East Tennessee State beats The Citadel 34-16
Team pages: East Tennessee State · The Citadel
East Tennessee State beat The Citadel 34-16. Share this game
We had East Tennessee State favored. It won.
Next: East Tennessee State at VMI, Sat Oct 24 · 1:30 PM ET
How it swung
The turning point: Garcia fumbles, Gilmore returns it for a TD, cuts it to 10-7 (Q2, 13:14). East Tennessee State went from 26% to 51% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave East Tennessee State a 73% chance, and the closing betting line (East Tennessee State was a 7-point favorite) put it at 71%.
East Tennessee State came back from 10 down, at one point just a 26% chance in the second quarter.
The Citadel led by 10, was as high as 74% in the second quarter, and still lost.
East Tennessee State · Q3 10:03East Tennessee State 34-16 The Citadel
East Tennessee State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The Citadel 16-34 East Tennessee StateThe Citadel lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 13:14FumbleGarcia fumbles, Gilmore returns it for a TD, cuts it to 10-7East Tennessee State 26% → 51% (+25)
- 2Q3 9:03Special teamsPunt blocked and returned for a TD, East Tennessee State leads 20-10East Tennessee State 71% → 86% (+15)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 13:14FumbleGarcia fumbles, Gilmore returns it for a TD, cuts it to 10-7The Citadel 74% → 49% (−25)
- 2Q3 9:03Special teamsPunt blocked and returned for a TD, East Tennessee State leads 20-10The Citadel 29% → 14% (−15)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (East Tennessee State -7), at 71% for East Tennessee State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
East Tennessee State scored on 4 of its 10 drives; The Citadel on 3 of its 13.
East Tennessee State’s drives are teal, The Citadel’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From The Citadel’s side
The Citadel’s best moment: Hayes 17-yd TD run, The Citadel goes ahead 7-0 (Q1 6:31). It lifted The Citadel’s win chance by 12 points.
Box score
East Tennessee State 34, The Citadel 16
East Tennessee State covered −7 by 11. The total, 50, stayed under 55.5.
East Tennessee State leaders
- Passing Mason Mims 14 of 21, 143 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing TJ Peyton 9 for 110 yds, 1 TD; Jaiden Daniels 3 for 20 yds
- Receiving Suderian Harrison 5 for 85 yds; Jaiden Daniels 3 for 25 yds
The Citadel leaders
- Passing Xavier Hill 3 of 6, 81 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Gavin Garcia 19 for 70 yds; Quentin Hayes 8 for 37 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Braylon Knauth 3 for 73 yds; Abijah Webb 1 for 33 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
East Tennessee State · 4-2
Rated 125th in our preseason ratings, 156th now.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 14-3 vs Chattanooga #161 of 668
won by 11 as a 3-point favorite
W 58-31 vs Western Carolina #191 of 668
won by 27 as a 1.5-point favorite
W 35-27 vs West Georgia #248 of 668
won by 8 as a 16.5-point favorite
W 48-14 vs Tusculum #383 of 668
Last three games
The Citadel · 2-3
Rated 203rd in our preseason ratings, 222nd now.
1-2 in its last three, capped by a 3-point win over South Carolina State as a 17.5-point underdog.
Week by week
The Citadel
- Wk 1Lat Wofford14-42
- Wk 1Wat Charlotte43-41
- Wk 2Lvs Charleston Southern20-26
- Wk 4Lvs Chattanooga8-27
- Wk 5Wat South Carolina State34-31
East Tennessee State
- Wk 1Wvs Tusculum48-14
- Wk 2Lat North Carolina3-35
- Wk 3Wvs West Georgia35-27
- Wk 4Wvs Western Carolina58-31
- Wk 5Wvs Chattanooga14-3
Power rating by week
East Tennessee State is rated 4.0 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
East Tennessee State leads the series 7-5
12 meetings since 1966 · East Tennessee State has won the last 3
- 2025East Tennessee State 28-26
- 2024East Tennessee State 34-17
- 2023East Tennessee State 35-23
- 2022The Citadel 20-17
- 2021East Tennessee State 48-21
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line agree on The Citadel’s chances here.
East Tennessee State favored by 7 · Total 55.5
How games like this usually go
East Tennessee State by 7, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 4.5 points toward The Citadel.
The total rose 5 points.
Spread: +11.5 → +7 · Total: 50.5 → 55.5
The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
The Citadel has been 4.4 points worse at home than on the road since 2018 — worse at home, 0th percentile.
0% at home, 17% on the road against FBS opponents (0-1 home, 2-10 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -9.6 at home vs. away over 50 games — outside the ±7.8 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.
The visitors travel about 279 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- The Citadel10th0-2
- East Tennessee State2nd2-0