East Tennessee State at North Carolina
How they got here
Last two games
East Tennessee State · 1-1
Picked #126 in the preseason · now #190.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games · 2025 season
North Carolina · 4-8
Picked #136 in the preseason · now #105 — better than expected.
Three straight losses.
L 19–42 @ NC State #44 of 668
lost by 23 as a 7.5-point underdog
L 25–32 vs Duke #75 of 668
lost by 7 as a 7-point underdog
L 12–28 @ Wake Forest #60 of 668
lost by 16 as a 3.5-point underdog
W 20–15 vs Stanford #122 of 668
won by 5 as a 8.5-point favorite
W 27–10 @ Syracuse #133 of 668
won by 17 as a 1.5-point underdog
L 16–17 vs VirginiaTop 25 #52 of 668
lost by 1 as a 11-point underdog
L 18–21 @ California #82 of 668
lost by 3 as a 8.5-point underdog
L 10–38 vs ClemsonTop 25 #16 of 668
lost by 28 as a 14.5-point underdog
L 9–34 @ UCF #80 of 668
lost by 25 as a 7.5-point underdog
W 41–6 vs Richmond #175 of 668
won by 35 as a 24.5-point favorite
W 20–3 @ Charlotte #237 of 668
won by 17 as a 15-point favorite
L 14–48 vs TCUTop 25 #41 of 668
lost by 34 as a 3.5-point underdog
What’s at stake
East Tennessee State
- East Tennessee State needs 5 more wins in the final 9 to reach bowl eligibility.
- East Tennessee State is still shaking off a 32-point loss.
North Carolina
- North Carolina is coming off a 32-point win.
The series
North Carolina leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2026 · North Carolina won the last meeting
- 2026North Carolina 35–3
Best players
North Carolina
- Derek Mcdonald (LB) · 14 tackles
- Jelani Thurman (TE) · 165 receiving yards
- Leroy Jackson (DL) · 13 tackles
The line, and the room
The model and the market don’t fully agree on North Carolina’s chances here.
Home −36.5 · O/U 55.5
Conditions
86°F · 6 mph wind · Cloudy
North Carolina is worth +1.8 points (±3.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 16th percentile.
52% at home, 41% on the road against FBS opponents (22–20 home, 17–24 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.2 at home vs. away over 69 games — inside the ±6.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 188 miles to get here.
East Tennessee State 3 – North Carolina 35
Called it — picked North Carolina to win.
Recent games
North Carolina
- Wk 1Wat TCU15-10
East Tennessee State
- Wk 1Lvs Campbell37-49
- Wk 1Wvs Tusculum48-14
Trajectory
North Carolina handled East Tennessee State 35-3, matching the pregame favorite.