UAB4-8

Cautious optimism is building around UAB.

belief cooled ↓ 0.6vs prior week
Fanbase belief
Leaning up
53/100 · 43 mentions
~ our read
Grounding
backed by facts
9% cite a stat · 6% typical ✓ counted
~ our read
Volatility
Chaotic
σ 29 pts
~ our read
The model
#122
CFB Zeitgeist · -6.2
✓ measured
Explore all 5 corners of the fanbase ↓
4
portal class

UAB signs top-93 transfer class, shifting expectations.

Dilfer's third straight top-20 portal class arrives with 73% production returning and Diezel Wilkinson at safety, proving this isn't just roster maintenance.

Hope-Doping·Offseason

UAB is the program its own university shut down — then brought back from the dead and watched win a conference title, a comeback story no other program in the sport can claim.

Standard GapA 2018 conference championship two years after literal extinction vs thr…

UAB fans never forget that their own university system — the one that answers to Tuscaloosa — tried to bury the program. Every season the Blazers exist at all, they say, is a win over the people who w…

offseason · quiet
Read the full program story ↓

Roster Reload - UAB

2026 snapshot - 2026-08-06
Returning Production73%High continuity
Talent Composite#103 nationally247 composite 540.9
Portal Additions38Primary repair: CB
Portal Losses33Primary pressure: IOL
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#133Depth class
Sin 7 - Elijah Pratt3.60out 5 - AJ Brown3.49Need Filled
current room: 200 lbs avg (2025 roster)
DLin 5 - Sterling Sanders3.50out 4 - JaSire Peterson4.28Even
current room: 300 lbs avg (2025 roster)
WRin 4 - Ty Mims3.40out 5 - Iverson Hooks3.80Even
current room: 187 lbs avg (2025 roster)
LBin 5 - Shaun Myers3.60out 3 - Tylan McNichols3.50Need Filled
current room: 228 lbs avg (2025 roster)
EDGEin 4 - Marlin Dean3.60out 4 - Eddy Toussom3.49Upgrade
current room: 252 lbs avg (2025 roster)
CBin 5 - Guylijah Theodule3.60out 2 - Perry Fisher3.50Need Filled
current room: 182 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Belief EKG
2019 seasonW 45-35 vs Central Arkansas (Wk 1)L 14-31 vs Miami (Wk 2)W 42-10 vs South Alabama (Wk 4)W 21-13 vs UTSA (Wk 5)W 37-14 vs Western Kentucky (Wk 7)L 20-24 vs Louisiana (Wk 8)L 34-37 vs Louisiana Tech (Wk 9)W 21-16 vs Rice (Wk 15)W 22-13 vs Marshall (Wk 16)HIGHLOW
2020 seasonW 24-19 vs Alabama State (Wk 1)W 31-20 vs Akron (Wk 2)W 35-3 vs South Alabama (Wk 4)L 13-20 vs Western Kentucky (Wk 5)W 35-20 vs Rice (Wk 6)W 33-14 vs UTSA (Wk 7)W 38-14 vs Old Dominion (Wk 8)L 7-30 vs Tennessee (Wk 10)L 2-37 vs Southern Miss (Wk 11)W 37-10 vs UTEP (Wk 12)W 20-14 vs Louisiana Tech (Wk 13)W 26-21 vs North Texas (Wk 14)L 6-49 vs Florida Atlantic (Wk 15)L 17-31 vs App State (Wk 17)HIGHLOW
2020 season · 6W-3L2019 season · 9W-5L
WinLoss · hover for scorePrior seasons

Approaching

29 days

until kickoff · at Illinois · Fri Sep 4 · 01:00 UTC

The experience

UAB is the AAC program whose 2014 football program shutdown + 2017 resurrection + Bill Clark 2018 Conference USA championship + Protective Stadium 2021 define what dropped-and-revived-football-program looks like.

