South Carolina State University · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · South Carolina State University · low confidence
FCS Program Prestige · South Carolina State University2025 Celebration Bowl Victory
South Carolina State defeats Prairie View A&M 40–38 in 4 OT, winning the HBCU National Championship. Historic 21-point comeback from halftime deficit.
South Carolina State University10-3Hope-Doping·Offseason
South Carolina State is the 2025 HBCU National Champion—Celebration Bowl victors who staged a 21-point comeback in 4 OT against Prairie View A&M, proving the Bulldogs belong at the apex of Black college football.
Title DroughtSince 2024 · 1 yrs
The fanbase carries the swagger of champions now. The chip isn't grievance—it's proof. South Carolina State walked into the biggest game in HBCU football and won in 4 OT. No chip needed when you're th…
low signal
Approaching
23 days
until kickoff · vs Savannah State · Sat Aug 29 · 22:00 UTC
The experience
South Carolina State is the 2025 HBCU National Champion—Celebration Bowl victors who staged a 21-point comeback in 4 OT against Prairie View A&M, proving the Bulldogs belong at the apex of Black college football.
The Bulldogs are patient.
South Carolina State University · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 8-4
Base 10-2
Ceiling 12-0
floor8-4Competitive but likely outside the at-large field.
base10-2Conference title contender. Playoff bid realistic.
ceiling12-0Conference title + deep playoff run.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Hot
Five straight. The momentum tier on every blog right now.
Streak W8Last 5 · 5-0Last 10 · 8-2
The forecast
Opens Aug 29
vs Savannah State · at home
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] South Carolina State Defeats Howard 42-12
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
The Pulse on South Carolina State University
—
The Bulldogs are patient.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Bulldogs."
— South Carolina State University fanbase · recurring line
0 mentions · awaiting signal
Fanbase Health Index · South Carolina State University · low confidence
Growing (72)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 10-3 (77% win rate)72
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#23 / 138 · 84th pct32.4
Pts allowed/game#80 / 138 · 43rd pct27.2
All 19 stats
Other
H1 epa per play opponent#99 / 167 · 41st pct#52 / 70 · 27th pct0.20.0/gm
H1 epa per play#140 / 162 · 14th pct#69 / 70 · 3rd pct0.00.0
Red zone pass rate#148 / 154 · 5th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct0.20.0/gm
First down pass rate#176 / 215 · 19th pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct0.30.0/gm
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team70.5/gm#137 / 167 · 19th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#1 / 6 · 100th pct
Opp10.1/gm#1 / 166 · 100th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#1 / 6 · 100th pct
Red zone score %
Team57.1%57.1%#152 / 167 · 10th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#6 / 6 · 17th pct
Opp100.0%100.0%#160 / 166 · 4th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#5 / 6 · 33rd pct
Points / drive
Team0.90.1/gm#143 / 167 · 15th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#2 / 6 · 83rd pct
Opp30.2/gm#144 / 166 · 14th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#1 / 6 · 100th pct
Yards / drive
Team37.72.9/gm#110 / 167 · 35th pct#61 / 70 · 14th pct#1 / 6 · 100th pct
Opp423.2/gm#104 / 166 · 38th pct#53 / 70 · 26th pct#3 / 6 · 67th pct
Plays / drive
Team6.60.5/gm#82 / 167 · 52nd pct#44 / 70 · 39th pct#1 / 6 · 100th pct
Opp6.10.5/gm#26 / 166 · 85th pct#7 / 70 · 91st pct#3 / 6 · 67th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team26.9%26.9%#154 / 167 · 8th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#4 / 6 · 50th pct
Opp18.2%18.2%#24 / 166 · 86th pct#13 / 70 · 83rd pct#6 / 6 · 17th pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Standard-downs success
Team41.1%41.1%#138 / 154 · 11th pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct
Opp55.4%55.4%#153 / 172 · 12th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Passing-downs success#143 / 153 · 7th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct22.6%22.6%
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
