Florida Atlantic4-82Zach Kittley begins his tenure at Florida Atlantic with a 4-8 losing record, signaling a rebuild for a program defined by its 2017 Conference USA championship and Schnellenberger legacy.
Florida Atlantic is the beach-campus program that touched the top of the sport for one Kiffin-blessed season — and has spent every year since trying to find its way back to paradise.
Owls fans know how the program gets framed — a sunny pit stop where good coaches audition for bigger jobs. They believe Boca is worth building at, not just leaving from, and they're tired of being tre…
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · at Florida · Sat Sep 5 · 23:45 UTC
Florida Atlantic is the American Athletic program whose Lane Kiffin 2017 11-3 + Conference USA championship + Howard Schnellenberger founding define what Boca-Raton-FBS-newcomer-football looks like.
With only 21% of returning players and a heavy reliance on transfers, Florida Atlantic's 2026 season hinges on integrating new talent. The team's depth class ranking at #130 suggests limited recruiting strength.
Owlsley the Owl is patient.
the open questionis the portal class enough to move the needle?
Drew Devillier arrives at Florida Atlantic as the top QB transfer in a No. 1 American Athletic portal class — Kittley’s first move to reshape a program built on portal reinvention.
Zach Kittley begins his tenure at Florida Atlantic with a 4-8 losing record, signaling a rebuild for a program defined by its 2017 Conference USA championship and Schnellenberger legacy.
Easton Messer is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
Jayshon Platt is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Jayshon Platt: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
Kaden Shields-Dutton: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
Zach Kittley begins his tenure with a 4-8 losing record to inherit, facing the challenge of rebuilding a program historically defined by Kiffin's 2017 success and Schnellenberger's founding.
Zach Kittley begins his first season at Florida Atlantic with just 21% production returning, inheriting a program defined by Lane Kiffin’s early success and now facing its fourth coach in five years.
Kittley's second straight top-10 portal class continues FAU's identity-defining rebuild with Johnson and Garcia II filling critical CB and WR gaps after a 4-8 season.
2027 recruit decommits from FAU
CB depth was already a pressure point at #85 nationally — losing a 2027 piece before the class even sets stings more than the star rating suggests.
Taylor Minnick promoted to assistant coach
Kittley builds from inside — promoting Minnick keeps continuity in a staff still finding its footing while a top-77 transfer class and CB depth pressure demand coaches who already know the room.
Top 3 commits
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Florida Atlantic · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Florida Atlantic signed a top-28 transfer-portal class — 38 additions headlined by Caden Veltkamp (QB) from Western Kentucky and Zach Gibson (QB) from Georgia State. It is a top-2 portal class in the American Athletic this cycle. Portal pickups don't redshirt. The coverage sees this as a targeted, ready-to-contribute class built for snap competition, not depth-chart filler. The coverage reads this as a credible, targeted haul.
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
The 'portal class fills the gaps' believers -- upgrades at real positions of need.
The 'portal is a gamble' counter -- departure losses and the 'plug-and-play doesn't work' read.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Only 14 of 93 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Florida Atlantic: the fanbase's identity shifting.
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Only 11 of 93 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
One of five. The film room is busy this week.
Opens Sep 5
vs Florida · away
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
FL leads the 2026 class with 6 commits. National footprint reaching 9 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
78 signees across 13 states, 2023-2026. FL leads the pull.
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
4 games with TV coverage: 1 ESPN, 1 cable, 1 conference network, 1 streaming
Kickoff windows: 1 noon, 1 afternoon, 2 primetime
The bounces haven't gone their way on their own fumbles: 47% recovered, vs. ~51% expected.
8 of 17 own fumbles recovered themselves; 5 of 11 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
Deflections without payoff: 7% of disrupted passes intercepted, vs. ~19% league-wide.
3 interceptions of 41 disrupted passes (38 deflected, 3 intercepted), 2025 only.
The flags have favored them: 90 penalties drawn on opponents vs. 79 committed, 133 yards to the good.