Offense: SolidRun/Pass: Pass-first, spreadDefense: Poor
2026 Preview Thesis 2026 Evidence-validated

UAB's 2026 Season Projected to Reach 9-4 with Bowl Game Appearance

UAB is projected to finish with a 9-4 record and qualify for a bowl game, leveraging its high continuity and net portal imports. The team's transfer activity and returning production provide a strong foundation for improvement.

  • Roster reloadUAB has a net portal importer profile with 38 transfers in and 33 out, contributing to a reload score of "High continuity".
  • ScheduleUAB's base scenario projects a 7-6 record with a bowl game appearance, while the ceiling scenario forecasts a 9-4 finish.
Data as of 2026-08-03 · Validated against program evidence

Blaze the Dragon is patient.

UAB · the story right now 14 storylines developing

What UAB's coaching hire is really about

the open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?

coachingthis cycle~readnew

Mortensen inherits a 4-8 roster and 73% returning production — UAB’s third coach in five years faces the challenge of stabilizing a program defined by cycles of collapse and revival.

what happenedAlex Mortensen took over as UAB's head coach, replacing Trent Dilfer. ✓ fact
the contextthe program's third head coach in five seasons
narrative tension · our read
portal2025-05-31~readnew

Perry Fisher and Delvon Gulley arrive as the headline cornerback additions in UAB's second straight top-20 portal class — Dilfer's 4-8 record gets a secondary overhaul.

what happenedUAB signed a top-37 transfer-portal class — 29 additions headlined by Ryder Burton (QB) from West Virginia and Perry Fisher (CB) from Maryland. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
portal2026-01-25~readnew

Dilfer's third straight top-20 portal class arrives with 73% production returning and Diezel Wilkinson at safety, proving this isn't just roster maintenance.

what happenedUAB signed a top-93 transfer-portal class — 38 additions headlined by Guylijah Theodule (CB) from Southern Miss and Draden Fullbright (CB) from Oklahoma State. ✓ fact
the contextprogram's highest-ranked portal class on record
narrative tension · our read
money downthis cycle✓ factnew

BJ Hawkins Jr. is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.

narrative tension · our read
underdogthis cycle✓ factnew

Corri Milliner produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.

narrative tension · our read
garbage timethis cycle✓ factnew

Isaiah Jacobs sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach, and his efficiency in competitive snaps sits below the position baseline -- the numbers lean on the opponent giving up.

narrative tension · our read
money downthis cycle✓ factnew

Iverson Hooks is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.

narrative tension · our read
garbage timethis cycle~attributednew

BJ Hawkins Jr.: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.

narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew

Iverson Hooks: a depth dna signal screened this season.

narrative tension · our read
garbage timethis cycle~attributednew

Iverson Hooks: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.

narrative tension · our read
garbage timethis cycle~attributednew

Jevon Jackson does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score.

narrative tension · our read
coordinatorsthis cycle✓ factnew

UAB: coordinator change reshaping a unit.

narrative tension · our read
identitythis cycle~readnew

Trent Dilfer enters his third season at UAB with a 4-8 losing record to overcome, as the program's identity hinges on reviving the legacy of its 2017 resurrection and 2018 Conference USA title.

what happenedUAB: the fanbase's identity shifting. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew

Trent Dilfer enters his third season at UAB with a 4-8 losing record to address, as the program's identity hinges on reviving its post-2017 resurgence amid a weak FBS tier.

what happenedUAB: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read

How past storylines here turned out

ReplacedUAB's defensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →

Transfer portal snapshot

-2.0 net portal points
(raw ledger: +27.6 — unweighted, no position adjustment)
S
+13.4
need not filled
LB
+9.2
need not filled
IOL
-9.0
starter risk
CB
+8.2
need not filled
RB
+6.9
need not filled
TE
-4.0
EDGE
+2.7
DL
+2.0
WR
-1.6
OT
-0.3

