2identity shift
Duke: the fanbase's identity shifting.
Manny Diaz's second season at Duke arrives with a 9-5 record, but the fanbase remains uneasy as the program navigates its shifting identity between Cameron Indoor and Wallace Wade Stadium.
Duke9-5Latest
Cautious optimism is building around Duke.
belief warmed ↑ 6.5vs prior week
Fanbase belief
Leaning up
54/100 · 125 mentions
~ our readGrounding
about average
8% cite a stat · 7% typical ✓ counted
~ our readVolatility
Chaotic
σ 32 pts
~ our readThe model
#56
CFB Zeitgeist · +2.9
✓ measured2Hope-Doping·Offseason
Duke is the basketball school that quietly became an ACC football champion — winning the league outright for the first time since 1962 and still half-checking the scoreboard to make sure it's true.
Title DroughtSince 1962 · 63 yrs
Fans hear the same backhand every fall — that Duke is a basketball school whose football is a curiosity, that the academic standard caps the ceiling. They point at the 2025 ACC trophy and ask the talk…
offseason · quiet
Roster Reload - Duke
2026 snapshot - 2026-08-06Returning Production18%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#58 nationally247 composite 669.2
Portal Additions19Primary repair: QB
Portal Losses17Primary pressure: S
Draft Loss3NFL Draft departures (3)
Recruiting Reload#71Depth class
Sin 2 - Che Ojarikreout 4 - Terry MooreStarter Risk
current room: 194 lbs avg (2025 roster)
WRin 3 - Javen Nicholasout 3 - Cooper BarkateEven
current room: 185 lbs avg (2025 roster)
CBin 3 - Dylan Flowersout 3 - Moussa KaneEven
current room: 183 lbs avg (2025 roster)
QBin 3 - Walker Egetout 2 - Darian MensahUpgrade
current room: 206 lbs avg (2025 roster)
DLin 2 - Owen Wafleout 2 - Terry SimmonsEven
current room: 290 lbs avg (2025 roster)
OTin 2 - Braden Millerout 1 - Jack SmallUpgrade
Belief EKG
WinLoss · hover for scorePrior seasons
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · vs Tulane · Sat Sep 5 · 19:30 UTC
The experience
Duke is the program whose football team plays in Wallace Wade Stadium while the school's identity stays with Cameron Indoor — and whose patience with that asymmetry just brought a competitive era under Mike Elko.
Offense: EliteRun/Pass: Pass-first, spreadDefense: Poor
Duke's 2026 season hinges on quarterback development and transfer integration
With a returning player percentage of 18% and a recruiting rank of #71, Duke faces challenges in maintaining consistency. The team's heavy reliance on transfers, including 19 incoming players and 17 outgoing, creates uncertainty in key positions like safety and quarterback.
- Roster reloadDuke has a returning player percentage of 18% and a recruiting rank of #71, indicating a heavy reliance on transfers to fill roster gaps.
Data as of 2026-08-01
·
Validated against program evidence
The Blue Devil is patient.
Duke · the story right now
6 storylines developing
What Duke's offseason is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Duke enters 2026 — the 9-5 record and No. 44 SP+ rating contrast with bottom-quintile returning production, forcing Manny Diaz to rebuild under the shadow of Mike Elko's legacy.
what happenedDuke enters 2026 rated No. 44 in 2025 SP+ (+6.6). ✓ fact
the contextbottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season
narrative tension · our read
identitythis cycle~readnew
Manny Diaz's second season at Duke arrives with a 9-5 record, but the fanbase remains uneasy as the program navigates its shifting identity between Cameron Indoor and Wallace Wade Stadium.
what happenedDuke: the fanbase's identity shifting. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
money downthis cycle✓ factnew
Que'Sean Brown is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
narrative tension · our read
closerthis cycle~attributednew
Anderson Castle: a closer signal screened this season.
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Jeremiah Hasley is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
narrative tension · our read
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Duke enters 2025 at No. 44 in SP+ — bottom-quintile returning production forces Manny Diaz to prove last year's 9-5 leap wasn't a one-year spike under Mike Elko.
what happenedDuke enters 2025 rated No. 44 in SP+ (+6.6). ✓ fact
the contextbottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season
narrative tension · our read
How past storylines here turned out
AnsweredDuke's head-coaching hire held for another season.
Died downDuke's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Died downDuke's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
The story
The Offseason Ledger · Duke
2 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- Portal
QB Blaine Hipa transfer commits from Princeton
Ivy graduate transfer; Hipa's third QB add of the cycle for Diaz, this room is now four-deep on tape.
- Portal
WR Jonah Burton transfer commits from Idaho State
FCS to ACC — Manny Diaz's offense needs receiver depth and Burton's per-target numbers held up.
Transfer portal snapshot
-2.4 net portal points
(raw ledger: +4.7 — unweighted, no position adjustment)S-8.0
starter risk
OT+3.8
RB+3.5
LB+3.4
low confidence
QB+2.8
WR-1.6
CB+0.5
TE+0.2
DL+0.0
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★★☆
Sean Stover
#347 national
★★★★☆
Obinna Umeh
#353 national
★★★☆☆
CJ Givers
#586 national
Profiles like a typical incoming running back — 18 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Balanced Back archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
→
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
58th percentile among FBS programs
Fan vs. market↑
58th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
5.5
Vegas O/U wins
(26th among FBS)
(26th among FBS)
Fans 32pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 3 books
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total3 booksO/U 5.5
CFP championship#48 in field+20000
ACC title#12 in market+6000
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Duke · Next-Season Outcome Band
Duke · Next-Season Outcome BandFloor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 5-7
Base 8-5
Ceiling 10-3
floor5-7No postseason.
base8-5Bowl game.
ceiling10-3Bowl game.
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
How the room reacted
Following now · Duke · Season outlook Confidence
Duke enters the season in the middle of the pack. That's the whole tension.
Duke enters 2026 rated No. 44 in 2025 SP+ (+6.6). It is bottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season. SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. The skeptics have specifics: the schedule, the departures, the pieces the model can't see.
The saga so far~5 months old
Mar 23QB Blaine Hipa transfer commits from Princeton — CFBD /player/portal
Mar 23WR Jonah Burton transfer commits from Idaho State — CFBD /player/portal
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Duke enters 2026 — the 9-5 record and No. 44 SP+ rating contrast with bottom-quintile returning production, forcing Manny Diaz to rebuild under the shadow of Mike Elko's legacy.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious read on this rating isn't the number — it's the schedule. A team at this level has 2-3 games where the model says they're overmatched, and those are the games that define the narrative. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule.
