Coastal Carolina beats Marshall 27-21

Team pages: Coastal Carolina · Marshall

Coastal Carolina2-427
Marshall3-321Final
Sat, Oct 10 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium, Huntington, W.Va. · Crowd 23,029ESPN+

Coastal Carolina beat Marshall 27-21.

We had Marshall favored. Coastal Carolina won.

Next: Coastal Carolina lost to App State 35-32, Fri Oct 16

Next: Marshall beat South Alabama 20-13, Tue Oct 20

How it swung

The turning point: Lee-Knicely 70-yd TD run, Coastal Carolina leads 20-0 (Q3, 14:42). Coastal Carolina went from 72% to 95% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Coastal Carolina a 24% chance, and the closing betting line (Coastal Carolina was a 4.5-point underdog) put it at 36%.

The edge changed hands 5 times before Coastal Carolina won it.

Up to 73% in the first quarter, then Marshall lost it.

Blocked field goalQ4 9:13
FinalCoastal Carolina 27-21 MarshallCoastal Carolina wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: 0.2 in of rain
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q472% at halfCoastal CarolinaMarshallLowest 27%Won27-2112+22+23ScoresBlocked field goal0.09 in per 10 minutes, the peakRain
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q472% at halfMarshallLowest 27%Won27-2112ScoresBlocked field goal0.09 in per 10 minutes, the peakRain
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q428% at halfMarshallCoastal CarolinaLowest 0%High 73%Lost21-2712−22−23ScoresBlocked field goal0.09 in per 10 minutes, the peakRain
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q428% at halfMarshallLowest 0%High 73%Lost21-2712ScoresBlocked field goal0.09 in per 10 minutes, the peakRain

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 14:20InterceptionDel Rio-Wilson intercepted by Jackson at the Marshall 48Coastal Carolina 31% → 53% (+22)
  2. 2Q3 14:42Lee-Knicely 70-yd TD run, Coastal Carolina leads 20-0Coastal Carolina 72% → 95% (+23)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 14:20InterceptionDel Rio-Wilson intercepted by Jackson at the Marshall 48Marshall 69% → 47% (−22)
  2. 2Q3 14:42Lee-Knicely 70-yd TD run, Coastal Carolina leads 20-0Marshall 28% → 5% (−23)
Coastal Carolina’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Marshall -4.5), at 37% for Coastal Carolina (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.
The blue strip under the chart is the weather at the airport. 0.2 in of rain is more than fell in 98% of games since 2018. Measured at Huntington/tri Stat airport, 8.3 miles away. Full conditions below.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Coastal Carolina’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 14:50Del Rio-Wilson intercepted by Wayne at the Marshall 44Q1, 14:50 · Coastal Carolina 0, Marshall 0▲10%Coastal Carolina’s chance to win, 27% to 37%▲10%Coastal Carolina’s chance to win, 27% to 37%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  2. Q1, 11:36Bailey intercepted by Clark-Glover at the Marshall 8Q1, 11:36 · Coastal Carolina 0, Marshall 0▼12%Coastal Carolina’s chance to win, 42% to 30%▼12%Coastal Carolina’s chance to win, 42% to 30%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  3. Q2, 14:20Del Rio-Wilson intercepted by Jackson at the Marshall 48Q2, 14:20 · Coastal Carolina 3, Marshall 0▲22%Coastal Carolina’s chance to win, 31% to 53%▲22%Coastal Carolina’s chance to win, 31% to 53%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  4. Q2, 12:31Bailey 7-yd TD pass to EnglishCoastal Carolina leads 10-0Q2, 12:31 · Coastal Carolina 10, Marshall 0▲4%Coastal Carolina’s chance to win, 53% to 57%▲4%Coastal Carolina’s chance to win, 53% to 57%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  5. Q3, 14:42Lee-Knicely 70-yd TD runCoastal Carolina leads 20-0Q3, 14:42 · Coastal Carolina 20, Marshall 0▲23%Coastal Carolina’s chance to win, 72% to 95%▲23%Coastal Carolina’s chance to win, 72% to 95%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  6. Q3, 11:47Allen-Hendrix 2-yd TD runCoastal Carolina leads 27-0Q3, 11:47 · Coastal Carolina 27, Marshall 0▲2%Coastal Carolina’s chance to win, 95% to 97%▲2%Coastal Carolina’s chance to win, 95% to 97%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  7. Q3, 2:46Price 50-yd TD runcuts it to 27-7Q3, 2:46 · Coastal Carolina 27, Marshall 7▼5%Coastal Carolina’s chance to win, 97% to 92%▼5%Coastal Carolina’s chance to win, 97% to 92%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  8. Q4, 2:52Turner 9-yd TD pass to Pricecuts it to 27-14Q4, 2:52 · Coastal Carolina 27, Marshall 14▼7%Coastal Carolina’s chance to win, 100% to 93%▼7%Coastal Carolina’s chance to win, 100% to 93%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  9. Q4, 2:14Turner 19-yd TD pass to Sweeneycuts it to 27-21Q4, 2:14 · Coastal Carolina 27, Marshall 21▼4%Coastal Carolina’s chance to win, 94% to 90%▼4%Coastal Carolina’s chance to win, 94% to 90%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference

