Bethune-Cookman upsets Alabama State 16-10

Team pages: Alabama State · Bethune-Cookman

Alabama State3-210
Bethune-Cookman3-216Final
Sat, Oct 3 · Municipal Stadium, Daytona Beach, Fla. · Crowd 4,055

Bethune-Cookman beat Alabama State 16-10 as a 7-point underdog.

Next: Alabama State lost to Florida A&M 28-27, Fri Oct 9

Next: Bethune-Cookman lost to Alabama A&M 55-17, Sat Oct 10

How it swung

The turning point: Abu-Akel 35-yd field goal no good (Q2, 11:54). Bethune-Cookman went from 49% to 72% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Bethune-Cookman a 39% chance, and the closing betting line (Bethune-Cookman was a 7-point underdog) put it at 29%.

FinalBethune-Cookman 16-10 Alabama StateBethune-Cookman wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q462% at halfBethune-CookmanWon16-1012+23+22Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q462% at halfBethune-CookmanWon16-1012Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q438% at halfBethune-CookmanLost10-1612−23−22Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q438% at halfBethune-CookmanLost10-1612Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 11:54Abu-Akel 35-yd field goal no goodBethune-Cookman 49% → 72% (+23)
  2. 2Q3 4:27Brown 12-yd TD run, Bethune-Cookman leads 13-3Bethune-Cookman 61% → 83% (+22)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 11:54Abu-Akel 35-yd field goal no goodAlabama State 51% → 28% (−23)
  2. 2Q3 4:27Brown 12-yd TD run, Bethune-Cookman leads 13-3Alabama State 39% → 17% (−22)
Bethune-Cookman’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Alabama State -7), at 38% for Bethune-Cookman (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Bethune-Cookman scored on 4 of its 10 drives; Alabama State on 2 of its 11.

Bethune-Cookman’s drives are teal, Alabama State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Alabama State: Punt, from 77 yards out to 59PuntBethune-Cookman: Field goal, from 80 yards out to 10Field goalAlabama State: Punt, from 78 yards out to 82PuntBethune-Cookman: Field goal, from 45 yards out to 6Field goalAlabama State: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 18Missed FGQ2Bethune-Cookman: Punt, from 80 yards out to 74PuntAlabama State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 37PuntBethune-Cookman: Punt, from 96 yards out to 65PuntAlabama State: Field goal, from 72 yards out to 17Field goalAlabama State: End of half, from 65 yards out to 65End of halfQ3Bethune-Cookman: Interception, from 82 yards out to 33InterceptionAlabama State: Punt, from 79 yards out to 58PuntBethune-Cookman: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownAlabama State: Punt, from 77 yards out to 66PuntBethune-Cookman: Field goal, from 64 yards out to 15Field goalQ4Alabama State: Touchdown, from 33 yards out to 0TouchdownBethune-Cookman: Punt, from 82 yards out to 54PuntAlabama State: Turned over on downs, from 77 yards out to 20DownsBethune-Cookman: Punt, from 80 yards out to 49PuntAlabama State: Fumble, from 88 yards out to 89FumbleBethune-Cookman: Uncategorized, from 11 yards out to 12Uncategorized

From Alabama State’s side

Alabama State’s best moment: 37-yd punt (Q4 0:38). It lifted Alabama State’s win chance by 17 points.

Too close to call on 64% of plays.

Box score

Bethune-Cookman 16, Alabama State 10

Bethune-Cookman covered +7 by 13. The total, 26, stayed under 51.5.

Alabama State leaders

  • Passing Aaron Frye 12 of 20, 93 yds
  • Rushing Jamarie Hostzclaw 14 for 75 yds, 1 TD; Tj Ramsey 5 for 45 yds
  • Receiving Israel Tate 4 for 26 yds; Jamarie Hostzclaw 2 for 25 yds

Bethune-Cookman leaders

  • Passing Tyler Jefferson 5 of 12, 51 yds, 1 INT
  • Rushing Rashon Brown 31 for 260 yds, 1 TD; Tyler Jefferson 14 for 60 yds
  • Receiving Willie Anderson 3 for 26 yds; Kobe Stewart 1 for 17 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Alabama State · 3-1

Rated 114th in our preseason ratings, 144th now.

