Stony Brook · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · Stony Brook · medium confidence
FCS Program Prestige · Stony Brook2009-2012 Big South four-peat
Four straight Big South championships and the program's FCS playoff breakthrough era
Stony Brook6-6Hope-Doping·Offseason
Stony Brook went 0-10 in 2023, hired Billy Cosh, went 8-4 the next year, and finished 6-6 in 2025 — the Seawolves are the most dramatic FCS turnaround story in recent memory, still figuring out whether the Cosh era is a rebuild or the beginning of something real.
Standard GapA program with four straight Big South titles (2009-2012) and two FCS pl…
The room says Stony Brook won four straight conference titles, made multiple FCS playoff runs, and still gets treated as an afterthought from Long Island — that the 2023 collapse was a coaching proble…
offseason · quiet
Approaching
21 days
until kickoff · at Delaware State · Thu Aug 27 · 22:00 UTC
The experience
Stony Brook went 0-10 in 2023, hired Billy Cosh, went 8-4 the next year, and finished 6-6 in 2025 — the Seawolves are the most dramatic FCS turnaround story in recent memory, still figuring out whether the Cosh era is a rebuild or the beginning of something real.
The Seawolves keep the faith.
Stony Brook · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 4-8
Base 6-6
Ceiling 9-3
floor4-8Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
base6-6Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
ceiling9-3Conference title race. Playoff bid in play.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Mixed
Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.
Streak W1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 6-4
The forecast
Opens Aug 27
vs Delaware State · away
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
The Pulse on Stony Brook
—
The Seawolves keep the faith.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Stony Brook"
— Stony Brook fanbase · recurring line
3 mentions · awaiting signal
Fanbase Health Index · Stony Brook · medium confidence
Stable (48)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 6-6 (50% win rate)58
Volume — 2 effective signal-N38
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#61 / 138 · 57th pct28.0
Pts allowed/game#72 / 138 · 49th pct25.8
All 4 stats
Other
First down pass rate#6 / 215 · 98th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct0.60.1/gm
H1 epa per play opponent#135 / 167 · 20th pct#63 / 70 · 11th pct0.30.0/gm
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Standard-downs success allowed#56 / 172 · 68th pct#30 / 70 · 59th pct46.0%46.0%
Power success allowed#129 / 141 · 9th pct#64 / 70 · 10th pct81.8%81.8%
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
Stony Brook · 2025 schedule & results6-6Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 46% · 0 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #187 | #81 | — | @San Diego State | L 0–42 83 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #161 | #178 | +7 | Rhode Island | L 17–31 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #192 | #221 | -4 | Fordham | W 41–18 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #198 | #196 | -3.5 | @Lindenwood | L 27–30 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #192 | #213 | -7 | Merrimack | W 35–10 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #173 | #213 | -7 | @UAlbany | W 47–12 | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #148 | #141 | +9 | @Monmouth | L 21–49 | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #168 | #201 | -3 | Towson | W 27–19 | 4-4 | 2-2 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #175 | #159 | +1 | @Maine | L 21–28 | 4-5 | 2-3 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #170 | #262 | -18.5 | North Carolina A&T | W 38–12 | 5-5 | 3-3 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #169 | #121 | +10.5 | @Villanova | L 27–30 | 5-6 | 3-3 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #166 | #252 | -18.5 | Bryant | W 35–28 | 6-6 | 4-3 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22 | Bryant | W 35–28 | — | — | — | +0.105 | 43.7% | 99.2% | One-score win |
| Nov 15 | @Villanova | L 27–30 | — | — | — | +0.077 | 43.5% | 110.6% | One-score loss |
| Nov 8 | North Carolina A&T | W 38–12 | — | — | — | +0.251 | 49.5% | 107.2% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Nov 1 | @Maine | L 21–28 | — | — | — | -0.001 | 34.9% | 129.9% | One-score loss |
| Oct 25 | Towson | W 27–19 | — | — | — | +0.090 | 39.0% | 103.1% | One-score win |
| Oct 18 | @Monmouth | L 21–49 | — | — | — | -0.013 | 43.2% | 106.9% | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 4 | @UAlbany | W 47–12 | — | — | — | +0.228 | 51.9% | 105.3% | Blowout win |
| Sep 27 | Merrimack | W 35–10 | — | — | — | +0.248 | 56.1% | 100.4% | Best success rate |
| Sep 20 | @Lindenwood | L 27–30 | — | — | — | +0.189 | 32.4% | 178.1% | Most explosive |
| Sep 13 | Fordham | W 41–18 | — | — | — | +0.248 | 46.0% | 103.3% | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 6 | Rhode Island | L 17–31 | — | — | — | +0.055 | 37.5% | 95.6% | |
| Aug 29 | @San Diego State | L 0–42 | — | — | — | -0.226 | 15.6% | 98.7% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Season average (12 games) | — | — | +0.104 | 41.1% | 111.5% | ||||
Schedule mirage
How much of Stony Brook's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.10; 45th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.02. The widest gap came in week 1: -0.23 raw vs. -0.01 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · Stony Brook · 2018-present
Elite
56% home win rate vs 26% on the road. margin runs +16.6 better at home. Kenneth P. LaValle Stadium seats 12,300, averaging 45% full (5,529 attendance, 12 games reported).
Home22-17Away11-30
Venue texture
64°F average kickoff temp; 15% of games had measurable precipitation; 11 mph average wind.
Based on 27 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · Stony Brook
National Program
All-Time Record
118-121-1
since 2003 · 22 seasons · .491 win rate
HOME
74-43
AWAY
36-68-1
NEUTRAL
8-10
2000s
2010s
2020s
CAA Standing · 2025
6th in the CAA
Stony Brook sits 6th of 13 in the CAA at 4-3. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rhode Island | 8-0 |
| 2 | New Hampshire | 5-1 |
| 3 | Maine | 5-2 |
| 4 | Monmouth | 5-2 |
| 5 | Elon | 4-2 |
| 6 | Stony Brook | 4-3 |
| 7 | Towson | 4-3 |
| 8 | Campbell | 2-5 |
| 9 | North Carolina A&T | 2-5 |
| 10 | UAlbany | 1-5 |
| 11 | Bryant | 1-7 |
| 12 | Sacred Heart | 0-0 |
| 13 | Hampton | 0-6 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2023 winless season
Stony Brook goes 0-10 — the nadir of the program's history and the end of the Priore era
Wound
2024 turnaround — 8-4
Billy Cosh's first season: from 0-10 to 8-4, the most dramatic FCS single-season turnaround in recent memory
Moment of the Year · Stony Brook · 2025
Moment of the Year · Stony Brook · 2025Won 41-18 vs Fordham
Week 3 of 2025. A statement margin. Recruiting boards re-rendered overnight.
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