Home Conferences FBS 2026 season

VERDICT BEGINS · 2026

American Athletic

After the Raid

The 2026 American Athletic season is underway — UTSA holds the early power lead, but the picture is still open.

American Athletic is outperforming its raw power profile. The league body of work is stronger than the market would expect.

#7overall

#7in FBS

+17.6RR50

+21.3upper strength

14teams

1top-25 teams

American Athletic, at a glance.

Top 10 by power rating — 2026 season, through the latest games.

Team Power Record RR50

UTSA

2-1 +26.5

Army

1-1 +22.0

South Florida

3-0 +19.8

UAB

1-2 +19.3

Tulane

1-2 +18.0

Navy

1-1 +17.6

East Carolina

1-2 +17.1

Memphis

3-1 +16.6

Temple

1-2 +16.5

Tulsa

3-0 +15.5

Power snapshot Projected 2026 standing

After the Raid

Navy went 11-2 in 2025 with a recruiting class ranked #131 nationally — a +97 coaching premium that is the largest of any program in the AAC and one of the largest in FBS. The service academy option offense produced eleven wins against a schedule that included Power Four programs. At the same time, SMU holds the conference's highest SP+ rating (#14) with a #31 recruiting class. The AAC's best story in 2026 involves players who can't transfer to the portal and a program that wins because of scheme, not stars.

1 top-25 team.

The depth argument for this conference rests on how many credible opponents are clustered behind the leader. A wide talent spread separates the haves from the have-nots.

Where things stand right now.

The 2026 American Athletic season is underway — UTSA holds the early power lead, but the picture is still open.

Tools Matchup Simulator Compare Teams Playoff Forecast Style map Head to head Power map

The Conference Leader

SMU Holds the AAC's Best SP+ Rating at #14

SMU enters 2026 with the highest SP+ rating in the conference (#14 nationally) and a 9-4 record in 2025. Their recruiting class ranked #31 nationally — the conference's best — gives them the talent floor the AAC needs to earn committee respect. Whether SMU converts that into a New Year's Six bid, or whether the conference's bottom tier drags down the strength-of-schedule argument, is the defining question for the program and the league.

Why it matters →

The Premium Story

Navy Went 11-2 With the 131st Recruiting Class

Navy's coaching premium is +97 — the gap between their #131 recruiting rank and their #34 SP+ rating. Eleven wins in 2025 without a single player who could enter the transfer portal and get picked up by a P4 program at will. The option offense, the culture, the walk-on development: Navy's formula for winning doesn't scale to the national title conversation, but it produces results that the recruiting rankings never predict.

Why it matters →

The Surprise

South Florida and East Carolina Both Went 9-4

South Florida (+49 coaching premium, sp#16) and East Carolina (+49, sp#28) both went 9-4 in 2025 — two programs that recruit in the 65th-to-77th national range and play like conference title contenders. In an AAC without Memphis at 10-2 (they went 8-5) or Cincinnati dominating (they went 7-6 with a #61 class), the mid-tier surprise performers are carrying the conference's identity. USF in Tampa and ECU in Greenville are the stories that don't get told enough.

Active arcs our read

Active1wk ago

UTSA Recaptures I-35 Rivalry with Late-Game Victory Over Texas State

Can UTSA maintain its dominance in the I-35 Rivalry moving forward?

UTSA

Active2wk ago

Duke stifles Tulane in season opener

Can Duke sustain this momentum throughout the season?

Tulane

Developing2wk ago

Penn State’s Matt Campbell optimistic a key vet will play vs. Temple, more healt

Will the mutual respect between Keeler and Campbell translate into competitive parity during their matchup?

Temple

Developing2wk ago

Tulane Names Kadin Semonza Starting QB for South Alabama Game

Will Kadin Semonza lead Tulane to a win against South Alabama after the quarterback change?

Tulane

Developing2wk ago

Eric Morris Plans to Take 76-77 Players to Tulsa, Use Week 1 to Evaluate Oklahom

Can Oklahoma State recover from its embarrassing loss to Tulsa in Eric Morris’ first game?

