FBS CONFERENCE · 2025 SEASON
American Athletic
THE LONG WAIT · 2025
After the Raid
After losing UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston to the Big 12 in 2023 — the three programs it spent a decade building into Power-adjacent contenders — the AAC rebuilt around service academies and Gulf Coast programs that stayed. Army joined in 2024, joining Navy and Air Force already in the league. Tulane won the Cotton Bowl in January 2023 and reached the Rose Bowl the following year. The conference has no pretension about being Power Five. It has a very specific identity instead.
With Army, Navy, and Air Force all in the same conference, the AAC now plays the only annual Army-Navy-Air Force round-robin in FBS history. Can that military-academy identity become the conference's brand — and does Tulane or Memphis claim the role of civilian anchor?
Conference Standings · American Athletic · 2025
Standings
| # | Team | Conf |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navy | 8–1 |
| 2 | Tulane | 8–1 |
| 3 | North Texas | 7–2 |
| 4 | South Florida | 6–2 |
| 5 | East Carolina | 6–2 |
| 6 | Memphis | 4–4 |
| 7 | UTSA | 4–4 |
| 8 | Army | 4–5 |
| 9 | Temple | 3–5 |
| 10 | Florida Atlantic | 3–5 |
| 11 | Rice | 2–6 |
| 12 | UAB | 2–6 |
| 13 | Tulsa | 1–7 |
| 14 | Charlotte | 0–8 |
Conference record determines standing. Power = neutral-field pts vs. all-level average. Last 5 = most recent game results.
Projected Standings · American Athletic · 2026
Win Projection
Preseason model — odds of winning at least N conference games, from current power ratings. Tiers rank projected strength; AVG = expected conference wins.
| # | Team | W–L | PWR | AVG | ≥8 | ≥7 | ≥6 | ≥5 | ≥4 | ≥3 | ≥2 | ≥1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites | ||||||||||||
| 1 | North Texas | 5–3 | +5.6 | 5.3 | 3 | 17 | 44 | 73 | 91 | 98 | ✓ | ✓ |
| 2 | South Florida | 5–3 | +5.2 | 4.9 | 2 | 11 | 33 | 62 | 85 | 96 | 99 | ✓ |
| 3 | UTSA | 5–3 | +3.6 | 4.7 | 1 | 9 | 28 | 55 | 80 | 94 | 99 | ✓ |
| Challengers | ||||||||||||
| 4 | East Carolina | 5–3 | +3.4 | 5.0 | 2 | 12 | 35 | 64 | 86 | 97 | 99 | ✓ |
| 5 | Navy | 5–3 | +2.9 | 4.7 | 1 | 10 | 30 | 58 | 82 | 95 | 99 | ✓ |
| 6 | Army | 5–3 | +2.4 | 4.5 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 51 | 77 | 93 | 99 | ✓ |
| 7 | Tulane | 4–4 | +2.4 | 4.4 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 48 | 75 | 92 | 98 | ✓ |
| The Field | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Memphis | 4–4 | +0.4 | 4.0 | 3 | 14 | 37 | 65 | 87 | 97 | ✓ | |
| 9 | Tulsa | 4–4 | -2.1 | 3.6 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 53 | 79 | 94 | 99 | |
| 10 | Temple | 4–4 | -2.9 | 3.6 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 52 | 79 | 94 | 99 | |
| 11 | Florida Atlantic | 3–5 | -2.7 | 3.2 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 40 | 69 | 90 | 99 | |
| Rebuilding | ||||||||||||
| 12 | UAB | 3–5 | -4.3 | 3.0 | 3 | 13 | 34 | 63 | 87 | 98 | ||
| 13 | Rice | 2–6 | -6.6 | 2.6 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 52 | 80 | 96 | ||
| 14 | Charlotte | 2–6 | -7.4 | 2.6 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 50 | 79 | 96 | ||
Conference Power · FBS
Where We Stand
| # | Conference | Avg Power |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEC | |
| 2 | Big Ten | |
| 3 | ACC | |
| 4 | Big 12 | |
| 5 | American AthleticYou are here | |
| 6 | Mountain West | |
| 7 | Sun Belt | |
| 8 | Mid-American | |
| 9 | Conference USA |
Round-robin power = strength of schedule-adjusted conference average, points vs. all-level average team. Record = American Athletic's record vs. that conference across all games this season.