Source of record: Duke enters 2026 rated No. 44 in 2025 SP+ (+6.6) — bottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers0 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“Duke football opens fall 2026 practice”
Substack · 2026-08-06 · read ↗
“Manny Diaz Details How Duke Football Is Evaluating QB Battle”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-08-06 · read ↗
“Football's First Day of Camp”
goduke.com · 2026-08-06 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“Duke opens preseason practice with competition, question marks a” — the real counter.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
“Duke opens preseason practice with competition, question marks at quarterback”
WRAL · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“3 questions facing Duke's offense as fall camp begins”
Duke Wire · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
💬The boards33% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in. Board mood this week: mostly neutral · anger notable (34%).›
This event was in 171 of 518 board posts (33%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"Can I get some insight from those who are in the program or who have graduated from the Duke Master’s Entry program? How is it and is it worth the cost to attend? I applied for the"
r/duke ~ fan take
"Hey everyone, I'm applying to Duke and I'm interested in quant trading/research. I was wondering how well the Math major in Trinity does for recruiting. Do Duke math students regul"
r/duke ~ fan take
Board health this week (131 posts): 15% positive · 66% neutral · 19% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Following now · Duke · Developing Confidence
Duke: the fanbase's identity shifting.
Duke: the fanbase's identity shifting.
The saga so far~5 months old
Mar 23QB Blaine Hipa transfer commits from Princeton — CFBD /player/portal
Mar 23WR Jonah Burton transfer commits from Idaho State — CFBD /player/portal
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Manny Diaz's second season at Duke arrives with a 9-5 record, but the fanbase remains uneasy as the program navigates its shifting identity between Cameron Indoor and Wallace Wade Stadium.
Source of record: Duke: the fanbase's identity shifting.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers0 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
🧐Skeptics“Duke opens preseason practice with competition, question marks a” — the real counter.›
💬The boards33% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in. Board mood this week: mostly neutral · anger notable (34%).›
This event was in 171 of 518 board posts (33%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"Can I get some insight from those who are in the program or who have graduated from the Duke Master’s Entry program? How is it and is it worth the cost to attend? I applied for the"
r/duke ~ fan take
"Hey everyone, I'm applying to Duke and I'm interested in quant trading/research. I was wondering how well the Math major in Trinity does for recruiting. Do Duke math students regul"
r/duke ~ fan take
Board health this week (131 posts): 15% positive · 66% neutral · 19% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Warming
Four of five. The board favors this trend.
Streak W4Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 7-3
The forecast
Opens Sep 5
vs Tulane · at home
Season line5.5 winsover -125
ElitePass-first, spreadPoor
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Rival pulse
North Carolina
Mixed-1
Victory Bell
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
15
GA · 4NC · 3TX · 3FL · 2AL · 1IN · 1PA · 1
GA leads the 2026 class with 4 commits. National footprint reaching 7 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
87 signees across 21 states, 2023-2026. GA leads the pull.
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] Duke Defeats Elon 45-17
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Voter spread
21 of 66 AP voters have them ranked, final AP ballot (2025) — from #16, Robert Cessna (Bryan-College Station Eagle), to #25, Pat Welter (WRAL-TV). 45 voters left them off the ballot entirely.
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, final AP ballot, 2025 — 66 voters tracked.
National spotlight
13 games with TV coverage: 2 national broadcast, 6 ESPN, 1 cable, 4 conference network
Kickoff windows: 4 noon, 6 afternoon, 3 primetime
Fumble luck
46% recovery rate on their own fumbles — below the ~51% league baseline.
6 of 13 own fumbles recovered themselves; 8 of 15 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
Takeaway conversion
25% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — running hot vs. the ~19% league average.
13 interceptions of 51 disrupted passes (38 deflected, 13 intercepted), 2025 only.
Penalty battle
90 penalties committed, 90 drawn on opponents — ceding 36 yards of field position.
878 penalty yards committed vs. 842 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
The Pulse on Duke
54
Δ +6.5 vs last wk
125
mentions this week · conversation velocity
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Duke Football"
— Duke fanbase · recurring line
Fanbase Signals
Cohort Divergence1 pctSpread between sub-fanbase cohorts in the Pulse window.
The Fever Year
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 9 corners
Cr/CFB
GGoogle News
LLocked On
CCampus paper
BBluesky
YYouTube
One voice
How Duke fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
Rr/CFBthe room
Lincoln always tells the truth. Riley always lies. Gotta be careful which one you address a question to
▲ 188 ▼open ↗
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
The room, end to end
skeptical
buying in
Casuals+0.06
Bettors+0.03
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
391 mentions · 6 sources · week 2026-01. Counts, sources and the divergence rank are measured (fact). Cohort labels and sentiment are a source-weighted model read (our read) — never a quote attributed to a person.
Belief checkmiddle of the pack
~ our readDuke fans are split right down the middle, and they're backing it with about as much hard evidence as anyone.
backed by facts
the mood
✓ counted We read 131 posts from Duke fans this week.
Fanbase divided: 44% believers, 56% skeptics
Fan opinions split nearly 50/50 right now · See all divided fanbases →
What fans are saying
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
coaching decisionLimited signal that season
fans believe Manny Diaz is incompetent
We are such a poorly coached team. Special teams coach should be fired at halftime. For a defensive guy, Diaz kind of seems like he doesn’t know what the fuck he’s doing.
Why the fuck is rivers not in Williams, I stg it’s like Diaz coaches to lose
Based on 2 comments from 2 posters across 2 threads · Sep 14, 2025–Nov 1, 2025 · via CFB
player performanceWidely held among fans
fans believe Mensah will have a breakout season with high touchdown totals
Mensah put up 34 TD’s last year at Duke. He may put up 40 but keep in mind, Canes will have the best running game in the nation.
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Aug 1, 2026 · via ESPN College Football
officiatingLimited signal that season
fans believe ACC refs ignore obvious holding calls
ACC refs just refuse to call holding.