Top 3 commits

2026 class
★★★☆☆
Jayson Moll
RB · Bixby, OK
#1566 national
Profiles like a typical incoming running back — 14 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Balanced Back archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Malachi Character
LB · Thomaston, GA
#1846 national
Profiles like a typical incoming linebacker — 15 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Balanced Linebacker archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Barrett Maddox
OT · Clinton, TN
#104 national

Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now

49th percentile among FBS programs

Fan vs. market
49th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
3.5
Vegas O/U wins
(1st among FBS)
Fans 48pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 3 books

Market outlook

Season expectations

Win total3 booksO/U 3.5
CFP championship#131 in field+100000
AAC title#13 in market+7000

Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06

UAB · Next-Season Outcome Band

Floor / Base / Ceiling

floor4-8No postseason.
base7-6Bowl game.
ceiling9-4Bowl game.

Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.

How the room reactedreal evidence · tap rooms to explore
Following now · UAB · Coaching Confidence

The Alex Mortensen story at UAB won't sit still.

Alex Mortensen took over as UAB's head coach, replacing Trent Dilfer. It is the program's third head coach in five seasons. It's not the hire that's the story anymore — it's everything it set in motion. The room has bought in, but early believers have been wrong before.

Developing1 new this week
3 days agoUAB opens first fall camp under Alex Mortensen with energy and confidence — WVTM
last weekUAB Blazers Head Coach Alex Mortensen - American Kickoff 2026 — YouTube
last week‘Rookie’ Alex Mortensen enters 2026 UAB football season with ‘optimism and hope’ — AL.com
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Alex Mortensen Head coach
“UAB opens first fall camp under Alex Mortensen with energy and confidence” — WVTM · 2026-08-03
Trent Dilfer Out
“UAB fires Trent Dilfer, names Alex Mortensen interim coach” — ESPN · 2025-10-12
Nick Saban
“Alex Mortensen blending Nick Saban's 'Process' with his own style at UAB” — CBS Sports · 2026-07-17
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Mortensen inherits a 4-8 roster and 73% returning production — UAB’s third coach in five years faces the challenge of stabilizing a program defined by cycles of collapse and revival.
Source of record: Alex Mortensen took over as UAB's head coach, replacing Trent Dilfer — the program's third head coach in five seasons.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
Believers bullishSkeptics no dissentThe Boards thinThe Dominoes active
📣Believers1 bullish/hire items -- the case it's working.

The 'this hire changes everything' takes -- new-era believers making the case early.

“‘Our emphasis is on high school’: Inside Alex Mortensen’s recruiting vision for UAB football”
AL.com · 2026-05-31 · read ↗
“UAB opens first fall camp under Alex Mortensen with energy and confidence”
WVTM · 2026-08-03 · read ↗
“UAB Blazers Head Coach Alex Mortensen - American Kickoff 2026”
YouTube · 2026-07-28 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.

The 'show me the body of work' counter -- resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.

Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.

💬The boards2 board mentions — too thin to call a stance.

Only 2 of 147 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.

"UAB's program has been through a fascinating journey. We don't talk enough about how this program made such a great comeback from literally being disbanded. The most recent era was"
r/UAB ~ fan take
"Basically when Bill Clark was coach and we got the team back in 2017, we had three conference championship appearances in a row, two of which were victories (first in UAB history)."
r/CFB ~ fan take

The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.

🔗The dominoes14 downstream moves — the hire's knock-on effects.

The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.

“UAB WR Iverson Hooks plans to enter the NCAA Transfer Portal”
On3 · 2026-07-15 · read ↗
“UAB 2022 Football Commits”
247Sports · 2026-06-09 · read ↗
Following now · UAB · Transfer portal Confidence

UAB went deep in the portal this cycle. Portal volume is the start of the story, not the verdict.

