2Temple: the fanbase's identity shifting.
K.C. Keeler begins his tenure at Temple, inheriting a 5-7 losing record and a program seeking to redefine its identity beyond its 2016 AAC championship legacy.
2K.C. Keeler begins his tenure at Temple, inheriting a 5-7 losing record and a program seeking to redefine its identity beyond its 2016 AAC championship legacy.
Temple is the North Philadelphia program that Matt Rhule dragged to an AAC title and a top-25 ranking, then watched slide back to the bottom — and is now handing the rebuild to a 275-win coach who refuses to be realistic about how fast the Owls can climb.
Fans are sick of being the program everyone treats as a coaching stepping-stone — the place a Rhule or an Addazio uses to get to the next job. They want Keeler's refusal to be realistic to mean Temple…
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · vs Rhode Island · Sat Sep 5 · 18:00 UTC
Temple is the American Athletic program whose 2016 10-4 + AAC championship under Matt Rhule + Lincoln Financial Field NFL-stadium-shared identity define what Philadelphia-G5-football looks like.
With a recruiting rank of #68 and a returning total pct of 100, Temple enters 2026 with strong continuity but limited incoming talent.
Hooter the Owl is patient.
the open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?
Keeler begins his first season with 100% production returning but a #113 talent rank — the Owls' last AAC title under Rhule feels like another era.
K.C. Keeler begins his tenure at Temple, inheriting a 5-7 losing record and a program seeking to redefine its identity beyond its 2016 AAC championship legacy.
Temple: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
Hunter Smith gets meaningfully MORE work in the fourth quarter with a lead than his overall workload would predict.
Hunter Smith sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.
Jovanni Bermudez is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Kajiya Hollawayne is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Peter Clarke is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Temple enters 2026 rated No. 88 in 2025 SP+ (-5.1), up 39 spots from 2024.
Kromah seeks fifth year eligibility
Kromah chasing a fifth year while K.C. Keeler's IOL room is already thin at #123 nationally — Temple can't afford to lose the depth it does have along that line.
Top 3 commits
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
65th percentile among FBS programs
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Temple · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
K.C. Keeler took over as Temple's head coach, replacing Everett Withers. It is the program's third head coach in five seasons. It's not the hire that's the story anymore — it's everything it set in motion. The room is genuinely divided — believers and skeptics both have receipts.
The 'this hire changes everything' takes -- new-era believers making the case early.
The 'show me the body of work' counter -- resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Temple: the fanbase's identity shifting.
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 193 of 528 board posts (37%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (108 posts): 14% positive · 77% neutral · 9% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
One of five. The film room is busy this week.
Opens Sep 5
vs Rhode Island · at home
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
PA leads the 2026 class with 10 commits. National footprint reaching 12 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
110 signees across 22 states, 2023-2026. PA leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
6 games with TV coverage: 3 ESPN, 1 cable, 2 streaming
Kickoff windows: 2 noon, 4 afternoon
Recovering 67% of their own fumbles — running hot vs. the ~51% league rate.
4 of 6 own fumbles recovered themselves; 6 of 10 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
Converting 16% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~19% league rate.
6 interceptions of 38 disrupted passes (32 deflected, 6 intercepted), 2025 only.
Losing the penalty battle: 60 penalties committed vs. 61 drawn on opponents, a 101-yard deficit.
603 penalty yards committed vs. 502 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 9 corners
One voice
Every cohort from the die-hards to the analytics crowd lands within 0.01 of each other — a rare consensus. The loudest voice in the room:
Ryder Burton looks to build on iconic upset as Uab’s QB1
underdogdynasty.com →How Temple fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
The room, end to end
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
~ our readTemple fans are cautiously optimistic, and they're backing it with about as much hard evidence as anyone.
✓ counted We read 108 posts from Temple fans this week.