672 penalty yards committed vs. 805 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
What little we hear
Only 2 cohort(s) cleared the signal floor this week, so we won’t stage a split we can’t back. Here’s the honest read:
~ our readNot enough Florida Atlantic chatter this week to read the room.
We read 23 Florida Atlantic posts this week — not enough to call the room. Check back during the season.
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Fanbase Health Index · Florida Atlantic · high confidence
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Manager · +0.22 EPA/play | 10 | 12 | 345 / 514 | 67.1 | 3652 #8 FBS | 7.1 | 24 #24 FBS | 17 | 135.6 | 54.5 | 6.1 | 3.7 | |
Yards by week → Game ManagerConsistent underneath passer who protects the lead. Rarely loses games; rarely wins them alone. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 9 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Completion %67.7% 78th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush usage13.6% bottom 22th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Caden Veltkamp's full player page | |||||||||||||
| +1.48 EPA/play | 7 | 6 | 31 / 53 | 58.5 | 323 | 6.1 | 3 | 3 | 117.0 | 60.2 | 4.7 | 0 | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satellite Back · +0.03 EPA/play | 23 | 12 | 105 | 465 | 4.4 | 0 | 37 | 13 | 15.2 | 13.6 | 11.7 | 8.6% (44/512) | |
Yards by week → Satellite BackDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 50 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Receiving share27.6% 99th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate0.0% bottom 6th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint View Gemari Sands's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Satellite Back · +0.16 EPA/play | 28 | 11 | 83 | 460 | 5.5 | 6 | 50 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 17.9 | 5.3% (27/512) | |
Yards by week → Satellite BackDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 50 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Receiving share17.0% 80th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate7.2% 87th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kaden Shields-Dutton's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Satellite Back · -0.08 EPA/play | 25 | 5 | 54 | 161 | 3.0 | 1 | 14 | 15.9 | 11.6 | 20 | 6 | 3.1% (16/512) | |
Yards by week → Satellite BackDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. 50 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Receiving share19.4% 89th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / carry3.1 bottom 3th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Xavier Terrell's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.63 EPA/play | 8 | 12 | 100 | 1029 #16 FBS | 10.3 | 6 #62 FBS | 55 | 10.1 | 12.4 | 22.9% (117/512) | |
Yards by week → Slot Technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The rare part: the passing game runs through him — and every touch moves the offense, too 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume100 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Total EPA (college ability)62.2 99th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like our readTwo-star recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile our readSustained Ascent: his CFB Index score shows two real climbs in a row — 64th to 84th to 98th percentile among FBS WRs | |||||||||||
| Slot Technician · +0.41 EPA/play | — | 12 | 69 | 726 | 10.5 | 5 | 44 | 15.4 | 13.4 | 16.8% (86/512) | |
Yards by week → Slot TechnicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume69 97th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Yards / reception10.8 bottom 24th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Asaad Waseem's full player page | |||||||||||
| Slot Technician · +0.57 EPA/play | 3 | 12 | 46 | 720 | 15.7 | 5 | 48 | 7.7 | 10.3 | 14.3% (73/512) | |
Yards by week → Slot TechnicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume46 73th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Plays like View Jayshon Platt's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.61 EPA/play | 9 | 12 | 40 | 575 | 14.4 | 4 | 90 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 11.7% (60/512) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · junior our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 69th percentile among FBS WRs, up from the 0th | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.97 EPA/play | 19 | 8 | 12 | 177 | 14.8 | 0 | 33 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 3.3% (17/512) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception15.4 72th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)1.0 97th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Branden Hoch's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.49 EPA/play | 5 | 8 | 15 | 166 | 11.1 | 3 | 37 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 4.7% (24/512) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception10.0 bottom 20th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate20.0% 97th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jabari Smith's full player page | |||||||||||
| Move TE · +0.81 EPA/play | 89 | 7 | 15 | 159 | 10.6 | 3 | 41 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.5% (18/512) | |