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Nov 9, 2025 · via CFB
Show all 4
player performanceWidely held among fans that season
fans believe the team is underperforming due to self-inflicted mistakes and lack of support for their star player
Mensah is really fucking good, like I think will end up being a first round pick eventually. It sucks the rest of the team can’t fulfill his potential
Based on 2 comments from 1 poster across 2 threads · Sep 14, 2025 · via CFB
Season storylines
Week 5
“This is the latest I've stayed up for regular season football, my first sickos after dark. Well worth it.”— r/CFB
Week 19
Week 13
“It’s so media and narrative driven, a loss to a mid tier ACC team is bad, but for an SEC mid tier loss, it just means more… seriously slanted narrative to promote ESPN’s darling SEC”— r/CFB
Week 4
“For real. If we got to eight wins, it would be the first time we've ever done that four years in a row. Not only that, but it would also be the most wins we've ever had in a four-year span in program history. We're at 29 now, and the record is 33 set in 1933-36, 1935-38, 1936-…”— r/CFB
Week 14
“They were see as by far the best team. They were -23.5 coming into this game. 36th in SP+ in combined rankings. They would have been favoured against Duke according to that ranking.”— r/CFB
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Radio, beat writers & editorial6 posts
The broader fanbase3 posts
News & campus coverage11 posts
CFB analyst takes2 posts
Bluesky · @chrisvannini.com
5d ago
Fanbase Health Index · Duke · high confidence
Fanbase Health Index · Duke · high confidenceGrowing (63)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 9-5 (64% win rate)64
Volume — 1021 effective signal-N90
Cohort Engagement — Divergence 0.01 — quiet35
From the booth
The Lexicon
417 posts and articles vs the field · 2025 season
mensah
×108.1 the field
Signature — ≥10× the rest of college football
mensah×108.1n=31
manny×216.5n=18
murphy×123.9n=17
diaz×225.5n=15
Mild — <3×
defense×2.9n=127
cover×18.1n=11
Characteristic — 3–10×
problem×7.7n=14
record×5.8n=17
yards×3.6n=31
pass×4.3n=21
“In Duke’s defense Mensah is a fucking Dude…”
reddit/CFB · fan post, verbatim
Fanbase Voice
805 fan mentions
Doomers
vs the 81 highest-volume fanbases - 2025 season
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#16 / 138 · 89th pct34.6
Pts allowed/game#93 / 138 · 33rd pct29.4
Total yards/gm#17 / 136 · 88th pct423.6
Rush yards/gm#75 / 136 · 46th pct138.2
Pass yards/gm#5 / 136 · 97th pct285.4
Yards allowed/gm#135 / 136 · 1st pct423.7
Rush yds allowed/gm#88 / 136 · 36th pct147.3
Sacks#67 / 136 · 51st pct26
Interceptions#22 / 136 · 85th pct14
3rd-down conv#78 / 136 · 43rd pct39.0%
All 98 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team5930423.6/gm6.18/play#17 / 136 · 88th pct#11 / 69 · 86th pct#3 / 17 · 88th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp5932423.7/gm6.28/play#135 / 136 · 1st pct#69 / 69 · 1st pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Rush yards
Team1935138.2/gm2.02/play#75 / 136 · 46th pct#38 / 69 · 46th pct#8 / 17 · 59th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp2062147.3/gm2.18/play#88 / 136 · 36th pct#52 / 69 · 26th pct#14 / 17 · 24th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Rush carries
Team45432.4/gm#66 / 136 · 52nd pct#29 / 69 · 59th pct#5 / 17 · 76th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp48234.4/gm#100 / 136 · 27th pct#58 / 69 · 17th pct#16 / 17 · 12th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Rush TDs
Team261.9/gm#41 / 136 · 71st pct#24 / 69 · 67th pct#6 / 17 · 71st pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp292.1/gm#123 / 136 · 10th pct#66 / 69 · 6th pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Net pass yards
Team3995285.4/gm4.16/play#5 / 136 · 97th pct#3 / 69 · 97th pct#2 / 17 · 94th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp3870276.4/gm4.10/play#136 / 136 · 1st pct#69 / 69 · 1st pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Pass attempts
Team50636.1/gm#9 / 136 · 94th pct#4 / 69 · 96th pct#1 / 17 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp46233.0/gm#123 / 136 · 10th pct#62 / 69 · 12th pct#13 / 17 · 29th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Completions
Team33624.0/gm#7 / 136 · 96th pct#4 / 69 · 96th pct#2 / 17 · 94th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp31022.1/gm#133 / 136 · 3rd pct#67 / 69 · 4th pct#15 / 17 · 18th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Pass TDs
Team342.4/gm#3 / 136 · 99th pct#2 / 69 · 99th pct#1 / 17 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp211.5/gm#94 / 136 · 32nd pct#52 / 69 · 26th pct#11 / 17 · 41st pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Passer rating
Team149.4149.4#26 / 136 · 82nd pct#19 / 69 · 74th pct#3 / 17 · 88th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp149.9149.9#125 / 136 · 9th pct#65 / 69 · 7th pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team60.4/gm#115 / 136 · 16th pct#60 / 69 · 14th pct#16 / 17 · 12th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp141.0/gm#104 / 136 · 24th pct#52 / 69 · 26th pct#12 / 17 · 35th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Sacks (def)
Team261.9/gm#67 / 136 · 51st pct#40 / 69 · 43rd pct#11 / 17 · 41st pct#8 / 10 · 30th pct
Opp271.9/gm#87 / 136 · 37th pct#42 / 69 · 41st pct#11 / 17 · 41st pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct
Tackles for loss
Team946.7/gm#9 / 136 · 94th pct#8 / 69 · 90th pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct#2 / 10 · 90th pct
Opp755.4/gm#105 / 136 · 24th pct#58 / 69 · 17th pct#15 / 17 · 18th pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct
First downs
Team31522.5/gm#12 / 136 · 92nd pct#10 / 69 · 87th pct#2 / 17 · 94th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp31422.4/gm#135 / 136 · 1st pct#69 / 69 · 1st pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
3rd-down conv
Team715.1/gm#54 / 136 · 61st pct#26 / 69 · 64th pct#6 / 17 · 71st pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp835.9/gm#130 / 136 · 5th pct#67 / 69 · 4th pct#16 / 17 · 12th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
3rd-down att
Team18213.0/gm#36 / 136 · 74th pct#14 / 69 · 81st pct#5 / 17 · 76th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp18313.1/gm#87 / 136 · 37th pct#47 / 69 · 33rd pct#11 / 17 · 41st pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
4th-down conv
Team322.3/gm#3 / 136 · 99th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 17 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp151.1/gm#83 / 136 · 40th pct#41 / 69 · 42nd pct#11 / 17 · 41st pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
4th-down att
Team433.1/gm#4 / 136 · 98th pct#2 / 69 · 99th pct#1 / 17 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp292.1/gm#83 / 136 · 40th pct#41 / 69 · 42nd pct#10 / 17 · 47th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Time of possession
Team416:0929:44/gm#29 / 136 · 79th pct#14 / 69 · 81st pct#3 / 17 · 88th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp423:5130:16/gm#124 / 136 · 10th pct#61 / 69 · 13th pct#15 / 17 · 18th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Kicking & Punting
Field goals#90 / 135 · 34th pct14/19 (73.7%)
Extra points56/56
Punting#40 / 136 · 71st pct44.6 avg · 44 punts
Turnovers & special teams
Turnovers
Team141.0/gm#90 / 136 · 35th pct#40 / 69 · 43rd pct#15 / 17 · 18th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp241.7/gm#118 / 136 · 14th pct#62 / 69 · 12th pct#15 / 17 · 18th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Fumbles lost
Team80.6/gm#25 / 136 · 82nd pct#9 / 69 · 88th pct#5 / 17 · 76th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp100.7/gm#115 / 136 · 16th pct#59 / 69 · 16th pct#14 / 17 · 24th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
INT return TDs
Team10.1/gm#36 / 135 · 74th pct#19 / 69 · 74th pct#5 / 17 · 76th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 136 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 17 · 100th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