Every drive

Coastal Carolina scored on 5 of its 13 drives; Marshall on 3 of its 13.

Coastal Carolina’s drives are teal, Marshall’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Marshall: Interception, from 68 yards out to 68InterceptionCoastal Carolina: Interception, from 44 yards out to 20InterceptionMarshall: Fumble, from 92 yards out to 90FumbleCoastal Carolina: Field goal, from 10 yards out to 9Field goalMarshall: Interception, from 80 yards out to 6InterceptionCoastal Carolina: Punt, from 80 yards out to 71PuntMarshall: Interception, from 77 yards out to 52InterceptionQ2Coastal Carolina: Touchdown, from 40 yards out to 0TouchdownMarshall: Punt, from 79 yards out to 58PuntCoastal Carolina: Field goal, from 80 yards out to 22Field goalMarshall: Punt, from 75 yards out to 57PuntCoastal Carolina: Punt, from 80 yards out to 75PuntMarshall: End of half, from 62 yards out to 26End of halfQ3Coastal Carolina: Touchdown, from 70 yards out to 0TouchdownCoastal Carolina: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownMarshall: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 10DownsCoastal Carolina: Punt, from 90 yards out to 61PuntMarshall: Touchdown, from 87 yards out to 0TouchdownCoastal Carolina: Punt, from 78 yards out to 64PuntMarshall: Turned over on downs, from 72 yards out to 48DownsQ4Coastal Carolina: Missed field goal, from 52 yards out to 34Missed FGMarshall: Fumble, from 66 yards out to 2FumbleCoastal Carolina: Punt, from 98 yards out to 99PuntMarshall: Touchdown, from 34 yards out to 0TouchdownMarshall: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownCoastal Carolina: End of game, from 46 yards out to 26End of game

From Marshall’s side

Marshall’s best moment: 48-yd punt (Q1 1:39). It lifted Marshall’s win chance by 12 points.

What it cost

Marshall’s chance to win the conference fell from 4% to 1%.

Win the conference

Coastal Carolina · won0% → 0%
Marshall · lost4% → ▼1%

Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Coastal Carolina 27, Marshall 21

Coastal Carolina covered +4.5 by 10.5. The total, 48, stayed under 57.5.