Championship market · 2025
Aac Title odds
| # | Team | Best odds | Books |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navy | +310 | 6bk |
| 2 | UTSA | +450 | 6bk |
| 3 | Army | +575 | 6bk |
| 4 | Tulane | +550 | 6bk |
| 5 | Memphis | +600 | 6bk |
| 6 | South Florida | +700 | 6bk |
| 7 | East Carolina | +750 | 6bk |
| 8 | North Texas | +1800 | 6bk |
| 9 | Florida Atlantic | +1600 | 6bk |
| 10 | Temple | +1800 | 6bk |
| 11 | Tulsa | +1800 | 6bk |
| 12 | Rice | +4000 | 6bk |
| 13 | UAB | +8000 | 6bk |
| 14 | Charlotte | +10000 | 6bk |
Sportsbook consensus — best odds across multiple books · 2026-06-22 · American odds (e.g. +450 means bet $100 to win $450)
American Athletic is outperforming its raw power profile. The league body of work is stronger than the market would expect.
League Drivers
American Athletic Team Board
The league stack, sorted by predictive strength. Power is shown as neutral-field points versus the all-level average team, while resume is shown on a 0-100 season score.
| Rank | Team | Record | Power | Resume | ATS | Wins vs Market | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #12 | North Texas | 12-2 | +19.1 | 99 | 10-4 | +1.35 | 3-1 over the last 4 (W13 W14 L15 W18) |
| #16 | South Florida | 9-4 | +18.7 | 95 | 8-4 | +0.14 | 2-2 over the last 4 (L12 W13 W14 L16) |
| #26 | UTSA | 7-6 | +17.1 | 86 | 7-6 | -0.79 | 3-1 over the last 4 (W12 W13 L14 W18) |
| #28 | East Carolina | 9-4 | +16.9 | 93 | 8-4 | +1.04 | 3-1 over the last 4 (W12 L13 W14 W18) |
| #35 | Navy | 11-2 | +16.3 | 98 | 5-8 | +2.49 | 4-0 over the last 4 (W12 W14 W16 W18) |
| #41 | Army | 7-6 | +15.9 | 83 | 7-6 | -0.39 | 2-2 over the last 4 (L13 W14 L16 W18) |
| #43 | Tulane | 11-3 | +15.8 | 97 | 6-7 | +2.37 | 3-1 over the last 4 (W13 W14 W15 L17) |
| #74 | Memphis | 8-5 | +13.8 | 88 | 8-5 | -1.12 | 0-4 over the last 4 (L11 L12 L14 L16) |
| #124 | Tulsa | 4-8 | +11.4 | 48 | 6-6 | -0.39 | 2-2 over the last 4 (L11 W12 W13 L14) |
| #144 | Florida Atlantic | 4-8 | +10.8 | 54 | 7-5 | -0.64 | 1-3 over the last 4 (W11 L12 L13 L14) |
| #149 | Temple | 5-7 | +10.6 | 66 | 7-5 | +0.06 | 0-4 over the last 4 (L10 L11 L13 L14) |
| #188 | UAB | 4-8 | +9.2 | 39 | 4-8 | +0.09 | 1-3 over the last 4 (L11 L12 L13 W14) |
| #230 | Rice | 5-8 | +6.8 | 48 | 5-8 | +0.46 | 1-3 over the last 4 (W11 L13 L14 L18) |
| #237 | Charlotte | 1-11 | +6.1 | 16 | 5-6 | -1.24 | 0-4 over the last 4 (L11 L12 L13 L14) |
Biggest Risers
Rank movement since the most recent refresh.
Biggest Faders
Teams whose stock dropped most since the last refresh.
ATS Leaders
Who beat the number most often this season.
| Team | Cover Rate | Record |
|---|---|---|
| North Texas | 71.4% | 10-4 ATS |
| South Florida | 66.7% | 8-4 ATS |
| East Carolina | 66.7% | 8-4 ATS |
| Memphis | 61.5% | 8-5 ATS |
| Florida Atlantic | 58.3% | 7-5 ATS |
Wins vs Market
Win total minus the market's implied expectation, by team.
| Team | Wins vs Market | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Navy | +2.49 | 13 lined games |
| Tulane | +2.37 | 14 lined games |
| North Texas | +1.35 | 14 lined games |
| East Carolina | +1.04 | 13 lined games |
| Rice | +0.46 | 13 lined games |
Depth & Parity
How wide the league's power spread runs from top to bottom.