Home Conferences FBS 2026 season

American Athletic

After the Raid

SMU holds the AAC's highest SP+ rating entering 2026. Navy has the coaching premium story and the 11-2 record. South Florida and East Carolina each overperform by +49. Does the conference find a path to a CFP berth behind SMU — or does Navy's option offense become the symbol of how Group of Five programs survive when recruiting falls short?

American Athletic is outperforming its raw power profile. The league body of work is stronger than the market would expect.

#7overall

#7in FBS

+5.3RR50

+9.6upper strength

14teams

1top-25 teams

American Athletic, at a glance.

Top 10 by power rating — last season final records.

Team Power Record RR50

South Florida

0-0 +12.4

UTSA

0-0 +10.8

Memphis

0-0 +9.3

Navy

0-0 +8.3

East Carolina

0-0 +7.5

Tulane

0-0 +7.3

Army

0-0 +6.8

North Texas

0-0 +6.1

Temple

0-0 +2.2

Tulsa

0-0 +1.5

Power snapshot Projected 2026 standing

After the Raid

Navy went 11-2 in 2025 with a recruiting class ranked #131 nationally — a +97 coaching premium that is the largest of any program in the AAC and one of the largest in FBS. The service academy option offense produced eleven wins against a schedule that included Power Four programs. At the same time, SMU holds the conference's highest SP+ rating (#14) with a #31 recruiting class. The AAC's best story in 2026 involves players who can't transfer to the portal and a program that wins because of scheme, not stars.

1 top-25 team.

The depth argument for this conference rests on how many credible opponents are clustered behind the leader. The gap between the top and bottom is narrow — a sign of genuine parity.

The question heading into 2026.

Tools Matchup Simulator Compare Teams Playoff Forecast Style map Head to head Power map

The Conference Leader

SMU Holds the AAC's Best SP+ Rating at #14

SMU enters 2026 with the highest SP+ rating in the conference (#14 nationally) and a 9-4 record in 2025. Their recruiting class ranked #31 nationally — the conference's best — gives them the talent floor the AAC needs to earn committee respect. Whether SMU converts that into a New Year's Six bid, or whether the conference's bottom tier drags down the strength-of-schedule argument, is the defining question for the program and the league.

Why it matters →

The Premium Story

Navy Went 11-2 With the 131st Recruiting Class

Navy's coaching premium is +97 — the gap between their #131 recruiting rank and their #34 SP+ rating. Eleven wins in 2025 without a single player who could enter the transfer portal and get picked up by a P4 program at will. The option offense, the culture, the walk-on development: Navy's formula for winning doesn't scale to the national title conversation, but it produces results that the recruiting rankings never predict.

Why it matters →

The Surprise

South Florida and East Carolina Both Went 9-4

South Florida (+49 coaching premium, sp#16) and East Carolina (+49, sp#28) both went 9-4 in 2025 — two programs that recruit in the 65th-to-77th national range and play like conference title contenders. In an AAC without Memphis at 10-2 (they went 8-5) or Cincinnati dominating (they went 7-6 with a #61 class), the mid-tier surprise performers are carrying the conference's identity. USF in Tampa and ECU in Greenville are the stories that don't get told enough.

Active arcs our read

Developing2wk ago

LSU and Tulane Set for Renewed Rivalry in 2030

Will the return of the Battle for the Rag signal a new era of competition between LSU and Tulane?

Tulane

Developing1wk ago

Kentucky vs Mississippi State Prediction Game Preview - College Football News

Will East Carolina's performance against Charlotte impact their season outlook?

East Carolina

Developing6wk ago

Virginia Tech hires Florida Atlantic's Brian White as new athletic director

How will Brian White's leadership impact Virginia Tech's athletics program?

Florida Atlantic

Developing5wk ago

East Carolina legend Chris Johnson reveals ALS diagnosis

How will the football community support Johnson during his battle?

East Carolina

All arcs →

Fan pulse Last 30 days · 633 mentions

18% positive 64% neutral 18% negative

Temple

→ neutral

North Texas

↓ negative

Charlotte

→ neutral

Tulane

→ neutral

South Florida

↑ positive

UTSA

→ neutral

Fan confidence — FBS percentile

Where each American Athletic program stands nationally in fan sentiment (100th = most positive in FBS, 0 = least). Conference median: 64th percentile.

Bullish+18

Bullish-6

Bullish-11

Bullish+3

Bullish+8

Bullish–

Leaning+6

Leaning+9

Leaning-7

Mixed–

Mixed-4

Mixed-21

Souring-29

Souring-73

Rivalry face-offs

Army-Navy Game

Army vs Navy

Fan face-off →

The coaching premium

Recruiting class rank vs. SP+ performance — where coaches add or subtract value

Above line = coaching premium

Below line = underperforming

Gap = recruiting rank minus SP+ rank

Positive gap means the coaching staff won more than the recruiting class predicted. Data: American Athletic teams, 14 programs.

Standings

2026 final — sorted by power rating. Stature tag = interim Zeitgeist calibration (medium confidence).

