Bucknell beats VMI 14-3
Bucknell beat VMI 14-3. Share this game
We had Bucknell favored. It won.
Next: Bucknell lost to Pennsylvania 20-7, Sat Sep 19
Next: VMI lost to Davidson 27-24, Sat Sep 19
How it swung
The turning point: Dietrich 27-yd TD pass to Nowinski, Bucknell goes ahead 7-3 (Q4, 6:51). Bucknell went from 54% to 73% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Bucknell a 58% chance, and the closing betting line (Bucknell was a 8.5-point favorite) put it at 75%.
A tight one: Bucknell bottomed out at 37% and won.
VMI never had better than a 63% chance.
Bucknell 14-3 VMI
Bucknell wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.VMI 3-14 BucknellVMI lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 6:51Dietrich 27-yd TD pass to Nowinski, Bucknell goes ahead 7-3Bucknell 54% → 73% (+19)
- 2Q4 2:19Cadden 8-yd TD run, Bucknell leads 14-3Bucknell 84% → 96% (+12)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 6:51Dietrich 27-yd TD pass to Nowinski, Bucknell goes ahead 7-3VMI 46% → 27% (−19)
- 2Q4 2:19Cadden 8-yd TD run, Bucknell leads 14-3VMI 16% → 4% (−12)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Bucknell -8.5), at 69% for Bucknell (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Bucknell scored on 2 of its 10 drives; VMI on 1 of its 9.
Bucknell’s drives are teal, VMI’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From VMI’s side
VMI’s best moment: Reynolds 23-yd pass to Slaughter (Q1 2:45). It lifted VMI’s win chance by 11 points.
Too close to call on 63% of plays.
Box score
Bucknell 14, VMI 3
Bucknell covered −8.5 by 2.5. The total, 17, stayed under 47.5.
Bucknell leaders
- Passing Chris Dietrich 22 of 30, 221 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Michael Cadden 14 for 70 yds, 1 TD; Ty Brown-Stauffer 10 for 60 yds
- Receiving Kaleb Lampkins 1 for 46 yds; Jerry Harrison 5 for 45 yds
VMI leaders
- Passing Ian Reynolds 11 of 27, 155 yds, 1 INT
- Rushing Ian Reynolds 7 for 26 yds; Traveion Slaughter 7 for 20 yds
- Receiving Cade Cox 3 for 49 yds; Traveion Slaughter 2 for 31 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last two games
Bucknell · 0-2
Rated 236th in our preseason ratings, 233rd now.
Two straight losses.
Last two games
VMI · 0-2
Rated 265th in our preseason ratings, 266th now.
Two straight losses, each by 20 or more.
L 10-38 @ Idaho State #141 of 668
lost by 28 as a 34.5-point underdog
Week by week
VMI
- Wk 1Lat Idaho State10-38
- Wk 1Lat Virginia Tech3-73
Bucknell
- Wk 1Lat Richmond14-35
- Wk 1Lvs Villanova16-17
The series
Bucknell leads the series 6-3
9 meetings since 1978 · Bucknell has won the last 3
- 2025Bucknell 35-28
- 2024Bucknell 35-28
- 2023Bucknell 21-13
- 2022VMI 24-14
- 2016VMI 23-17
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on VMI’s chances here.
Bucknell favored by 8.5 · Total 47.5
How games like this usually go
Bucknell by 8.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward VMI.
Spread: +10.5 → +8.5
The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Home-field advantage: Bottom third of FBS.
0% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (0-0 home, 0-11 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.8 at home vs. away over 53 games — inside the ±7.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 257 miles to get here.