Yards by week → Move TELined up out wide as often as inline. Creates mismatches downfield. 34 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception14.9 86th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate20.0% 92th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Michael Kirch's full player page | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nose Anchor | 9 | 12 | 35 | 19 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 0 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight310 lb 83th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 37th to 62nd percentile among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 11 | 11 | 32 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate3.1% bottom 11th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score went from the 5th percentile among FBS IDLs to the 65th | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 2 | 9 | 29 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · sophomore our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 14th to 38th percentile among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 7 | 10 | 24 | 12 | 4 | 1.5 | 3 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · senior View Bryce Langston's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 1 | 10 | 24 | 9 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 2 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate27.1% 91th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Cecil Doggette Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 5 | 11 | 23 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. The most common profile in its group this season — 139 of 200 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · junior our readBreakout: his CFB Index score moved from the 13th to 62nd percentile among FBS EDGEs | |||||||
| Versatile End | 10 | 9 | 20 | 9 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 139 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate12.5% bottom 26th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 13th percentile among FBS EDGEs to the 32nd | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 15 | 9 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate8.3% bottom 25th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tyclean Luman's full player page | |||||||
| 13 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 62 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 92 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 44 | 12 | 86 | 42 | 44 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · junior our readBounce-Back: his CFB Index score shows a real arc: 21st percentile among FBS LBs, fell to 0th, now back up to 59th | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 6 | 10 | 83 | 38 | 45 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · junior our readBreakout: his CFB Index score climbed from the 1st percentile to the 69th among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 30 | 11 | 41 | 29 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.7 97th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Khmari Johnson's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 28 | 8 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.7 95th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume22 bottom 15th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Zyere Horton's full player page | |||||||||
| Versatile End | 96 | 11 | 22 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 139 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate22.7% 61th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Josh Roberts's full player page | |||||||||
| 43 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid Nickel | 19 | 10 | 62 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · senior our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 36th percentile among FBS Ss to the 62nd | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 20 | 11 | 47 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · senior our readBreakout: his CFB Index score went from the 2nd percentile among FBS Ss to the 47th | |||||||
| Rover | 27 | 11 | 42 | 8 #45 FBS | 1 | 4 | 0 |
RoverHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate19.0% 93th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 26 | 11 | 41 | 4 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · junior View Jayden Sweeney's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | — | 10 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate13.3% 76th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Damarius McGhee's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 23 | 9 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate4.3% bottom 31th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Damon Allen's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 8 | 11 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 141 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate9.5% bottom 34th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Chris Tooley III's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | — | 8 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate25.0% 99th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score went from the 54th percentile among FBS Ss to the 14th | |||||||
