The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Rick Stockstill

Followed Andy McCollum. Rick Stockstill held Middle Tennessee at Regional Program III for 18 seasons.

113–111
2006–2023 · 1 stint
← all coaches

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).

Middle Tennessee, 18 seasons
−1.1
Regional Program III → Regional Program III.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%60%Middle Tennessee2006–2023▲ 14.0pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Middle Tennessee17.9pt#22 of 258 · more than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

5–10 against his rivals. Just 1–6 against Larry Blakeney.

Rivalry record
5–10
33.3% · 1 rival
One-score games
39–29
57.4% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–1
0.0%
Rivalry ledger
The toughest matchupNemesis
7 meetings, 2006–2012
’06 L’07 L’08 L’09 L’10 L’11 L’12 W
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0–1 0.0%
Blue Blood
0–3 0.0%
Power Program
1–13 7.1%
National Program
11–17 39.3%
Regional Program
85–71 54.5%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.06
#125 of 319 · a typical amount
Defense marginal impact
+0.13
#80 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2006–2023
Middle Tennesseecaretaker
Regional Program III → Regional Program III
Rick Stockstill held Middle Tennessee at Regional Program III for 18 seasons.

2nd-best Middle Tennessee tenure of 3 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+5.1 pts
#88 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+13.2 pts
#58 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Andy McCollum (1999–2005) · succeeded by Derek Mason (2024–2026).

Season200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Trend
Record & result
Record7–65–75–710–36–72–108–48–56–67–68–57–68–64–83–67–68–54–8
PostseasonL bowlL bowlW bowlL bowlW bowlW bowl
Recruiting rank#85#86#96#91#104#85#90#122#118#119
Style — pass rate
Pass rate39.349.957.152.649.247.349.150.353.253.3
Coordinators
OCBuster FaulknerBuster FaulknerTony FranklinTony FranklinTony FranklinTony FranklinTony FranklinBrent DearmonMitch StewartMitch Stewart
DCTyrone Nix / Steve EllisTyrone Nix / Steve EllisTyrone NixScott ShaferScott ShaferScott ShaferScott ShaferScott ShaferScott ShaferScott Shafer
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense49709653397037182733
Defense27741685603321827774
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%31.441.950.948.544.842.444.350.554.150.3
Red-zone pass%27.735.852.437.551.538.641.146.743.152.2
4th-down go%opp. territory30.335.025.818.939.321.928.045.242.643.9
Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals
25
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
36
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-11
#142 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 222 lbs
across 20 of 25 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
-0.5 lbs
#238 of 255 · less than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#216 of 255 · less than most
Top states: FL (6), GA (4), TN (3), NC (2), MI (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
49.7
position-weighted
Talent lost
52.6
position-weighted
Net
-2.9
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Bailey Hockman (QB) from NC State
Biggest loss: Asher O'Hara (QB) to Sacramento State
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Buster Faulkner → Tony Franklin · 2016the system held
59th pct75th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 36.7% → 49.7% (+13.1 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 78% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Tony Franklin → Brent Dearmon · 2021
37th pct18th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 44.3% → 50.5% (+6.1 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 58% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Brent Dearmon → Mitch Stewart · 2022
18th pct27th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 50.5% → 54.1% (+3.6 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 71% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: co-Tyrone Nix / co-Steve Ellis → Tyrone Nix · 2016
74th pct16th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Tyrone Nix → Scott Shafer · 2017
16th pct85th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
202 lbs
6′0″ avg · #656 of 767 · less than most
Running back
201 lbs
5′11″ avg · #600 of 791 · less than most
Wide receiver
192 lbs
6′0″ avg · #435 of 791 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
300 lbs
6′4″ avg · #683 of 779 · less than most
D-line
275 lbs
6′2″ avg · #571 of 753 · less than most
Linebacker
218 lbs
6′1″ avg · #742 of 772 · less than most
Cornerback
193 lbs
6′1″ avg · #252 of 771 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows K from high school
100%
#52 of 56 stints
Grows Tight end from high school
82%
#154 of 188 stints
Postseason detail2015: Lost to Western Michigan 31–45 Popeyes Bahamas Bowl2016: Lost to Hawai'i 35–52 Hawai'i Bowl2017: Beat Arkansas State 35–30 Raycom Media Camellia Bowl2018: Lost to App State 13–45 R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl2021: Beat Toledo 31–24 Bahamas Bowl2022: Beat San Diego State 25–23 EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl

6 NFL Draft picks: Erik Walden (2008), Chris McCoy (2010), Roderick Issac (2011), Jimmy Staten (2014), Kevin Byard (2016), Richie James (2018)

113–111