Georgia Southern beats Coastal Carolina 31-24

Team pages: Georgia Southern · Coastal Carolina

Georgia Southern2-331
Coastal Carolina1-424Final
Sat, Oct 3 · Brooks Stadium (SC), Conway, S.C. · Crowd 20,576ESPN+

Georgia Southern beat Coastal Carolina 31-24.

We had Georgia Southern favored. It won.

Next: Georgia Southern lost to James Madison 27-24, Sat Oct 10

Next: Coastal Carolina beat Marshall 27-21, Sat Oct 10

How it swung

The turning point: Johnson 18-yd TD pass to Hilliard, Georgia Southern leads 10-0 (Q1, 2:37). Georgia Southern went from 57% to 85% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Georgia Southern a 65% chance, and the closing betting line (Georgia Southern was a 2.5-point favorite) put it at 58%.

The edge changed hands 4 times before Georgia Southern won it.

The edge changed hands 4 times and Coastal Carolina came out on the wrong end.

FinalGeorgia Southern 31-24 Coastal CarolinaGeorgia Southern wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q483% at halfGeorgia SouthernWon31-2412+28+16Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q483% at halfGeorgia SouthernWon31-2412Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q417% at halfGeorgia SouthernLost24-3112−28−16Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q417% at halfGeorgia SouthernLost24-3112Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 2:37Johnson 18-yd TD pass to Hilliard, Georgia Southern leads 10-0Georgia Southern 57% → 85% (+28)
  2. 2Q4 14:14Johnson 16-yd TD pass to Helms, Georgia Southern goes ahead 23-17Georgia Southern 57% → 73% (+16)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 2:37Johnson 18-yd TD pass to Hilliard, Georgia Southern leads 10-0Coastal Carolina 43% → 15% (−28)
  2. 2Q4 14:14Johnson 16-yd TD pass to Helms, Georgia Southern goes ahead 23-17Coastal Carolina 43% → 27% (−16)
Georgia Southern’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Georgia Southern -2.5), at 51% for Georgia Southern (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Georgia Southern’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 2:37Johnson 18-yd TD pass to HilliardGeorgia Southern leads 10-0Q1, 2:37 · Georgia Southern 10, Coastal Carolina 0▲28%Georgia Southern’s chance to win, 57% to 85%▲28%Georgia Southern’s chance to win, 57% to 85%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  2. Q2, 7:14Bryan 67-yd TD runGeorgia Southern leads 17-3Q2, 7:14 · Georgia Southern 17, Coastal Carolina 3▼8%Georgia Southern’s chance to win, 74% to 66%▼8%Georgia Southern’s chance to win, 74% to 66%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  3. Q2, 0:23Washington 73-yd punt return TDcuts it to 17-10Q2, 0:23 · Georgia Southern 17, Coastal Carolina 10▼10%Georgia Southern’s chance to win, 76% to 66%▼10%Georgia Southern’s chance to win, 76% to 66%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  4. Q3, 3:16Bailey 9-yd TD pass to Lawrenceties it 17-17Q3, 3:16 · Georgia Southern 17, Coastal Carolina 17▼16%Georgia Southern’s chance to win, 70% to 54%▼16%Georgia Southern’s chance to win, 70% to 54%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  5. Q4, 14:14Johnson 16-yd TD pass to HelmsGeorgia Southern goes ahead 23-17Q4, 14:14 · Georgia Southern 23, Coastal Carolina 17▲16%Georgia Southern’s chance to win, 57% to 73%▲16%Georgia Southern’s chance to win, 57% to 73%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  6. Q4, 4:44Bailey sacked for a 9-yd lossQ4, 4:44 · Georgia Southern 31, Coastal Carolina 1731-17score after the play31-17score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  7. Q4, 0:57Bailey 29-yd TD pass to Englishcuts it to 31-24Q4, 0:57 · Georgia Southern 31, Coastal Carolina 24▲5%Georgia Southern’s chance to win, 95% to 100%▲5%Georgia Southern’s chance to win, 95% to 100%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference

Every drive

Georgia Southern scored on 5 of its 13 drives; Coastal Carolina on 3 of its 11.

