CIAA CONFERENCE · 2025 SEASON BASELINE · 2026 OUTLOOK
Virginia St
Rank #289
Team Mood Card — Offseason Mode
Virginia St fan conversation is quiet right now.
The Mood Card lights up during the season, when live fan, national, and rival chatter clears the publish gate. In the offseason we hold the frame open rather than print fake precision. Live signal returns once weekly conversation volume rebuilds.
Cohort Signal
Not enough fan conversation has cleared this week's publish threshold yet (we wait for ≥30 weighted posts before showing a number). How we set the bar ›
Fanbase Archetype
How this fanbase sorts in the Fan Intelligence taxonomy (N° 04 on the Hub).
Fanbase Archetype
The Quiet Professional
Primary: 72% confidence
Fanbases with no delusions. They know exactly who their team is: good enough to win 8-10 games, not good enough to win it all. They are at peace with this.
SIGNATURE PHRASE
“We know what we are”
MODIFIERS
· Entrenched
5-Season Migration
Performance Narrative
Season Rating Journey
One line tells the story. Hover or tap any marker to see the exact game and how many power points it moved the rating. Larger markers mean bigger swings.
Rating rose
Rating fell
Little movement
Ring shows opponent level
Result
--
Power Swing
--
Rating Path
--
Week 2 · @ Norfolk State
Week 7 · @ Bowie State
Week 8 · vs Elizabeth City State
Betting Lens
Market context is a second read on the season: how often this team rewarded believers, disappointed them, or played into totals differently than expected.
Efficiency Dashboard
Opponent-adjusted efficiency cards organized as a premium team dashboard.
Offense
21st pct
Defense
7th pct
Adjusted values: +0.00 offense, +0.01 defense
Sample: 1 opponent-adjusted games in the current build.
Offense
85th pct
Defense
98th pct
Adjusted values: -0.00 offense, -0.01 defense
Sample: 1 opponent-adjusted games in the current build.
Offense
0th pct
Defense
97th pct
Adjusted values: +0.01 offense, -0.02 defense
Sample: 1 opponent-adjusted games in the current build.
Offense
0th pct
Defense
0th pct
Adjusted values: +0.00 offense, +0.00 defense
Sample: 0 opponent-adjusted games in the current build.
Offense
0th pct
Defense
0th pct
Adjusted values: +0.00 offense, +0.00 defense
Sample: 0 opponent-adjusted games in the current build.
Offense
17th pct
Defense
91st pct
Adjusted values: +0.00 offense, -0.00 defense
Sample: 1 opponent-adjusted games in the current build.
Why The Model Has Them Here
A team page should explain the ranking, not just print it.
Power +0.7
Currently +0.7 versus the all-level average team on a neutral field. Defensive Efficiency currently grades around the 98th percentile.
Open the compare board or matchup studio to pressure-test this profile against the teams around it.
Resume 52
Body of work: best signal lost to Norfolk State 31-34. Closest call beat Wilson 35-7. 52nd percentile season.
Open the compare board or matchup studio to pressure-test this profile against the teams around it.
3-1 over the last 4 (W8 W9 W10 L11)
Last four games: 3-1 over the last 4 (W8 W9 W10 L11). Power is 5 points ahead of resume through the most recent season — the underlying strength rating outpaces what the body of work says.
Open the compare board or matchup studio to pressure-test this profile against the teams around it.
2025 Season
Biggest slice of the season so far: Regular Season at 6-4. Even if a bowl or playoff game lands in early 2026, it still belongs to this season page.
Open the compare board or matchup studio to pressure-test this profile against the teams around it.
Placement Context
This is where the team sits inside the all-level board, its own subdivision, and its own conference ecosystem.
Overall Board#289
Inside DII#24 of 163
Inside CIAA#5 of 11
Power+0.7pts vs avg NCAA team
Resume5252nd percentile season
Cross-Level NeighborHardin-Simmons
Use these shortcuts to jump from this team to the neighbors that best explain its place on the board, including the closest cross-level comparison.
Closest Neighbors
The quickest way to explain a ranking is often to show the teams immediately around it.
Overall Ahead
Power +0.0 | Resume -17
#288 Livingstone
DII | CIAA
Overall Behind
Power -0.0 | Resume -13
#290 Savannah St
DII | SIAC
DII Ahead
Power +0.0 | Resume -17
#288 Livingstone
DII | CIAA
CIAA Ahead
Power +0.0 | Resume -17
#288 Livingstone
DII | CIAA
Cross-Level Neighbor
Power -0.2 | Resume +21
#299 Hardin-Simmons
DIII | American Southwest
Historical Snapshot
Fans should be able to see the short version immediately: how big the loaded sample is, what this program's standard looks like, and where the current season sits inside that arc.