INT return yards
Team16711.9/gm#37 / 136 · 74th pct#20 / 69 · 72nd pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp161.1/gm#6 / 136 · 96th pct#2 / 69 · 99th pct#1 / 17 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Punt ret yds
Team1168.3/gm#80 / 136 · 42nd pct#51 / 69 · 28th pct#14 / 17 · 24th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp453.2/gm#20 / 136 · 86th pct#14 / 69 · 81st pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Punt ret TDs
Team10.1/gm#14 / 135 · 90th pct#11 / 69 · 86th pct#3 / 17 · 88th pct#2 / 10 · 90th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 17 · 100th pct#1 / 9 · 100th pct
Kick ret yds
Team65246.6/gm#18 / 136 · 88th pct#6 / 69 · 93rd pct#1 / 17 · 100th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp37326.6/gm#61 / 136 · 56th pct#39 / 69 · 45th pct#11 / 17 · 41st pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Kick ret TDs
Team10.1/gm#7 / 136 · 96th pct#3 / 69 · 97th pct#2 / 17 · 94th pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 17 · 100th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Penalty yards
Team87862.7/gm#12 / 136 · 92nd pct#5 / 69 · 94th pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp84260.1/gm#121 / 136 · 12th pct#66 / 69 · 6th pct#16 / 17 · 12th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Other
Passes intercepted opponent#9 / 136 · 94th pct#5 / 69 · 94th pct#1 / 17 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct60.4/gm
Fumbles recovered#11 / 136 · 93rd pct#6 / 69 · 93rd pct#2 / 17 · 94th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct100.7/gm
Interceptions (def)#22 / 136 · 85th pct#14 / 69 · 81st pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct141.0/gm
Fourth down go rate#23 / 138 · 84th pct#8 / 69 · 90th pct#1 / 17 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct0.50.0/gm
H1 epa per play#28 / 162 · 83rd pct#19 / 69 · 74th pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct0.30.0/gm
Penalties#30 / 136 · 79th pct#16 / 69 · 78th pct#6 / 17 · 71st pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct906.4/gm
Recruiting rating#30 / 138 · 79th pct#30 / 69 · 58th pct#5 / 17 · 76th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct220.915.8/gm
H2 epa per play#35 / 142 · 76th pct#22 / 69 · 70th pct#3 / 17 · 88th pct0.20.0/gm
Punt ret (opp)#49 / 136 · 65th pct#30 / 69 · 58th pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct120.9/gm
First down pass rate#51 / 215 · 77th pct#14 / 69 · 81st pct#5 / 17 · 76th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct0.50.0/gm
Kick returns#56 / 136 · 60th pct#19 / 69 · 74th pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct221.6/gm
Kick ret (opp)#60 / 136 · 57th pct#38 / 69 · 46th pct#10 / 17 · 47th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct201.4/gm
Fumbles rec (def)#86 / 136 · 38th pct#50 / 69 · 29th pct#9 / 17 · 53rd pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct80.6/gm
Penalties (opp)#106 / 136 · 23rd pct#59 / 69 · 16th pct#11 / 17 · 41st pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct906.4/gm
Red zone pass rate#109 / 154 · 30th pct#50 / 69 · 29th pct#14 / 17 · 24th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct0.30.0/gm
H1 epa per play opponent#113 / 167 · 33rd pct#56 / 69 · 20th pct#13 / 17 · 29th pct0.20.0/gm
Punt returns#113 / 136 · 18th pct#62 / 69 · 12th pct#15 / 17 · 18th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct100.7/gm
H2 epa per play opponent#134 / 143 · 7th pct#67 / 69 · 4th pct#16 / 17 · 12th pct0.30.0/gm
Situational
3rd-down conversion
Off39.0%#78 / 136 · 43rd pct#45 / 69 · 36th pct#11 / 17 · 41st pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Def45.4%#125 / 136 · 9th pct#67 / 69 · 4th pct#16 / 17 · 12th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
4th-down conversion
Off74.4%#3 / 136 · 99th pct#3 / 69 · 97th pct#1 / 17 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Def51.7%#63 / 136 · 54th pct#30 / 69 · 58th pct#6 / 17 · 71st pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Turnover margin#11 / 136 · 93rd pct#8 / 69 · 90th pct#1 / 17 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct+0.71/gm
Sack rate (def)#100 / 136 · 27th pct#54 / 69 · 23rd pct#11 / 17 · 41st pct#9 / 10 · 20th pct5.6%
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team604.3/gm#9 / 167 · 95th pct#7 / 69 · 91st pct#3 / 17 · 88th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp523.7/gm#149 / 166 · 11th pct#63 / 69 · 10th pct#15 / 17 · 18th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Red zone score %
Team83.3%83.3%#54 / 167 · 68th pct#29 / 69 · 59th pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp92.3%92.3%#152 / 166 · 9th pct#67 / 69 · 4th pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Points / drive
Team2.90.2/gm#11 / 167 · 94th pct#9 / 69 · 88th pct#1 / 17 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp2.50.2/gm#130 / 166 · 22nd pct#64 / 69 · 9th pct#16 / 17 · 12th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Yards / drive
Team47.73.4/gm#16 / 167 · 91st pct#12 / 69 · 84th pct#3 / 17 · 88th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp45.53.3/gm#143 / 166 · 14th pct#64 / 69 · 9th pct#16 / 17 · 12th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Plays / drive
Team7.00.5/gm#28 / 167 · 84th pct#12 / 69 · 84th pct#2 / 17 · 94th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp6.90.5/gm#135 / 166 · 19th pct#57 / 69 · 19th pct#14 / 17 · 24th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team10.5%10.5%#45 / 167 · 74th pct#22 / 69 · 70th pct#5 / 17 · 76th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp11.7%11.7%#111 / 166 · 34th pct#53 / 69 · 25th pct#12 / 17 · 35th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Rush rate over expected#120 / 145 · 18th pct#58 / 69 · 17th pct#12 / 17 · 35th pct-6.1%-6.1%
Havoc rate
Team17.8%17.8%#30 / 140 · 79th pct#22 / 69 · 70th pct#7 / 17 · 65th pct
Opp15.4%15.4%#72 / 140 · 49th pct#35 / 69 · 51st pct#6 / 17 · 71st pct
Standard-downs success
Team51.9%51.9%#27 / 154 · 83rd pct#20 / 69 · 72nd pct#3 / 17 · 88th pct
Opp49.8%49.8%#102 / 172 · 41st pct#48 / 69 · 32nd pct#14 / 17 · 24th pct
Passing-downs success
Team32.4%32.4%#56 / 153 · 64th pct#31 / 69 · 57th pct#7 / 17 · 65th pct
Opp34.7%34.7%#125 / 149 · 17th pct#61 / 69 · 13th pct#16 / 17 · 12th pct
Line yards / carry
Team2.82.8#107 / 143 · 26th pct#53 / 69 · 25th pct#13 / 17 · 29th pct
Opp2.62.6#24 / 155 · 85th pct#13 / 69 · 83rd pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct
Stuff rate
Team22.6%22.6%#127 / 143 · 12th pct#65 / 69 · 7th pct#16 / 17 · 12th pct
Opp22.8%22.8%#17 / 155 · 90th pct#9 / 69 · 88th pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct
Power success rate
Team67.4%67.4%#84 / 137 · 39th pct#44 / 69 · 38th pct#11 / 17 · 41st pct
Opp74.4%74.4%#102 / 141 · 28th pct#53 / 69 · 25th pct#13 / 17 · 29th pct
Efficiency
Completion %
Off66.4%#25 / 136 · 82nd pct#18 / 69 · 75th pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Def67.1%#127 / 136 · 7th pct#67 / 69 · 4th pct#16 / 17 · 12th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Yards / attempt
Off7.9#39 / 136 · 72nd pct#24 / 69 · 67th pct#5 / 17 · 76th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Def8.4#125 / 136 · 9th pct#65 / 69 · 7th pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Yards / completion
Off11.9#58 / 136 · 58th pct#33 / 69 · 54th pct#7 / 17 · 65th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Def12.5#110 / 136 · 20th pct#60 / 69 · 14th pct#16 / 17 · 12th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Yards / carry#80 / 136 · 42nd pct#42 / 69 · 41st pct#10 / 17 · 47th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct4.3
Yards / play#30 / 136 · 79th pct#20 / 69 · 72nd pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct6.18
Scoring margin#56 / 136 · 60th pct#38 / 69 · 46th pct#10 / 17 · 47th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct+5.1/gm
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
Quarterbacks
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Surgeon · +0.37 EPA/play | 10 | 14 | 334 / 500 | 66.8 | 3973 #2 FBS | 7.9 | 34 #2 FBS | 6 | 153.6 | 74.7 | 8.1 | 4.0 | |