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Fanbase Health Index · Temple · high confidence
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.27 EPA/play | 12 | 12 | 190 / 314 | 60.5 | 2098 | 6.7 | 25 #19 FBS | 2 | 141.6 | 59.7 | 7.4 | 4.3 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 97 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt7.0 bottom 35th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts INT rate0.6% 94th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 19th percentile to the 63rd among FBS QBs | |||||||||||||
| +0.39 EPA/play | 13 | 8 | 24 / 33 | 72.7 | 256 | 7.8 | 2 | 0 | 157.9 | 27.1 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.08 EPA/play | 20 | 12 | 157 | 809 | 5.2 | 7 | 55 | 12.4 | 17.6 | 13.9 | 11.9 | 11.7% (36/307) | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. The most common profile in its group this season — 186 of 349 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||||||||
| Speed Merchant · +0.02 EPA/play | 29 | 12 | 62 | 403 | 6.5 | 2 | 72 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 24.1 | 11.1 | — | |
Yards by week → Speed MerchantCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 48 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry7.5 98th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share8.8% bottom 33th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Hunter Smith's full player page | |||||||||||||
| +0.25 EPA/play | 26 | 8 | 28 | 167 | 6.0 | 1 | 29 | 2.5 | 9.1 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| +0.25 EPA/play | 25 | 4 | 23 | 71 | 3.1 | 1 | 23 | 5.5 | 10.8 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.46 EPA/play | 17 | 12 | 39 | 501 | 12.8 | 4 | 38 | 14.6 | 12.7 | 17.9% (55/307) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception11.8 bottom 35th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate10.3% 60th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jovanni Bermudez's full player page | |||||||||||
| Jump-Ball Target · +0.49 EPA/play | 11 | 11 | 39 | 489 | 12.5 | 6 #62 FBS | 46 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 18.9% (58/307) | |
Yards by week → Jump-Ball TargetWins contested catches at the goal line. Size and catch radius are the weapons. 29 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TD rate15.4% 87th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume39 59th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 0th percentile to the 61st among FBS WRs | |||||||||||
| Move TE · +0.93 EPA/play | 88 | 11 | 30 | 483 | 16.1 | 6 #62 FBS | 50 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 12.7% (39/307) | |
Yards by week → Move TELined up out wide as often as inline. Creates mismatches downfield. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 34 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception16.6 95th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate20.0% 92th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Peter Clarke's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.34 EPA/play | 81 | 12 | 40 | 414 | 10.3 | 4 | 42 | 16.1 | 13.2 | 20.2% (62/307) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · junior View Colin Chase's full player page | |||||||||||
| +4.03 EPA/play | 86 | 3 | 5 | 85 | 17 | 1 | 46 | 10.7 | 8.8 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · -0.10 EPA/play | 33 | 9 | 13 | 60 | 4.6 | 3 | 19 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 7.2% (22/307) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception4.4 bottom 4th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate23.1% 97th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ryder Kusch's full player page | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Versatile End | 92 | 9 | 29 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 139 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate6.9% bottom 12th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Khalil Poteat's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 56 | 11 | 22 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · junior our readBreakout: his CFB Index score went from the 14th percentile among FBS IDLs to the 49th | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 97 | 11 | 21 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight310 lb 83th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score went from the 14th percentile among FBS IDLs to the 48th | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 58 | 5 | 14 | 10 | 4.5 | 3 | 0 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate32.1% 97th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Sekou Kromah's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 98 | 8 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate7.7% bottom 23th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Joseph Auzenne's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 52 | 9 | 13 | 6 | 3.5 | 1 | 0 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate26.9% 90th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Russell Sykes IV's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 40 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 6 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2020 class our readFading: his CFB Index score moved from the 44th to 14th percentile among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| 88 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 55 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 33 | 12 | 69 | 40 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 78th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Curly Ordonez's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 18 | 10 | 44 | 23 | 21 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2024 class View Katin Surprenant's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 22 | 11 | 44 | 19 | 25 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2024 class View Eric Stuart's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 25 | 12 | 32 | 19 | 13 | 10.5 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate32.8% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate15.6% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 83rd percentile among FBS LBs, up from the 22nd | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 44 | 9 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume21 bottom 15th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tyree Alualu's full player page | |||||||||