Georgia Southern’s drives are teal, Coastal Carolina’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Coastal Carolina: Punt, from 75 yards out to 72PuntGeorgia Southern: Field goal, from 65 yards out to 24Field goalCoastal Carolina: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 1FumbleGeorgia Southern: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownCoastal Carolina: Punt, from 75 yards out to 73PuntGeorgia Southern: Missed field goal, from 61 yards out to 39Missed FGQ2Coastal Carolina: Field goal, from 60 yards out to 34Field goalGeorgia Southern: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownCoastal Carolina: Fumble, from 79 yards out to 0FumbleGeorgia Southern: Punt returned for a touchdown, from 80 yards out to 75Punt TDGeorgia Southern: End of half, from 91 yards out to 75End of halfQ3Georgia Southern: Punt, from 77 yards out to 45PuntCoastal Carolina: Punt, from 80 yards out to 79PuntGeorgia Southern: Punt, from 70 yards out to 61PuntCoastal Carolina: Touchdown, from 82 yards out to 0TouchdownGeorgia Southern: Touchdown, from 73 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Coastal Carolina: Punt, from 75 yards out to 79PuntGeorgia Southern: Touchdown, from 62 yards out to 0TouchdownCoastal Carolina: Punt, from 75 yards out to 53PuntGeorgia Southern: Punt, from 87 yards out to 79PuntCoastal Carolina: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 73DownsGeorgia Southern: Missed field goal, from 27 yards out to 26Missed FGCoastal Carolina: Touchdown, from 74 yards out to 0TouchdownGeorgia Southern: End of game, from 47 yards out to 29End of game

From Coastal Carolina’s side

Coastal Carolina’s best moment: Bailey 9-yd TD pass to Lawrence, ties it 17-17 (Q3 3:16). It lifted Coastal Carolina’s win chance by 16 points.

What it cost

Georgia Southern’s chance to win the conference rose from 4% to 5%.

Win the conference

Georgia Southern · won4% → ▲5%4%▲ 5%
Coastal Carolina · lost1% → ▼0%

Before the game (October 2, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Georgia Southern 31, Coastal Carolina 24

Georgia Southern covered −2.5 by 4.5. The total, 55, went over 53.5.

Georgia SouthernCoastal CarolinaTotal yardsGeorgia Southern 407Coastal Carolina 370407370Passing yardsGeorgia Southern 241Coastal Carolina 228241228Rushing yardsGeorgia Southern 166Coastal Carolina 142166142First downsGeorgia Southern 18Coastal Carolina 201820TurnoversGeorgia Southern 0Coastal Carolina 202Time of possessionGeorgia Southern 26:34Coastal Carolina 33:2626:3433:26
Team totalsGeorgia SouthernCoastal Carolina
Total yards407370
Passing19 of 31, 241 yds19 of 33, 228 yds
Rushing26 for 166 yds36 for 142 yds
First downs1820
Third down4 of 133 of 13
Fourth down1 of 12 of 3
Turnovers02
Penalties5 for 51 yds10 for 110 yds
Time of possession26:3433:26

Georgia Southern leaders

  • Passing Max Johnson 18 of 29, 233 yds, 3 TD
  • Rushing Weston Bryan 8 for 88 yds, 1 TD; David Mbadinga 8 for 55 yds
  • Receiving River Helms 4 for 89 yds, 1 TD; Alex Taylor 6 for 77 yds, 1 TD

Coastal Carolina leaders

  • Passing Deuce Bailey 19 of 33, 228 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Dominic Knicely 16 for 74 yds; Deuce Bailey 14 for 58 yds
  • Receiving Karmello English 5 for 81 yds, 1 TD; Clayton Coppock 2 for 41 yds