Yards by week → Pocket Surgeon· Money-downHigh-percentage passer who protects the ball. Loses the matchup on improvisation. saves his best for the money downs All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 12 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Completion %68.6% 82th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts INT rate1.2% 87th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like our readTwo-star recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||||||||
Running Backs
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.19 EPA/play | 20 | 14 | 200 | 1132 #22 FBS | 5.7 | 11 #38 FBS | 60 | 14.4 | 18.7 | 16.9 | 16.9 | 9.6% (44/459) | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry6.2 68th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share15.6% 73th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Nate Sheppard's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Power Back · +0.15 EPA/play | 4 | 14 | 115 | 488 | 4.2 | 12 #30 FBS | 66 | 13.9 | 5.9 | 21.1 | 7.3 | 4.1% (19/459) | |
Yards by week → Power Back· Boom-or-bustShort-yardage and goal-line specialist. Carries the load, owns the red zone. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 10 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Rush TD rate10.4% 99th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / carry4.4 bottom 18th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Anderson Castle's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · -0.08 EPA/play | 9 | 8 | 41 | 201 | 4.9 | 1 | 32 | 2.2 | 7.1 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry5.6 bottom 39th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate2.4% bottom 25th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jaquez Moore's full player page | |||||||||||||
Receivers
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.58 EPA/play | 18 | 14 | 72 | 1106 #9 FBS | 15.4 | 7 #38 FBS | 77 | 13.3 | 13.8 | 25.5% (117/459) | |
Yards by week → Slot Technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The rare part: the passing game runs through him — and every touch moves the offense, too 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume72 98th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Total EPA (college ability)65.0 99th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like View Cooper Barkate's full player page | |||||||||||
| Slot Technician · +0.39 EPA/play | 7 | 14 | 63 | 842 #53 FBS | 13.4 | 5 | 69 | 11.7 | 12.1 | 18.5% (85/459) | |
Yards by week → Slot Technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume63 94th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.4 bottom 35th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 56th to 88th percentile among FBS WRs | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.53 EPA/play | 2 | 14 | 44 | 512 | 11.6 | 6 #62 FBS | 35 | 10.6 | 10 | 13.1% (60/459) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Return threatReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. a house-call threat every time he fields it All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 14 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2021 class View Sahmir Hagans's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.63 EPA/play | 85 | 13 | 40 | 454 | 11.3 | 6 #62 FBS | 56 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 10.0% (46/459) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception13.0 71th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume40 93th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jeremiah Hasley's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.46 EPA/play | 1 | 9 | 26 | 246 | 9.5 | 5 | 35 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 6.8% (31/459) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception10.6 bottom 23th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate19.2% 96th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint View Andrel Anthony Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +1.19 EPA/play | — | 10 | 15 | 203 | 13.5 | 4 | 33 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 3.7% (17/459) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception12.4 67th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate26.7% 99th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Landen King's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.44 EPA/play | 8 | 5 | 7 | 42 | 6 | 0 | 15 | 8.8 | 6.8 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
Defensive Line
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 99 | 14 | 44 | 19 | 11 #74 FBS | 2.5 | 4 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate25.0% 86th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Aaron Hall's full player page | |||||||
| Pressure Merchant | 97 | 14 | 43 | 21 | 8 | 2 | 16 |
Pressure MerchantCollapses the pocket even when the sack doesn't come. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 23 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Hurry rate0.4 95th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Wesley Williams's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 4 | 11 | 38 | 9 | 7 | 3.5 | 2 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate18.4% 65th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| Finisher | 7 | 13 | 34 | 20 | 13 #42 FBS | 7 #39 FBS | 4 |
FinisherTurns pressure into sacks — when he gets there, he finishes. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 16 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Pressure-to-sack conversion0.6 83th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Vincent Anthony's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 10 | 12 | 23 | 9 | 3 | 0.5 | 1 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 139 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate13.0% bottom 27th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tyshon Reed's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 95 | 11 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 0.5 | 2 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate20.0% 71th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score climbed from the 22nd percentile to the 67th among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| Pressure Merchant | 50 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
Pressure MerchantCollapses the pocket even when the sack doesn't come. 23 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Hurry rate0.4 94th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Kevin O'Connor's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 18 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 139 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate0.0% bottom 4th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Kobe Smith's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 14 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 139 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate20.0% 51th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Bryce Davis's full player page | |||||||
| 44 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | |
| 43 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
Linebackers
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 34 | 14 | 91 | 48 | 43 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 2 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume91 92th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate1.6% bottom 35th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 93rd percentile among FBS LBs, up from the 0th | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 2 | 14 | 73 | 30 | 43 | 7.5 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume73 79th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate4.1% 70th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jaiden Francois's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 12 | 13 | 52 | 23 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.8% 87th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate1.9% bottom 37th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tre Freeman's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 42 | 9 | 37 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.4% 84th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume37 bottom 31th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 41st percentile among FBS LBs, up from the 0th | |||||||||
