Liberty beats Delaware 30-14

Team pages: Liberty · Delaware

Liberty4-130
Delaware2-314Final
Fri, Oct 2 · Delaware Stadium, Newark, Del. · Crowd 19,182CBS Sports Network

Liberty beat Delaware 30-14.

We had Delaware favored. Liberty won.

Next: Liberty beat Sam Houston 35-3, Thu Oct 8

Next: Delaware lost to Middle Tennessee 33-30, Tue Oct 13

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Liberty a 47% chance, and the closing betting line (Liberty was a 7-point favorite) put it at 71%.

Favored the whole way: Liberty never fell below 61%.

Delaware never had better than a 39% chance.

FinalLiberty 30-14 DelawareLiberty wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q497% at halfLibertyWon30-14Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q497% at halfLibertyWon30-14Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q43% at halfLibertyLowest 0%Lost14-30Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q43% at halfLibertyLowest 0%Lost14-30Scores

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

Liberty’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Liberty -7), at 62% for Liberty (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Liberty’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 0:10Archield 12-yd runfumblesQ1, 0:10 · Liberty 6, Delaware 0▲7%Liberty’s chance to win, 66% to 73%▲7%Liberty’s chance to win, 66% to 73%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  2. Q2, 7:35Davis 56-yd TD runLiberty leads 13-0Q2, 7:35 · Liberty 13, Delaware 0▲5%Liberty’s chance to win, 82% to 87%▲5%Liberty’s chance to win, 82% to 87%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  3. Q2, 0:39Jones 3-yd TD runLiberty leads 20-0Q2, 0:39 · Liberty 20, Delaware 0▲3%Liberty’s chance to win, 94% to 97%▲3%Liberty’s chance to win, 94% to 97%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  4. Q3, 4:54Streeter intercepted by Spurlock at the Delaware 26returned 17 yardsQ3, 4:54 · Liberty 20, Delaware 020-0score after the play20-0score after the playWatch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  5. Q4, 11:19Davis 5-yd TD runLiberty leads 30-0Q4, 11:19 · Liberty 30, Delaware 030-0score after the play30-0score after the playWatch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  6. Q4, 9:38Streeter 58-yd TD pass to Lewiscuts it to 30-6Q4, 9:38 · Liberty 30, Delaware 630-6score after the play30-6score after the playWatch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  7. Q4, 1:35Bell 27-yd TD pass to McKinley-Danielscuts it to 30-14Q4, 1:35 · Liberty 30, Delaware 1430-14score after the play30-14score after the playWatch from this playCBS Sports College Football

Every drive

Liberty scored on 6 of its 13 drives; Delaware on 2 of its 13.

Liberty’s drives are teal, Delaware’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Liberty: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 29Field goalDelaware: Punt, from 75 yards out to 69PuntLiberty: Field goal, from 89 yards out to 11Field goalDelaware: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 8FumbleQ2Liberty: Punt, from 92 yards out to 40PuntDelaware: Punt, from 90 yards out to 77PuntLiberty: Touchdown, from 64 yards out to 0TouchdownDelaware: Punt, from 88 yards out to 54PuntLiberty: Touchdown, from 98 yards out to 0TouchdownDelaware: End of half, from 75 yards out to 7End of halfQ3Delaware: Punt, from 75 yards out to 65PuntLiberty: Punt, from 69 yards out to 43PuntDelaware: Punt, from 92 yards out to 91PuntLiberty: Punt, from 48 yards out to 55PuntDelaware: Interception, from 82 yards out to 83InterceptionLiberty: Field goal, from 9 yards out to 4Field goalDelaware: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 68DownsLiberty: Punt, from 32 yards out to 34PuntDelaware: Turned over on downs, from 79 yards out to 78DownsQ4Liberty: Touchdown, from 22 yards out to 0TouchdownDelaware: Touchdown, from 73 yards out to 0TouchdownLiberty: Punt, from 68 yards out to 68PuntDelaware: Turned over on downs, from 66 yards out to 48DownsLiberty: Turned over on downs, from 52 yards out to 33DownsDelaware: Touchdown, from 67 yards out to 0TouchdownLiberty: End of game, from 63 yards out to 35End of game

What it cost

Liberty’s chance to make the playoff rose from 2% to 3%.

Make the playoff

Liberty · won2% → ▲3%
Delaware · lost0% → 0%

Win the conference

Liberty · won36% → ▲43%36%▲ 43%
Delaware · lost8% → ▼4%8%▼ 4%

Before the game (September 30, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Liberty 30, Delaware 14

Liberty covered −7 by 9. The total, 44, stayed under 51.5.

LibertyDelawareTotal yardsLiberty 439Delaware 359439359Passing yardsLiberty 157Delaware 257157257Rushing yardsLiberty 282Delaware 102282102First downsLiberty 23Delaware 162316TurnoversLiberty 0Delaware 202Time of possessionLiberty 38:32Delaware 21:2838:3221:28
Team totalsLibertyDelaware
Total yards439359
Passing13 of 25, 157 yds17 of 35, 257 yds
Rushing47 for 282 yds25 for 102 yds
First downs2316
Third down6 of 162 of 13
Fourth down1 of 21 of 4
Turnovers02
Penalties9 for 105 yds5 for 50 yds
Time of possession38:3221:28

Liberty leaders

  • Passing Deshawn Purdie 13 of 20, 157 yds
  • Rushing Kam Davis 17 for 147 yds, 2 TD; Jaylon Coleman 5 for 53 yds
  • Receiving Makai Jackson 5 for 90 yds; Jamari Person 3 for 30 yds

Delaware leaders

  • Passing EJ Archield Jr. 10 of 19, 137 yds
  • Rushing Tyler Bell 6 for 32 yds; Kaderris Roberts 5 for 26 yds
  • Receiving Bryson Graves 3 for 69 yds; Donovan Lewis 2 for 61 yds, 1 TD

Rain for part of the game

72° at kickoff · 0.02 in of rain by radar over the stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Delaware favoredLiberty favored0%Win chanceDelawareRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Delaware favoredLiberty favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:51 left7:03 p.m.
Liberty 0, Delaware 0 · Delaware 38% to win
no rain · 73°
Purdie 3-yd pass to Jackson
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Wilmington Airport, 7.9 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Liberty · 3-1

Rated 83rd in our preseason ratings, 83rd now.

