Villanova beats Bucknell 17-16
Villanova beat Bucknell 17-16. Share this game
We had Villanova favored. It won.
How it swung
The turning point: Garanton 29-yd field goal no good (Q4, 1:57). Villanova went from 73% to 94% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Villanova a 58% chance, and the closing betting line (Villanova was a 22.5-point favorite) put it at 97%.
Favored the whole way: Villanova never fell below 71%.
Bucknell never had better than a 28% chance.
Villanova 17-16 Bucknell
Villanova wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Bucknell 16-17 VillanovaBucknell lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The play that swung it
- 1Q4 1:57Garanton 29-yd field goal no goodVillanova 73% → 94% (+21)
The play that swung it
- 1Q4 1:57Garanton 29-yd field goal no goodBucknell 27% → 6% (−21)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Villanova -22.5), at 91% for Villanova (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Villanova scored on 3 of its 10 drives; Bucknell on 3 of its 9.
Villanova’s drives are teal, Bucknell’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
Box score
Villanova 17, Bucknell 16
Bucknell covered +22.5 by 21.5. The total, 33, stayed under 54.5.
Villanova leaders
- Passing Pat McQuaide 13 of 20, 218 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Ja'briel Mace 13 for 70 yds; Isaiah Ragland 13 for 42 yds
- Receiving Brandon Binkowski 3 for 71 yds; Braden Reed 5 for 68 yds, 2 TD
Bucknell leaders
- Passing Chris Dietrich 29 of 39, 245 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Michael Cadden 9 for 37 yds; Chris Dietrich 12 for 16 yds
- Receiving Sam Milligan 13 for 135 yds, 2 TD; TJ Cadden 7 for 52 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games · 2025 season
Villanova · 12-3
Rated 137th in our preseason ratings, 137th now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 5-point win over Tarleton State as a 14.5-point underdog.
L 14-30 vs Illinois State #82 of 667
lost by 16 as a 1.5-point favorite
W 26-21 @ Tarleton State #70 of 667
won by 5 as a 14.5-point underdog
W 14-7 @ Lehigh #92 of 667
W 52-7 vs Harvard #154 of 667
won by 45 as a 2-point underdog
W 34-10 vs Sacred Heart #206 of 667
won by 24 as a 16-point favorite
W 30-27 vs Stony Brook #167 of 667
won by 3 as a 10.5-point favorite
W 28-10 @ Towson #188 of 667
won by 18 as a 3.5-point favorite
W 29-16 vs UAlbany #240 of 667
won by 13 as a 31.5-point favorite
W 56-14 vs Hampton #260 of 667
won by 42 as a 24.5-point favorite
W 29-21 @ Elon #149 of 667
won by 8 as a 6.5-point favorite
W 37-7 @ New Hampshire #194 of 667
won by 30 as a 5.5-point favorite
W 31-24 vs William & Mary #171 of 667
won by 7 as a 6.5-point favorite
L 33-51 @ Monmouth #145 of 667
lost by 18 as a 3.5-point underdog
L 6-52 @ Penn StateTop 25 #8 of 667
lost by 46 as a 47.5-point underdog
W 24-17 vs Colgate #250 of 667
won by 7 as a 20-point favorite
Last three games · 2025 season
Bucknell · 5-7
Rated 236th in our preseason ratings, 236th now.
1-2 in its last three, including a 18-point win over Fordham as a 3.5-point underdog.
L 19-38 @ Colgate #208 of 667
lost by 19 as a 9.5-point underdog
L 20-37 vs Holy Cross #204 of 667
lost by 17 as a 2.5-point favorite
W 37-19 @ Fordham #254 of 667
won by 18 as a 3.5-point underdog
L 24-31 vs Georgetown #228 of 667
lost by 7 as a 1.5-point favorite
L 20-30 @ Cornell #239 of 667
lost by 10 as a 4-point underdog
L 24-62 @ Lafayette #164 of 667
lost by 38 as a 10-point underdog
W 33-28 vs Richmond #165 of 667
won by 5 as a 5-point underdog
W 30-23 vs Saint Francis #256 of 667
won by 7 as an 18.5-point favorite
L 24-41 vs Lehigh #154 of 667
lost by 17 as a 14-point underdog
W 35-28 vs VMI #254 of 667
won by 7 as an 8.5-point favorite
W 34-23 @ Marist #260 of 667
won by 11 as a 12-point favorite
L 13-49 @ Air Force #123 of 667
lost by 36 as a 30.5-point underdog
Week by week
Bucknell
- Wk 1Lat Richmond14-35
Villanova
- Wk 1Lvs William & Mary32-35
The series
Villanova leads the series 10-9-2
21 meetings since 1900 · Villanova has won the last 6
- 2021Villanova 55-3
- 2019Villanova 45-10
- 2018Villanova 49-7
- 2005Villanova 38-10
- 2004 · neutral siteVillanova 20-14
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Bucknell’s chances here.
Villanova favored by 22.5 · Total 54.5
How games like this usually go
Villanova by 22.5: the game against the usual path
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.
The market
The spread moved 4 points toward Bucknell.
The total fell 2 points.
Spread: +26.5 → +22.5 · Total: 56.5 → 54.5
The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Home-field advantage: Bottom third of FBS.
0% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (0-0 home, 0-7 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.6 at home vs. away over 51 games — inside the ±6.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 103 miles to get here.