Tulsa

All arcs →

Fan pulse Last 30 days · 3,211 mentions

19% positive 51% neutral 30% negative

UTSA

762

↓ negative

Tulane

448

↓ negative

North Texas

371

→ neutral

Army

341

↓ negative

Tulsa

238

↓ negative

UAB

236

↓ negative

Fan confidence — FBS percentile

Where each American Athletic program stands nationally in fan sentiment (100th = most positive in FBS, 0 = least). Conference median: 64th percentile.

Bullish–

Bullish+26

Bullish+4

Bullish-5

Leaning+11

Leaning+6

Leaning-7

Leaning+21

Leaning-7

Mixed+4

Mixed-12

Mixed-15

Souring-18

Souring-10

⚡

Most volatile: Navy

Fan confidence has swung 67 percentile points in the last 8 weeks — currently at the 52nd percentile nationally.

Rivalry face-offs

Army-Navy Game

Army vs Navy

Fan face-off →

The coaching premium

Recruiting class rank vs. SP+ performance — where coaches add or subtract value

Above line = coaching premium

Below line = underperforming

Gap = recruiting rank minus SP+ rank

Positive gap means the coaching staff won more than the recruiting class predicted. Data: American Athletic teams, 14 programs.

Coaching premium ↑

Army

+98

UTSA

+68

UAB

+68

Navy

+57

South

+35

Underperforming ↓

Charlotte

-43

Rice

-30

Temple

-27

Memphis

-21

Tulane

-10

Standings

2026 season, in progress — sorted by power rating. Stature tag = interim Zeitgeist calibration (medium confidence).

#	Team	Record	RR50	Resume
1	UTSA National Program II#47	2-1	+26.5	+96.6
2	Army Regional Program I#79	1-1	+22.0	+40.5
3	South Florida National Program III#70	3-0	+19.8	+99.0
4	UAB Regional Program III#100	1-2	+19.3	+30.1
5	Tulane National Program II#60	1-2	+18.0	+69.7
6	Navy National Program III#72	1-1	+17.6	+44.8
7	East Carolina Regional Program I#86	1-2	+17.1	+63.4
8	Memphis National Program II#50	3-1	+16.6	+88.2
9	Temple Regional Program IV#114	1-2	+16.5	+73.2
10	Tulsa Regional Program III#104	3-0	+15.5	+89.7
11	North Texas Regional Program III#102	1-2	+15.0	+86.2
12	Florida Atlantic Regional Program III#105	2-1	+14.5	+84.9
13	Rice Regional Program V#131	1-2	+12.8	+91.6
14	Charlotte Regional Program V#130	0-3	+11.4	+55.9

Projected Standings · American Athletic · 2026

Win Projection

Odds of winning at least N conference games from current power ratings — full slate played out, not locked to results. AVG = expected wins; W–L = most-likely record.

#	Team	W–L	PWR	AVG	≥8	≥7	≥6	≥5	≥4	≥3	≥2	≥1
Favorites
1	UTSA	6–2	+9.2	5.7	7	29	60	84	96	99	✓	✓
2	Army	5–3	+4.7	5.0	2	14	38	66	87	97	✓	✓
3	South Florida	4–4	+2.4	4.2		4	17	41	69	89	98	✓
Challengers
4	UAB	4–4	+2.0	4.3	1	5	20	45	72	91	98	✓
5	Navy	4–4	+0.2	4.1		4	16	40	68	88	98	✓
6	Tulane	4–4	+0.7	4.1		4	16	39	67	88	97	✓
7	East Carolina	4–4	-0.2	4.1		4	16	39	67	88	97	✓
The Field
8	Temple	4–4	-0.9	3.9		3	12	33	61	84	96	✓
9	Memphis	4–4	-0.7	3.8		2	11	31	58	82	95	99
10	Tulsa	4–4	-1.9	3.7		2	9	28	55	81	95	99
11	North Texas	4–4	-2.3	3.7		2	9	27	55	80	95	99
Rebuilding
12	Florida Atlantic	3–5	-2.8	3.3		1	6	19	44	72	91	99
13	Rice	3–5	-4.5	3.0		1	4	14	36	64	87	98
14	Charlotte	3–5	-5.9	3.0		1	3	13	34	63	86	98

How they play

Six advanced-stat dimensions per team, ranked against all 134 FBS programs, 2026 season. Every column reads higher-is-better. Click a column to sort.

