No game this week · Sat Oct 31, 12 am ET ESPNU · USFSouth Florida is 5-2 · First meeting between Mortensen and Brian Hartline as head coaches · UAB’s chance to win: 30% (the site’s model)
Why the hell? Why does the parking portal ask for my card info if it didn't even use it. I thought I paid for my parking pass but now I'm paying for a dumb af flex plan and a late fee for the stupid flex plan. They won't waive the fees, any excuse to take my money I guess.
Does anybody recognize this address near the UAB campus somewhere a package was delivered there incorrectly and I desperately need it.
All I'm hearing is USF is not what it usually is
Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more negative than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases
Offense: 123rd of 138 per play. Defense: 65th.
Through 7 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is UAB. The other two rows are where UAB stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.
5 games left
Sat Oct 31at USFSouth Florida (5-2)ESPNU30%
Sat Nov 7vs. CLTCharlotte (1-6)86%
Sat Nov 14at TEMTemple (2-5)59%
Sat Nov 21vs. UTSAUTSA (6-1)28%
Sat Nov 28at UNTNorth Texas (4-2)28%
Percent: UAB’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.
How the season got here
Where UAB stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).
Oct 12–18W 30-17 vs. ECUEast Carolina0 headlines
Oct 5–11L 13-38 at MEMMemphis0 headlines
Sep 28–Oct 4W 33-14 vs. SAMSamford1 headline · 82nd of 138
Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 24-20 vs. NAVYNavy0 headlines
Sep 14–20 · rebuiltL 14-21 at ULLouisiana0 headlines
Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.
Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Oct 23.
In his own words
I thought our defense played very well, definitely well enough to win the game. We held them to three points in the second half, which I think is pretty remarkable … I thought the guys played with really good heart, toughness, effort and speed, made adjustments during the game, and created a big turnover as well. We also had some good returns and certain aspects of special teams.
The good news is we scored in the red zone. The bad news is more of those need to be touchdowns, not field goals. We’ve got to execute the plays we’re running better and make sure we’ve got a good plan
I thought our defense played very well, definitely well enough to win the game. We held them to three points in the second half, which I think is pretty remarkable … I thought the guys played with really good heart, toughness, effort and speed, made adjustments during the game, and created a big turnover as well. We also had some good returns and certain aspects of special teams.
The good news is we scored in the red zone. The bad news is more of those need to be touchdowns, not field goals. We’ve got to execute the plays we’re running better and make sure we’ve got a good plan
Hired into 18–18, Regional Program III. Rough match, not calibrated yet — ranked on what the job inherited alone. Coaches hired into this same job aren’t used as comps.
Of the 5 closest comps, 2 left the program higher than he found it and 3 left it lower. Median stay: 5 seasons.
Every coach hired into a Regional Program III job since 1990 (87): typically -0.7 after year 1, +0.2 after year 2.
His year 1 here (2025) overlaps a mid-season coaching change — that season’s composite may reflect more than just his own games.
3%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool79th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs
0%50%+
Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 137 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.
His first rated season here.
His hot seat, week by week
The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.
← swipe for earlier seasons
He took over during the 2025 season (6 games); that year is unrated, since each season counts against whoever started it.
What drives his number
The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.
▼ Cooler
Year 1· tenure, which this model overrates(why?)
Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.
▲ Hotter
2-4 over his previous season here
▲ Hotter
4-3, outscored by 9
What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025
A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.
Were 4-3 after 7 games
6% pushed out over results · of 573 coaches
Were in year 1, after 7 games
1% pushed out over results · of 523 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
No figure on file for this coach. The salary database predates the last coaching carousel; a name mismatch is suppressed rather than misattributed.
How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.
Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.
Offense vs. talent
-6.9 pts
#140 of 208 · middle half
Defense vs. talent
-38.1 pts
#202 of 208 · bottom quarter
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Who they bring in
Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.
Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.
Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 233 lbs
across 49 of 67 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+2.9 lbs
#173 of 255 · middle half
Avg. class year
So
#248 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. portal rating
3.0★
rated arrivals only
Top states: FL (8), AL (7), TX (5), LA (4), OH (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
53.4
position-weighted
Talent lost
55.0
position-weighted
Net
-1.5
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Ryder Burton (QB) from West Virginia
Biggest loss: Jacob Zeno (QB) to Texas A&M
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Linebacker via the portal
88%
#2 of 225 stints
Buys Tackle via the portal
83%
#7 of 223 stints
AI Narratives — “UAB — stat check” and 3 more on the team page.
6-7
Big games
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
One-score games
2-1
66.7% · margin ≤8
Against the spread
3-3-1
all 7 had a line
Performance by opponent class
National Program
1-2 33.3%
Regional Program
2-1 66.7%
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
Style position and drift
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered season
How good is he so far?
Too new to grade — in-season movement only
UAB’s composite stature has risen since preseason: 15.2 entering the year to 16.2 through week 8 (Regional Program III) · #50 of 138 in movement since preseason · middle half.
Part four · How he builds a team
Three numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
No class below is fully his yet — every one was inherited or signed mid-transition, so none counts toward a verdict.
2025
#125
Inherited
2026
#133
Transition
Transition — he was hired mid-cycleInherited — signed before he arrived
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
70%His own players
of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 109 of 155 players. The other 46 are holdovers from before he was hired.
Arrived under him 109Inherited 46
Of his own players on this roster, 42% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).
Everyone he has brought in, 2025–2026Counting players who have since left: 43% of the 114 arrivals we can classify came through the portal.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Where he recruits
ALTop state
is his biggest recruiting state: 6 of 24 signees (25%) across his 2025–2026 tenure, drawn from 7 states in all. Next: GA (6).
Where his signees came from, 2025–2026 (24 high-school, JUCO and prep signees)
92% of his signees come from AL and its 4 border states (GA 6, FL 4, MS 4, TN 2).
Off this map: 1 signee to the west (OK) and 1 to the north (DE).
Roster distance from campus (Legion Field, AL)
median hometown distance
269 mi
within 100 mi
26%
within 500 mi
62%
beyond 1,000 mi
10%
148 of 155 roster players with a known hometown (96% coverage)
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.
