Liberty beats Coastal Carolina 34-17
Team pages: Liberty · Coastal Carolina
Liberty beat Coastal Carolina 34-17. Share this game
We had Liberty favored. It won.
Next: Liberty beat Delaware 30-14, Fri Oct 2
Next: Coastal Carolina lost to Georgia Southern 31-24, Sat Oct 3
Top comment in the game thread
Coastal players must be pimps in the crib, seeing as they can't help but dropping it like it's hot
How it swung
The turning point: Purdie 33-yd TD pass to Jackson, ties it 17-17 (Q3, 13:10). Liberty went from 29% to 47% to win. Fans right then: “Bailey is on the level of his coach Grayson McCall” r/CFB game thread
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Liberty a 55% chance, and the closing betting line (Liberty was a 2.5-point favorite) put it at 58%.
Liberty won by 17, after dipping to 25% in the second quarter.
Up to 75% in the second quarter, then Coastal Carolina lost it.
Liberty · Q3 4:52Liberty 34-17 Coastal Carolina
Liberty wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Coastal Carolina 17-34 LibertyCoastal Carolina lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 13:10Purdie 33-yd TD pass to Jackson, ties it 17-17Liberty 29% → 47% (+18)
- 2Q4 12:064th and 1Vasko 8-yd TD run, Liberty leads 27-17Liberty 72% → 88% (+16)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 13:10Purdie 33-yd TD pass to Jackson, ties it 17-17Coastal Carolina 71% → 53% (−18)
- 2Q4 12:064th and 1Vasko 8-yd TD run, Liberty leads 27-17Coastal Carolina 28% → 12% (−16)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q1 13:00A pass floated in the air for a long time before being intercepted.
That thing just floated forever.
r/CFB game thread - Q1 5:19Coastal Carolina receivers drop passes from Bailey as Cavanillas ties the gameQuoted at the top of the page.
Who greased up Coastal WRs gloves
r/CFB game thread - Q2 0:24Bailey throws deep touchdown to Gardner as Coastal takes lead
Bailey is on the level of his coach Grayson McCall
r/CFB game thread - Q4 4:06Fans mock Coastal Carolina's execution as Deuce Bailey throws another incomplete pass
“What did you think about your teams execution tonight” “I’m in favor of it”
r/CFB game thread - Q4 2:26Coastal Carolina offensive line collapses as Bailey faces pressure and sacks
Coastal Carolina making Liberty look like a Tom Brady led Patriots team is a tradition that goes back to the Big South Conference, for those not aware. 😅
r/CFB game threadI came here to root for my fellow colored field dudes and hate watch liberty but man coastal is ass
r/CFB game thread - Q4 0:54Fans mock refs and Chadwell as Liberty kneels after Hopkins interception
Jamey Chadwell has a bright future as an HOA President
r/CFB game threadLmfaooo bro let it end 😂😂😂these refs man Matt Barrie is crashing out so bad hahaha
r/CFB game thread
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Liberty -2.5), at 44% for Liberty (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Liberty’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 13:00Bailey intercepted by Vessel at the Liberty 20Q1, 13:00 · Liberty 0, Coastal Carolina 0▲12%Liberty’s chance to win, 40% to 52%▲12%Liberty’s chance to win, 40% to 52%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q1, 10:02Purdie sacked for a 3-yd lossQ1, 10:02 · Liberty 0, Coastal Carolina 00-0score after the play0-0score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q1, 3:13Purdie 58-yd TD pass to JacksonLiberty goes ahead 10-3Q1, 3:13 · Liberty 10, Coastal Carolina 3▲6%Liberty’s chance to win, 59% to 65%▲6%Liberty’s chance to win, 59% to 65%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 9:29Purdie sacked for a 0-yd lossfumblesQ2, 9:29 · Liberty 10, Coastal Carolina 3▼10%Liberty’s chance to win, 82% to 72%▼10%Liberty’s chance to win, 82% to 72%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 5:26Bailey 24-yd TD pass to Hintonties it 10-10Q2, 5:26 · Liberty 10, Coastal Carolina 10▼6%Liberty’s chance to win, 64% to 58%▼6%Liberty’s chance to win, 64% to 58%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 0:24Bailey 39-yd TD pass to GardnerCoastal Carolina goes ahead 17-10Q2, 0:24 · Liberty 10, Coastal Carolina 17▼10%Liberty’s chance to win, 35% to 25%▼10%Liberty’s chance to win, 35% to 25%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 13:10Purdie 33-yd TD pass to Jacksonties it 17-17Q3, 13:10 · Liberty 17, Coastal Carolina 17▲18%Liberty’s chance to win, 29% to 47%▲18%Liberty’s chance to win, 29% to 47%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 8:30Jones 5-yd runfumblesQ4, 8:30 · Liberty 27, Coastal Carolina 17▼5%Liberty’s chance to win, 96% to 91%▼5%Liberty’s chance to win, 96% to 91%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 1:02Vasko 6-yd TD pass to DavisLiberty leads 34-17Q4, 1:02 · Liberty 34, Coastal Carolina 17▼6%Liberty’s chance to win, 96% to 90%▼6%Liberty’s chance to win, 96% to 90%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 0:33Bailey intercepted by Hopkins at the Liberty 49Q4, 0:33 · Liberty 34, Coastal Carolina 17▲6%Liberty’s chance to win, 94% to 100%▲6%Liberty’s chance to win, 94% to 100%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
Every drive
Liberty scored on 6 of its 12 drives; Coastal Carolina on 3 of its 11.
