Georgetown Hoyas · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · Georgetown Hoyas · medium confidence
FCS Program Prestige · Georgetown Hoyas1940 Orange Bowl
Georgetown reached the Orange Bowl, losing 14-7 to Mississippi State
Georgetown Hoyas6-6Hope-Doping·Offseason
Washington's historic institution slowly ascending from a half-century of football silence.
Title DroughtSince 1940 · 85 yrs
The chip is basketball's shadow. Georgetown basketball made 'Hoya Saxa' iconic; football gets to be the second sport on campus. The fanbase believes football can follow the same path basketball did.
offseason · quiet
Approaching
23 days
until kickoff · vs Lafayette · Sat Aug 29 · 23:00 UTC
The experience
Washington's historic institution slowly ascending from a half-century of football silence.
The Hoyas are patient.
Georgetown Hoyas · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 4-8
Base 6-6
Ceiling 9-3
floor4-8Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
base6-6Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
ceiling9-3Conference title race. Playoff bid in play.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Cooling
Two of five. Schedule has caught up.
Streak L1Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 4-6
The forecast
Opens Aug 29
vs Lafayette · at home
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
The Pulse on Georgetown Hoyas
—
The Hoyas are patient.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Georgetown"
— Georgetown Hoyas fanbase · recurring line
18 mentions · awaiting signal
Fanbase Health Index · Georgetown Hoyas · medium confidence
Growing (56)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 6-6 (50% win rate)58
Volume — 17 effective signal-N55
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
Georgetown Hoyas · 2025 schedule & results6-6Soft slateAverage opponent win rate 41% · 0 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #245 | #194 | -3.5 | @Davidson | W 51–14 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #231 | #185 | -16 | Wagner | W 31–20 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #235 | #187 | -1.5 | Lafayette | L 37–42 | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #230 | — | -3.5 | @Brown | L 0–46 | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #239 | #236 | +11.5 | @Columbia | L 10–19 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #241 | #222 | +2.5 | Morgan State | W 27–24 | 3-3 | 0-1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #238 | #207 | +7 | Colgate | W 21–17 | 4-3 | 1-1 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #234 | #239 | +1.5 | @Bucknell | W 31–24 | 5-3 | 2-1 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #228 | #120 | +24 | @Lehigh | L 0–41 | 5-4 | 2-2 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #233 | #199 | +5.5 | Richmond | L 24–31 | 5-5 | 2-3 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #234 | #257 | -5.5 | Fordham | W 14–0 | 6-5 | 3-3 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #228 | #204 | +5.5 | Holy Cross (N) | L 7–42 | 6-6 | 3-4 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22 | Holy Cross | L 7–42 | — | — | — | -0.598 | 36.5% | 95.1% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Nov 15 | Fordham | W 14–0 | — | — | — | -0.168 | 27.8% | 122.7% | Best defensive stand |
| Nov 8 | Richmond | L 24–31 | — | — | — | +0.088 | 38.4% | 128.1% | One-score loss |
| Nov 1 | @Lehigh | L 0–41 | — | — | — | -0.313 | 28.2% | 114.0% | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 25 | @Bucknell | W 31–24 | — | — | — | -0.021 | 40.3% | 104.7% | One-score win |
| Oct 18 | Colgate | W 21–17 | — | — | — | +0.165 | 41.0% | 128.0% | One-score win |
| Oct 4 | Morgan State | W 27–24 | — | — | — | +0.206 | 41.6% | 139.1% | One-score win |
| Sep 27 | @Columbia | L 10–19 | — | — | — | -0.206 | 25.8% | 141.0% | |
| Sep 20 | @Brown | L 0–46 | — | — | — | -0.127 | 29.5% | 129.7% | Blowout loss |
| Sep 13 | Lafayette | L 37–42 | — | — | — | +0.314 | 41.1% | 143.3% | One-score loss |
| Sep 6 | Wagner | W 31–20 | — | — | — | +0.149 | 38.3% | 151.6% | |
| Aug 30 | @Davidson | W 51–14 | — | — | — | +0.612 | 54.0% | 152.3% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (12 games) | — | — | +0.008 | 36.9% | 129.2% | ||||
Schedule mirage
How much of Georgetown Hoyas's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.01; 0th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's -0.03. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.61 raw vs. 0.08 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · Georgetown Hoyas · 2018-present
Above-Average
39% home win rate vs 39% on the road. margin runs +5.2 better at home. Cooper Field seats 3,750, averaging 65% full (2,420 attendance, 10 games reported).
Home15-23Away15-23
Historical echo
Georgetown Hoyas’s slide has precedent — and 1 of the 4 closest kept falling.
Programs whose stature fell in the same shape. The grey line is their decline; the color is what came next for them.
California 1994–1999
clawed back
Utah State 1981–1986
kept sliding
Kent State 1978–1983
stayed down
Rice 1964–1969
stayed down
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Venue texture
72°F average kickoff temp; 4% of games had measurable precipitation; 9 mph average wind.
Based on 28 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · Georgetown Hoyas
Power Program
All-Time Record
267-295-21
since 1891 · 74 seasons · .457 win rate
HOME
159-123-13
AWAY
108-159-8
NEUTRAL
0-13
1890s
1900s
1910s
1920s
1930s
1940s
1950s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Patriot Standing · 2025
5th in the Patriot
Georgetown Hoyas sits 5th of 10 in the Patriot at 3-4. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lehigh | 7-1 |
| 2 | Lafayette | 6-1 |
| 3 | Richmond | 4-4 |
| 4 | Villanova | 3-0 |
| 5 | Georgetown | 3-4 |
| 6 | Holy Cross | 3-4 |
| 7 | Colgate | 3-5 |
| 8 | Bucknell | 2-5 |
| 9 | Fordham | 1-6 |
| 10 | William & Mary | 0-2 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
1965
Bill Carpenter Era
Hall of Famer Bill Carpenter played for Georgetown, the most famous modern Georgetown player
Moment of the Year · Georgetown Hoyas · 2025
Moment of the Year · Georgetown Hoyas · 2025Won 51-14 at Davidson
Week 1 of 2025. A statement margin. Recruiting boards re-rendered overnight.
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