3-1 in its last 4, including a 13-point win over Southern as a 19.5-point underdog.

W 41-15 vs Mississippi Valley State #265 of 668

won by 26 as a 34.5-point favorite

L 17-34 @ Troy #119 of 668

lost by 17 as a 23.5-point underdog

Alabama State lost 17-34 at Troy. Chance to win started at 5%, low under 1%, high 9%.

W 34-0 vs Lane College #399 of 668

Alabama State won 34-0 vs Lane College. Chance to win started at 57%, low 48%, high better than 99%.

W 30-17 vs Southern #217 of 668

won by 13 as a 19.5-point underdog

Alabama State won 30-17 vs Southern. Chance to win started at 16%, low 5%, high 97%.

Last 4 games

Bethune-Cookman · 2-2

Rated 174th in our preseason ratings, 182nd now.

2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 21-31 vs South Carolina State #116 of 668

lost by 10 as a 17.5-point underdog

Bethune-Cookman lost 21-31 vs South Carolina State. Chance to win started at 14%, low under 1%, high 27%.

W 62-3 vs Virginia Lynchburg

Bethune-Cookman won 62-3 vs Virginia Lynchburg. Chance to win started at 63%, low 48%, high better than 99%.

W 43-18 vs Stetson #259 of 668

won by 25 as a 14.5-point favorite

Bethune-Cookman won 43-18 vs Stetson. Chance to win started at 88%, low 83%, high better than 99%.

L 6-73 @ UCF #103 of 668

lost by 67 as a 43.5-point underdog

Bethune-Cookman lost 6-73 at UCF. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

Week by week

Bethune-Cookman

Wk 1: L 6-73 at UCF▼67UCFWk 2: W 43-18 vs Stetson▲25StetsonWk 3: W 62-3 vs Virginia Lynchburg▲59Virginia Ly…Wk 4: L 21-31 vs South Carolina State▼10S. Carolina…
  • Wk 1Lat UCF6-73
  • Wk 2Wvs Stetson43-18
  • Wk 3Wvs Virginia Lynchburg62-3
  • Wk 4Lvs South Carolina State21-31

Alabama State

Wk 1: W 30-17 vs Southern▲13SouthernWk 1: W 34-0 vs Lane College▲34Lane CollegeWk 2: L 17-34 at Troy▼17TroyWk 4: W 41-15 vs Mississippi Valley State▲26Mississippi…
  • Wk 1Wvs Southern30-17
  • Wk 1Wvs Lane College34-0
  • Wk 2Lat Troy17-34
  • Wk 4Wvs Mississippi Valley State41-15

Power rating by week

Alabama State is rated 2.5 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-4-6-9Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Bethune-CookmanAlabama State

The series

Alabama State leads the series 5-3

8 meetings since 2003 · Alabama State has won the last 5

Bethune-Cookman wonAlabama State won2003: Bethune-Cookman by 52008: Bethune-Cookman by 212012: Bethune-Cookman by 102021: Alabama State by 142022: Alabama State by 152023: Alabama State by 52024: Alabama State by 52025: Alabama State by 1720032025
  • 2025Alabama State 52-35
  • 2024Alabama State 26-21
  • 2023Alabama State 19-14
  • 2022Alabama State 37-22
  • 2021Alabama State 38-24

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Bethune-Cookman’s chances here.

50-50Model · 39%Line · 29%Alabama StateBethune-Cookman

Alabama State favored by 7 · Total 51.5

How games like this usually go

Alabama State by 7, on the usual path until 0:31 left in the fourth

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward Bethune-Cookman.

opened +7.5now +7

The total fell 3 points.

opened 54.5now 51.5

Spread: +7.5 → +7 · Total: 54.5 → 51.5

The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Home-field advantage: Bottom third of FBS.

0% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (0-0 home, 0-13 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +5.0 at home vs. away over 47 games — inside the ±7.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 378 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.