VMI · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · VMI · medium confidence
FCS Program Prestige · VMI1981
The 39-Year Drought
VMI enters the longest losing streak in its history, ending in 2020
Wound
VMI1-11Hope-Doping·Offseason
VMI is the military college that finally broke through in 2020 after 39 years without a winning season — the Keydets are rebuilding under Danny Rocco, trying to prove the breakthrough wasn't a one-hit wonder.
Standard GapA 39-year playoff drought (1981-2020) that ended in breakthrough, follow…
The Keydets believe VMI has been chasing the Citadel in the Military Classic for 82 games and in SoCon competition for decades — and they see the 2020 breakthrough and the Rocco rebuild as the chance…
low signal
Approaching
23 days
until kickoff · at Idaho State · Sat Aug 29 · 22:00 UTC
The experience
VMI is the military college that finally broke through in 2020 after 39 years without a winning season — the Keydets are rebuilding under Danny Rocco, trying to prove the breakthrough wasn't a one-hit wonder.
Quiet weeks in Keydets country.
VMI · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 0-12
Base 1-11
Ceiling 4-8
floor0-12Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
base1-11Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
ceiling4-8Conference title race. Playoff bid in play.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Hibernating
Zero of five. Reset territory.
Streak L10Last 5 · 0-5Last 10 · 0-10
The forecast
Opens Aug 29
vs Idaho State · away
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] Navy Defeats VMI 52-7
[Game Thread] VMI @ Navy (12:00 PM ET)
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
The Pulse on VMI
—
Quiet weeks in Keydets country.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Keydets."
— VMI fanbase · recurring line
3 mentions · awaiting signal
Fanbase Health Index · VMI · medium confidence
Stable (36)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 1-11 (8% win rate)35
Volume — 2 effective signal-N38
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
VMI · 2025 schedule & results1-11Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 49% · 1 AP top-25 opponent on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #257 | #23 | +42 | @Navy | L 7–52 118 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #179 | #371 | — | Ferrum | W 42–7 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #249 | #194 | +8.5 | @Bucknell | L 28–35 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #242 | #175 | +17 | @Richmond | L 14–38 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #252 | #210 | +8 | Chattanooga | L 14–21 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #258 | #155 | +16.5 | @East Tennessee State | L 10–45 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #264 | #232 | +3.5 | Samford | L 22–24 | 1-6 | 0-3 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #263 | #110 | +27.5 | @Mercer | L 0–62 | 1-7 | 0-4 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #265 | #202 | +14 | @The Citadel | L 24–35 | 1-8 | 0-5 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #264 | #185 | +11 | Wofford | L 10–52 | 1-9 | 0-6 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #274 | #221 | +20.5 | @Furman | L 14–32 | 1-10 | 0-7 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #279 | #168 | +25.5 | Western Carolina | L 6–48 | 1-11 | 0-8 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22 | Western Carolina | L 6–48 | — | — | — | -0.040 | 31.5% | 118.6% | Blowout loss |
| Nov 15 | @Furman | L 14–32 | — | — | — | +0.042 | 28.8% | 145.8% | |
| Nov 8 | Wofford | L 10–52 | — | — | — | -0.199 | 23.1% | 124.2% | Blowout loss |
| Nov 1 | @The Citadel | L 24–35 | — | — | — | +0.376 | 50.0% | 119.3% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 25 | @Mercer | L 0–62 | — | — | — | -0.287 | 15.5% | 192.4% | Most explosive |
| Oct 18 | Samford | L 22–24 | — | — | — | +0.310 | 42.0% | 146.0% | One-score loss |
| Oct 11 | @East Tennessee State | L 10–45 | — | — | — | -0.373 | 15.5% | 88.9% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 4 | Chattanooga | L 14–21 | — | — | — | -0.163 | 27.9% | 124.6% | One-score loss |
| Sep 20 | @Richmond | L 14–38 | — | — | — | +0.117 | 35.1% | 122.8% | |
| Sep 13 | @Bucknell | L 28–35 | — | — | — | +0.271 | 36.4% | 162.5% | One-score loss |
| Sep 6 | Ferrum | W 42–7 | — | — | — | +0.292 | 39.1% | 163.3% | Best defensive stand |
| Aug 30 | @Navy | L 7–52 | 212 | 0 | 24:33 | +0.011 | 28.0% | 159.9% | Blowout loss |
| Season average (12 games) | 212 | 0.0 | +0.030 | 31.1% | 139.0% | ||||
Schedule mirage
How much of VMI's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.03; 8th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's -0.01. The widest gap came in week 3: 0.19 raw vs. 0.05 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · VMI · 2018-present
Elite
36% home win rate vs 13% on the road. margin runs +16.1 better at home. Alumni Memorial Field seats 10,000, averaging 41% full (4,134 attendance, 9 games reported).
Home14-24Away6-37
Venue texture
66°F average kickoff temp; 10% of games had measurable precipitation; 4 mph average wind.
Based on 10 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · VMI
Power Program
All-Time Record
361-572-34
since 1898 · 117 seasons · .373 win rate
HOME
240-170-18
AWAY
121-395-16
NEUTRAL
0-7
1890s
1900s
1910s
1920s
1930s
1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Southern Standing · 2025
10th in the Southern
VMI is 10th of 10 in the Southern at 0-8. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on playoff positioning and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mercer | 8-0 |
| 2 | Western Carolina | 6-2 |
| 3 | East Tennessee State | 5-3 |
| 4 | Wofford | 5-3 |
| 5 | Furman | 4-4 |
| 6 | Chattanooga | 4-5 |
| 7 | The Citadel | 3-5 |
| 8 | Tennessee Tech | 1-0 |
| 9 | Samford | 1-7 |
| 10 | VMI | 0-8 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2020 Breakthrough
VMI posts its first winning season in 39 years, ending a historic drought
Miracle
Moment of the Year · VMI · 2025
Moment of the Year · VMI · 2025Won 42-7 vs Ferrum
Week 2 of 2025. A statement margin. Recruiting boards re-rendered overnight.
Playoff History
Playoff HistoryRecent postseason (2020): 0-1
Most recent: 2020 — loss 31-24 (away). Last 5 postseason: 0-1.
2020
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