Middle Tennessee3-93Derek Mason enters his third season with a 3-9 losing record, raising questions about whether the coordinator-driven reshaping can elevate Middle Tennessee beyond its current Conference USA floor.
Middle Tennessee spent eighteen years as Rick Stockstill's steady program — the Murfreesboro stalwart that occasionally ambushed a power — and now, two coaches and two 3-9 seasons later, is trying to remember how to be that again.
Fans remember the Saturdays the Blue Raiders walked into a bigger program's stadium and won, and bristle that the national take treats Murfreesboro as background — a program that has, more than once…
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · vs Murray State · Sat Sep 5 · 23:00 UTC
Middle Tennessee is the Conference USA program whose Rick Stockstill 2006-2024 era + Floyd Stadium + 2018 Hawaii Bowl championship define what historic-Tennessee-G5-football looks like.
With 99% of returning players and a recruiting score of 164.9, Middle Tennessee enters the season with strong continuity but faces challenges from its depth class.
Lightning the Pegasus is patient.
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
Middle Tennessee enters 2026 — the program's top-quintile returning production contrasts sharply with its 3-9 record, and Derek Mason's second season will determine if historic-Tennessee-G5-football can be rekindled.
Derek Mason enters his third season with a 3-9 losing record, raising questions about whether the coordinator-driven reshaping can elevate Middle Tennessee beyond its current Conference USA floor.
Myles Butler is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
Derek Mason's second season opens with a 3-9 losing record, forcing the program to redefine what historic-Tennessee-G5-football looks like under new leadership.
Hunter Tipton is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Landon Collins is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Myles Butler is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Nahzae Cox is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Middle Tennessee enters 2025 at No. 127 in SP+ — Derek Mason's second season opens with top-quintile returning production, but the 3-9 record looms over Conference USA's bowl-era identity.
IOL Brennan Smith transfer commits from Mississippi State
IOL room churned 10 in, 4 out and still had a hole after Guevara walked — Smith's SEC practice reps at Mississippi State are the kind of depth upgrade that stops a 16-point SP+ drop from getting worse up front.
Top 3 commits
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Middle Tennessee · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Middle Tennessee enters 2026 rated No. 127 in 2025 SP+ (-16.0). It is top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back. SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 32 of 75 board posts (43%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Middle Tennessee: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Only 1 of 75 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Two of five. Schedule has caught up.
Opens Sep 5
vs Murray State · at home
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
FL leads the 2026 class with 9 commits. National footprint reaching 7 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
84 signees across 14 states, 2023-2026. TN leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
4 games with TV coverage: 3 ESPN, 1 cable
Kickoff windows: 1 afternoon, 3 primetime
Recovering 33% of the fumbles they've forced — running cold vs. the ~49% league rate.
4 of 12 forced fumbles recovered; 8 of 13 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.
Converting 20% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~19% league rate.
10 interceptions of 50 disrupted passes (40 deflected, 10 intercepted), 2025 only.
Losing the penalty battle: 87 penalties committed vs. 55 drawn on opponents, a 288-yard deficit.
812 penalty yards committed vs. 524 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
What little we hear
Only 3 cohort(s) cleared the signal floor this week, so we won’t stage a split we can’t back. Here’s the honest read:
How Middle Tennessee fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
~ our readMiddle Tennessee fans are cautiously optimistic, and they're backing it with about as much hard evidence as anyone.
✓ counted We read 69 posts from Middle Tennessee fans this week.