| Thumper | 36 | 4 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 3.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate19.4% 92th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume18 bottom 12th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Nick Morris Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 31 | 3 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume16 bottom 11th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate12.5% 98th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Elliott Schaper's full player page | |||||||||
| 24 | 6 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Defensive Backs
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 3 | 14 | 89 | 1 | 2 | 5.5 | 1.5 |
Box Safety· Takeaway threatLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume89 99th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| Box Safety | 8 | 14 | 86 | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume86 98th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 84th percentile among FBS Ss, up from the 47th | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | — | 13 | 59 | 8 #45 FBS | 2 | 3.5 | 0 |
Perimeter TacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 42 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume59 98th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Chandler Rivers's full player page | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 21 | 12 | 42 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Perimeter TacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 42 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume42 82th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Landan Callahan's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 5 | 10 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 141 of 270 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2023 class View Kimari Robinson's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 26 | 14 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | 1 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate2.9% bottom 25th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Ma'Khi Jones's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 35 | 13 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate7.7% bottom 49th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Andrew Pellicciotta's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 22 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 141 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 8th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Moussa Kane's full player page | |||||||
Kicking
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 29 | 14 | 14/19 | 73.7 | 55/55 | 97 | 49 |
Punting
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Complete | 41 | 14 | 44 | 1963 | 44.6 | 57 | 21 | 2 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
Kick Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.53 EPA/play | 2 | 14 | 14 | 467 | 33.4 | 1 | 100 |
Punt Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.39 EPA/play | 7 | 14 | 10 | 116 | 11.6 | 1 | 78 |
2025 stat leaders
final
2025 stat leaders
1.
Darian Mensah
QB
3,973 yds (pass)
2.
Cooper Barkate
WR
1,106 yds (rec)
3.
Luke Mergott
LB
91.0 tot (def)
4.
Caleb Weaver
S
89.0 tot (def)
5.
DaShawn Stone
S
86.0 tot (def)
Roster
2025
27
players carry a qualified CFB Index Score this season.
Cooper Barkate
WR
#12 of 485
Josiah Green
IDL
#14 of 330
Aaron Hall
IDL
#16 of 330
Nate Sheppard
RB
#16 of 326
Vincent Anthony
EDGE
#32 of 420
Luke Mergott
LB
#49 of 583
+21 more
Duke · 2025 schedule & results9-5Brutal slateAverage opponent win rate 59% · 6 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule. 1 ranked win banked (time-of-game rank).
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 28 | #65 | #206 | — | Elon | W 45–17 59 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #83 | #44 | +2.5 | Illinois | L 19–45 136 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 14 | #72 | #66 | -1.5 | @Tulane | L 27–34 138 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #69 | #29 | -3.5 | NC State | W 45–33 137 | 2-2 | 1-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #67 | #76 | -3.5 | @Syracuse | W 38–3 128 | 3-2 | 2-0 |
| 6 | Oct 5 | #54 | #61 | -3.5 | @California | W 45–21 128 | 4-2 | 3-0 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #47 | #38 | -3.5 | Georgia Tech | L 18–27 133 | 4-3 | 3-1 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #53 | #16 | +4 | @Clemson | W 46–45 136 | 5-3 | 4-1 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #56 | #65 | -7.5 | @UConn | L 34–37 135 | 5-4 | 4-1 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #56 | #49 | -5 | Virginia | L 17–34 135 | 5-5 | 4-2 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #68 | #136 | -7 | @North Carolina | W 32–25 128 | 6-5 | 5-2 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #75 | #46 | -2.5 | Wake Forest | W 49–32 149 | 7-5 | 6-2 |
| Conference Championship | ||||||||
| 15 | Dec 7 | #64 | #37 | +3.5 | Virginia (N)Top 25 win | W 27–20 138 | 8-5 | 7-2 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 18 | Dec 31 | #62 | #38 | -4 | Arizona State (N) | W 42–39 | 9-5 | 7-2 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31 | Arizona State | W 42–39 | — | — | — | +0.198 | 49.4% | 122.5% | One-score win |
| Dec 7 | Virginia | W 27–20 | 333 | 1 | 34:24 | +0.214 | 44.3% | 119.1% | One-score win |
| Nov 29 | Wake Forest | W 49–32 | 378 | 0 | 34:39 | +0.290 | 42.7% | 154.2% | |
| Nov 22 | @North Carolina | W 32–25 | 352 | 0 | 36:00 | +0.179 | 41.2% | 142.2% | One-score win |
| Nov 15 | Virginia | L 17–34 | 255 | 1 | 24:02 | -0.005 | 31.6% | 136.0% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Nov 8 | @UConn | L 34–37 | 390 | 3 | 26:47 | +0.260 | 53.0% | 113.1% | One-score loss |
| Nov 1 | @Clemson | W 46–45 | 439 | 0 | 25:34 | +0.313 | 36.9% | 188.4% | Most explosive |
| Oct 18 | Georgia Tech | L 18–27 | 441 | 1 | 33:29 | +0.037 | 52.7% | 100.0% | |
| Oct 5 | @California | W 45–21 | 443 | 0 | 31:03 | +0.296 | 46.3% | 131.1% | |
| Sep 27 | @Syracuse | W 38–3 | 504 | 0 | 31:35 | +0.480 | 53.1% | 135.9% | Best success rate |
| Sep 20 | NC State | W 45–33 | 418 | 0 | 27:31 | +0.319 | 46.0% | 147.7% | |
| Sep 14 | @Tulane | L 27–34 | 452 | 1 | 26:43 | +0.195 | 41.6% | 132.1% | One-score loss |
| Sep 6 | Illinois | L 19–45 | 438 | 5 | 23:48 | +0.213 | 48.3% | 116.3% | |
| Aug 28 | Elon | W 45–17 | 548 | 1 | 27:07 | +0.502 | 52.5% | 148.5% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (14 games) | 415 | 1.0 | +0.249 | 45.7% | 134.8% | ||||
How They Play · 2025
How They Play · 2025Duke fields an elite pass-first offense behind a porous, gives up the big play defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Duke actually scores
80th percentile quality, 14th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Duke's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 77th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 65th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Duke hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
82nd percentile success on standard downs, 63rd on passing downs — a 19-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
Duke by half
1st-half offense ranks 83rd percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 76th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
How much of Duke's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.25; 90th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.08. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.50 raw vs. 0.04 adjusted.