#	Team	Record	RR50	Resume
1	South Florida National Program III#71	0-0	+12.4	+92.0
2	UTSA National Program II#57	0-0	+10.8	+88.9
3	Memphis National Program II#48	0-0	+9.3	+84.8
4	Navy National Program III#70	0-0	+8.3	+82.4
5	East Carolina Regional Program I#84	0-0	+7.5	+79.6
6	Tulane National Program II#60	0-0	+7.3	+78.9
7	Army Regional Program I#82	0-0	+6.8	+76.5
8	North Texas Regional Program III#100	0-0	+6.1	+74.4
9	Temple Regional Program IV#116	0-0	+2.2	+64.0
10	Tulsa Regional Program III#104	0-0	+1.5	+60.2
11	UAB Regional Program III#103	0-0	+0.5	+54.3
12	Florida Atlantic Regional Program III#105	0-0	+0.2	+52.6
13	Rice Regional Program V#131	0-0	-1.5	+43.9
14	Charlotte Regional Program V#130	0-0	-3.4	+30.4

Projected Standings · American Athletic · 2026

Win Projection

Odds of winning at least N conference games from current power ratings — full slate played out, not locked to results. AVG = expected wins; W–L = most-likely record.

#	Team	W–L	PWR	AVG	≥8	≥7	≥6	≥5	≥4	≥3	≥2	≥1
Favorites
1	South Florida	5–3	+7.6	5.2	3	16	42	71	90	98	✓	✓
2	UTSA	5–3	+6.0	5.2	3	16	42	70	89	97	✓	✓
3	Memphis	5–3	+4.4	4.7	1	9	29	57	82	95	99	✓
Challengers
4	Navy	5–3	+3.4	4.9	2	11	33	62	85	96	99	✓
5	East Carolina	5–3	+2.7	4.7	1	9	29	58	83	95	99	✓
6	Tulane	4–4	+2.4	4.4	1	5	21	47	74	92	98	✓
7	Army	4–4	+2.0	4.4	1	6	21	46	73	91	98	✓
The Field
8	North Texas	5–3	+1.3	4.6	1	7	24	52	79	94	99	✓
9	Temple	3–5	-2.6	3.5		1	7	23	50	78	94	99
10	Tulsa	3–5	-3.4	3.5		1	7	23	49	77	94	99
11	UAB	3–5	-4.4	2.9			3	11	32	61	86	98
Rebuilding
12	Florida Atlantic	3–5	-4.7	2.9			3	11	31	59	85	97
13	Rice	3–5	-6.4	2.8			2	10	28	56	83	97
14	Charlotte	2–6	-8.3	2.4			1	6	20	46	75	95

How they play

Six advanced-stat dimensions per team, ranked against all 134 FBS programs, 2025 season. Every column reads higher-is-better. Click a column to sort.

ScoringConvertsBig playsDefensePacePass rate

Team	Scoring	Converts	Big plays	Defense	Pace	Pass rate	Identity
South Florida	+0.31	46.5%	+1.33	-0.08	69.9	44.5%	Balanced
UTSA	+0.20	43.5%	+1.34	-0.14	68.5	50.2%	Balanced
Memphis	+0.25	45.2%	+1.31	-0.16	67.9	46.7%	Balanced
Navy	+0.30	48.8%	+1.27	-0.20	63.4	22.1%	Efficient offense
East Carolina	+0.18	45.3%	+1.19	-0.05	76.8	44.0%	Lockdown defense
Tulane	+0.21	44.8%	+1.23	-0.14	67.1	45.3%	Balanced
Army	+0.18	41.7%	+1.18	-0.17	67.2	14.4%	No explosive plays
North Texas	+0.37	52.3%	+1.33	-0.15	70.7	48.2%	Efficient offense
Temple	+0.17	42.5%	+1.18	-0.25	62.2	46.7%	Defense is the problem
Tulsa	+0.12	40.5%	+1.26	-0.15	74.5	45.8%	Balanced
UAB	+0.19	43.4%	+1.29	-0.33	69.4	52.6%	Defense is the problem
Florida Atlantic	+0.17	40.5%	+1.42	-0.22	77.9	62.1%	Big-play offense
Rice	+0.04	35.5%	+1.28	-0.25	67.0	25.7%	Can't sustain drives
Charlotte	-0.02	34.7%	+1.22	-0.23	61.8	51.1%	Can't sustain drives

Identity is the single dimension where a team is most above or below the FBS average (pace, defense, big plays, or converting drives) — "Balanced" means nothing stands out either way. CFBD 2025 advanced stats, excludes garbage time.

Top players

American Athletic's highest CFB Index Scores, 2025 season.

#	Player	Team	National
1	Caleb HawkinsRB	North Texas	#1 of 326
2	Wyatt YoungWR	North Texas	#5 of 485
3	Mac HarrisLB	South Florida	#11 of 583
4	Elijah GreenCB	Tulsa	#10 of 364
5	Jarvis Lee Jr.CB	South Florida	#15 of 364
6	Easton MesserWR	Florida Atlantic	#10 of 485
7	Jaheim JohnsonCB	Tulane	#19 of 364
8	Griffen WillisIDL	Navy	#18 of 330
9	Byrum BrownQB	South Florida	#6 of 146
10	Jhalyn ShulerLB	South Florida	#28 of 583

Where American Athletic stands nationally

Conference strength by RR50 (round-robin adjusted power).

1 SEC SEC

+11.4

2 B10 Big Ten

+10.1

3 IND FBS Independents

+9.4

4 B12 Big 12

+8.3

5 ACC ACC

+8.2

6 P12 Pac-12

+5.3

7 AAC American Athletic

+5.3

8 MW Mountain West

+4.0

9 SB Sun Belt

+3.7

10 CUSA Conference USA

+3.6

American Athletic title odds

Best available American odds · sportsbook consensus.

#	Team	Odds
1	Navy	+350
2	UTSA	+450
3	East Carolina	+580
4	Memphis	+600
5	Tulane	+600
6	South Florida	+680
7	Army	+575
8	Florida Atlantic	+1200
9	North Texas	+1800
10	Temple	+1800