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Fanbase Health Index · Middle Tennessee · high confidence
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.09 EPA/play | 11 | 9 | 219 / 357 | 61.3 | 2157 | 6.0 | 16 #63 FBS | 7 | 123.0 | 36.2 | 5.4 | 5.1 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 97 of 183 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2021 class View Nick Vattiato's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Scrambler · +0.14 EPA/play | 16 | 5 | 78 / 135 | 57.8 | 1011 | 7.5 | 7 | 0 | 137.8 | 36.0 | 7.4 | 6.2 | |
Yards by week → ScramblerMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. 45 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Rush usage22.0% bottom 50th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts INT rate0.0% 98th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Roman Gagliano's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satellite Back · +0.04 EPA/play | 9 | 11 | 140 | 752 | 5.4 | 4 | 72 | 20.8 | 23.2 | 25.7 | 13.2 | 13.3% (57/428) | |
Yards by week → Satellite Back· Boom-or-bustDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 50 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Receiving share22.2% 95th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception10.3 78th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 39th percentile to the 83rd among FBS RBs | |||||||||||||
| +0.07 EPA/play | 29 | 7 | 26 | 199 | 7.7 | 2 | 64 | 6.6 | 4.9 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| +0.04 EPA/play | 28 | 8 | 34 | 111 | 3.3 | 1 | 15 | 4.2 | 5.3 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.52 EPA/play | 13 | 10 | 38 | 529 | 13.9 | 3 | 68 | 6.9 | 9.5 | 11.7% (50/428) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception12.7 bottom 45th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.5 58th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 10th to 64th percentile among FBS WRs | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.39 EPA/play | 5 | 11 | 52 | 518 | 10.0 | 2 | 52 | 13 | 10.7 | 16.1% (69/428) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · senior View Myles Butler's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.37 EPA/play | 1 | 10 | 40 | 473 | 11.8 | 5 | 43 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 15.4% (66/428) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · junior View Nahzae Cox's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.35 EPA/play | 82 | 12 | 39 | 411 | 10.5 | 2 | 37 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 11.2% (48/428) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception10.7 bottom 46th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume39 92th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Hunter Tipton's full player page | |||||||||||
| Jump-Ball Target · -0.05 EPA/play | 6 | 11 | 28 | 216 | 7.7 | 5 | 27 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 9.8% (42/428) | |
Yards by week → Jump-Ball TargetWins contested catches at the goal line. Size and catch radius are the weapons. 29 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TD rate17.9% 94th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)-0.1 bottom 2th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View AJ Jones's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.43 EPA/play | 8 | 8 | 15 | 201 | 13.4 | 1 | 41 | 1 | 3.7 | 5.1% (22/428) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception7.6 bottom 7th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume15 bottom 14th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Amorion Walker's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.34 EPA/play | 89 | 4 | 16 | 187 | 11.7 | 1 | 48 | 11.1 | 12.6 | 6.3% (27/428) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception11.4 bottom 31th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume16 bottom 16th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Landon Collins's full player page | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Versatile End | — | 12 | 63 | 22 | 6 | 2.5 | 8 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. The most common profile in its group this season — 139 of 200 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2023 class View Anthony Bynum's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 98 | 10 | 48 | 21 | 7 | 2.5 | 3 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate14.6% bottom 50th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 93rd percentile among FBS IDLs, up from the 66th | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 92 | 11 | 33 | 21 | 11 #74 FBS | 3 | 4 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate33.3% 98th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 89th percentile to the 98th among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 95 | 11 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate15.8% 55th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Zeion Simpson-Smith's full player page | |||||||
| 91 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 9 | 11 | 89 | 48 | 41 | 2.5 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume89 91th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate2.8% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile our readBounce-Back: his CFB Index score shows a real arc: 67th percentile among FBS LBs, fell to 38th, now back up to 78th | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 58 | 10 | 38 | 19 | 19 | 0.5 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.3% 83th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate1.3% bottom 13th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Korey Smith's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 35 | 7 | 37 | 14 | 23 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 2 | 1 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.4% 84th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume37 bottom 31th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 8th percentile to the 48th among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Thumper | 11 | 11 | 35 | 21 | 14 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate18.6% 90th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate12.9% 98th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Brandon Buckner's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 46 | 10 | 35 | 20 | 15 | 10 | 3.5 | 2 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate28.6% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate10.0% 92th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Reggie Johnson's full player page | |||||||||