UAB signed a top-37 transfer-portal class — 29 additions headlined by Ryder Burton (QB) from West Virginia and Perry Fisher (CB) from Maryland. Portal pickups are proven college players — the split isn't about development, it's about whether they fit the scheme and win their position battles. Coverage is split on whether volume or positional fit is the bigger story.

bullish — but with real dissent where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics1 doubt take
Believers4 bull takes
💬 fans: 9% volume
Developing1 new this week
2 days agoRyder Burton looks to build on iconic upset as UAB’s QB1 — Yahoo Sports
last weekQuarterback Ryder Burton could be key to UAB’s chances in 2026 — AL.com
2 weeks ago5 Questions with Ryder Burton — UAB Athletics
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Ryder Burton QB · West Virginia
“Ryder Burton looks to build on iconic upset as UAB’s QB1” — Yahoo Sports · 2026-08-04
Perry Fisher CB · Maryland
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Perry Fisher and Delvon Gulley arrive as the headline cornerback additions in UAB's second straight top-20 portal class — Dilfer's 4-8 record gets a secondary overhaul.
Source of record: UAB signed a top-37 transfer-portal class — 29 additions headlined by Ryder Burton (QB) from West Virginia and Perry Fisher (CB) from Maryland.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
Believers bullishSkeptics dissentThe Boards thin
📣Believers4 bullish/portal items -- the case it's working.

The 'portal class fills the gaps' believers -- upgrades at real positions of need.

“Back in his old number, UAB QB Ryder Burton might have found a new No. 1 target”
al.com · 2026-03-18 · read ↗
“A full breakdown of UAB’s 41-man transfer class”
AL.com · 2026-01-28 · read ↗
“UAB’s biggest transfer portal wins this offseason”
AL.com · 2026-01-26 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“5 Questions with Ryder Burton” — the real counter.

The 'portal is a gamble' counter -- departure losses and the 'plug-and-play doesn't work' read.

“5 Questions with Ryder Burton”
UAB Athletics · 2026-07-17 · read ↗
💬The boards13 board mentions — too thin to call a stance.

Only 13 of 147 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.

"UAB's program has been through a fascinating journey. We don't talk enough about how this program made such a great comeback from literally being disbanded. The most recent era was"
r/UAB ~ fan take
"There's optimism in some circles and fanbases who have the NIL and donor money to actually compete. My hometown UAB program has no shot of ever being nationally competitive on a co"
r/CFB ~ fan take

The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.

Recent Form · last 10 games

Cold

One of five. The film room is busy this week.

Streak W1Last 5 · 1-4Last 10 · 3-7
The forecast

Opens Sep 4

vs Illinois · away

Season line3.5 winsover -115
SolidPass-first, spreadPoor

✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style

Recruiting Footprint · 2026

12
AL · 3GA · 3FL · 2MS · 2OK · 1TN · 1

AL leads the 2026 class with 3 commits. National footprint reaching 6 states.

Where they recruit · 2023-2026

72 signees across 15 states, 2023-2026. AL leads the pull.

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMNWIMINYMAORNVWYSDIAILINOHPANJCTCAUTCONEMOKYWVVAMDDERIAZNMKSARTNNCSCDCOKLAMSALGAAKHITXFL
Source CFB Zeitgeist · player_recruiting_profiles

r/cfb this year

[Postgame Thread] UAB Defeats Memphis 31-24
817 upvotes · Oct 2025
[Postgame Thread] UAB Defeats Alabama State 52-42
145 upvotes · Aug 2025
[Postgame Thread] Army Defeats UAB 31-13
106 upvotes · Oct 2025

Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb

Class Autopsy
The 2023 class: 0 drafted so far, 62% never transferred. C
See the class →
National spotlight

5 games with TV coverage: 1 ESPN, 2 cable, 1 conference network, 1 streaming

Kickoff windows: 3 noon, 2 afternoon

Fumble luck

17% recovery rate on their own fumbles — below the ~51% league baseline.

1 of 6 own fumbles recovered themselves; 5 of 10 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.

Takeaway conversion

13% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — below the ~19% league average, and due for more.

4 interceptions of 30 disrupted passes (26 deflected, 4 intercepted), 2025 only.

Penalty battle

89 penalties committed, 72 drawn on opponents — ceding 118 yards of field position.

734 penalty yards committed vs. 616 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.

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