South Carolina State University · 2025 schedule & results10-3Hard slateAverage opponent win rate 45% · 2 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #150 | #210 | -9.5 | Wofford | W 16–15 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #190 | #14 | +42.5 | @South Carolina | L 10–38 118 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #139 | #188 | -18 | Bethune-Cookman | W 55–41 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #146 | #20 | +35.5 | @South Florida | L 14–63 134 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #165 | #240 | -10.5 | @Charleston Southern | L 24–31 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #174 | #336 | — | Savannah State | W 49–6 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #164 | #260 | -9.5 | @North Carolina A&T | W 22–16 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #159 | #253 | -14.5 | @Norfolk State | W 51–20 | 5-3 | 1-0 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #147 | #216 | -11.5 | Morgan State | W 36–30 | 6-3 | 2-0 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #153 | #232 | -15.5 | Howard | W 42–12 | 7-3 | 3-0 |
| 12 | Nov 14 | #135 | #145 | +7 | @North Carolina Central | W 34–27 | 8-3 | 4-0 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #121 | #167 | -5.5 | @Delaware State | W 28–17 | 9-3 | 5-0 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 16 | Dec 13 | #114 | #95 | +3 | Prairie View A&M (N) | W 40–38 | 10-3 | 5-0 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13 | Prairie View A&M | W 40–38 | — | — | — | +0.079 | 35.6% | 150.0% | One-score win |
| Nov 22 | @Delaware State | W 28–17 | — | — | — | +0.103 | 38.3% | 135.8% | |
| Nov 14 | @North Carolina Central | W 34–27 | — | — | — | +0.055 | 43.6% | 137.6% | One-score win |
| Nov 8 | Howard | W 42–12 | — | — | — | +0.318 | 41.8% | 151.7% | Most explosive |
| Nov 1 | Morgan State | W 36–30 | — | — | — | +0.323 | 47.8% | 137.3% | One-score win |
| Oct 25 | @Norfolk State | W 51–20 | — | — | — | +0.441 | 50.0% | 149.3% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 11 | @North Carolina A&T | W 22–16 | — | — | — | +0.115 | 41.3% | 124.0% | One-score win |
| Oct 4 | Savannah State | W 49–6 | — | — | — | +0.274 | 46.2% | 144.3% | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 27 | @Charleston Southern | L 24–31 | — | — | — | +0.206 | 48.6% | 117.8% | One-score loss |
| Sep 20 | @South Florida | L 14–63 | 305 | 1 | 43:07 | -0.232 | 34.6% | 131.8% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 13 | Bethune-Cookman | W 55–41 | — | — | — | +0.399 | 57.9% | 116.3% | Best success rate |
| Sep 6 | @South Carolina | L 10–38 | 270 | 1 | 34:39 | -0.127 | 36.1% | 121.2% | Blowout loss |
| Aug 30 | Wofford | W 16–15 | — | — | — | -0.022 | 43.0% | 109.4% | One-score win |
| Season average (13 games) | 288 | 1.0 | +0.149 | 43.4% | 132.8% | ||||
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does South Carolina State University hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
10th percentile success on standard downs, 3rd on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Schedule mirage
How much of South Carolina State University's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.15; 73rd percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.05. The widest gap came in week 21: 0.15 raw vs. 0.05 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · South Carolina State University · 2018-present
Elite
68% home win rate vs 50% on the road. margin runs +17.2 better at home. Oliver C. Dawson Stadium seats 22,000, averaging 61% full (13,332 attendance, 10 games reported).
Home24-11Away21-21
Venue texture
74°F average kickoff temp; 12% of games had measurable precipitation; 8 mph average wind.
Based on 24 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · South Carolina State University
Mid-Major Contender
All-Time Record
159-91
since 1977 · 23 seasons · .636 win rate
HOME
78-27
AWAY
61-62
NEUTRAL
20-2
1970s
2000s
2010s
2020s
MEAC Standing · 2025
1st in the MEAC
South Carolina State University sits at the top of the MEAC at 5-0. Everyone else is chasing.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Carolina State | 5-0 |
| 2 | Delaware State | 4-1 |
| 3 | North Carolina Central | 3-2 |
| 4 | Howard | 2-3 |
| 5 | Morgan State | 1-4 |
| 6 | Norfolk State | 0-5 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2025
Perfect MEAC Season (5–0)
SC State wins the MEAC conference championship outright with an undefeated conference record
Moment of the Year · South Carolina State University · 2025
Moment of the Year · South Carolina State University · 2025Lost 10-38 at South Carolina
Week 2 of 2025. A reckoning loss — the data point the next season must answer.
Playoff History
Playoff HistoryRecent postseason (2021-2025): 2-1
Most recent: 2025 — win 38-40 (away). Last 5 postseason: 2-1.
202520242021
FCS → NFL Pipeline
2022–2022
FCS → NFL PipelineDeveloping
1 picks last 5 cycles. The pipeline is real but still building volume.
1
picks · last 5 yrs
#142
Decobie Durant
Cornerback · 2022 · Los Angeles
#120 all-time · 1 first-round picksthe talent factory →
r/cfb moments
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