Liberty’s drives are teal, Coastal Carolina’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Coastal Carolina’s side
Coastal Carolina’s best moment: 34-yd punt (Q2 1:32). It lifted Coastal Carolina’s win chance by 12 points.
How Coastal Carolina fans took it: “Ryan Beard might be a fraud. I’ve never seen Coastal that poorly coached ever, and I spent 3 years with Tim Beck as the head coach” r/CFB game thread
“The espn commentators on this are so bad”
How fans reacted
Quiet
The jump was quiet; the crowd was quiet.
What it cost
Liberty’s chance to win the conference rose from 23% to 25%.
Win the conference
Before the game (September 23, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Liberty 34, Coastal Carolina 17
Liberty covered −2.5 by 14.5. The total, 51, went over 50.5.
| Team totals | Liberty | Coastal Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 485 | 292 |
| Passing | 12 of 18, 222 yds | 17 of 35, 213 yds |
| Rushing | 45 for 263 yds | 31 for 79 yds |
| First downs | 24 | 18 |
| Third down | 4 of 9 | 5 of 14 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
| Penalties | 9 for 90 yds | 15 for 117 yds |
| Time of possession | 32:41 | 27:19 |
Liberty leaders
- Passing Deshawn Purdie 11 of 16, 216 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Kam Davis 18 for 166 yds; Peyton Jones 14 for 66 yds
- Receiving Makai Jackson 5 for 149 yds, 2 TD; Jamari Person 1 for 34 yds
Coastal Carolina leaders
- Passing Deuce Bailey 17 of 34, 213 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing Deuce Bailey 15 for 31 yds; Dominic Knicely 5 for 25 yds
- Receiving Tristian Gardner 4 for 86 yds, 1 TD; Clayton Coppock 3 for 29 yds
No rain through the game
61° at kickoff · no rain recorded
The usual here around this date is 71°, with about 7 in 10 games between 65° and 77°.
September game-day temperatures at Brooks Stadium (SC)
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Jump to
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Conway airport, 6.5 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Liberty · 2-1
Rated 83rd in our preseason ratings, 99th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Coastal Carolina · 1-2
Rated 231st in our preseason ratings, 156th now, up 75 spots.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Coastal Carolina
- Wk 1Lat West Virginia24-31
- Wk 2Wvs Fordham45-7
- Wk 3Lat Delaware14-22
Liberty
- Wk 1Lat James Madison13-20
- Wk 2Wvs Gardner-Webb24-23
- Wk 3Wvs Ball State51-15
Power rating by week
Liberty is rated 4.1 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Coastal Carolina’s explosive plays against Liberty, 78 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Coastal Carolina’s explosive plays against Liberty’s defense
Coastal Carolina offense, 89th percentile · Liberty defense, 11th
Liberty’s success rate against Coastal Carolina’s defense
Liberty offense, 84th percentile · Coastal Carolina defense, 10th
Liberty’s passing EPA against Coastal Carolina’s defense
Liberty offense, 71st percentile · Coastal Carolina defense, 8th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Liberty leads the series 7-6
13 meetings since 2003 · Liberty won the last meeting
- 2020 · neutral siteLiberty 37-34
- 2016Coastal Carolina 42-7
- 2015Liberty 24-21
- 2014Liberty 15-14
- 2013Coastal Carolina 55-52
Each line is Coastal Carolina’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Liberty fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (25th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
Liberty favored by 2.5 · Total 50.5
How games like this usually go
Liberty by 2.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 4 points toward Liberty.
The total fell 4 points.
Spread: −1.5 → +2.5 · Total: 54.5 → 50.5
The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Coastal Carolina has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — +0.6 points (±4.4), home against road — 4th percentile of FBS.
58% at home, 53% on the road against FBS opponents (26-19 home, 26-23 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.1 at home vs. away over 102 games — inside the ±6.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 246 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Liberty 37, Coastal Carolina 34Fbc Mortgage Cure Bowl · Dec 26, 2020