| 18 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 22 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 25 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 37 | 12 | 16/19 | 84.2 | 36/36 | 84 | 49 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinner | 19 | 12 | 28 | 1256 | 44.9 | 62 | 14 | 0 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.57 EPA/play | 3 | 12 | 24 | 608 | 25.3 | 0 | 53 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.63 EPA/play | 8 | 12 | 12 | 250 | 20.8 | 0 | 60 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+23 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #158 | #100 | +12.5 | @Maryland | L 7–39 171 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #146 | #152 | -21.5 | Florida A&M | W 56–14 143 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #143 | #100 | +1.5 | @Florida International | L 28–38 146 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #136 | #53 | +13.5 | Memphis | L 26–55 145 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #147 | #95 | +4.5 | @Rice | W 27–21 131 | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #132 | #130 | -5.5 | UAB | W 53–33 131 | 3-3 | 2-1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #122 | #16 | +20.5 | @South Florida | L 13–48 164 | 3-4 | 2-2 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #129 | #44 | +14.5 | @Navy | L 32–42 150 | 3-5 | 2-3 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #128 | #135 | -4.5 | Tulsa | W 40–21 156 | 4-5 | 3-3 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #117 | #62 | +17.5 | @Tulane | L 24–35 150 | 4-6 | 3-4 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #116 | #65 | +5.5 | UConn | L 45–48 166 | 4-7 | 3-4 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #113 | #53 | +7 | East Carolina | L 3–42 159 | 4-8 | 3-5 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29 | East Carolina | L 3–42 | 338 | 5 | 34:39 | -0.247 | 35.1% | 123.6% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Nov 22 | UConn | L 45–48 | 687 | 2 | 27:32 | +0.466 | 47.8% | 163.0% | Most explosive |
| Nov 15 | @Tulane | L 24–35 | 472 | 4 | 30:20 | +0.105 | 51.1% | 107.1% | |
| Nov 8 | Tulsa | W 40–21 | 420 | 1 | 23:13 | +0.234 | 39.0% | 158.3% | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 25 | @Navy | L 32–42 | 450 | 3 | 26:46 | +0.212 | 39.0% | 142.6% | |
| Oct 18 | @South Florida | L 13–48 | 312 | 1 | 31:26 | +0.095 | 31.0% | 148.8% | Blowout loss |
| Oct 11 | UAB | W 53–33 | 494 | 1 | 24:47 | +0.470 | 44.9% | 160.1% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 4 | @Rice | W 27–21 | 393 | 2 | 28:46 | +0.203 | 41.4% | 147.2% | One-score win |
| Sep 27 | Memphis | L 26–55 | 397 | 1 | 28:48 | +0.218 | 40.5% | 122.8% | Blowout loss |
| Sep 13 | @Florida International | L 28–38 | 478 | 3 | 26:05 | +0.139 | 37.0% | 149.1% | |
| Sep 6 | Florida A&M | W 56–14 | 553 | 0 | 29:45 | +0.400 | 53.8% | 123.5% | Best success rate |
| Aug 30 | @Maryland | L 7–39 | 354 | 6 | 30:26 | -0.228 | 25.3% | 161.3% | Blowout loss |
| Season average (12 games) | 446 | 2.4 | +0.172 | 40.5% | 142.3% | ||||
Florida Atlantic fields a capable pass-first, explosive, big-play offense behind a porous defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
62nd percentile quality, 59th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 67th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 87th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
44th percentile success on standard downs, 61st on passing downs — a 17-point gap between the two.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 70th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 58th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.17; 58th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.04. The widest gap came in week 1: -0.23 raw vs. -0.01 adjusted.
Florida Atlantic reads strongest in explosive plays (top 5%) and passing epa (top 31%); the crux lives in rushing epa allowed, where Florida Atlantic sits at the 6th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · Florida Atlantic
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Florida Atlantic · 2018-present
60% home win rate vs 28% on the road. margin runs +11.6 better at home. FAU Stadium seats 29,419, averaging 65% full (19,134 attendance, 23 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Gemari Sands and Kaden Shields-Dutton split the carries (103/182 vs 79/182) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Kaden Shields-Dutton produces in bigger chunks.
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Easton Messer (WR) and Michael Kirch (TE) split the targets (116/132 vs 16/132) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
What changed
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved up 9 points. The rest held closer to steady.
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved up 19 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Season by season
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, Florida Atlantic’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.4% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 134-play sample) — mid-pack, 109 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
81°F average kickoff temp; 23% of games had measurable precipitation; 11 mph average wind.
Based on 73 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
Florida Atlantic's 2014–2025 record is 62-82. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 2002 · 24 seasons · .443 win rate
Howard Schnellenberger built FAU from nothing in 2001 and promised it would one day play for championships. Lane Kiffin delivered a ranked, conference-winning season in 2017. Every year since has been the search for what comes after the proof.
Florida Atlantic is the program built on a genuinely improbable origin story: a Hall of Fame coach came out of retirement to start a football team from scratch on a beach campus in Boca Raton, three miles from the Atlantic, and within six seasons it was winning the New Orleans Bowl. Schnellenberger didn't just build a team — he staked a premise, that 'Winning in Paradise' was a real thing, that a Boca campus and Florida sun could recruit and sustain a program worth caring about.