Coastal CarolinaMarshallTotal yardsCoastal Carolina 308Marshall 505308505Passing yardsCoastal Carolina 73Marshall 28473284Rushing yardsCoastal Carolina 235Marshall 221235221First downsCoastal Carolina 16Marshall 251625TurnoversCoastal Carolina 1Marshall 616Time of possessionCoastal Carolina 30:51Marshall 29:0930:5129:09
Team totalsCoastal CarolinaMarshall
Total yards308505
Passing8 of 18, 73 yds21 of 37, 284 yds
Rushing45 for 235 yds41 for 221 yds
First downs1625
Third down3 of 129 of 15
Fourth down1 of 10 of 2
Turnovers16
Penalties2 for 20 yds5 for 32 yds
Time of possession30:5129:09

Coastal Carolina leaders

  • Passing Deuce Bailey 8 of 18, 73 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Dominic Knicely 25 for 169 yds, 1 TD; Jaden Allen-Hendrix 8 for 39 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Dominic Knicely 3 for 42 yds; Karmello English 2 for 15 yds, 1 TD

Marshall leaders

  • Passing Zion Turner 18 of 27, 219 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Judah Price 12 for 124 yds, 1 TD; Khalil Wilkins 7 for 45 yds
  • Receiving Adrian Norton 4 for 77 yds; Owen Sweeney 5 for 57 yds, 1 TD

Rain for part of the game

60° at kickoff · 0.2 in of rain · wind 9 mph from the east-northeast, mostly across the field, gusts to 23

0.2 in of rain is more than fell in 98% of games since 2018.

Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 0.00 inThis game: 0.2 in02.0 in
Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 0.00 inThis game: 0.2 in02.0 in

Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.

The usual here around this date is 65°, with about 7 in 10 games between 52° and 77°.

October game-day temperatures at Joan C. Edwards Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Marshall favoredCoastal Carolina favored0%Win chanceMarshallRaininches per 10 min0.2 inWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Marshall favoredCoastal Carolina favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.2 inWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 4:21 left9:54 p.m.
Coastal Carolina 27, Marshall 7 · Marshall 9% to win
rain 0.09 in per 10 minutes · wind 8 mph from the northeast, gusts to 16 · 59°
Allen-Hendrix 1-yd run

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Huntington/tri Stat airport, 8.3 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Coastal Carolina · 1-4

Rated 231st in our preseason ratings, 169th now, up 62 spots.

Three straight losses.

L 24-31 vs Georgia Southern #93 of 668

lost by 7 as a 2.5-point underdog

Coastal Carolina lost 24-31 vs Georgia Southern. Chance to win started at 49%, low under 1%, high 52%.

L 17-34 vs Liberty #83 of 668

lost by 17 as a 2.5-point underdog

Coastal Carolina lost 17-34 vs Liberty. Chance to win started at 56%, low under 1%, high 75%.

L 14-22 @ Delaware #47 of 668

lost by 8 as a 4.5-point underdog

Coastal Carolina lost 14-22 at Delaware. Chance to win started at 26%, low under 1%, high 69%.

W 45-7 vs Fordham #253 of 668

won by 38 as a 36.5-point favorite

Coastal Carolina won 45-7 vs Fordham. Chance to win started at 99%, low 98%, high better than 99%.

L 24-31 @ West Virginia #188 of 668

lost by 7 as a 21-point underdog

Coastal Carolina lost 24-31 at West Virginia. Chance to win started at 6%, low under 1%, high 6%.

Last three games

Marshall · 3-2

Rated 23rd in our preseason ratings, 73rd now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 17-45 @ James Madison #39 of 668

lost by 28 as a 14.5-point underdog

Marshall lost 17-45 at James Madison. Chance to win started at 11%, low under 1%, high 25%.

W 36-35 vs Gardner-Webb #142 of 668

won by 1 as a 24.5-point favorite

Marshall won 36-35 vs Gardner-Webb. Chance to win started at 96%, low 20%, high better than 99%.

W 30-24 @ Missouri State #97 of 668

won by 6 as a 4-point favorite

Marshall won 30-24 at Missouri State. Chance to win started at 48%, low 47%, high 93%.

W 28-26 vs Middle Tennessee #128 of 668

won by 2 as an 11.5-point favorite

Marshall won 28-26 vs Middle Tennessee. Chance to win started at 84%, low 34%, high better than 99%.

L 0-45 @ Penn StateTop 25 #38 of 668

lost by 45 as a 23.5-point underdog

Marshall lost 0-45 at Penn State. Chance to win started at 4%, low under 1%, high 4%.