ScoringConvertsBig playsDefensePacePass rate

Team	Scoring	Converts	Big plays	Defense	Pace	Pass rate	Identity
UTSA	+0.19	45.9%	+0.92	-0.04	59.7	53.1%	No explosive plays
Army	+0.41	58.4%	+0.97	-0.12	66.0	18.2%	Efficient offense
South Florida	+0.32	52.8%	+1.12	-0.13	59.0	46.9%	Efficient offense
UAB	-0.00	42.9%	+1.10	-0.14	68.3	36.1%	No explosive plays
Tulane	+0.14	33.8%	+1.49	-0.19	55.3	47.0%	Grind-it-out
Navy	+0.29	50.9%	+1.32	-0.12	69.0	21.0%	Efficient offense
East Carolina	-0.06	33.2%	+1.25	-0.07	60.3	42.5%	Can't sustain drives
Memphis	+0.28	46.2%	+1.51	-0.20	62.5	40.8%	Big-play offense
Temple	+0.20	42.4%	+1.25	-0.19	62.7	32.5%	Balanced
Tulsa	+0.17	41.8%	+1.27	+0.06	66.7	41.5%	Balanced
North Texas	+0.24	44.0%	+1.36	-0.31	73.7	52.0%	Defense is the problem
Florida Atlantic	+0.12	41.3%	+1.12	-0.23	78.0	52.1%	High-tempo
Rice	+0.00	39.5%	+1.19	-0.14	62.7	21.3%	Balanced
Charlotte	+0.03	37.6%	+1.18	-0.26	65.0	53.3%	Defense is the problem

Identity is the single dimension where a team is most above or below the FBS average (pace, defense, big plays, or converting drives) — "Balanced" means nothing stands out either way. CFBD 2026 advanced stats, excludes garbage time.

Top players

American Athletic's highest CFB Index Scores, 2025 season.

#	Player	Team	National
1	Caleb HawkinsRB	North Texas	#1 of 326
2	Wyatt YoungWR	North Texas	#5 of 485
3	Mac HarrisLB	South Florida	#11 of 583
4	Elijah GreenCB	Tulsa	#10 of 364
5	Jarvis Lee Jr.CB	South Florida	#14 of 364
6	Easton MesserWR	Florida Atlantic	#10 of 485
7	Jaheim JohnsonCB	Tulane	#19 of 364
8	Byrum BrownQB	South Florida	#6 of 146
9	Griffen WillisIDL	Navy	#18 of 330
10	Jhalyn ShulerLB	South Florida	#28 of 583

Where American Athletic stands nationally

Conference strength by RR50 (round-robin adjusted power).

1 SEC SEC

+23.0

2 B10 Big Ten

+21.8

3 IND FBS Independents

+20.5

4 P12 Pac-12

+20.0

5 B12 Big 12

+20.0

6 ACC ACC

+19.4

7 AAC American Athletic

+17.6

8 SB Sun Belt

+17.2

9 CUSA Conference USA

+16.7

10 MAC Mid-American

+16.2

American Athletic title odds

Best available American odds · sportsbook consensus.

#	Team	Odds
1	Navy	+325
2	UTSA	+425
3	Memphis	+400
4	East Carolina	+710
5	South Florida	+500
6	Army	+830
7	Tulane	+1000
8	Tulsa	+725
9	Florida Atlantic	+1300
10	North Texas	+1100