3-1 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 34-17 @ Coastal Carolina #170 of 668

won by 17 as a 2.5-point favorite

Liberty won 34-17 at Coastal Carolina. Chance to win started at 44%, low 25%, high better than 99%.

W 51-15 vs Ball State #157 of 668

won by 36 as a 14.5-point favorite

Liberty won 51-15 vs Ball State. Chance to win started at 88%, low 87%, high better than 99%.

W 24-23 vs Gardner-Webb #181 of 668

won by 1 as a 28.5-point favorite

Liberty won 24-23 vs Gardner-Webb. Chance to win started at 96%, low 36%, high 99%.

L 13-20 @ James Madison #86 of 668

lost by 7 as a 6-point underdog

Liberty lost 13-20 at James Madison. Chance to win started at 26%, low under 1%, high 33%.

Last 4 games

Delaware · 2-2

Rated 41st in our preseason ratings, 61st now.

2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 3-42 @ VirginiaTop 25 #38 of 668

lost by 39 as a 19.5-point underdog

Delaware lost 3-42 at Virginia. Chance to win started at 7%, low under 1%, high 8%.

W 22-14 vs Coastal Carolina #156 of 668

won by 8 as a 4.5-point favorite

Delaware won 22-14 vs Coastal Carolina. Chance to win started at 74%, low 31%, high better than 99%.

L 26-35 @ Vanderbilt #44 of 668

lost by 9 as a 20.5-point underdog

Delaware lost 26-35 at Vanderbilt. Chance to win started at 7%, low under 1%, high 21%.

W 42-7 vs Merrimack #216 of 668

won by 35 as a 31.5-point favorite

Delaware won 42-7 vs Merrimack. Chance to win started at 98%, low 97%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Delaware

Wk 1: W 42-7 vs Merrimack▲35MerrimackWk 2: L 26-35 at Vanderbilt▼9VanderbiltWk 3: W 22-14 vs Coastal Carolina▲8Coastal Car…Wk 4: L 3-42 at Virginia▼39Virginia
  • Wk 1Wvs Merrimack42-7
  • Wk 2Lat Vanderbilt26-35
  • Wk 3Wvs Coastal Carolina22-14
  • Wk 4Lat Virginia3-42

Liberty

Wk 1: L 13-20 at James Madison▼7James Madis…Wk 2: W 24-23 vs Gardner-Webb▲1Gardner-WebbWk 3: W 51-15 vs Ball State▲36Ball StateWk 4: W 34-17 at Coastal Carolina▲17Coastal Car…
  • Wk 1Lat James Madison13-20
  • Wk 2Wvs Gardner-Webb24-23
  • Wk 3Wvs Ball State51-15
  • Wk 4Wat Coastal Carolina34-17

Power rating by week

Delaware is rated 2.2 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

61-3Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4DelawareLiberty

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Delaware’s success rate against Liberty, 57 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Delaware’s explosive plays against Liberty’s defense

    54 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Delaware offense, 65th percentile · Liberty defense, 11th

  2. Delaware’s success rate against Liberty’s defense

    57 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Delaware offense, 30th percentile · Liberty defense, 87th

  3. Delaware’s passing EPA against Liberty’s defense

    50 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Delaware offense, 38th percentile · Liberty defense, 88th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

LibertyDelaware
EPA/play, offense
Liberty · 62Delaware · 38
EPA/play, defense
Liberty · 81Delaware · 25
Success rate, offense
Liberty · 84Delaware · 30
Success rate, defense
Liberty · 87Delaware · 31
Explosive-play rate, offense
Liberty · 18Delaware · 65
Explosive-play rate, defense
Liberty · 11Delaware · 24
Rush EPA, offense
Liberty · 64Delaware · 44
Rush EPA, defense
Liberty · 47Delaware · 55
Pass EPA, offense
Liberty · 71Delaware · 38
Pass EPA, defense
Liberty · 88Delaware · 28

The series

Liberty leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 2025 · Liberty won the last meeting

  • 2025Liberty 59-30Delaware lost 30-59 at Liberty. Chance to win started at 34%, low under 1%, high 45%.

Each line is Delaware’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Liberty fans are in a better mood than Delaware fans (47th vs 17th among FBS fanbases), even with Delaware favored.

  • Model · 53%
  • Line · 29%
  • Delaware fans · 17th
  • Liberty fans · 47th

Liberty favored by 7 · Total 51.5

How games like this usually go

Liberty by 7, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The total rose 1 point.

opened 50.5now 51.5

Total: 50.5 → 51.5

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Delaware is worth +9.8 points (±7.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 99th percentile.

60% at home, 14% on the road against FBS opponents (6-4 home, 2-12 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.6 at home vs. away over 55 games — inside the ±8.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 244 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Conference USA standings