Lane Kiffin made the premise look true for one perfect year. The 2017 Owls went 11-3, won Conference USA, cracked the AP top 25, and blew out McKneese in the Boca Raton Bowl — everything the founding promised delivered in a single season. Then Kiffin left for Ole Miss, and the carousel started. Zach Kittley arrived in 2025 to bring his high-tempo Air Raid offense to Boca and went 4-8 in year one — the kind of record that reopens every argument about whether location is a reason to build here or just a reason to visit.
Kittley enters 2026 in year two, and the question the season will answer is simple and uncomfortable: is FAU the program Schnellenberger imagined — a destination where coaches stay and build — or the launchpad Owls fans are tired of being told it is? The paradise is real. The program's ability to hold anyone in it is still the open question.
Kittley's Air Raid: up-tempo, four-wide, vertical distribution built on pre-snap motion and quick reads. The system produces big passing numbers when it has the right quarterback operating it — the scheme is the identity, not the athletes, which makes it replicable year to year and fragile in rebuilding years. FAU's task is finding the quarterback who unlocks what 2017 proved the pieces can do.
Florida Atlantic 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (-0.13 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 2.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 4-8
Florida Atlantic: Below .500 in FBS play. The rebuild bar.
American Athletic Standing · 2025
Florida Atlantic is 9th of 14 in the American Athletic at 3-5. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navy | 8-1 |
| 2 | Tulane | 8-1 |
| 3 | North Texas | 7-2 |
| 4 | East Carolina | 6-2 |
| 5 | South Florida | 6-2 |
| 6 | Memphis | 4-4 |
| 7 | UTSA | 4-4 |
| 8 | Army | 4-5 |
| 9 | Florida Atlantic | 3-5 |
| 10 | Temple | 3-5 |
| 11 | Rice | 2-6 |
| 12 | UAB | 2-6 |
| 13 | Tulsa | 1-7 |
| 14 | Charlotte | 0-8 |
Coaching Era · Florida Atlantic
Zach Kittley in year 2 of the rebuild. The methodology is taking shape.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 2001
Howard Schnellenberger — Miami national championship-winning coach (1983) — founded the Florida Atlantic football program in 2001 + coached through 2011. The Schnellenberger-as-program-founder narrative + his Hall of Fame coaching career + the rapid ascent (FCS 2001 → FBS 2005 → first bowl 2007) make FAU's institutional story unique.
since 2017
Lane Kiffin's 2017 11-3 + Conference USA championship + Boca Raton Bowl championship + #24 final AP — his first year as head coach — was the program's modern peak. The 'Mango Bowl' (Kiffin's nickname for the C-USA title game) + Devin Singletary 32-touchdown season + Lance Taylor as OC made the 2017 era nationally relevant.
since 2017
'Winning In Paradise' — Lane Kiffin's recruiting + identity tagline — captures the Boca Raton Florida beach-life-meets-football identity. The phrase appears in tweets + recruiting + alumni events + the South Florida cultural overlap make FAU's identity uniquely beach-paradise-football.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2007
FAU wins the New Orleans Bowl just six seasons into existence
Kiffin's Owls go 11-3, win Conference USA, and crack the AP top 25
2019
The architect of the peak departs, beginning the post-Kiffin drift
Wound
Moment of the Year · Florida Atlantic · 2025
Week 8 of 2025. A reckoning loss — the data point the next season must answer.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2020 — loss 10-25 (home). Last 5 postseason: 2-1.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Florida Atlantic · Next-Season Outcome Band
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Fanbase Health Index · Florida Atlantic · high confidence
2025 stat leaders
How They Play · 2025
Most Similar Programs · Florida Atlantic
Season Standing · 2025 · 4-8
Coaching Era · Florida Atlantic
Moment of the Year · Florida Atlantic · 2025
Bowl / Postseason Ledger