Middle Tennessee beats Delaware 33-30
Team pages: Delaware · Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee beat Delaware 33-30. Share this game
We had Delaware favored. Middle Tennessee won.
Next: Delaware beat Missouri State 61-38, Tue Oct 20
Next: Middle Tennessee beat Florida International 26-23, Tue Oct 20
Top comment in the game thread
I appreciate this announcer for calling the INT into TD like it's a primetime game, genuinely
How it swung
The turning point: Bell intercepted by Williams at the MTSU40, returned 30 yards, illegal block in back on Mtsu (Q4, 1:51). Middle Tennessee went from 63% to 95% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Middle Tennessee a 39% chance, and the closing betting line (Middle Tennessee was a 1.5-point underdog) put it at 45%.
Down to 19% in the fourth quarter, Middle Tennessee came back to win.
Up to 81% in the fourth quarter, then Delaware lost it.
Middle Tennessee · Q1 3:25Quarterback catches a touchdown
Delaware · Q2 0:20Middle Tennessee 33-30 DelawareMiddle Tennessee wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Delaware 30-33 Middle TennesseeDelaware lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The four plays that swung it
- 1Q2 0:20Graves 15-yd TD pass to Bell, blocked, Delaware goes ahead 16-12Middle Tennessee 67% → 42% (−25)
- 2Q3 2:10Gagliano 18-yd TD pass to Clifton, Middle Tennessee goes ahead 26-23Middle Tennessee 42% → 62% (+20)
- 3Q4 9:57Bell 23-yd TD pass to Roberts, Delaware goes ahead 30-26Middle Tennessee 53% → 23% (−30)
- 4Q4 1:51InterceptionPenaltyBell intercepted by Williams at the MTSU40, returned 30 yards, illegal block in back on MtsuMiddle Tennessee 63% → 95% (+32)
The four plays that swung it
- 1Q2 0:20Graves 15-yd TD pass to Bell, blocked, Delaware goes ahead 16-12Delaware 33% → 58% (+25)
- 2Q3 2:10Gagliano 18-yd TD pass to Clifton, Middle Tennessee goes ahead 26-23Delaware 58% → 38% (−20)
- 3Q4 9:57Bell 23-yd TD pass to Roberts, Delaware goes ahead 30-26Delaware 47% → 77% (+30)
- 4Q4 1:51InterceptionPenaltyBell intercepted by Williams at the MTSU40, returned 30 yards, illegal block in back on MtsuDelaware 37% → 5% (−32)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q2 0:29Mullins intercepts Gagliano, Delaware scores, kick blocked, fans love the chaosQuoted at the top of the page.
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Delaware -1.5), at 54% for Middle Tennessee (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Every drive
Middle Tennessee scored on 5 of its 13 drives; Delaware on 5 of its 13.
Middle Tennessee’s drives are teal, Delaware’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Delaware’s side
Delaware’s best moment: Bell 23-yd TD pass to Roberts, Delaware goes ahead 30-26 (Q4 9:57). It lifted Delaware’s win chance by 30 points.
7 lead changes. Too close to call on 62% of plays.
What it cost
Delaware’s chance to win the conference fell from 2% to 1%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 12, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Middle Tennessee 33, Delaware 30
Middle Tennessee covered +1.5 by 4.5. The total, 63, went over 49.5.
| Team totals | Delaware | Middle Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 391 | 396 |
| Passing | 23 of 37, 321 yds | 22 of 33, 291 yds |
| Rushing | 30 for 70 yds | 25 for 105 yds |
| First downs | 22 | 22 |
| Third down | 5 of 12 | 2 of 9 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
| Penalties | 13 for 101 yds | 5 for 45 yds |
| Time of possession | 32:15 | 27:45 |
Delaware leaders
- Passing Tyler Bell 22 of 36, 306 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Viron Ellison Jr. 4 for 19 yds; Jo'Nathan Silver 6 for 19 yds
- Receiving Donovan Lewis 6 for 83 yds; Kaderris Roberts 3 for 45 yds, 1 TD
Middle Tennessee leaders
- Passing Roman Gagliano 22 of 32, 291 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Antonio Martin 11 for 48 yds; Terrence Brown Jr. 7 for 40 yds
- Receiving Koraun Perdue 4 for 103 yds, 1 TD; Neo Clifton 4 for 64 yds, 2 TD
No rain through the game
86° at kickoff · no rain recorded
The usual here around this date is 67°, with about 7 in 10 games between 58° and 78°.
October game-day temperatures at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Jump to
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Murfreesboro airport, 1.9 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Delaware · 2-3
Rated 41st in our preseason ratings, 95th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Middle Tennessee · 2-3
Rated 133rd in our preseason ratings, 165th now.
1-2 in its last three, including a 7-point win over Nevada as a 3.5-point underdog.
W 27-20 vs Nevada #182 of 668
won by 7 as a 3.5-point underdog
Week by week
Middle Tennessee
- Wk 1Wvs Murray State38-14
- Wk 2Lat Marshall26-28
- Wk 3Wvs Nevada27-20
- Wk 4Lat Jacksonville State13-23
- Wk 5Lat Kansas0-55
Delaware
- Wk 1Wvs Merrimack42-7
- Wk 2Lat Vanderbilt26-35
- Wk 3Wvs Coastal Carolina22-14
- Wk 4Lat Virginia3-42
- Wk 5Lvs Liberty14-30
Power rating by week
Delaware is rated 5.2 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Middle Tennessee’s explosive plays against Delaware, 50 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Middle Tennessee’s explosive plays against Delaware’s defense
Middle Tennessee offense, 74th percentile · Delaware defense, 24th
Delaware’s rushing EPA against Middle Tennessee’s defense
Delaware offense, 44th percentile · Middle Tennessee defense, 16th
Delaware’s success rate against Middle Tennessee’s defense
Delaware offense, 30th percentile · Middle Tennessee defense, 7th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Delaware leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2025 · Delaware won the last meeting
- 2025Delaware 31-28
Each line is Middle Tennessee’s chance to win through that meeting.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Middle Tennessee fans are in a better mood than Delaware fans (67th vs 23rd among FBS fanbases), even with Delaware favored.
Delaware favored by 1.5 · Total 49.5
How games like this usually go
Delaware by 1.5, on the usual path until 1:51 left in the fourth
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The total rose 1 point.
Total: 48.5 → 49.5
The books’ cut: 4.5%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Middle Tennessee is worth +5.7 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 78th percentile.
50% at home, 30% on the road against FBS opponents (19-19 home, 16-38 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.2 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 636 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Middle Tennessee8th0-1
- Delaware6th0-1