Next game
at Johnson C. Smith
Sat Oct 31 · 1 pm ET
Irwin Belk Complex · series 0-2, lost the last 2
Virginia State 44% to win · our ratings after 8 games
Virginia State
7-1CIAA · Rogers Stadium (VA) · 7,909 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
W 76-13 at Shaw
Our model gave Virginia State 84% before kickoff
LeadersPassing Rahsaan Matthews Jr. 59 · Rushing Brandon Rose 51 · Receiving Vincent Ordenes 19 All player stats
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line at Johnson C. Smith · our model 44% Virginia State
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Virginia State · 2026 schedule and results7-1Soft slateAverage opponent win rate 31%.Our rank entering each game: #295 to #273
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 27 | #295 | #419 | — | Barton | W 44-17 | 1-0 | 0-0 | |
| 1 | Sep 5 | #295 | #345 | — | Bowie State | W 42-13 | 2-0 | 1-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #300 | #134 | — | @South Carolina State | L 0-66 | 2-1 | 1-0 | Pass Matthews Jr. 59 · Rush Rose 51 · Rec Ordenes 19 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #275 | #343 | — | @Elizabeth City State | W 28-14 | 3-1 | 2-0 | |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #272 | #377 | — | Winston-Salem State | W 49-19 | 4-1 | 3-0 | |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #271 | #413 | — | @Lincoln (PA) | W 42-32 | 5-1 | 4-0 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #272 | #405 | — | Livingstone | W 59-7 | 6-1 | 5-0 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #273 | #397 | — | @Shaw | W 76-13 | 7-1 | 6-0 | |
| 8 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #267 | #279 | @Johnson C. Smith | 1 pm ET44% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Virginia Union | 1 pm ET59% to win | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Virginia State, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Virginia State: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
What’s ahead
Off this week
7 days
until kickoff · at Johnson C. Smith · Sat Oct 31 · 1 pm ET
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Virginia State has won five straight.
8-2 over the last 10, and won the last five.
Streak W5Last 5 · 5-0Last 10 · 8-2
Range of outcomes · Virginia State · 2026
Range of outcomes · Virginia State · 2026Virginia State’s most likely season is 11-1, conference title contender. The floor is 9-3; the ceiling is 11-1.
Floor 9-3Ceiling 11-1Base 11-1
7 wins12 wins
What each outcome looks like
Floor9-3Competitive but likely outside bracket contention.
Base11-1Conference title contender. Bracket bid realistic.
Ceiling11-1Deep playoff run. Program-defining year.
No season-path projection for this program yet, so this is the 7-1 record so far plus the 4 games left, with a two-win swing down and a three-win swing up.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 7-1
Game feel65shootoutscombined pts / game1st highest-scoring of 11 in the CIAA
Heart rate0-0rarely closein one-score games (0 of 8)10th most one-score games of 11 in the CIAA
Margin+19.9comfortableavg scoring margin2nd best margin of 11 in the CIAA
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among CIAA teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
Virginia State enters the 2026 season at 7-1.
2026 Record7-1
Game day
The experience
Virginia State is the CIAA program known for the trojans.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site