Duke 17-3 Tulane (Sep 5, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Tulane · Duke

Tulane0-13

Duke1-017Final

Sat, Sep 5 · Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, N.C. · Crowd 16,113

Duke beat Tulane 17-3.

We had Duke favored. It won.

Next: Tulane beat South Alabama 28-24, Sat Sep 12

Next: Duke beat Illinois 31-27, Sat Sep 12

Top comment in the game thread

Sheppard is now 5th in Duke single game rushing yards

Q4 13:15 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 5

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Duke a 60% chance, and the closing betting line (Duke was a 9.5-point favorite) put it at 78%.

Favored the whole way: Duke never fell below 76%.

Tulane never had better than a 24% chance.

FinalDuke 17-3 TulaneDuke wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 7:38Duke fans celebrate defensive resurgence after stopping Tulane's driveThe receivers are more dangerous than the QB running it, stick to themr/CFB game thread
Q2 4:53Duke fans argue Eget pass to Campbell was a touchdownCome on, that was a TD. Mate.r/CFB game thread
Q2 2:56Officials overturn first down call on Eget pass to Campbell, sparking Duke fan outrageThese officials are horrible. He’s like a full yard shortr/CFB game thread
Q2 0:05Duke fans criticize Eget after three straight incomplete passes to HasleyMaalik alwasy threw gas, but he was mostly on target. For Eget, even the big pass was behind the WR.r/CFB game thread
Q4 13:15Duke fans celebrate Sheppard's rushing performance while criticizing Eget's playQuoted at the top of the page.

Duke’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Duke -9.5), at 76% for Duke (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Duke or Tulane flair (170 and 37); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Kickoff came 1 hour 28 minutes late. Thunder was reported at Raleigh / Durham airport (11 miles away) from 3:09 p.m. to 4:01 p.m., around the delay.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Duke’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Duke scored on 3 of its 13 drives; Tulane on 1 of its 12.

Duke’s drives are teal, Tulane’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

“Sheppard is now 5th in Duke single game rushing yards”

A Duke fan

When fans got loud

Busy

The biggest reaction came in the fourth quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was quiet.

Fans of both teams were loud at once in the bracketed stretch.

“Sheppard really is the little engine that could”

A Duke fan

What it cost

Tulane’s chance to make the playoff fell from 4% to 3%.

Make the playoff

Tulane · lost4% → ▼3%

Duke · won2% → 2%

Win the conference

Tulane · lost11% → ▼10%

Duke · won1% → 1%

Before the game (September 4, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Duke 17, Tulane 3

Duke covered −9.5 by 4.5. The total, 20, stayed under 51.5.

Team totals	Tulane	Duke
Total yards	258	381
Passing	17 of 30, 204 yds	13 of 28, 131 yds
Rushing	26 for 54 yds	49 for 250 yds
First downs	10	20
Third down	3 of 14	8 of 18
Fourth down	0 of 2	1 of 4
Turnovers	1	1
Penalties	15 for 104 yds	8 for 53 yds
Time of possession	23:25	36:35

Tulane leaders

Passing Kadin Semonza 11 of 21, 140 yds
Rushing Johnnie Daniels 8 for 31 yds; Maurice Turner 4 for 15 yds
Receiving Destyn Hill 5 for 67 yds; Maurice Turner 1 for 44 yds

Duke leaders

Passing Walker Eget 13 of 26, 131 yds
Rushing Nate Sheppard 35 for 227 yds, 2 TD; CJ Campbell 10 for 25 yds
Receiving Jonah Burton 3 for 38 yds; Jeremiah Hasley 2 for 36 yds

Kickoff came 1 hour 28 minutes late

77° at kickoff · no rain recorded

Thunder was reported at Raleigh / Durham airport (11 miles away) from 3:09 p.m. to 4:01 p.m., around the delay.

September game-day temperatures at Wallace Wade Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 15:00 left5:03 p.m.

Tulane 0, Duke 0 · Duke 76% to win

no rain · 77°

Eget run for a 9-yd loss, fumbles

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Durham - Duke North Heliport airport, 0.8 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Tulane · 11-3

Rated 75th in our preseason ratings.

