Conference USA · Derek Mason, year 3 (8-19) · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · 30,788 · 16,166 avg in 2026
LastW 27–20 vs Nevada · Sat Sep 19 · Roman Gagliano 173 pass yds, 2 TD, 14 rush yds
Nextat Jacksonville State · Sat Sep 26 · 7 pm ET · AmFirst Stadium · Jacksonville State by 7 · series 0-3, lost the last 3 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 22 · through week 3
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #133 | #254 | -22.5✓ | Murray State | W 38–14 97 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #136 | #24 | +11.5✓ | @Marshall | L 26–28 130 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #128 | #177 | +3.5✓ | Nevada | W 27–20 126 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #124 | #62 | +7 | @Jacksonville State | |||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #126 | #82 | @Kansas | ||||
| 7 | Oct 13 | Delaware | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 20 | @Florida International | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 28 | Kennesaw State | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Western Kentucky | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Liberty | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Sam Houston | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | New Mexico State |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 | Nevada | W 27–20 | 330 | 0 | 34:28 | +0.154 | 36.2% | 126.3% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | @Marshall | L 26–28 | 352 | 1 | 32:46 | +0.169 | 42.9% | 103.7% | One-score loss |
| Sep 5 | Murray State | W 38–14 | 396 | 0 | 25:42 | +0.402 | 50.0% | 130.0% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (3 games) | 359 | 0.3 | +0.242 | 43.0% | 120.0% | ||||
Middle Tennessee spent eighteen years as Rick Stockstill's steady program — the Murfreesboro stalwart that occasionally ambushed a power — and now, two coaches and two 3-9 seasons later, is trying to remember how to be that again.
Fans remember the Saturdays the Blue Raiders walked into a bigger program's stadium and won, and bristle that the national take treats Murfreesboro as background — a program that has, more than…
The season in chapters
What fans said
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 3-9 · last season
✓ measured from 12 games · ranks are among Conference USA teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Warming. 4-6 over the last 10, and won the last one.
It’s a great opportunity to continue to talk about the legacy of America, how resilient we are and really how sports plays a big part in that
Next Sep 26
vs Jacksonville State · away
~ our read on style
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-22
the open questiondo the new coordinators fit the roster?
Derek Mason enters his third season with a 3-9 losing record, raising questions about whether the coordinator-driven reshaping can elevate Middle Tennessee beyond its current Conference USA floor.
our readfront page
Myles Butler is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
our readdeveloping
Hunter Tipton is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
Landon Collins is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
Myles Butler is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
Nahzae Cox is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
Outcome band · Middle Tennessee · 2026
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Only 9 of 177 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Middle Tennessee is the Conference USA program whose Rick Stockstill 2006-2024 era + Floyd Stadium + 2018 Hawaii Bowl championship define what historic-Tennessee-G5-football looks like.
IOL Brennan Smith transfer commits from Mississippi State
IOL room churned 10 in, 4 out and still had a hole after Guevara walked — Smith's SEC practice reps at Mississippi State are the kind of depth upgrade that stops a 16-point SP+ drop from getting worse up front.
DL Victory Vaka transfer commits from Western Kentucky
DL room lost Shakai Woods and sits at a net-negative after portal churn — Vaka's lateral Conference USA jump fills a gap Derek Mason can't afford to leave open with pressure already building at S and a class ranked #119.
$16M renovation to Floyd Stadium
$16M into Floyd Stadium while the roster sits 119th nationally and safety depth is already a pressure point — Mason's betting infrastructure confidence can paper over some real personnel gaps.
Top 3 commits
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
FL leads the 2026 class with 9 commits. National footprint reaching 7 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
84 signees across 14 states, 2023-2026. TN leads the pull.
That is 6.9% of every high-school FBS signee TN produced over those cycles — second only to Tennessee, 15 signees back. The full map →
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Middle Tennessee player grew up 247 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 106 of 112 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Recovering 67% of the fumbles they've forced — running hot vs. the ~48% league rate.
4 of 6 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.
The penalty battle is a wash: 27 penalties committed vs. 20 drawn on opponents.
199 penalty yards committed vs. 179 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Outcome band · Middle Tennessee · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026