The Citadel upsets South Carolina State 34-31
Team pages: The Citadel · South Carolina State
The Citadel beat South Carolina State 34-31 as a 17.5-point underdog, after its win chance fell to 6%. Share this game
Winners have been down to 6% or less in about 1 of every 20 games since 2018.
Next: The Citadel lost to East Tennessee State 34-16, Sat Oct 10
Next: South Carolina State lost to Charleston Southern 49-39, Sat Oct 10
How it swung
The turning point: Kiely 31-yd field goal, The Citadel goes ahead 34-31 (Q4, 0:00). The Citadel went from 62% to 100% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave The Citadel a 5% chance, and the closing betting line (The Citadel was a 17.5-point underdog) put it at 8%.
The Citadel 34-31 South Carolina State
The Citadel wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.South Carolina State 31-34 The CitadelSouth Carolina State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 0:23Hayes 8-yd TD pass to Garcia, The Citadel goes ahead 17-10The Citadel 23% → 47% (+24)
- 2Q4 0:00Kiely 31-yd field goal, The Citadel goes ahead 34-31The Citadel 62% → 100% (+38)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 0:23Hayes 8-yd TD pass to Garcia, The Citadel goes ahead 17-10South Carolina State 77% → 53% (−24)
- 2Q4 0:00Kiely 31-yd field goal, The Citadel goes ahead 34-31South Carolina State 38% → 0% (−38)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (South Carolina State -17.5), at 10% for The Citadel (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
The Citadel scored on 6 of its 12 drives; South Carolina State on 5 of its 12.
The Citadel’s drives are teal, South Carolina State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From South Carolina State’s side
South Carolina State’s best moment: Watson 21-yd TD pass to Pickett-Hicks, cuts it to 31-24 (Q3 0:31). It lifted South Carolina State’s win chance by 17 points.
The winner fell to 6%.
Box score
The Citadel 34, South Carolina State 31
The Citadel covered +17.5 by 20.5. The total, 65, went over 48.5.
The Citadel leaders
- Passing Quentin Hayes 7 of 12, 127 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Gavin Garcia 18 for 167 yds, 2 TD; Quentin Hayes 11 for 56 yds
- Receiving Damir Abdullah 3 for 84 yds, 1 TD; Whit Hobgood 2 for 59 yds
South Carolina State leaders
- Passing Keely Watson 20 of 31, 245 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Mason Pickett-Hicks 15 for 90 yds, 1 TD; Josh Shaw 9 for 14 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving DJ Maultsby 3 for 79 yds, 1 TD; Malaqhi Jones 6 for 58 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last 4 games
The Citadel · 1-3
Rated 203rd in our preseason ratings, 224th now.
1-3 in its last 4, including a 2-point win over Charlotte as a 20.5-point underdog.
W 43-41 @ Charlotte #179 of 668
won by 2 as a 20.5-point underdog
Last three games
South Carolina State · 5-0
Rated 129th in our preseason ratings, 116th now, up 13 spots.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 31-21 @ Bethune-Cookman #182 of 668
won by 10 as a 17.5-point favorite
W 66-0 vs Virginia State #275 of 668
W 31-13 @ Florida A&M #211 of 668
won by 18 as a 19.5-point favorite
W 87-0 vs Savannah State #296 of 668
Week by week
South Carolina State
- Wk 1Wvs Savannah State87-0
- Wk 1Wat Florida A&M31-13
- Wk 2Wvs Virginia State66-0
- Wk 3Wat Furman20-17
- Wk 4Wat Bethune-Cookman31-21
The Citadel
- Wk 1Lat Wofford14-42
- Wk 1Wat Charlotte43-41
- Wk 2Lvs Charleston Southern20-26
- Wk 4Lvs Chattanooga8-27
Power rating by week
South Carolina State is rated 6.6 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
South Carolina State leads the series 2-0
2 meetings since 2023 · South Carolina State has won the last 2
- 2024South Carolina State 23-20
- 2023South Carolina State 31-10
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line agree on South Carolina State’s chances here.
South Carolina State favored by 17.5 · Total 48.5
How games like this usually go
South Carolina State by 17.5, on the usual path until Q2 4:04
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 3 points toward The Citadel.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: −20.5 → −17.5 · Total: 47.5 → 48.5
The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Home-field advantage: Bottom third of FBS.
0% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (0-0 home, 0-12 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.3 at home vs. away over 47 games — inside the ±8.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 71 miles to get here.