| 3 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 31 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Centerfielder | 22 | 9 | 37 | 4 | 3 #56 FBS | 1.5 | 0.5 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate10.8% 65th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Juwon Gaston's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 18 | 10 | 36 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 14th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Kalen Woods's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 7 | 11 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume36 bottom 39th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Brendon Harris's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 25 | 10 | 36 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 141 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.1% bottom 40th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jackson Lowe's full player page | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 2 | 10 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ball HawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. 44 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate24.1% 86th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View De'Arre McDonald's full player page | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 21 | 11 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ball HawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. 44 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate24.1% 86th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 48th percentile among FBS CBs, up from the 16th | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 39 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 14th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Christofer Noble's full player page | |||||||
| 12 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Press Corner | 15 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Press CornerLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. 43 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'3" 96th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Devan Carlisle's full player page | |||||||
| 27 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 34 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 99 | 12 | 11/14 | 78.6 | 27/27 | 60 | 50 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Complete | 32 | 12 | 66 | 2943 | 44.6 | 66 | 29 | 6 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Centerfielder | 22 | 9 | 9 | 208 | 23.1 | 0 | 43 |
| +0.07 EPA/play | 29 | 7 | 8 | 139 | 17.4 | 0 | 32 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satellite Back · +0.04 EPA/play | 9 | 11 | 8 | 64 | 8 | 0 | 26 |
| Centerfielder | 22 | 9 | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 0 | 15 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+16 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #141 | #140 | -16.5 | Austin Peay | L 14–34 133 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #175 | #38 | +28.5 | @Wisconsin | L 10–42 116 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #158 | #130 | +9.5 | @Nevada | W 14–13 135 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #148 | #86 | +2.5 | Marshall | L 28–42 117 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #169 | #159 | +7.5 | @Kennesaw State | L 16–24 130 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| 7 | Oct 8 | #167 | #139 | +3 | Missouri State | L 20–22 129 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
| 9 | Oct 22 | #179 | #111 | +8 | @Delaware | L 28–31 152 | 1-6 | 0-3 |
| 10 | Oct 29 | #167 | #89 | +4.5 | Jacksonville State | L 21–24 137 | 1-7 | 0-4 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #168 | #144 | -1.5 | Florida International | L 30–56 144 | 1-8 | 0-5 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #197 | #119 | +13.5 | @Western Kentucky | L 26–42 146 | 1-9 | 0-6 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #197 | #209 | -7 | Sam Houston | W 31–17 131 | 2-9 | 1-6 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #184 | #198 | +3.5 | @New Mexico State | W 31–24 150 | 3-9 | 2-6 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29 | @New Mexico State | W 31–24 | 459 | 1 | 30:33 | +0.170 | 44.2% | 111.6% | One-score win |
| Nov 22 | Sam Houston | W 31–17 | 460 | 0 | 29:25 | +0.318 | 52.9% | 112.4% | Best success rate |
| Nov 15 | @Western Kentucky | L 26–42 | 541 | 0 | 26:12 | +0.291 | 41.7% | 173.9% | Defense's roughest night |
| Nov 8 | Florida International | L 30–56 | 364 | 3 | 31:33 | +0.098 | 39.7% | 114.9% | |
| Oct 29 | Jacksonville State | L 21–24 | 319 | 1 | 27:00 | +0.119 | 34.6% | 155.4% | One-score loss |
| Oct 22 | @Delaware | L 28–31 | 384 | 2 | 27:05 | +0.171 | 48.6% | 104.2% | One-score loss |
| Oct 8 | Missouri State | L 20–22 | 366 | 0 | 29:18 | +0.136 | 47.8% | 109.2% | One-score loss |
| Sep 27 | @Kennesaw State | L 16–24 | 440 | 2 | 38:59 | +0.136 | 44.9% | 101.8% | One-score loss |
| Sep 20 | Marshall | L 28–42 | 373 | 1 | 23:13 | +0.335 | 35.4% | 184.2% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 13 | @Nevada | W 14–13 | 352 | 1 | 31:10 | +0.080 | 42.7% | 98.7% | One-score win |
| Sep 6 | @Wisconsin | L 10–42 | 241 | 1 | 29:17 | +0.050 | 40.2% | 132.0% | Blowout loss |
| Aug 30 | Austin Peay | L 14–34 | 153 | 0 | 21:25 | -0.151 | 28.8% | 110.5% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Season average (12 games) | 371 | 1.0 | +0.146 | 41.8% | 125.8% | ||||
Middle Tennessee fields a limited pass-first offense behind a porous defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
39th percentile quality, 52nd percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 48th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 69th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
69th percentile success on standard downs, 47th on passing downs — a 22-point gap between the two.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 42nd percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 42nd — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.15; 65th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.04. The widest gap came in week 1: -0.15 raw vs. -0.03 adjusted.
Middle Tennessee reads strongest in rushing epa allowed (top 24%) and explosive plays (top 51%); the crux lives in passing epa allowed, where Middle Tennessee sits at the 4th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · Middle Tennessee
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Middle Tennessee · 2018-present
53% home win rate vs 30% on the road. margin runs +13.8 better at home. Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium seats 30,788, averaging 43% full (13,126 attendance, 23 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Jekail Middlebrook and Rickey Hunt split the carries (143/180 vs 37/180) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Myles Butler (WR) and Hunter Tipton (TE) split the targets (65/109 vs 44/109) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
What changed
Play-calling barely moved on the change — every rate held within a few points.
The biggest shift: 4th-down go rate moved up 6 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Season by season
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, Middle Tennessee’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (66.9% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 173-play sample) — mid-pack, 90 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
67°F average kickoff temp; 8% of games had measurable precipitation; 7 mph average wind.
