Last three games · 2025 season

Troy · 8-6

Rated 113th in our preseason ratings, 118th now.

1-2 in its last three, including a 10-point win over Southern Miss as a 6.5-point underdog.

L 13-17 @ Jacksonville State #111 of 667

lost by 4 as a 3-point underdog

Troy lost 13-17 vs Jacksonville State. Chance to win started at 34%, low under 1%, high 65%.

L 14-31 @ James MadisonTop 25 #23 of 667

lost by 17 as a 22.5-point underdog

Troy lost 14-31 at James Madison. Chance to win started at 6%, low under 1%, high 18%.

W 28-18 @ Southern Miss #119 of 667

won by 10 as a 6.5-point underdog

Troy won 28-18 at Southern Miss. Chance to win started at 25%, low 18%, high better than 99%.

W 31-19 vs Georgia State #195 of 667

won by 12 as a 10.5-point favorite

Troy won 31-19 vs Georgia State. Chance to win started at 84%, low 70%, high better than 99%.

L 0-33 @ Old Dominion #52 of 667

lost by 33 as a 9.5-point underdog

Troy lost 0-33 at Old Dominion. Chance to win started at 19%, low under 1%, high 23%.

L 10-23 vs Arkansas State #113 of 667

lost by 13 as a 7.5-point favorite

Troy lost 10-23 vs Arkansas State. Chance to win started at 77%, low 1%, high 79%.

W 35-23 vs Louisiana #132 of 667

won by 12 as a 7.5-point favorite

Troy won 35-23 vs Louisiana. Chance to win started at 77%, low 50%, high better than 99%.

W 37-14 @ UL Monroe #152 of 667

won by 23 as a 5.5-point favorite

Troy won 37-14 at UL Monroe. Chance to win started at 60%, low 53%, high better than 99%.

W 48-41 @ Texas State #73 of 667

won by 7 as a 7.5-point underdog

W 31-24 vs South Alabama #96 of 667

won by 7 as a 2.5-point underdog

Troy won 31-24 vs South Alabama. Chance to win started at 53%, low 37%, high better than 99%.

W 21-17 @ Buffalo #101 of 667

won by 4 as a 6.5-point underdog

Troy won 21-17 at Buffalo. Chance to win started at 27%, low under 1%, high 70%.

L 7-28 vs MemphisTop 25 #27 of 667

lost by 21 as a 4.5-point underdog

Troy lost 7-28 vs Memphis. Chance to win started at 42%, low under 1%, high 54%.

L 16-27 @ ClemsonTop 25 #18 of 667

lost by 11 as a 29.5-point underdog

Troy lost 16-27 at Clemson. Chance to win started at 3%, low under 1%, high 44%.

W 38-20 vs Nicholls #171 of 667

won by 18 as a 16.5-point favorite

Troy won 38-20 vs Nicholls. Chance to win started at 90%, low 52%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Troy

  • Wk 1Wvs Sam Houston24-21

Alabama State

Wk 1: W 30-17 vs Southern▲13SouthernWk 1: W 34-0 vs Lane College▲34Lane College
  • Wk 1Wvs Southern30-17
  • Wk 1Wvs Lane College34-0

The series

Troy leads the series 2-0

2 meetings since 2006 · Troy has won the last 2

  • 2017Troy 34-7
  • 2006Troy 38-0

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Troy’s chances here.

50-50Model · 54%Line · 97%Alabama StateTroy

Troy favored by 23.5 · Total 52.5

How games like this usually go

Troy by 23.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The total rose 1 point.

opened 51.5now 52.5

Total: 51.5 → 52.5

The books’ cut: 3.8%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 86° at kickoff.

Alabama State at Troy · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy

  • 86°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 71weather score, Rough

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 5 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed. At Veterans Memorial Stadium that day, a 6:45 pm kickoff would have scored 98, against 71 at 2:30 pm.

  • 11 am: 61, Rough
  • 2:30 pm: 71, Rough (this game)
  • 3:15 pm: 73, Rough
  • 6 pm: 95, Comfortable
  • 6:45 pm: 98, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Troy is worth +2.7 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 26th percentile.

63% at home, 48% on the road against FBS opponents (27-16 home, 25-27 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.4 at home vs. away over 104 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 44 miles to get here.

Where next