L 10-41 @ Ole MissTop 25 #5 of 667

lost by 31 as a 16.5-point underdog

W 34-21 vs North TexasTop 25 #33 of 667

won by 13 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 27-0 vs Charlotte #234 of 667

won by 27 as a 31.5-point favorite

W 37-13 @ Temple #156 of 667

won by 24 as a 7.5-point favorite

W 35-24 vs Florida Atlantic #102 of 667

won by 11 as a 17.5-point favorite

W 38-32 @ MemphisTop 25 #42 of 667

won by 6 as a 3.5-point underdog

L 26-48 @ UTSA #67 of 667

lost by 22 as a 5.5-point favorite

W 24-17 vs Army #96 of 667

won by 7 as a 10.5-point favorite

W 26-19 vs East Carolina #65 of 667

won by 7 as a 6.5-point favorite

W 31-14 @ Tulsa #151 of 667

won by 17 as a 14.5-point favorite

L 10-45 @ Ole MissTop 25 #4 of 667

lost by 35 as an 11.5-point underdog

W 34-27 vs Duke #65 of 667

won by 7 as a 1.5-point underdog

W 33-31 @ South Alabama #79 of 667

won by 2 as a 13.5-point favorite

W 23-3 vs Northwestern #64 of 667

won by 20 as a 6.5-point favorite

Last three games · 2025 season

Duke · 9-5

Rated 67th in our preseason ratings.

W 42-39 vs Arizona StateTop 25 #53 of 667

won by 3 as a 4-point favorite

W 27-20 @ VirginiaTop 25 #40 of 667

won by 7 as a 3.5-point underdog

W 49-32 vs Wake Forest #48 of 667

won by 17 as a 2.5-point favorite

W 32-25 @ North Carolina #97 of 667

won by 7 as a 6.5-point favorite

L 17-34 vs VirginiaTop 25 #36 of 667

lost by 17 as a 5.5-point favorite

L 34-37 @ UConn #65 of 667

lost by 3 as a 7.5-point favorite

W 46-45 @ ClemsonTop 25 #26 of 667

won by 1 as a 4.5-point underdog

L 18-27 vs Georgia TechTop 25 #30 of 667

lost by 9 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 45-21 @ California #71 of 667

won by 24 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 38-3 @ Syracuse #67 of 667

won by 35 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 45-33 vs NC State #48 of 667

won by 12 as a 3.5-point favorite

L 27-34 @ TulaneTop 25 #50 of 667

lost by 7 as a 1.5-point favorite

L 19-45 vs IllinoisTop 25 #30 of 667

lost by 26 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 45-17 vs Elon #193 of 667

won by 28 as a 36.5-point favorite

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Tulane’s success rate against Duke, 64 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Tulane’s success rate against Duke’s defense
Tulane offense, 2nd percentile · Duke defense, 66th
Tulane’s rushing EPA against Duke’s defense
Tulane offense, 45th percentile · Duke defense, 89th
Tulane’s explosive plays against Duke’s defense
Tulane offense, 100th percentile · Duke defense, 76th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

TulaneDuke

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

The series is tied 3-3

6 meetings since 1964 · Tulane won the last meeting

2025Tulane 34-27
2015Duke 37-7
2014Duke 47-13
2011Duke 48-27
1973Tulane 24-17

Each line is Duke’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Duke fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (44th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

Duke favored by 9.5 · Total 51.5

How games like this usually go

Duke by 9.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Duke.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm, with rain. Feels like 82° at kickoff.

Tulane at Duke · Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026 · Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham

82°feels like at kickoff
0.03 inrain at kickoff
56weather score, Rough
Middleof the day's 7 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was in the middle of the day's seven kickoff times. At Wallace Wade Stadium that day, a 7:45 pm kickoff would have scored 97, against 56 at 3:30 pm.

noon: 31, Harsh
12:45 pm: 42, Harsh
2 pm: 44, Harsh
3:30 pm: 56, Rough (this game)
6 pm: 91, Comfortable
7 pm: 95, Comfortable
7:45 pm: 97, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Duke has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — +0.3 points (±4.3), home against road — 3rd percentile of FBS.

53% at home, 41% on the road against FBS opponents (24-21 home, 19-27 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.3 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 770 miles to get here.

Duke beats Tulane 17-3