| 30 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 10 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 35 | 7 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 93 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 36 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 29 | 11 | 54 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume54 71th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Avery Powell's full player page | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 19 | 11 | 45 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Perimeter TacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 42 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume45 87th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jaylen Castleberry's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 15 | 9 | 40 | 2 | 0 | 2.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · senior View Javier Morton's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 31 | 10 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 14th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Dontae Pollard's full player page | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 24 | 12 | 30 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ball HawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 44 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate23.3% 84th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 75th percentile among FBS CBs, up from the 32nd | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 16 | 10 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate4.3% bottom 31th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Pooh Lawton's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 14 | 6 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate10.0% 60th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 4th percentile among FBS Ss to the 23rd | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 13 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 141 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate10.0% bottom 36th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Denzel Chavis's full player page | |||||||
| 23 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 32 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 27 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 42 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 98 | 12 | 11/14 | 78.6 | 40/40 | 73 | 52 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinner | 37 | 12 | 62 | 2615 | 42.2 | 60 | 27 | 1 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.47 EPA/play | 89 | 8 | 12 | 206 | 17.2 | 0 | 28 |
| Speed Merchant · +0.02 EPA/play | 29 | 12 | 5 | 91 | 18.2 | 0 | 24 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.46 EPA/play | 17 | 12 | 10 | 150 | 15 | 0 | 37 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+16 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #79 | #134 | -1.5 | @Massachusetts | W 42–10 128 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #85 | #201 | -27.5 | Howard | W 55–7 112 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #73 | #18 | +24.5 | Oklahoma | L 3–42 132 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #75 | #42 | +24.5 | @Georgia Tech | L 24–45 129 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #82 | #32 | +6.5 | UTSA | W 27–21 124 | 3-2 | 1-0 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #88 | #41 | +10.5 | Navy | L 31–32 129 | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #79 | #225 | -9.5 | @Charlotte | W 49–14 53 | 4-3 | 2-1 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #72 | #148 | -5 | @Tulsa | W 38–37 144 | 5-3 | 3-1 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #84 | #60 | +5 | East Carolina | L 14–45 130 | 5-4 | 3-2 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #111 | #77 | +7 | @Army | L 13–14 112 | 5-5 | 3-3 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #104 | #62 | +7.5 | Tulane | L 13–37 125 | 5-6 | 3-4 |
| 14 | Nov 28 | #121 | #35 | +20.5 | @North Texas | L 25–52 134 | 5-7 | 3-5 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28 | @North Texas | L 25–52 | 316 | 1 | 31:02 | +0.115 | 40.3% | 112.0% | Defense's roughest night |
| Nov 22 | Tulane | L 13–37 | 204 | 1 | 25:39 | +0.015 | 33.9% | 109.0% | |
| Nov 8 | @Army | L 13–14 | 268 | 0 | 22:22 | +0.232 | 48.9% | 89.0% | One-score loss |
| Nov 1 | East Carolina | L 14–45 | 233 | 1 | 28:33 | +0.005 | 37.5% | 108.9% | Blowout loss |
| Oct 25 | @Tulsa | W 38–37 | 447 | 0 | 31:48 | +0.112 | 48.6% | 118.0% | One-score win |
| Oct 18 | @Charlotte | W 49–14 | 384 | 0 | 25:16 | +0.384 | 56.8% | 120.3% | Blowout win |
| Oct 11 | Navy | L 31–32 | 520 | 1 | 34:02 | +0.383 | 50.0% | 127.5% | One-score loss |
| Oct 4 | UTSA | W 27–21 | 309 | 0 | 27:41 | +0.092 | 30.0% | 128.2% | One-score win |
| Sep 20 | @Georgia Tech | L 24–45 | 328 | 0 | 37:29 | -0.038 | 33.9% | 103.5% | |
| Sep 13 | Oklahoma | L 3–42 | 105 | 0 | 27:44 | -0.248 | 18.9% | 127.0% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 6 | Howard | W 55–7 | 562 | 0 | 36:14 | +0.558 | 59.1% | 143.0% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Aug 30 | @Massachusetts | W 42–10 | 467 | 0 | 33:46 | +0.475 | 52.3% | 129.7% | Best defensive stand |
| Season average (12 games) | 345 | 0.3 | +0.174 | 42.5% | 118.0% | ||||
Temple fields a capable methodical, ball-control offense behind a porous defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
70th percentile quality, 34th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 13th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 17th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
85th percentile success on standard downs, 22nd on passing downs — a 63-point gap between the two.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 49th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 82nd — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.17; 58th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.04. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.52 raw vs. 0.10 adjusted.
Temple reads strongest in passing epa (top 24%) and explosive plays allowed (top 42%); the crux lives in rushing epa allowed, where Temple sits at the 6th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · Temple
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Temple · 2018-present
50% home win rate vs 23% on the road. margin runs +11.4 better at home. Lincoln Financial Field seats 69,879, averaging 22% full (15,602 attendance, 25 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Jevyon Ducker and Hunter Smith split the carries (153/207 vs 54/207) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Colin Chase (WR) and Peter Clarke (TE) split the targets (60/96 vs 36/96) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Peter Clarke is the one who gets the ball in the red zone; Peter Clarke produces in bigger chunks.
What changed
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved down 6 points. The rest held closer to steady.
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved down 6 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, Temple’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (67.7% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 85-play sample) — mid-pack, 101 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
65°F average kickoff temp; 5% of games had measurable precipitation; 9 mph average wind.