Week by week

Marshall

Wk 1: L 0-45 at Penn State▼45Penn St.Wk 2: W 28-26 vs Middle Tennessee▲2M. Tenne…Wk 3: W 30-24 at Missouri State▲6Missouri…Wk 4: W 36-35 vs Gardner-Webb▲1Gardner-…Wk 5: L 17-45 at James Madison▼28James Ma…
  • Wk 1Lat Penn State0-45
  • Wk 2Wvs Middle Tennessee28-26
  • Wk 3Wat Missouri State30-24
  • Wk 4Wvs Gardner-Webb36-35
  • Wk 5Lat James Madison17-45

Coastal Carolina

Wk 1: L 24-31 at West Virginia▼7W. Virgi…Wk 2: W 45-7 vs Fordham▲38FordhamWk 3: L 14-22 at Delaware▼8DelawareWk 4: L 17-34 vs Liberty▼17LibertyWk 5: L 24-31 vs Georgia Southern▼7G. South…
  • Wk 1Lat West Virginia24-31
  • Wk 2Wvs Fordham45-7
  • Wk 3Lat Delaware14-22
  • Wk 4Lvs Liberty17-34
  • Wk 5Lvs Georgia Southern24-31

Power rating by week

Marshall is rated 7.3 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

11-1-13Wk 0Wk 3Wk 5MarshallCoastal Carolina

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Coastal Carolina’s explosive plays against Marshall, 72 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Coastal Carolina’s explosive plays against Marshall’s defense

    72 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Coastal Carolina offense, 89th percentile · Marshall defense, 17th

  2. Marshall’s success rate against Coastal Carolina’s defense

    48 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Marshall offense, 58th percentile · Coastal Carolina defense, 10th

  3. Coastal Carolina’s passing EPA against Marshall’s defense

    44 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Coastal Carolina offense, 50th percentile · Marshall defense, 6th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Coastal CarolinaMarshall
EPA/play, offense
Coastal Carolina · 47Marshall · 42
EPA/play, defense
Coastal Carolina · 27Marshall · 8
Success rate, offense
Coastal Carolina · 32Marshall · 58
Success rate, defense
Coastal Carolina · 10Marshall · 19
Explosive-play rate, offense
Coastal Carolina · 89Marshall · 21
Explosive-play rate, defense
Coastal Carolina · 81Marshall · 17
Rush EPA, offense
Coastal Carolina · 52Marshall · 35
Rush EPA, defense
Coastal Carolina · 35Marshall · 16
Pass EPA, offense
Coastal Carolina · 50Marshall · 46
Pass EPA, defense
Coastal Carolina · 8Marshall · 6

The series

Coastal Carolina leads the series 3-1

4 meetings since 2022 · Coastal Carolina won the last meeting

  • 2025Coastal Carolina 44-27Marshall lost 27-44 at Coastal Carolina. Chance to win started at 65%, low under 1%, high 89%.
  • 2024Marshall 31-19Marshall won 31-19 vs Coastal Carolina. Chance to win started at 65%, low 30%, high 94%.
  • 2023Coastal Carolina 34-6Marshall lost 6-34 at Coastal Carolina. Chance to win started at 50%, low under 1%, high 64%.
  • 2022Coastal Carolina 24-13Marshall lost 13-24 vs Coastal Carolina. Chance to win started at 46%, low under 1%, high 47%.

Each line is Marshall’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Marshall fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (72nd among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

  • Model · 76%
  • Line · 64%
  • Marshall fans · 72nd
  • Coastal Carolina fans · 66th

Marshall favored by 4.5 · Total 57.5

How games like this usually go

Marshall by 4.5, on the usual path until Q2 8:39

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1.5 points toward Marshall.

opened −3now −4.5

The total fell 1 point.

opened 58.5now 57.5

Spread: −3 → −4.5 · Total: 58.5 → 57.5

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Marshall is worth +1.8 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 16th percentile.

66% at home, 52% on the road against FBS opponents (29-15 home, 25-23 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.2 at home vs. away over 102 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 372 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Sun Belt standings