cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Kevin O'Connor /Duke

Kevin O'Connor

DE · Duke · So · #50

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

11 TACKLES · 0 SACKS

2026 RETURNINGReturning to Duke for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to Duke for 2026

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Defensive end · Duke

Returning around him

  • 18% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
  • 3 Duke players drafted to NFL
  • Transfer portal: +2 net (19 in / 17 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Duke · Last season: 9-5 · Talent rank #58 · 2026 recruiting class #30

DE · DUKE · ACC

Kevin O'Connor

  • 2
  • #50
  • 6-4 | 245 lb
  • Easton, MD

CFB Zeitgeist Score

29

Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by qb hurries at the 88th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#8491

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP DEFENSE AWARD

Nagurski

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R05 · Part-time starter

Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#845 national
CFB
College
Duke
2024–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionDE
Class2
Jersey50
Measurements6-4 | 245 lb
HometownEaston, MD
Primary teamDuke

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 845 recruit
Composite rating 0.8700 HighSchool
Signed with -- 2023
Origin Easton Easton, MD, USA
Class Profile Context
2023 3-star | 0.8700 No. 845 recruit | HighSchool

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#8491Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#8336Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to —

Composite

0.8700

#845 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Kevin O'Connor

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Kevin O'Connor

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the defensive totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 7g
11Tackles
1Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Per game
2Tackles
0.1Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Projected (13g)
20Tackles
1.9Tackles for loss
0Sacks

To hit 80-tackle season (currently 11): needs 11.5/game over remaining 6.

To hit 100-tackle season (currently 11): needs 14.8/game over remaining 6.

To hit 6-sack season (currently 0): needs 1/game over remaining 6.

To hit 10-sack season (currently 0): needs 1.7/game over remaining 6.

Why this is a rare defensive case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Kevin O'Connor is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Duke's defense, with 0.0 sacks, 1.0 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.

Current place #8491 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load -- Role share still loading
Profile quirk Defensive rarity 0.0 sacks | 1.0 TFL

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

DEF season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Total tackles 11 3 solo | #2749/4942 (44th pct)
TFL 1.0 Backfield disruption | #2051/4972 (59th pct)
Sacks 0.0 Pass-rush finish | #1762/4972 (65th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

High-disruption defender against FBS defenders.

High-disruption defender

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Tackling & Disruption

TOT
11 44th
SOLO
3 28th
TFL
1.0 59th
SACK
0.0 65th
QBH
4 85th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 7 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppTKLSOLOTFLSACKINTPDNote
Wk 1W 45-17vs Elon200.00.00Season-high 5 tackles
Wk 5W 38-3@ Syracuse100.00.00
Wk 12L 17-34vs Virginia110.00.00
Wk 13W 32-25@ North Carolina100.00.00
Wk 14W 49-32vs Wake Forest000.00.00
Wk 15W 27-20@ Virginia100.00.00
BowlW 42-39vs Arizona State521.00.00
Total1131.00.00
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2024Duke9-4HC: Manny Diaz · Pass-leaning
2025Duke9-5HC: Manny Diaz · Balanced
SeasonTeam
2025Duke1131.00.0------
2024Duke830.50.5------
Career2 loaded seasons1961.50.5------
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Disruption stats

TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.

Coverage splash

Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

INT -- -- pick-six TD
Pass breakups 0 Coverage disruption
QB pressures 4 Quarterback hurries | #291/1878 (85th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Defense Total tackles 11 #2749/4942 44th pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense TFL 1.0 #2051/4972 59th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Sacks 0.0 #1762/4972 65th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense QB hurries 4 #291/1878 85th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Solo tackles 3 #3280/4584 28th pct Volumevs FBS DEF

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

The Lombardi award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 7 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Home4g2.00.20.00.0
Road3g1.00.00.00.0

Win vs Loss

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Wins6g1.70.20.00.0
Losses1g1.00.00.00.0

First half vs Second half

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Weeks 1-73g2.70.30.00.0
Weeks 8+4g0.80.00.00.0

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the DE cohort

29Below cohort
6 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: qb hurries (87th). Concern: solo tackles (1st).

QB hurries#288 / 2975 · 88th pct
4defe
Tackles for loss#1936 / 2975 · 28th pct
1.0defe
Sacks#1575 / 2975 · 24th pct
0.0defe
Passes defended#1916 / 2975 · 18th pct
0defe
Tackles#2749 / 2975 · 6th pct
11defe
Solo tackles#2892 / 2975 · 2nd pct
3defe

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · DE · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 6 metrics
Kevin O'ConnorDukeBlake FletcherAir Force· 43% simTyler MartinMassachusetts· 37% simMicah DaveyUTEP· 37% sim
QB hurries
88
O'Connor
92
Fletcher
22
Martin
82
Davey
Tackles for loss
28
O'Connor
28
Fletcher
63
Martin
91
Davey
Sacks
24
O'Connor
24
Fletcher
24
Martin
63
Davey
Passes defended
18
O'Connor
67
Fletcher
67
Martin
18
Davey
Tackles
6
O'Connor
99
Fletcher
98
Martin
99
Davey
Solo tackles
2
O'Connor
91
Fletcher
87
Martin
99
Davey

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Versatile End

Holds up against run and pass without a single dominant trait.

EDGE

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Mekhi Buchanan’s 2023 season.

Mekhi Buchanan

82%match

Virginia · 2023

#2

Jayden Virgin

Boise State · 2023

81%
#3

Bradley Vislisel

New Mexico State · 2025

79%
#4

Devean Deal

Tulane · 2022

78%
#5

CJ Bazile

Buffalo · 2021

78%

Matches Mekhi on

Weight
Sack rate
Height

Differs from Mekhi on

Class year (higher)

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Jacob Cruz's sophomore season at Jacksonville State (2025).

Jacob Cruz

93%match

Jacksonville State · 2025

#2

Michael Pleas Jr.

Southern Miss · 2021

88%
#3

Destin Gainer

New Mexico · 2023

87%
#4

Rylan Barnes

Iowa State · 2025

86%
#5

Kenyon Agurs

Colorado State · 2025

84%

Matches Jacob on

Class year
Height
Sack rate

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Manny Diaz

Pass share

53.3%

506 pass / 444 run

Plays / game

67.9

14 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

6.7%

358 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Balanced.

Coaching Lineage · 2024–2025

1 coach
2024
Manny Diaz
Duke
2025
Manny Diaz
Duke

Played his entire career under Manny Diaz.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownEaston, MD
Height6'4"
Weight245 lb
Class2
PositionDE
Jersey50

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Duke DE2 #8491 #8336 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | ACC
2023 Duke DE2 #11736 #11479 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | ACC

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Duke ACC DE 2 No. 50 | 6-4 | 245 lb | Easton, MD
2024 Duke ACC DE 2 No. 50 | 6-4 | 245 lb | Easton, MD
2023 Duke ACC DE 2 No. 50 | 6-4 | 245 lb | Easton, MD