Alabama State beats Mississippi Valley State 41-15

Mississippi Valley State1-415
Alabama State3-141Final
Sat, Sep 26 · Hornet Stadium, Montgomery, Ala. · Crowd 15,789

Alabama State beat Mississippi Valley State 41-15.

We had Alabama State favored. It won.

Next: Mississippi Valley State beat Prairie View A&M 28-27, Sat Oct 3

Next: Alabama State lost to Bethune-Cookman 16-10, Sat Oct 3

Box score

Alabama State 41, Mississippi Valley State 15

Mississippi Valley State covered +34.5 by 8.5. The total, 56, went over 54.5.

Mississippi Valley State leaders

  • Passing Josh Brown 10 of 15, 110 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Caleb Brownlow 2 for 77 yds, 1 TD; Norman Taylor 11 for 22 yds
  • Receiving Caleb Brownlow 2 for 53 yds, 1 TD; Jaylen King 2 for 19 yds

Alabama State leaders

  • Passing Aaron Frye 10 of 21, 137 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Jareese Howard 6 for 60 yds, 1 TD; Aaron Frye 9 for 29 yds, 2 TD
  • Receiving Randall King 3 for 72 yds; Daionte Hicks 1 for 34 yds, 1 TD

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Mississippi Valley State · 1-3

Rated 253rd in our preseason ratings, 263rd now.

1-3 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 6-21 vs Delta State #314 of 668

Mississippi Valley State lost 6-21 vs Delta State. Chance to win started at 62%, low under 1%, high 69%.

W 31-20 vs Lincoln (PA) #410 of 668

Mississippi Valley State won 31-20 vs Lincoln (PA). Chance to win started at 66%, low 44%, high better than 99%.

L 10-44 @ Nicholls #158 of 668

lost by 34 as a 28.5-point underdog

Last three games

Alabama State · 2-1

Rated 114th in our preseason ratings, 139th now.

2-1 in its last three, including a 13-point win over Southern as a 19.5-point underdog.

Week by week

Alabama State

Wk 1: W 30-17 vs Southern▲13SouthernWk 1: W 34-0 vs Lane College▲34Lane CollegeWk 2: L 17-34 at Troy▼17Troy
  • Wk 1Wvs Southern30-17
  • Wk 1Wvs Lane College34-0
  • Wk 2Lat Troy17-34

Mississippi Valley State

Wk 1: L 10-44 at Nicholls▼34NichollsWk 1: L 0-52 at Sacramento State▼52Sacramento…Wk 2: W 31-20 vs Lincoln (PA)▲11Lincoln (PA)Wk 3: L 6-21 vs Delta State▼15Delta State
  • Wk 1Lat Nicholls10-44
  • Wk 1Lat Sacramento State0-52
  • Wk 2Wvs Lincoln (PA)31-20
  • Wk 3Lvs Delta State6-21

Power rating by week

Alabama State is rated 8.3 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-3-9-15Wk 0Wk 2Wk 3Alabama StateMississippi Valley State

The series

Alabama State leads the series 15-2

17 meetings since 2007 · Alabama State has won the last 4

Alabama State wonMississippi Valley State won2007: Alabama State by 42008: Alabama State by 402009: Mississippi Valley State by 72010: Alabama State by 282011: Alabama State by 322012: Alabama State by 222013: Alabama State by 122014: Alabama State by 252016: Alabama State by 322017: Alabama State by 62018: Alabama State by 72019: Alabama State by 272021: Mississippi Valley State by 132022: Alabama State by 152023: Alabama State by 172024: Alabama State by 372025: Alabama State by 3820072025
  • 2025Alabama State 41-3
  • 2024Alabama State 54-17
  • 2023Alabama State 20-3
  • 2022Alabama State 24-9
  • 2021Mississippi Valley State 44-31

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on Alabama State’s chances here.

50-50Model 95% · Line 100%Mississippi Valley StateAlabama State

Alabama State favored by 34.5 · Total 54.5

The market

The total fell 1 point.

opened 55.5now 54.5

Total: 55.5 → 54.5

Home field

Alabama State has been 0.3 points worse at home than on the road since 2018 — worse at home, 1st percentile.

0% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (0-1 home, 0-9 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -7.8 at home vs. away over 40 games — outside the ±6.1 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.

The visitors travel about 248 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.