Duke reads strongest in explosive plays (top 16%) and epa / play (top 18%); the crux lives in passing epa allowed, where Duke sits at the 12th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
ELITE · 90+STRONG · 70+AVERAGE · 40-70CONCERN · 10-40BOTTOM · <10
Most Similar Programs · Duke
Most Similar Programs · DukeReads Like
VirginiaTier 4 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontWake ForestTier 4 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontIowa StateTier 4 · Prestige T3
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Duke · 2018-present
Strong
59% home win rate vs 40% on the road. margin runs +4.6 better at home. Wallace Wade Stadium seats 40,004, averaging 63% full (25,203 attendance, 24 games reported).
Home29-20Away18-26
Positional competition · RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Nate Sheppard and Anderson Castle split the carries (200/315 vs 115/315) -- but Anderson Castle leads on every measured axis. This isn't a split role, it's a hierarchy with a change-of-pace back behind it.
Nate SheppardAnderson Castle
Carries
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
Inside the 5
p = 0.000 -- real, not noise
Q4, leading (competitive)
p = 0.020 -- real, not noise
Targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-carry share
concentration and EPA/carry agree -- a real boom/bust split
See it develop week by week
Inside-the-5 share, week by week (weeks both players actually played the role)
Screened 4 claims, 3 survived, 1 falsified
Positional competition · WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Cooper Barkate (WR) and Jeremiah Hasley (TE) split the targets (113/159 vs 46/159) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Cooper BarkateJeremiah Hasley
Targets
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
3rd-down targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Inside the 10
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Garbage-time share
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-catch share
concentration alone -- EPA/target doesn't corroborate, read with caution
Screened 4 claims, 0 survived, 4 falsified
What changed
Duke’s play-calling, before and after the change
Offense: Kevin Johns (2022–2023) → Jonathan Brewer (2024–2025)
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved up 10 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
4th-down go rate
Defense: co-Lyle Hemphill / co-Tyler Santucci (2023) → Jonathan Patke (2024–2025)
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved up 12 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
Season by season
How Duke’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Offense: Jonathan Brewer (2024–2025)
1st-down pass rate
2024: 47% → 2025: 49% · 3-pt range · #159 of 171 · less than most
Red-zone pass rate
2024: 47% → 2025: 33% · 14-pt range · #70 of 171 · a typical amount
4th-down go rate
2024: 31% → 2025: 49% · 18-pt range · #77 of 171 · a typical amount
Defense: Jonathan Patke (2024–2025)
1st-down pass rate
2024: 47% → 2025: 49% · 3-pt range · #178 of 189 · less than most
Red-zone pass rate
2024: 47% → 2025: 33% · 14-pt range · #90 of 189 · a typical amount
4th-down go rate
2024: 31% → 2025: 49% · 18-pt range · #82 of 188 · a typical amount
Defensive identity · pass zones
What this defense gives up, by zone.
On short passes, Duke’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (67.8% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 213-play sample) — mid-pack, 102 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
Screened 133 claims, 133 survived · 2025 only, in the 399 games with the detailed play-text feed; n=213 short-zone plays faced, raw rate 69.0%
Historical echo
Duke’s breakout has happened before — and 2 of the 4 closest programs couldn’t hold it.
Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.
Ole Miss 1953–1958
kept climbing
Rutgers 1974–1979
fell back
New Mexico 1974–1979
fell back
NC State 1959–1964
kept climbing
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Venue texture
67°F average kickoff temp; 11% of games had measurable precipitation; 7 mph average wind.
Based on 75 home games with weather data.
The CFP Era
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
TRAJECTORY · quality-score line · AP rank dotted · CFP bids marked · coach regimes ribboned
Program Quality
AP Rank (inverted)
CFP Appearance
Duke's 2014–2025 record is 81-71. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
537-558-29
since 1890 · 107 seasons · .477 win rate
HOME
306-232-22
AWAY
220-315-7
NEUTRAL
11-11
1890s
1920s
1930s
1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
The program, in full — read the essay
Duke won the ACC in 2025. Not a division title on a tiebreaker, not a bowl consolation — the full conference championship, 27-20 in overtime over Virginia, the program's first outright league title since 1962. The academic basketball school from Durham now has to figure out what comes after something like that.
Wallace Wade Stadium sits a short walk from Cameron Indoor Arena. For most of Duke's modern history, that proximity was the whole story — the basketball building drew the national attention, the football building drew the modest Saturday crowd. Manny Diaz, in his second season, changed the geography of the argument. Back-to-back nine-win campaigns and an ACC trophy in the trophy case: Duke football is now a thing the rest of the league schedules around.
The offseason in Durham has been quiet in the way that a program with a contract extension through 2032 earns. Diaz signed through 2032 after the title. The Sun Bowl followed the ACC championship, 42-39 over Arizona State. The institutional question — whether an academic-first private school with the conference's strictest admissions standards can sustain this altitude or whether the league adjusts and brings the program back to earth — is the open ledger item heading into 2026.
What 2026 will actually answer is not whether Duke can win the ACC again but whether this is a program in a new phase or a two-year lightning strike. The conference has tape now. Opponents know the scheme. Recruiting under the strictest GPA bar in the league stays hard. The house-money era still feels like a gift — the question is whether Durham has learned to budget for it.
How they play
Diaz's Duke runs disciplined, fourth-quarter football — a program that out-executes in the fourth quarter and wins games it has no talent margin to win. The scheme is pro-style structure with enough tempo to punish defenses that don't adjust. Recruited under strict academic requirements, the roster is built on precision and scheme fit over raw athleticism. The Wallace Wade crowd is not loud by Power conference standards — but they watched their team win an overtime ACC championship game, and that changes the ambient expectation.