No rain through the game

73° at kickoff · no rain recorded

October game-day temperatures at Brooks Stadium (SC)

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Coastal Carolina favoredGeorgia Southern favored0%Win chanceCoastal CarolinaRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Coastal Carolina favoredGeorgia Southern favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 2:37 left7:33 p.m.
Georgia Southern 10, Coastal Carolina 0 · Coastal Carolina 15% to win
no rain · 73°
Johnson 18-yd TD pass to Hilliard, Georgia Southern leads 10-0

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Conway airport, 6.5 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Georgia Southern · 1-3

Rated 99th in our preseason ratings, 84th now, up 15 spots.

1-3 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 28-42 vs HoustonTop 25 #12 of 668

lost by 14 as a 17.5-point underdog

Georgia Southern lost 28-42 vs Houston. Chance to win started at 16%, low under 1%, high 20%.

L 27-31 @ Jacksonville State #62 of 668

lost by 4 as a 3.5-point underdog

Georgia Southern lost 27-31 at Jacksonville State. Chance to win started at 41%, low 4%, high 89%.

L 7-22 @ ClemsonTop 25 #19 of 668

lost by 15 as a 20.5-point underdog

Georgia Southern lost 7-22 at Clemson. Chance to win started at 6%, low under 1%, high 8%.

W 31-0 vs Charleston Southern #219 of 668

won by 31 as a 28.5-point favorite

Last 4 games

Coastal Carolina · 1-3

Rated 231st in our preseason ratings, 170th now, up 61 spots.

1-3 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 17-34 vs Liberty #83 of 668

lost by 17 as a 2.5-point underdog

Coastal Carolina lost 17-34 vs Liberty. Chance to win started at 56%, low under 1%, high 75%.

L 14-22 @ Delaware #47 of 668

lost by 8 as a 4.5-point underdog

Coastal Carolina lost 14-22 at Delaware. Chance to win started at 26%, low under 1%, high 69%.

W 45-7 vs Fordham #253 of 668

won by 38 as a 36.5-point favorite

Coastal Carolina won 45-7 vs Fordham. Chance to win started at 99%, low 98%, high better than 99%.

L 24-31 @ West Virginia #188 of 668

lost by 7 as a 21-point underdog

Coastal Carolina lost 24-31 at West Virginia. Chance to win started at 6%, low under 1%, high 6%.

Week by week

Coastal Carolina

Wk 1: L 24-31 at West Virginia▼7W. VirginiaWk 2: W 45-7 vs Fordham▲38FordhamWk 3: L 14-22 at Delaware▼8DelawareWk 4: L 17-34 vs Liberty▼17Liberty
  • Wk 1Lat West Virginia24-31
  • Wk 2Wvs Fordham45-7
  • Wk 3Lat Delaware14-22
  • Wk 4Lvs Liberty17-34

Georgia Southern

Wk 1: W 31-0 vs Charleston Southern▲31Charleston…Wk 2: L 7-22 at Clemson▼15ClemsonWk 3: L 27-31 at Jacksonville State▼4Jacksonvill…Wk 4: L 28-42 vs Houston▼14Houston
  • Wk 1Wvs Charleston Southern31-0
  • Wk 2Lat Clemson7-22
  • Wk 3Lat Jacksonville State27-31
  • Wk 4Lvs Houston28-42

Power rating by week

Georgia Southern is rated 6.3 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

1-6-12Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Coastal CarolinaGeorgia Southern

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Georgia Southern’s passing EPA against Coastal Carolina, 52 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Georgia Southern’s passing EPA against Coastal Carolina’s defense

    52 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Georgia Southern offense, 60th percentile · Coastal Carolina defense, 8th

  2. Georgia Southern’s success rate against Coastal Carolina’s defense

    40 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Georgia Southern offense, 50th percentile · Coastal Carolina defense, 10th

  3. Georgia Southern’s explosive plays against Coastal Carolina’s defense

    38 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Georgia Southern offense, 43rd percentile · Coastal Carolina defense, 81st