Based on 66 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
Middle Tennessee's 2014–2025 record is 67-80. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 1911 · 62 seasons · .428 win rate
Rick Stockstill ran Middle Tennessee for 18 years and left the program with bowl trips, a Hawaii Bowl title, and a reputation for occasionally walking into a bigger stadium and walking out with a win. Derek Mason is 6-18 in two seasons since. Murfreesboro is trying to remember which of those is the real program.
The Stockstill era defined what Middle Tennessee could be: not a program that overachieves relative to talent, but one with a stable identity. Multiple bowl trips. A 2018 Hawaii Bowl championship. A reputation as the Conference USA team that showed up to play the Vanderbilts and Syracuses of the non-conference schedule and sometimes came home with a scalp. Kevin Byard became an NFL All-Pro safety out of Floyd Stadium. The Blue Raiders had a floor, and the floor was real.
Stockstill was let go after the 2023 season. Derek Mason, his replacement, went 3-9 in 2024 and 3-9 again in 2025 — 2-6 in Conference USA in year two, the program sitting at the bottom half of a league the Stockstill era had made it a fixture in. Six wins in two seasons is the kind of stretch that changes what a fanbase believes is structurally possible. Mason still has the job entering 2026, which means he gets a third year to show the 6-18 start is a valley, not a new baseline.
The 2026 season asks the specific question the past two years have deferred: is there enough of the Stockstill foundation remaining that the right adjustments produce a bowl-eligible fall? Murfreesboro doesn't need a marquee run to answer it — six wins and a bowl game restores the argument that the program Stockstill built survived the transition. Fewer than that and the conversation turns to whether Mason is the right person to find it.
Resourceful, opportunistic Conference USA football — built on doing more with less and being harder to beat than recruiting rankings suggest. MTSU's best teams under Stockstill were defined by defensive physicality and an efficient offense that didn't try to be something it wasn't. Mason's teams have not yet established a clear scheme identity, which is part of the 2026 question. The portal has been the primary roster-building tool across both Mason seasons.
Middle Tennessee 2016–2025. Slipping -0.4 rungs across the last 10 seasons. Slope -0.21 rungs / year — moving down the prestige scale.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 3-9
Middle Tennessee: Below .500 in FBS play. The rebuild bar.
Conference USA Standing · 2025
Middle Tennessee is 8th of 10 in the Conference USA at 2-6. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kennesaw State | 6-1 |
| 2 | Jacksonville State | 6-2 |
| 3 | Western Kentucky | 5-2 |
| 4 | Florida International | 5-3 |
| 5 | Missouri State | 4-2 |
| 6 | Delaware | 2-4 |
| 7 | Liberty | 2-4 |
| 8 | Middle Tennessee | 2-6 |
| 9 | New Mexico State | 1-5 |
| 10 | Sam Houston | 1-5 |
Coaching Era · Middle Tennessee
Derek Mason in year 3 of the rebuild. The methodology is taking shape.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 2006
Rick Stockstill's 2006-2024 tenure — the longest sustained head-coach run in Middle Tennessee history — produced multiple bowl appearances + Conference USA championships + sustained G5 competitive cycles. Stockstill's 18+ year tenure is rare in modern G5 coaching; the era defines the program's modern identity.
since 1933
Floyd Stadium (built 1933, expanded multiple times) — Middle Tennessee's permanent on-campus venue with 31,000 capacity — anchors the program. The 1933-era construction + on-campus location + Murfreesboro setting + the brick-and-concrete architecture create a venue distinct from larger flagship-state programs.
since 2000s
'Raider Up' — Middle Tennessee's defiance-rooted fan mantra — captures the C-USA-stalwart identity. The phrase appears in tweets + recruiting + alumni events + the Blue Raider mascot-context creates permanent identity unique among Tennessee G5 programs.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
A bowl championship in the heart of the Stockstill era
A 25-23 win over San Diego State — the program's most recent bowl glory
2023
The end of an 18-year tenure opens the unsteady post-Stockstill chapter
Wound
Moment of the Year · Middle Tennessee · 2025
Week 13 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2022 — win 23-25 (away). Last 5 postseason: 3-2.
NFL Draft Pipeline
2026–20261 picks last 5 cycles. Roster development still maturing.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Hired for 2026: Anthony Scelfo — not yet reflected in on-field data.
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
Middle Tennessee · Next-Season Outcome Band
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Fanbase Health Index · Middle Tennessee · high confidence
2025 stat leaders
How They Play · 2025
Most Similar Programs · Middle Tennessee
Season Standing · 2025 · 3-9
Coaching Era · Middle Tennessee
Moment of the Year · Middle Tennessee · 2025
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
NFL Draft Pipeline