Steady
Duke 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (+0.15 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 2.
CFP Era · Duke
12 seasons on file
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 9-5
Season Standing · 2025 · 9-5Bowl eligible
Duke: 6+ wins, bowl access secured. The baseline of a successful FBS year.
R0R1R2R3R4R5R6R7R8R9
Sub-FBSBuildingBowlRankedContenderPlayoff
ACC Standing · 2025
1st in the ACC
Duke sits at the top of the ACC at 7-2. Everyone else is chasing.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duke | 7-2 |
| 2 | Virginia | 7-3 |
| 3 | Georgia Tech | 6-2 |
| 4 | Miami | 6-2 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh | 6-2 |
| 6 | SMU | 6-2 |
| 7 | NC State | 5-4 |
| 8 | California | 4-4 |
| 9 | Clemson | 4-4 |
| 10 | Louisville | 4-4 |
| 11 | Wake Forest | 4-4 |
| 12 | Stanford | 3-5 |
| 13 | Florida State | 2-6 |
| 14 | North Carolina | 2-6 |
| 15 | Virginia Tech | 2-6 |
| 16 | Boston College | 1-7 |
| 17 | Syracuse | 1-7 |
Coaching Era · Duke
Coaching Era · DukeManny Diaz
Manny Diaz in year 3 of the rebuild. The methodology is taking shape.
Era Manny Diaz · 2024–presentPrev: Trooper Taylor (2023)OC: Jonathan BrewerPrev OC: Kevin Johns (2022–2023)DC: Jonathan PatkePrev DC: co-Lyle Hemphill / co-Tyler Santucci (2023)
3
years · era
Rituals
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
Cameron Crazies (Adjacent)
since 1986
Cameron Crazies — the basketball student section — define Duke fan identity more than football. Duke football lives in the orbit of basketball's national brand; the football fanbase tunes in for the games, but the cultural anchor remains Cameron Indoor.
Wallace Wade Stadium
since 1929
Wallace Wade Stadium (33,000-seat capacity, the smallest P5 stadium by capacity in some seasons) hosted the 1942 Rose Bowl when wartime relocated the game from California. The horseshoe-shaped venue with old-school college-football aesthetics is a stark visual contrast to modern mega-stadiums.
Mike Elko Era
since 2022
Mike Elko's 2022 hire transformed Duke football's competitive profile. The 2022 9-4 season and 2023 8-5 (before Elko departed to Texas A&M) were Duke's best stretch in a decade. Manny Diaz inherited 2024 and continued the cultural shift.
The Chronicle
Darian Mensah's passing WEPA graded positive across 492 plays
Mensah posted a .42 WEPA passing across 492 plays — more plays than any other Duke skill player logged that season — with 134 mentions over 11 weeks of real conversation presence. Go Duke: Wallace Wade had a quarterback worth watching all that fall.
gamelog + roster archive · Darian Mensah · 2025Cooper Barkate logged 59 mentions in just seven weeks
Barkate carried real conversation presence across 7 weeks — four fewer than Mensah's 11 — yet still generated 59 mentions and a peak attention score of 3.59. Blue Devils football had more than one name worth knowing that season.
gamelog + roster archive · Cooper Barkate · 2025Duke's worst loss of the season came against Illinois in Week 2
The Blue Devils' 19-45 loss to Illinois in Week 2 landed 31.1 points below the team's season-average margin of 5.1 — the widest gap between a scoreline and Duke's own baseline all year. Go Duke: the low point of the season arrived early, in just the second week.
gamelog · 2025 season · wk 2Duke's biggest win of the season came on the road at Syracuse
The Blue Devils' 38-3 win over Syracuse in Week 5 produced a 35-point margin — more than the Blue Devils managed in any other game that season, and on the road no less. Just three weeks after the Illinois loss, Wallace Wade's team looked like a completely different program.
gamelog · 2025 season · wk 5Duke closed the season on a four-game winning streak
The Blue Devils won four straight to close 2025 — over North Carolina, Wake Forest, Virginia, and Arizona State, by margins of 7, 17, 7, and 3 — the program's longest active streak of the year. Go Duke: Wallace Wade got louder every week the calendar ran out.
gamelog · 2025 season through wk 18Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
The 1942 Rose Bowl in Durham
The only Rose Bowl ever played outside Pasadena, moved to Duke after Pearl Harbor
The 2025 ACC Championship
Duke beats Virginia 27-20 in overtime to win the league outright for the first time since 1962
Sun Bowl 2025
A 42-39 bowl win over Arizona State to cap a 9-5 championship season
Moment of the Year · Duke · 2025
Moment of the Year · Duke · 2025Postseason · Won 42-39 vs Arizona State
Week 18 of 2025. Postseason win — the season-defining moment.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Bowl / Postseason LedgerRecent postseason (2014-2025): 6-2
Most recent: 2025 — win 42-39 (home). Last 5 postseason: 4-1.
20252024202320222018
NFL Draft Pipeline
2024–2026
NFL Draft PipelineDeveloping
6 picks last 5 cycles. Pipeline emerging.
6
picks · 1 R1
#26
Graham Barton
Center · 2024 · Tampa Bay
#95
DeWayne Carter
Defensive Tackle · 2024 · Buffalo · #44/302 final season
#119
Wesley Williams
Defensive Edge · 2026 · Jacksonville · #89/420 final season
#63 all-time · 8 first-round picksthe talent factory →
Unit lineage
Duke’s offense and defense, by coordinator
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Offense2014–2025
2014–2015 · Scottie Montgomery2016–2020 · Zac Roper2021 · co-Jeff Faris / co-Re'quan Boyette2022–2023 · Kevin Johns2024–2025 (ongoing) · Jonathan Brewer
Defense2014–2025
2014–2017 · Jim Knowles2018–2021 · co-Ben Albert / co-Matt Guerrieri2022 · Robb Smith2023 · co-Lyle Hemphill / co-Tyler Santucci2024–2025 (ongoing) · Jonathan Patke
Elite (≥70th pct)AveragePoor (≤30th pct)
Chronicle Visuals
A heavy-turnover 2025: 18% returning (below average), with the offense the biggest question.
The portal upgraded the OT room but opened a hole at DL.
The 2026 draft hit DEFENSIVE EDGE hardest — and the portal hasn't replaced it yet.
Duke sits where recruit talent and draft yield largely match.
r/cfb moments
1.2k
[Postgame Thread] Duke Defeats UCF 30-13
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