Based on 73 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
Temple's 2014–2025 record is 67-79. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 1927 · 91 seasons · .411 win rate
Matt Rhule won an AAC title at Temple and left for Baylor. The program that followed used two and three wins. K.C. Keeler — 275 career victories — took over in 2025, went 5-7, and lost zero starters to the transfer portal afterward. 'Temple Made' is a code, not a slogan.
The best version of this program lived between 2015 and 2016, when Matt Rhule built back-to-back ten-win seasons, knocked off Penn State for the first time since 1941, and won the AAC championship. That version of Temple was a live argument: a North Philadelphia commuter school in an NFL stadium, playing physical football with overlooked players and producing a winning program in a city that belonged to the Eagles and the Phillies. Then Rhule left for Baylor, and the program bled out — two- and three-win seasons that erased almost everything he built.
K.C. Keeler's pitch is the clearest possible counter-argument: a 275-game career winner, a coach who built Sam Houston into an FCS power and won at the FBS level, a man who announced when he took the Temple job that he had no interest in being realistic. The 5-7 first season is a platform, not a ceiling, and his roster held together — no starters lost through the portal, a Penn State QB transfer in Jaxon Smolik added to the room. That retention alone is a data point; programs in the middle of the American don't usually hold their full roster through a losing year.
The 2026 question is how fast the architecture becomes results. The American Athletic is a league where a healthy roster and a competent staff can build to eight or nine wins in year two. Temple has done it before. The question is whether Keeler's version of 'Temple Made' can get there before the patience of a fanbase that remembers the Rhule years runs out.
Philadelphia blue-collar — physical, defense-first, chip-on-the-shoulder football that mirrors the city it's built in. Keeler's program emphasizes toughness and retention over splashy portal additions, building with overlooked players who absorb coaching quickly. Lincoln Financial Field, shared with the Eagles, gives Temple a big-league stage; the identity demands the program play like it earned the venue rather than borrowed it.
Temple 2016–2025. Slipping -1.8 rungs across the last 10 seasons. Slope -0.35 rungs / year — moving down the prestige scale.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 5-7
Temple: Below .500 in FBS play. The rebuild bar.
American Athletic Standing · 2025
Temple is 10th of 14 in the American Athletic at 3-5. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navy | 8-1 |
| 2 | Tulane | 8-1 |
| 3 | North Texas | 7-2 |
| 4 | East Carolina | 6-2 |
| 5 | South Florida | 6-2 |
| 6 | Memphis | 4-4 |
| 7 | UTSA | 4-4 |
| 8 | Army | 4-5 |
| 9 | Florida Atlantic | 3-5 |
| 10 | Temple | 3-5 |
| 11 | Rice | 2-6 |
| 12 | UAB | 2-6 |
| 13 | Tulsa | 1-7 |
| 14 | Charlotte | 0-8 |
Coaching Era · Temple
K.C. Keeler in year 2 of the rebuild. The methodology is taking shape.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 2013
Matt Rhule's 2013-2016 tenure produced the modern peak — 2016 10-4 + AAC championship + Military Bowl appearance. Rhule's program-building methodology + recruiting reach + coaching-tree influence (P.J. Fleck connection) made the era nationally relevant. Rhule's 2017 departure to Baylor (then Carolina Panthers, Nebraska) took the methodology with him.
since 2003
Temple plays home games at Lincoln Financial Field — the Philadelphia Eagles' NFL stadium. The 69,000 capacity + shared venue + Philadelphia setting + the modern professional facility + Eagles co-tenancy create a venue distinct from on-campus G5 venues. The shared identity occasionally produces venue scheduling conflicts.
since 2010s
'Temple Made' — the program's contemporary defiance-rooted mantra — captures the Philadelphia-G5-academic identity. The phrase emerged during the Matt Rhule era + remained through subsequent coaching changes. The two-word phrase compactly encapsulates institutional pride + Philadelphia football identity.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2015
Temple knocks off rival Penn State for the first time since 1941 in front of a packed Lincoln Financial Field
Temple wins the conference title under Matt Rhule — the program's modern high point
2022
A run of two- and three-win seasons that erased the late-2010s gains
Wound
Moment of the Year · Temple · 2025
Week 3 of 2025. A reckoning loss — the data point the next season must answer.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2019 — loss 13-55 (home). Last 5 postseason: 1-4.
NFL Draft Pipeline
2024–20241 picks last 5 cycles. Roster development still maturing.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
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