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Georgia SouthernCoastal Carolina
EPA/play, offense
Georgia Southern · 49Coastal Carolina · 47
EPA/play, defense
Georgia Southern · 58Coastal Carolina · 27
Success rate, offense
Georgia Southern · 50Coastal Carolina · 32
Success rate, defense
Georgia Southern · 66Coastal Carolina · 10
Explosive-play rate, offense
Georgia Southern · 43Coastal Carolina · 89
Explosive-play rate, defense
Georgia Southern · 71Coastal Carolina · 81
Rush EPA, offense
Georgia Southern · 29Coastal Carolina · 52
Rush EPA, defense
Georgia Southern · 79Coastal Carolina · 35
Pass EPA, offense
Georgia Southern · 60Coastal Carolina · 50
Pass EPA, defense
Georgia Southern · 22Coastal Carolina · 8

The series

Georgia Southern leads the series 8-4

12 meetings since 2006 · Georgia Southern has won the last 3

Coastal Carolina wonGeorgia Southern won2006: Georgia Southern by 172007: Georgia Southern by 82010: Georgia Southern by 172017: Coastal Carolina by 112018: Georgia Southern by 242019: Georgia Southern by 32020: Coastal Carolina by 142021: Coastal Carolina by 202022: Coastal Carolina by 42023: Georgia Southern by 102024: Georgia Southern by 202025: Georgia Southern by 520062025
  • 2025Georgia Southern 45-40Coastal Carolina lost 40-45 at Georgia Southern. Chance to win started at 34%, low 1%, high 40%.
  • 2024Georgia Southern 26-6Coastal Carolina lost 6-26 vs Georgia Southern. Chance to win started at 47%, low 1%, high 54%.
  • 2023Georgia Southern 38-28Coastal Carolina lost 28-38 at Georgia Southern. Chance to win started at 38%, low 1%, high 78%.
  • 2022Coastal Carolina 34-30Coastal Carolina won 34-30 vs Georgia Southern. Chance to win started at 72%, low 14%, high 90%.
  • 2021Coastal Carolina 28-8Coastal Carolina won 28-8 at Georgia Southern. Chance to win started at 86%, low 76%, high better than 99%.

Each line is Coastal Carolina’s chance to win through that meeting. Coastal Carolina is 2-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Coastal Carolina fans are in a better mood than Georgia Southern fans (85th vs 9th among FBS fanbases), even with Georgia Southern favored.

50-50Model 35% · Line 42%Coastal Carolina fans · 85thGeorgia Southern fans · 9thGeorgia SouthernCoastal Carolina

Georgia Southern favored by 2.5 · Total 53.5

How games like this usually go

Georgia Southern by 2.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 4 points toward Georgia Southern.

opened −1.5now +2.5

The total rose 1 point.

opened 52.5now 53.5

Spread: −1.5 → +2.5 · Total: 52.5 → 53.5

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm and dry. Feels like 77° at kickoff.

Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina · Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 · Brooks Stadium, Conway

  • 77°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 99weather score, Comfortable
  • Tiedfor the best of the day's 9 kickoff times

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 9 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's nine kickoff times. At Brooks Stadium that day, a 11 am kickoff would have scored 78, against 99 at 7:30 pm.

  • 11 am: 78, Mixed
  • noon: 79, Mixed
  • 12:45 pm: 80, Mixed
  • 2 pm: 83, Mixed
  • 3:30 pm: 89, Mixed
  • 4:15 pm: 92, Comfortable
  • 6 pm: 99, Comfortable
  • 7:30 pm: 99, Comfortable (this game)
  • 8 pm: 99, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Coastal Carolina has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — +0.6 points (±4.4), home against road — 4th percentile of FBS.

58% at home, 53% on the road against FBS opponents (26-19 home, 26-23 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.1 at home vs. away over 102 games — inside the ±6.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 186 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Sun Belt standings