Program Arc
Bars track win rate. The line tracks end-of-season power, so users can see whether the program is actually getting stronger or just stacking wins.
Season Phase Split
How this season breaks apart inside the same year-defined competitive cycle.
Regular Season 6-4 in 10 games
| Phase | Record | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Regular Season | 6-4 | 10 |
Loaded History Signals
This is the fastest way to explain what the last few seasons say about the program, and why prior success should matter in the next preseason cycle.
Impact Cards
A card-based alternate view of the same rating swings for fans who want the season game by game.
Week 11
Regular Season
@ Virginia Union
Result
Loss
Pregame
-12.80
Power
+0.19
Resume
-0.04
Postgame
-12.61
Week 10
Regular Season
vs Lincoln (PA)
Result
Win
Pregame
-13.40
Power
+0.59
Resume
+0.05
Postgame
-12.80
Week 9
Regular Season
vs Bluefield State
Result
Win
Pregame
-13.84
Power
+0.44
Resume
+0.06
Postgame
-13.40
Week 8
Regular Season
vs Elizabeth City State
Result
Win
Pregame
-14.48
Power
+0.65
Resume
+0.01
Postgame
-13.84
Week 7
Regular Season
@ Bowie State
Result
Win
Pregame
-15.62
Power
+1.13
Resume
+0.07
Postgame
-14.48
Week 6
Regular Season
vs Johnson C Smith
Result
Loss
Pregame
-15.67
Power
+0.06
Resume
-0.13
Postgame
-15.62
Week 5
Regular Season
@ Fayetteville State
Result
Loss
Pregame
-15.65
Power
-0.02
Resume
-0.35
Postgame
-15.67
Week 4
Regular Season
@ Winston-Salem
Result
Win
Pregame
-15.92
Power
+0.27
Resume
-0.01
Postgame
-15.65
Week 2
Regular Season
@ Norfolk State
Result
Loss
Pregame
-18.88
Power
+2.64
Resume
-0.32
Postgame
-16.23
Week 1
Regular Season
@ Wilson
Result
Win
Pregame
-18.48
Power
-0.40
Resume
+0.00
Postgame
-18.88
2025 Season Schedule And Rating Movement
Every result, every phase, and how the rating changed because of it.
| Week | Date | Game | Phase | Result | Close | ATS | Total | Pregame | Power Change | Resume Change | Postgame |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 28, 2025 | @ Wilson DII | Regular Season | W 35-7 | -- | -- | -- | -18.48 | -0.40 | +0.00 | -18.88 |
| 2 | Sep 6, 2025 | @ Norfolk State FCS | Regular Season | L 31-34 | -- | -- | -- | -18.88 | +2.64 | -0.32 | -16.23 |
| 4 | Sep 20, 2025 | @ Winston-Salem DII | Regular Season | W 34-33 | -- | -- | -- | -15.92 | +0.27 | -0.01 | -15.65 |
| 5 | Sep 27, 2025 | @ Fayetteville State DII | Regular Season | L 14-34 | -- | -- | -- | -15.65 | -0.02 | -0.35 | -15.67 |
| 6 | Oct 4, 2025 | vs Johnson C Smith DII | Regular Season | L 20-31 | -- | -- | -- | -15.67 | +0.06 | -0.13 | -15.62 |
| 7 | Oct 11, 2025 | @ Bowie State DII | Regular Season | W 28-21 | -- | -- | -- | -15.62 | +1.13 | +0.07 | -14.48 |
| 8 | Oct 18, 2025 | vs Elizabeth City State DII | Regular Season | W 24-20 | -- | -- | -- | -14.48 | +0.65 | +0.01 | -13.84 |
| 9 | Oct 25, 2025 | vs Bluefield State DII | Regular Season | W 51-34 | -- | -- | -- | -13.84 | +0.44 | +0.06 | -13.40 |
| 10 | Nov 1, 2025 | vs Lincoln (PA) DII | Regular Season | W 35-14 | -- | -- | -- | -13.40 | +0.59 | +0.05 | -12.80 |
| 11 | Nov 8, 2025 | @ Virginia Union DII | Regular Season | L 3-14 | -- | -- | -- | -12.80 | +0.19 | -0.04 | -12.61 |
Year-By-Year Results
The competitive story by season, kept cleanly tied to the year each season began.
| Season | Lens | Record | Final Rank | End Power | End Resume | Games | Points For | Points Against | Margin |
|---|