Chattanooga · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · Chattanooga · medium confidence
FCS Program Prestige · Chattanooga2019
Five FCS playoff runs
Chattanooga establishes itself as a consistent FCS tournament contender
Chattanooga5-7Hope-Doping·Offseason
Chattanooga is the SoCon program that's made five FCS playoff runs in its history but hasn't won a championship — a perpetual almost-team chasing its first title since moving to the FCS.
Title DroughtSince 2015 · 10 yrs
In a conference where Furman won a national championship and Wofford has made ten playoff runs, Chattanooga is the perpetual tournament team that hasn't won when it matters most — and the room knows i…
offseason · quiet
Approaching
21 days
until kickoff · at West Georgia · Thu Aug 27 · 23:00 UTC
The experience
Chattanooga is the SoCon program that's made five FCS playoff runs in its history but hasn't won a championship — a perpetual almost-team chasing its first title since moving to the FCS.
The Mocs are patient.
Chattanooga · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 3-9
Base 5-7
Ceiling 8-4
floor3-9Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
base5-7Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
ceiling8-4Conference title race. Playoff bid in play.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Cooling
Two of five. Schedule has caught up.
Streak L2Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 5-5
The forecast
Opens Aug 27
vs West Georgia · away
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] Memphis Defeats Chattanooga 45-10
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
The Pulse on Chattanooga
—
The Mocs are patient.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Chattanooga"
— Chattanooga fanbase · recurring line
18 mentions · awaiting signal
Fanbase Health Index · Chattanooga · medium confidence
Growing (54)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 5-7 (42% win rate)53
Volume — 17 effective signal-N55
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
Chattanooga · 2025 schedule & results5-7Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 49% · 1 AP top-25 opponent on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #179 | #64 | +30.5 | @Memphis | L 10–45 117 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #148 | #121 | +5.5 | @Tennessee Tech | L 17–45 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #172 | #238 | -27.5 | Stetson | W 63–0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #162 | #91 | +27 | @Tarleton State | L 24–52 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #177 | #230 | -15.5 | The Citadel | L 10–28 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #210 | #252 | -8 | @VMI | W 21–14 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #200 | #149 | +4.5 | East Tennessee State | W 42–38 | 3-4 | 2-2 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #200 | #235 | -10 | @Samford | W 49–13 | 4-4 | 3-2 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #173 | #156 | +3.5 | Western Carolina | L 28–35 | 4-5 | 3-3 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #184 | #218 | -6 | Furman | W 45–28 | 5-5 | 4-3 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #177 | #99 | +15.5 | @Mercer | L 17–63 | 5-6 | 4-4 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #194 | #160 | +4.5 | @Wofford | L 13–35 | 5-7 | 4-5 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22 | @Wofford | L 13–35 | — | — | — | +0.047 | 42.9% | 117.2% | |
| Nov 15 | @Mercer | L 17–63 | — | — | — | -0.179 | 28.4% | 101.9% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Nov 8 | Furman | W 45–28 | — | — | — | +0.408 | 46.8% | 148.1% | |
| Nov 1 | Western Carolina | L 28–35 | — | — | — | +0.135 | 41.0% | 143.2% | One-score loss |
| Oct 25 | @Samford | W 49–13 | — | — | — | +0.294 | 40.0% | 164.1% | Blowout win |
| Oct 18 | East Tennessee State | W 42–38 | — | — | — | +0.459 | 50.0% | 140.9% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 4 | @VMI | W 21–14 | — | — | — | +0.077 | 42.6% | 121.5% | One-score win |
| Sep 27 | The Citadel | L 10–28 | — | — | — | +0.022 | 40.0% | 139.8% | |
| Sep 20 | @Tarleton State | L 24–52 | — | — | — | +0.159 | 38.0% | 165.6% | Blowout loss |
| Sep 13 | Stetson | W 63–0 | — | — | — | +0.329 | 46.8% | 173.1% | Most explosive |
| Aug 30 | @Memphis | L 10–45 | 232 | 2 | 31:33 | -0.119 | 37.5% | 106.3% | Blowout loss |
| Season average (11 games) | 232 | 2.0 | +0.148 | 41.3% | 138.3% | ||||
Schedule mirage
How much of Chattanooga's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.15; 52nd percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.03. The widest gap came in week 11: 0.20 raw vs. 0.06 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · Chattanooga · 2018-present
Strong
63% home win rate vs 46% on the road. margin runs +12.4 better at home. Finley Stadium seats 20,668, averaging 36% full (7,390 attendance, 10 games reported).
Home23-13Away22-25
Historical echo
Chattanooga’s breakout has happened before — and the 4 closest all held onto theirs.
Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.
Pittsburgh 2000–2005
kept climbing
Memphis 1960–1965
held the gain
Florida 1955–1960
kept climbing
North Carolina 1969–1974
kept climbing
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Venue texture
72°F average kickoff temp; 16% of games had measurable precipitation; 7 mph average wind.
Based on 25 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · Chattanooga
Power Program
All-Time Record
255-361-18
since 1904 · 113 seasons · .402 win rate
HOME
151-116-3
AWAY
103-242-15
NEUTRAL
1-3
1900s
1910s
1920s
1930s
1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Southern Standing · 2025
6th in the Southern
Chattanooga sits 6th of 10 in the Southern at 4-5. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mercer | 8-0 |
| 2 | Western Carolina | 6-2 |
| 3 | East Tennessee State | 5-3 |
| 4 | Wofford | 5-3 |
| 5 | Furman | 4-4 |
| 6 | Chattanooga | 4-5 |
| 7 | The Citadel | 3-5 |
| 8 | Tennessee Tech | 1-0 |
| 9 | Samford | 1-7 |
| 10 | VMI | 0-8 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2023 playoff appearance
10-3 season ends in first-round loss to rival Furman in the FCS playoffs
Heartbreak
Moment of the Year · Chattanooga · 2025
Moment of the Year · Chattanooga · 2025Won 63-0 vs Stetson
Week 3 of 2025. A statement margin. Recruiting boards re-rendered overnight.
Playoff History
Playoff HistoryRecent postseason (2023): 1-1
Most recent: 2023 — loss 26-7 (away). Last 5 postseason: 1-1.
20232023
FCS → NFL Pipeline
2022–2022
FCS → NFL PipelineDeveloping
1 picks last 5 cycles. The pipeline is real but still building volume.
1
picks · last 5 yrs
#29
Cole Strange
Offensive Guard · 2022 · New England
#137 all-time · 1 first-round picksthe talent factory →
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. AI-generated content is labeled and may contain factual errors. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site